How does innovation''''s tail risk determine marginal tail risk of a stationary financial time series?

We discuss the relationship between the marginal tail risk probability and theinnovation's tail risk probability for some stationary financial time series models. We firstgive the main results on the tail behavior of a class of infinite weighted sums of randomvariables with heavy-tailed probabilities. And then, the main results are applied to threeimportant types of time series models; infinite order moving averages, the simple bilineartime series and the solutions of stochastic difference equations. The explicit formulasare given to describe how the marginal tail probabilities come from the innovation's tailprobabilities for these time series. Our results can be applied to the tail estimation of timeseries and are useful for risk analysis in finance.     

任意B值随机变量序列关于条件期望的一类强极限定理

利用随机变量的截尾方法和条件三级数定理,研究任意B值随机变量序列的极限性质,得到了一类关于条件期望的强极限定理和鞅差序列收敛定理,推广了与此相应的一些结果和若干经典的强大数定律.     

特殊重尾随机变量随机和的大偏差

文献[1]对于一些经典重尾随机变量的随机和大偏差作了有意义的讨论,本文则讨论了另外一些同样有用的重尾随机和的大偏差.     

Some Asymptotic Results for One-Sided Large Deviation Probabilities

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the sum of independent real random variables. We assume that the random variables are not identically distributed but the average of distribution functions of these random variables is equivalent to some heavy-tailed limit distribution function. An example with Pareto law as limit function is given.     

Precise large deviations for a customer-based individual risk model

In this paper,we propose a customer-based individual risk model,in which potential claims by customers are described as i.i.d.heavy-tailed random variables,but different insurance policy holders are allowed to have different probabilities to make actual claims.Some precise large deviation results for the prospective-loss process are derived under certain mild assumptions,with emphasis on the case of heavy-tailed distribution function class ERV(extended regular variation).Lundberg type limiting results on the finite time ruin probabilities are also investigated.     

复合二项过程风险模型的精细大偏差及有限时间破产概率

讨论基于客户到来的复合二项过程风险模型.在该风险模型中,假设索赔额序列是独立同分布的重尾随机变量序列,不同保单发生实际索赔的概率可以不同,则在索赔额服从ERV的条件下,得到了损失过程的精细大偏差;进一步地,得到了有限时间破产概率的Lundberg极限结果.     

Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Log-ACD Models

This paper studies a nonlinear least squares estimation method for the logarithmic autoregressive conditional duration (Log-ACD) model. We establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality for our estimator under weak moment conditions suitable for applications involving heavy-tailed distributions. We also discuss inference for the Log-ACD model and Log-ACD models with exogenous variables. Our results can be easily translated to study Log-GARCH models. Both simulation study and real data analysis are conducted to show the usefulness of our results.     

On a family of risk measures based on proportional hazards models and tail probabilities

In this paper, we explore a class of tail variability measures based on distances among proportional hazards models. Tail versions of some well-known variability measures, such as the Gini mean difference, the Wang right tail deviation and the cumulative residual entropy are, up to a scale factor, in this class. These tail variability measures are combined with tail conditional expectation to generate premium principles that are especially useful to price heavy-tailed risks. We study their properties, including stochastic consistency and bounds, as well as the coherence of the associated premium principles.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Conditional Quantiles with Functional Covariate

Estimation of the extreme conditional quantiles with functional covariate is an important problem in quantile regression. The existing methods, however, are only applicable for heavy-tailed distributions with a positive conditional tail index. In this paper, we propose a new framework for estimating the extreme conditional quantiles with functional covariate that combines the nonparametric modeling techniques and extreme value theory systematically. Our proposed method is widely applicable, no matter whether the conditional distribution of a response variable Y given a vector of functional covariates X is short, light or heavy-tailed. It thus enriches the existing literature.     

任意信源关于赌博系统的一类Shannon-McMillan定理

采用网微分法和分析运算方法来研究赌博系统中任意随机变量序列随机条件熵的一类强极限定理,并由此得出若干任意信源的Shannon-Mcmillan定理.将已有的关于离散信源的结果加以推广.     

Multivariate Discrete Distributions with a Product-Type Dependence

A discrete multivariate probability distribution for dependent random variables, which contains the Poisson and Geometric conditionals distributions as particular cases, is characterized by means of conditional expectations of arbitrary one-to-one functions. Independence of the random variables is also characterized in terms of these conditional expectations. For certain exchangeable and partially exchangeable random variables with a joint distribution of this form it is shown that maximum likelihood estimates coincide with the simple method of moments estimates, suggesting that these models offer a pragmatic way to analyze certain dependent data.     

Model-free conditional independence feature screening for ultrahigh dimensional data

Feature screening plays an important role in ultrahigh dimensional data analysis. This paper is concerned with conditional feature screening when one is interested in detecting the association between the response and ultrahigh dimensional predictors (e.g., genetic makers) given a low-dimensional exposure variable (such as clinical variables or environmental variables). To this end, we first propose a new index to measure conditional independence, and further develop a conditional screening procedure based on the newly proposed index. We systematically study the theoretical property of the proposed procedure and establish the sure screening and ranking consistency properties under some very mild conditions. The newly proposed screening procedure enjoys some appealing properties. (a) It is model-free in that its implementation does not require a specification on the model structure; (b) it is robust to heavy-tailed distributions or outliers in both directions of response and predictors; and (c) it can deal with both feature screening and the conditional screening in a unified way. We study the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure by Monte Carlo simulations and further illustrate the proposed method through two real data examples.     

Conditional versions of limit theorems for conditionally associated random variables

Relation between association and conditional association is answered, several examples show that the association of random variables does not imply the conditional association, and vice versa. Several fundamental properties of conditional associated random variables are developed, which extend the corresponding ones under the non-conditioning setup. By means of these properties, some conditional Hájek-Rényi type inequalities, a conditional strong law of large numbers and a conditional central limit theorem stated in terms of conditional characteristic functions are established, which are conditional versions of the earlier results for associated random variables, respectively. In addition, some lemmas in the context are of independent interest.     

Identification of graphical models for nonignorable nonresponse of binary outcomes in longitudinal studies

In this paper, we use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with temporal structure to describe models of nonignorable nonresponse mechanisms for binary outcomes in longitudinal studies, and we discuss identification of these models under an assumption that the sequence of variables has the first-order Markov dependence, that is, the future variables are independent of the past variables conditional on the present variables. We give a stepwise approach for checking identifiability of DAG models. For an unidentifiable model, we propose adding completely observed variables such that this model becomes identifiable.     

Pair-Copula Bayesian Networks

Pair-copula Bayesian networks (PCBNs) are a novel class of multivariate statistical models, which combine the distributional flexibility of pair-copula constructions (PCCs) with the parsimony of conditional independence models associated with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We are first to provide generic algorithms for random sampling and likelihood inference in arbitrary PCBNs as well as for selecting orderings of the parents of the vertices in the underlying graphs. Model selection of the DAG is facilitated using a version of the well-known PC algorithm that is based on a novel test for conditional independence of random variables tailored to the PCC framework. A simulation study shows the PC algorithm’s high aptitude for structure estimation in non-Gaussian PCBNs. The proposed methods are finally applied to modeling financial return data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Conditional limit theorems for conditionally negatively associated random variables

From the ordinary notion of negative association for a sequence of random variables, a new concept called conditional negative association is introduced. The relation between negative association and conditional negative association is answered, that is, the negative association does not imply the conditional negative association, and vice versa. The basic properties of conditional negative association are developed, which extend the corresponding ones under the non-conditioning setup. By means of these properties, some Rosenthal type inequalities for maximum partial sums of such sequences of random variables are derived, which extend the corresponding results for negatively associated random variables. As applications of these inequalities, some conditional mean convergence theorems, conditionally complete convergence results and a conditional central limit theorem stated in terms of conditional characteristic functions are established. In addition, some lemmas in the context are of independent interest.     

风险模型中重尾随机变量和的若干大偏差结果

进一步研究随机变量部分和与随机和的大偏差,其中S(n)=∑ni=1Xi,S(t)=∑N(t)i=1Xi(t>0).{Xn,n≥1}是一个独立同分布的随机变量(未必是非负的)序列具有共同的分布F(定义于R上)和有限期望μ=EX1.{N(t),t≥0}是一个非负的整数值的随机变量的更新计数过程且与{Xn,n≥1}相互独立.本文在假定F∈C条件下,进一步推广并改进了由Klüppelberg等和Kaiw等人给出的一些大偏差结果.这些结果可应用到某些金融保险方面的一些特定的问题中去.     

Efficient simulation and conditional functional limit theorems for ruinous heavy-tailed random walks

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed random walks. Our changes of measures are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture form. We exploit our methodology to achieve two types of results. First, we construct Monte Carlo estimators that are strongly efficient (i.e. have bounded relative mean squared error as the event of interest becomes rare). These estimators are used to estimate both rare-event probabilities of interest and associated conditional expectations. We emphasize that our techniques allow us to control the expected termination time of the Monte Carlo algorithm even if the conditional expected stopping time (under the original distribution) given the event of interest is infinity–a situation that sometimes occurs in heavy-tailed settings. Second, the mixture family serves as a good Markovian approximation (in total variation) of the conditional distribution of the whole process given the rare event of interest. The convenient form of the mixture family allows us to obtain functional conditional central limit theorems that extend classical results in the literature.     

Convergent Bounds for Stochastic Programs with Expected Value Constraints

This article describes a bounding approximation scheme for convex multistage stochastic programs (MSP) that constrain the conditional expectation of some decision-dependent random variables. Expected value constraints of this type are useful for modelling a decision maker’s risk preferences, but they may also arise as artifacts of stage-aggregation. We develop two finite-dimensional approximate problems that provide bounds on the (infinite-dimensional) original problem, and we show that the gap between the bounds can be made smaller than any prescribed tolerance. Moreover, the solutions of the approximate MSPs give rise to a feasible policy for the original MSP, and this policy’s optimality gap is shown to be smaller than the difference of the bounds. The considered problem class comprises models with integrated chance constraints and conditional value-at-risk constraints. No relatively complete recourse is assumed.