Bootstrapping the nonparametric ARCH regression model

In this paper we introduce the nonparametric AR(1)–ARCH(1) model and show weak consistency of the Nadaraya–Watson estimators for the model. We propose a residual and a wild bootstrap method and prove weak consistency of the bootstrap estimators.     

Reducing variance in nonparametric surface estimation

We suggest a method for reducing variance in nonparametric surface estimation. The technique is applicable to a wide range of inferential problems, including both density estimation and regression, and to a wide variety of estimator types. It is based on estimating the contours of a surface by minimising deviations of elementary surface estimates along a quadratic curve. Once a contour estimate has been obtained, the final surface estimate is computed by averaging conventional surface estimates along a portion of the contour. Theoretical and numerical properties of the technique are discussed.     

Robust estimation for nonparametric generalized regression

This paper focuses on nonparametric regression estimation for the parameters of a discrete or continuous distribution, such as the Poisson or Gamma distributions, when anomalous data are present. The proposal is a natural extension of robust methods developed in the setting of parametric generalized linear models. Robust estimators bounding either large values of the deviance or of the Pearson residuals are introduced and their asymptotic behaviour is derived. Through a Monte Carlo study, for the Poisson and Gamma distributions, the finite properties of the proposed procedures are investigated and their performance is compared with that of the classical ones. A resistant cross-validation method to choose the smoothing parameter is also considered.     

A bias corrected nonparametric regression estimator

In this article, we propose a new method of bias reduction in nonparametric regression estimation. The proposed new estimator has asymptotic bias order h⁴, where h is a smoothing parameter, in contrast to the usual bias order h² for the local linear regression. In addition, the proposed estimator has the same order of the asymptotic variance as the local linear regression. Our proposed method is closely related to the bias reduction method for kernel density estimation proposed by Chung and Lindsay (2011). However, our method is not a direct extension of their density estimate, but a totally new one based on the bias cancelation result of their proof.     

Optimal testing for additivity in multiple nonparametric regression

We consider the problem of testing for additivity in the standard multiple nonparametric regression model. We derive optimal (in the minimax sense) non- adaptive and adaptive hypothesis testing procedures for additivity against the composite nonparametric alternative that the response function involves interactions of second or higher orders separated away from zero in L ²([0, 1] ^d )-norm and also possesses some smoothness properties. In order to shed some light on the theoretical results obtained, we carry out a wide simulation study to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed hypothesis testing procedures and compare them with a series of other tests for additivity available in the literature.     

核估计量、窗宽与置信带

本文对非参数回归曲线提出一种新的核估计量和窗宽选择方法及其修正偏倚置信带 .仅利用该回归曲线的估计量和选择数据的窗宽构造这些置信带 .证明了在大样本的意义下 ,这种修正偏倚置信带和Bonferroni型带具有渐近修正范围概率的性质 .并且通过MonteCarlo实验研究了它在小样本中的性质 .在模拟研究中已经证明 ,这种修正偏倚置信带方法是很有效的 ,即使在样本容量n=1 0 0的情况下 ,它也接近给定的范围概率 .     

A prior near-ignorance Gaussian process model for nonparametric regression

This paper proposes a prior near-ignorance model for regression based on a set of Gaussian Processes (GP). GPs are natural prior distributions for Bayesian regression. They offer a great modeling flexibility and have found widespread application in many regression problems. However, a GP requires the prior elicitation of its mean function, which represents our prior belief about the shape of the regression function, and of the covariance between any two function values.In the absence of prior information, it may be difficult to fully specify these infinite dimensional parameters. In this work, by modeling the prior mean of the GP as a linear combination of a set of basis functions and assuming as prior for the combination coefficients a set of conjugate distributions obtained as limits of truncate exponential priors, we have been able to model prior ignorance about the mean of the GP. The resulting model satisfies translation invariance, learning and, under some constraints, convergence, which are desirable properties for a prior near-ignorance model. Moreover, it is shown in this paper how this model can be extended to allow for a weaker specification of the GP covariance between function values, by letting each basis function to vary in a set of functions.Application to hypothesis testing has shown how the use of this model induces the capability of automatically detecting when a reliable decision cannot be made based on the available data.     

Estimating and Visualizing Conditional Densities

Abstract

We consider the kernel estimator of conditional density and derive its asymptotic bias, variance, and mean-square error. Optimal bandwidths (with respect to integrated mean-square error) are found and it is shown that the convergence rate of the density estimator is order n ^–2/3. We also note that the conditional mean function obtained from the estimator is equivalent to a kernel smoother. Given the undesirable bias properties of kernel smoothers, we seek a modified conditional density estimator that has mean equivalent to some other nonparametric regression smoother with better bias properties. It is also shown that our modified estimator has smaller mean square error than the standard estimator in some commonly occurring situations. Finally, three graphical methods for visualizing conditional density estimators are discussed and applied to a data set consisting of maximum daily temperatures in Melbourne, Australia.     

Robust nonparametric regression estimation

In this paper we define a robust conditional location functional without requiring any moment condition. We apply the nonparametric proposals considered by C. Stone (Ann. Statist. 5 (1977), 595–645) to this functional equation in order to obtain strongly consistent, robust nonparametric estimates of the regression function. We give some examples by using nearest neighbor weights or weights based on kernel methods under no assumptions whatsoever on the probability measure of the vector (X,Y). We also derive strong convergence rates and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimates.     

A quantile-copula approach to conditional density estimation

A new kernel-type estimator of the conditional density is proposed. It is based on an efficient quantile transformation of the data. The proposed estimator, which is based on the copula representation, turns out to have a remarkable product form. Its large-sample properties are considered and comparisons in terms of bias and variance are made with competitors based on nonparametric regression. A comparative simulation study is also provided.     

Polynomial Regression with Censored Data based on Preliminary Nonparametric Estimation

Consider the polynomial regression model , where σ²(X)=Var(Y|X) is unknown, and ε is independent of X and has zero mean. Suppose that Y is subject to random right censoring. A new estimation procedure for the parameters β₀,...,β _p is proposed, which extends the classical least squares procedure to censored data. The proposed method is inspired by the method of Buckley and James (1979, Biometrika, 66, 429–436), but is, unlike the latter method, a noniterative procedure due to nonparametric preliminary estimation of the conditional regression function. The asymptotic normality of the estimators is established. Simulations are carried out for both methods and they show that the proposed estimators have usually smaller variance and smaller mean squared error than the Buckley–James estimators. The two estimation procedures are also applied to a medical and an astronomical data set.     

Optimal kernel estimation of spot volatility of stochastic differential equations

A unified framework to optimally select the bandwidth and kernel function of spot volatility kernel estimators is put forward. The proposed models include not only classical Brownian motion driven dynamics but also volatility processes that are driven by long-memory fractional Brownian motions or other Gaussian processes. We characterize the leading order terms of the mean squared error, which in turn enables us to determine an explicit formula for the leading term of the optimal bandwidth. Central limit theorems for the estimation error are also obtained. A feasible plug-in type bandwidth selection procedure is then proposed, for which, as a sub-problem, a new estimator of the volatility of volatility is developed. The optimal selection of the kernel function is also investigated. For Brownian Motion type volatilities, the optimal kernel turns out to be an exponential function, while, for fractional Brownian motion type volatilities, easily implementable numerical results to compute the optimal kernels are devised. Simulation studies further confirm the good performance of the proposed methods.     

A comparison of kriging with nonparametric regression methods

“Kriging” is the name of a parametric regression method used by hydrologists and mining engineers, among others. Features of the kriging approach are that it also provides an error estimate and that it can conveniently be employed also to estimate the integral of the regression function. In the present work, the kriging method is described and some of its statistical characteristics are explored. Also, some extensions of the nonparametric regression approach are made so that it too displays the kriging features. In particular, a “data driven” estimator of the expected square error is derived. Theoretical and computational comparisons of the kriging and nonparametric regressors are offered.     

Optimal multivariate quota-share reinsurance: A nonparametric mean-CVaR framework

In this paper, the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is adopted to measure the total loss of multiple lines of insurance business and two nonparametric estimation methods are introduced to explore the optimal multivariate quota-share reinsurance under a mean-CVaR framework. While almost all the existing literature on optimal reinsurance are based on a probabilistic derivation, the present paper relies on a statistical analysis. The proposed optimal reinsurance models are directly formulated on empirical data and no explicit distributional assumption on the underlying risk vector is required. The resulting nonparametric reinsurance models are convex and computationally amenable, circumventing the difficulty of computing CVaR of the sum of a generally dependent random vector. Statistical consistency of the resulting estimators for the best CVaR is established for both nonparametric models, allowing empirical data to be generated from any stationary process satisfying strong mixing conditions. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to show that a routine bootstrap procedure can capture the distributions of the resulting risk measures well for independent data.     

Stahel-Donoho kernel estimation for fixed design nonparametric regression models

This paper reports a robust kernel estimation for fixed design nonparametric regression models. A Stahel-Donoho kernel estimation is introduced, in which the weight functions depend on both the depths of data and the distances between the design points and the estimation points. Based on a local approximation, a computational technique is given to approximate to the incomputable depths of the errors. As a result the new estimator is computationally efficient. The proposed estimator attains a high breakdown point and has perfect asymptotic behaviors such as the asymptotic normality and convergence in the mean squared error. Unlike the depth-weighted estimator for parametric regression models, this depth-weighted nonparametric estimator has a simple variance structure and then we can compare its efficiency with the original one. Some simulations show that the new method can smooth the regression estimation and achieve some desirable balances between robustness and efficiency.     

M-estimation in nonparametric regression under strong dependence and infinite variance

A robust local linear regression smoothing estimator for a nonparametric regression model with heavy-tailed dependent errors is considered in this paper. Under certain regularity conditions, the weak consistency and asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators are obtained. If the errors are short-range dependent, then the limiting distribution of the estimator is normal. If the data are long-range dependent, then the limiting distribution of the estimator is a stable distribution.     

Fast Computation of Multivariate Kernel Estimators

Abstract

Multivariate extensions of binning techniques for fast computation of kernel estimators are described and examined. Several questions arising from this multivariate extension are addressed. The choice of binning rule is discussed, and it is demonstrated that linear binning leads to substantial accuracy improvements over simple binning. An investigation into the most appropriate means of computing the multivariate discrete convolutions required for binned kernel estimators is also given. The results of an empirical study indicate that, in multivariate settings, the fast Fourier transform offers considerable time savings compared to direct calculation of convolutions.     

Consistent nonparametric regression from recursive partitioning schemes

We here extend our results on asymptotically Bayes risk efficient classification to the general regression scenario. More precisely, we find L^p consistent estimators for an arbitrary regression function provided only that the dependent variable has a finite absolute pth moment. The estimators are truncated and untruncated local means derived from recursive partitioning schemes.     

Optimal global rates of convergence ofM-estimates for multivariate nonparametric regression

Consider the nonparametric regression modelY=go(T)+u, whereY is real-valued,u is a random error,T is a randomd-vector of explanatory variables ranging over a nondegenerated-dimensional compact setC, andgo(·) is the unknown smooth regression function, which ism (0) times continuously differentiable and itsmth partial derivatives satisfy the Hölder condition with exponent(0,1], wherei ₁, ...,i _d are nonnegative integers satisfying _k ^=1/d i _k =m. The piecewise polynomial estimator ofgo based onM-estimates is considered. It is proved that the rate of convergence of the underlying estimator is under certain regular conditions, which is the optimal global rate of convergence of least square estimates for nonparametric regression studied in [10–11].This work is partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.