GRG在雷达对抗训练水平评估指标权重中的应用

在现代战争中,地对空雷达对抗日趋重要,对于地对空雷达对抗装备训练水平评估成为了亟待解决的问题.开展对地对空雷达对抗训练内容的分析, 构建了地对空雷达对抗训练水平评估指标体系,运用层次分析法确定个体指标权重,再将所有专家的个体指标权重集结为群体指标权重, 根据灰色关联度(GRG)计算各专家的个体指标权重与群体指标权重的接近程度从而确定专家权重,采用了权重自适应调整的方法调整专家权重和群体指标权重,最终确定指标权重.最后,用实例说明了该方法的实用性.     

基于ANP的装备质量管理风险评估模型

根据装备质量管理的特点对装备质量管理的风险因素进行了分析,依据指标体系的设计原则建立了装备质量管理风险评估的指标体系,并给出了基于网络层次分析法和粒子群优化算法的的装备质量管理风险评估指标权重值的确定方法.并给出了实例分析.     

基于ANP与模糊TOPSIS-CRITIC方法的不确定多属性决策模型

随着多属性决策问题的日益流行,处理决策问题的复杂程度也逐渐增加,针对其中权重不确定,难以量化各影响因素主观权重与客观权重以及指标排序不精确的问题,提出了一种将网络层次分析法(ANP)与模糊指标相关性的指标权重确定法(CRITIC)、逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)相结合的不确定多属性决策模型首先,在分别使用ANP方法和CRITIC法确定各影响因素的主观、客观权重的基础上计算指标的综合权重,然后应用模糊TOPSIS方法对备选方案进行贴进度排序最后,通过一个实例将计算结果同其他三种决策方法进行对比分析,验证了所提出的ANP与模糊TOPSIS-CRITIC方法的可靠性和有效性.     

基于灰色关联分析的航空装备技术保障能力评价模型

航空装备技术保障能力是组成航空兵战斗力的基本要素之一,其能力的高低直接影响到航空装备保障任务完成质量的优劣,因此对航空装备技术保障能力进行科学评价具有重要意义.在现有研究的基础上建立了航空装备技术保障能力评价指标体系,基于灰色关联分析方法提出了指标权重的确定方法,并利用灰色关联分析思想构建出航空装备技术保障能力评价模型,为航空装备技术保障能力评价提供量化分析模型,拓展了航空装备技术保障能力评价模型体系.     

一种新型的多属性决策权重计算方法

如何科学、合理地确定指标权重，关系到多属性决策结果的可靠性与正确性。现有多属性决策方法大多不能反映不同决策矩阵规范化方法对指标权重计算的影响，针对这一问题，本文提出了基于不同规范化矩阵确定指标权重的思想，进而推导了一种以全部方案总体效能最小为目标的指标权重模糊优化迭代算法。以向量规范法和线性变换法为例，对某战斗机性能多属性决策问题进行了权重计算。计算结果表明，该方法能够快速收敛到优化权重，从而为多属性决策的权重计算问题提供了新的解决方案。     

改进的PROMETHEE方法在招标中的应用研究

针对 PROMETHEE方法的局限性 ,对 PROMETHEE方法进行了改进 ,用效用函数取代了优先函数 ,提出了属性权重的确定方法 .应用改进的 PROMETHEE方法 ,对某装备招标中的 6个方案进行了评价 ,取得了较好的效果     

基于投影寻踪模型的装备保障性目标评估

应用投影寻踪法,对保障性目标评估标准进行分析,利用在每个级别范围内随机产生的样本,建立了投影寻踪模型,确定了保障性目标评估指标的权重系数,得到了投影特征值变化区域与分类级别的对应关系,对某型航空装备使用初期的保障性试验数据进行分析,得到了其使用初期的级别和评估等级.为实现装备保障性评估目标评估拓展了新的途径,提供了科学依据.     

装备采购费用估算在采购合同谈判中的应用

航天装备采购费用估算是航天装备采购管理工作的重要组成部分.采购合同谈判是航天装备采购工作的重要环节.本文研究在可靠性增长费用和供货方利润固定的情况下,如何确定采购费用的上限.该结果有利于航天装备采购部门在采购合同谈判时把握主动权,控制采购费用增长.     

基于FHW的火箭发动机环境载荷评估

针对固体火箭发动机环境载荷的诸多不确定性,提出了环境载荷FHW量化评估算法.对比分析了火箭发动机的典型环境条件及其影响,采用熵值法确定了指标权重,基于FHW方法建立了火箭发动机的环境载荷评估模型,根据环境因素的分布特征给出评估指标的隶属函数,并获取其相应的灰色关联系数.算例验证了不同环境载荷因素对火箭发动机的影响程度,结果表明FHW评估策略和算法简单易行、精度高,在装备环境载荷量化评估中具有参考和应用价值.     

基于ELECTRE-IN方法的装备战场威胁评估

针对ELECTRE法处理不确定的模糊信息能力弱的缺点,将ELECTRE-IN法拓展到了模糊环境下,用来进行装备战场的威胁评估,决策评估中涉及到的属性值与属性权重值等模糊信息以三角模糊数形式给出.首先根据三角模糊数互补判断矩阵完全一致性的概念,通过建立一个多层次非线性规划,求解出三角模糊数型的属性权重向量;其次集结决策者对各方案属性的评价,确定出模糊决策矩阵;最后按照模糊ELECTRE-IN方法的步骤进行威胁评估,得到决策方案的排序.     

模糊多属性决策在装备质量评价中的应用

从介绍装备质量的概念开始 ,揭示了装备质量评价的本质——模糊多属性决策 .建立了决策矩阵 ,采用层次分析法得到了各属性的权重 ,采用折衷型模糊多属性决策方法 ,在得到理想解与负理想解之后 ,计算了各方案与理想解和负理想解的欧几里得距离 ,并以远离负理想解为准则完成了装备方案的优选排序 .     

基于熵权多目标决策的方案评估方法研究

给出了一种基于熵权多目标决策的方案评估方法.该方法在只有判断矩阵而没有专家权重的情况下,对有多个评价指标的方案评估问题,通过多对象关于多指标的评价矩阵的熵权计算,对多个合理方案进行优选评估,得出了可信度较高的优选方案,并将这一方法应用在航空装备维修费效益评价实例中.     

基于单级供应关系的可修复航材存储策略模型研究

本研究单级供应关系下可修复航材存储量的确定，使用期望缺货数作为评价保障质量指标，将可修复航材的存储与飞机的保障有机地联系起来。建立了可修复航材存储策略模型，给出一种算法，此举可为可修复航材存储优化提供量化依据。     

空军消耗性航材储备优化模型研究

针对我军装备改型多以及部分消耗性航材长期储存容易变质失效的实际借鉴EOQ模型的思想,构建了消耗性航材储备模型.模型以总储备经费最小为目标,综合考虑了航材使用优先级以及航材储备中产生的各项费用,并从理论上证明了模型具有全局最优解.最后通过算例说明方法可行.     

Reliability Estimation of Optimal Viscoelastic Composite Shells in Critical-Time Calculations

The problem of reliability estimation for optimal viscoelastic composite shells in critical-time calculations is considered. The weight minimization of a viscoelastic composite shell, with constraints on deflections at the critical time, leads to a system deforming unstably, whose deflections grow in time with an increasing rate. A method for estimating the reliability of such shells in calculating the critical time is discussed. This time is regarded as a random variable depending on many, roughly equivalent, factors. An analysis of the reliability is carried out for different values of coefficients of variation, occurring in practice.     

数学模型在高校领军人才评审中的应用

教育评估的可靠性决定了评估结果的可信性,影响着教育评估的声誉和发展.结合高校领军人才评审探讨了数学可靠性模型在教育评估中的应用,通过建立数学可靠性模型,计算评审系统的可靠性,并结合可靠性计算结果分析了影响评审系统可靠性的因素.     

A dynamical systems model of intrauterine fetal growth

ABSTRACT

The underlying mechanisms for how maternal perinatal obesity and intrauterine environment influence foetal development are not well understood and thus require further understanding. In this paper, energy balance concepts are used to develop a comprehensive dynamical systems model for foetal growth that illustrates how maternal factors (energy intake and physical activity) influence foetal weight and related components (fat mass, fat-free mass, and placental volume) over time. The model is estimated from intensive measurements of foetal weight and placental volume obtained as part of Healthy Mom Zone (HMZ), a novel intervention for managing gestational weight gain in obese/overweight women. The overall result of the modelling procedure is a parsimonious system of equations that reliably predicts foetal weight gain and birth weight based on a sensible number of assessments. This model can inform clinical care recommendations as well as how adaptive interventions, such as HMZ, can influence foetal growth and birth outcomes.     

Enhancing software reliability modeling and prediction through the introduction of time-variable fault reduction factor

Over the past three decades, many software reliability models with different parameters, reflecting various testing characteristics, have been proposed for estimating the reliability growth of software products. We have noticed that one of the most important parameters controlling software reliability growth is the fault reduction factor (FRF) proposed by Musa. FRF is generally defined as the ratio of net fault reduction to failures experienced. During the software testing process, FRF could be influenced by many environmental factors, such as imperfect debugging, debugging time lag, etc. Thus, in this paper, we first analyze some real data to observe the trends of FRF, and consider FRF to be a time-variable function. We further study how to integrate time-variable FRF into software reliability growth modeling. Some experimental results show that the proposed models can improve the accuracy of software reliability estimation. Finally, sensitivity analyses of various optimal release times based on cost and reliability requirements are discussed. The analytic results indicate that adjusting the value of FRF may affect the release time as well as the development cost.     

NHPP software reliability model considering the uncertainty of operating environments with imperfect debugging and testing coverage

In this paper, we propose a testing-coverage software reliability model that considers not only the imperfect debugging (ID) but also the uncertainty of operating environments based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). Software is usually tested in a given control environment, but it may be used in different operating environments by different users, which are unknown to the developers. Many NHPP software reliability growth models (SRGMs) have been developed to estimate the software reliability measures, but most of the underlying common assumptions of these models are that the operating environment is the same as the developing environment. But in fact, due to the unpredictability of the uncertainty in the operating environments for the software, environments may considerably influence the reliability and software's performance in an unpredictable way. So when a software system works in a field environment, its reliability is usually different from the theory reliability, and also from all its similar applications in other fields. In this paper, a new model is proposed with the consideration of the fault detection rate based on the testing coverage and examined to cover ID subject to the uncertainty of operating environments. We compare the performance of the proposed model with several existing NHPP SRGMs using three sets of real software failure data based on seven criteria. Improved normalized criteria distance (NCD) method is also used to rank and select the best model in the context of a set of goodness-of-fit criteria taken all together. All results demonstrate that the new model can give a significant improved goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. Finally, the optimal software release time based on cost and reliability requirement and its sensitivity analysis are discussed.     

飞机退役时限及补充数量的预测研究

飞机的退役是航空装备管理中的重要问题之一.为科学合理地确定飞机退役时限,针对部队飞机使用情况,以某型飞机为例,对飞机的剩余寿命进行详细分析,应用统计学方法,探讨了飞机退役时限和数量的变化规律,在此基础上建立了飞机补充数量预测模型.并结合空军装备发展的实际,对飞机使用过程中的更新换代问题进行了探讨.