Tail dependence for multivariate t -copulas and its monotonicity

The tail dependence indexes of a multivariate distribution describe the amount of dependence in the upper right tail or lower left tail of the distribution and can be used to analyse the dependence among extremal random events. This paper examines the tail dependence of multivariate t-distributions whose copulas are not explicitly accessible. The tractable formulas of tail dependence indexes of a multivariate t-distribution are derived in terms of the joint moments of its underlying multivariate normal distribution, and the monotonicity properties of these indexes with respect to the distribution parameters are established. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the results.     

Nonparametric estimation of the dependence function for a multivariate extreme value distribution

Understanding and modeling dependence structures for multivariate extreme values are of interest in a number of application areas. One of the well-known approaches is to investigate the Pickands dependence function. In the bivariate setting, there exist several estimators for estimating the Pickands dependence function which assume known marginal distributions [J. Pickands, Multivariate extreme value distributions, Bull. Internat. Statist. Inst., 49 (1981) 859-878; P. Deheuvels, On the limiting behavior of the Pickands estimator for bivariate extreme-value distributions, Statist. Probab. Lett. 12 (1991) 429-439; P. Hall, N. Tajvidi, Distribution and dependence-function estimation for bivariate extreme-value distributions, Bernoulli 6 (2000) 835-844; P. Capéraà, A.-L. Fougères, C. Genest, A nonparametric estimation procedure for bivariate extreme value copulas, Biometrika 84 (1997) 567-577]. In this paper, we generalize the bivariate results to p-variate multivariate extreme value distributions with p?2. We demonstrate that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal as well as have excellent small sample behavior.     

Modelling total tail dependence along diagonals

An approach to modelling total tail dependence beyond the main diagonals is proposed. The concept introduced combines the principal and minor diagonals to describe total extreme dependence. A framework is introduced for the measurement of total tail dependence under model mixture. Illustrations are presented using empirical data on stock market indices and exchange rates. An extension is provided to the multivariate case and total tail dependence is considered for model mixtures.     

Modelling dependence

A new way of choosing a suitable copula to model dependence is introduced. Instead of relying on a given parametric family of copulas or applying the other extreme of modelling dependence in a nonparametric way, an intermediate approach is proposed, based on a sequence of parametric models containing more and more dependency aspects. In contrast to a similar way of thinking in testing theory, the method here, intended for estimating the copula, often requires a somewhat larger number of steps. One approach is based on exponential families, another on contamination families. An extensive numerical investigation is supplied on a large number of well-known copulas. The method based on contamination families is recommended. A Gaussian start in this approximation looks very promising.     

Characterizations of multivariate life distributions

Characterizations of multivariate distributions has been a topic of great interest in applied statistics literature for the last three decades. In this paper, we develop characterizations of multivariate lifetime distributions by relationship between multivariate failure rates (reversed failure rates) and the left (right) truncated expectations of functions of random variables. We, then, discuss the application of the results to derive a multivariate Stein type identity.     

MOMENT ESTIMATION FOR MULTIVARIATE EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION

Moment estimation for multivariate extreme value distribution is described in this paper. Asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimators is given. The relative efficiencies of moment estimators as compared with the maximum likelihood and the stepwise estimators are computed. We show that when there is strong dependence between the variates, the generalized variance of moment estimators is much lower than the stepwise estimators. It becomes more obvious when the dimension increases.     

Estimation and inference for dependence in multivariate data

In this paper, a new measure of dependence is proposed. Our approach is based on transforming univariate data to the space where the marginal distributions are normally distributed and then, using the inverse transformation to obtain the distribution function in the original space. The pseudo-maximum likelihood method and the two-stage maximum likelihood approach are used to estimate the unknown parameters. It is shown that the estimated parameters are asymptotical normally distributed in both cases. Inference procedures for testing the independence are also studied.     

Operator trigonometry of multivariate finance

We inquire into an operator-trigonometric analysis of certain multi-asset financial pricing models. Our goal is to provide a new geometric point of view for the understanding and analysis of such financial instruments. Among those instruments which we examine are quantos for currency hedging, spread options for multi-asset pricing, portfolio rebalancing under stochastic interest rates, Black-Scholes volatility models, and risk measures.     

Structural decompositions of multivariate distributions with applications in moment and cumulant

We provide lattice decompositions for multivariate distributions. The lattice decompositions reveal the structural relationship between the Lancaster/Bahadur model and the model of Streitberg (Ann. Statist. 18 (1990) 1878). For multivariate categorical data, the decompositions allows modeling strategy for marginal inference. The theory discussed in this paper illustrates the concept of reproducibility, which was discussed in Liang et al. (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 54 (1992) 3). For the purpose of delineating the relationship between the various types of decompositions of distributions, we develop a theory of polytypefication, the generality of which is exploited to prove results beyond interaction.     

Third-order power comparisons for a class of tests for multivariate linear hypothesis under general distributions

The purpose of this paper is, in multivariate linear regression model (Part I) and GMANOVA model (Part II), to investigate the effect of nonnormality upon the nonnull distributions of some multivariate test statistics under normality. It is shown that whatever the underlying distributions, the difference of local powers up to order N⁻¹ after either Bartlett’s type adjustment or Cornish-Fisher’s type size adjustment under nonnormality coincides with that in Anderson [An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis, 2nd ed. and 3rd ed., Wiley, New York, 1984, 2003] under normality. The derivation of asymptotic expansions is based on the differential operator associated with the multivariate linear regression model under general distributions. The performance of higher-order results in finite samples, including monotone Bartlett’s type adjustment and monotone Cornish-Fisher’s type size adjustment, is examined using simulation studies.     

Multivariate conditional versions of Spearman's rho and related measures of tail dependence

A new family of conditional-dependence measures based on Spearman's rho is introduced. The corresponding multidimensional versions are established. Asymptotic distributional results are derived for related estimators which are based on the empirical copula. Particular emphasis is placed on a new type of multidimensional tail-dependence measure and its relationship to other measures of tail dependence is shown. Multivariate tail dependence describes the limiting amount of dependence in the vertices of the copula's domain.     

Multivariate extreme value distributions for stationary Gaussian sequences

Under weak regularity conditions of the covariance sequence, it is shown that the joint limiting distribution of the maxima on each coordinate of a stationary Gaussian multivariate sequence is that of independent random variables with marginal Gumbel distributions.     

Some properties of multivariate extreme value distributions and multivariate tail equivalence

Summary Denote byH ak-dimensional extreme value distribution with marginal distributionH _i (x)=Λ(x)=exp(−e ^−x ),x∈R ¹. Then it is proved thatH(x)=Λ(x ₁)...Λ(x _k ) for anyx=(x ₁, ...,x _k ) ∈R ^k , if and only if the equation holds forx=(0,...,0). Next some multivariate extensions of the results by Resnick (1971,J. Appl. Probab.,8, 136–156) on tail equivalence and asymptotic distributions of extremes are established.     

The covariance structure and likelihood function for multivariate dyadic data

This paper extends the results in Li and Loken [A unified theory of statistical analysis and inference for variance component models for dyadic data, Statist. Sinica 12 (2002) 519-535] on the statistical analysis of measurements taken on dyads to the situations in which more than one attribute are measured on each dyad. Starting from the covariance structure for the univariate case obtained in Li and Loken (2002), the covariance structure for the multivariate case is derived based on the group symmetry induced by the assumed exchangeability in the units. Our primary objective is to document the Gaussian likelihood and the sufficient statistics for multivariate dyadic data in closed form, so that they can be referenced by researchers as they analyze those data. The derivation carried out can also serve as an example of multivariate extension of univariate models based on exchangeability.     

Symmetrised M-estimators of multivariate scatter

In this paper we introduce a family of symmetrised M-estimators of multivariate scatter. These are defined to be M-estimators only computed on pairwise differences of the observed multivariate data. Symmetrised Huber's M-estimator and Dümbgen's estimator serve as our examples. The influence functions of the symmetrised M-functionals are derived and the limiting distributions of the estimators are discussed in the multivariate elliptical case to consider the robustness and efficiency properties of estimators. The symmetrised M-estimators have the important independence property; they can therefore be used to find the independent components in the independent component analysis (ICA).     

Near-exact distributions for the independence and sphericity likelihood ratio test statistics

In this paper we show how, based on a decomposition of the likelihood ratio test for sphericity into two independent tests and a suitably developed decomposition of the characteristic function of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test independence in a set of variates, we may obtain extremely well-fitting near-exact distributions for both test statistics. Since both test statistics have the distribution of the product of independent Beta random variables, it is possible to obtain near-exact distributions for both statistics in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions or mixtures of these distributions. For the independence test statistic, numerical studies and comparisons with asymptotic distributions proposed by other authors show the extremely high accuracy of the near-exact distributions developed as approximations to the exact distribution. Concerning the sphericity test statistic, comparisons with formerly developed near-exact distributions show the advantages of these new near-exact distributions.     

A note on bias due to fitting prospective multivariate generalized linear models to categorical outcomes ignoring retrospective sampling schemes

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are commonly used in economics, market research and epidemiological studies. Case-control sampling design is a classic example of outcome-dependent sampling, where exposure information is collected on subjects conditional on their disease status. In many situations, the outcome under consideration may have multiple categories instead of a simple dichotomization. For example, in a case-control study, there may be disease sub-classification among the “cases” based on progression of the disease, or in terms of other histological and morphological characteristics of the disease. In this note, we investigate the issue of fitting prospective multivariate generalized linear models to such multiple-category outcome data, ignoring the retrospective nature of the sampling design. We first provide a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for the link functions that will allow for equivalence of prospective and retrospective inference for the parameters of interest. We show that for categorical outcomes, prospective-retrospective equivalence does not hold beyond the generalized multinomial logit link. We then derive an approximate expression for the bias incurred when link functions outside this class are used. Most popular models for ordinal response fall outside the multiplicative intercept class and one should be cautious while performing a naive prospective analysis of such data as the bias could be substantial. We illustrate the extent of bias through a real data example, based on the ongoing Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial by the National Cancer Institute. The simulations based on the real study illustrate that the bias approximations work well in practice.     

Canonical representation of conditionally specified multivariate discrete distributions

Most work on conditionally specified distributions has focused on approaches that operate on the probability space, and the constraints on the probability space often make the study of their properties challenging. We propose decomposing both the joint and conditional discrete distributions into characterizing sets of canonical interactions, and we prove that certain interactions of a joint distribution are shared with its conditional distributions. This invariance opens the door for checking the compatibility between conditional distributions involving the same set of variables. We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of discrete conditional models, and we show how a joint distribution can be easily computed from the pool of interactions collected from the conditional distributions. Hence, the methods can be used to calculate the exact distribution of a Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, issues such as how near compatibility can be reconciled are also discussed. Using mixed parametrization, we show that the proposed approach is based on the canonical parameters, while the conventional approaches are based on the mean parameters. Our advantage is partly due to the invariance that holds only for the canonical parameters.     

Penultimate limiting forms in extreme value theory

Summary Let {X _n}_n≧1 be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables. If the distribution function (d.f.) ofM _n=max (X ₁,…,X _n), suitably normalized with attraction coefficients {α_n}_n≧1(α_n>0) and {b _n}_n≧1, converges to a non-degenerate d.f.G(x), asn→∞, it is of interest to study the rate of convergence to that limit law and if the convergence is slow, to find other d.f.'s which better approximate the d.f. of(M _n−b_n)/a_n thanG(x), for moderaten. We thus consider differences of the formF ⁿ(a_nx+b_n)−G(x), whereG(x) is a type I d.f. of largest values, i.e.,G(x)≡Λ(x)=exp (-exp(−x)), and show that for a broad class of d.f.'sF in the domain of attraction of Λ, there is a penultimate form of approximation which is a type II [Ф _α(x)=exp (−x^−α), x>0] or a type III [Ψ _α(x)= exp (−(−x)^α), x<0] d.f. of largest values, much closer toF ⁿ(a_nx+b_n) than the ultimate itself.     

Quadratic prediction problems in multivariate linear models

Linear and quadratic prediction problems in finite populations have become of great interest to many authors recently. In the present paper, we mainly aim to extend the problem of quadratic prediction from a general linear model, of form , to a multivariate linear model, denoted by with . Firstly, the optimal invariant quadratic unbiased (OIQU) predictor and the optimal invariant quadratic (potentially) biased (OIQB) predictor of for any particular symmetric nonnegative definite matrix satisfying are derived. Secondly, we consider predicting and . The corresponding restricted OIQU predictor and restricted OIQB predictor for them are given. In addition, we also offer four concluding remarks. One concerns the generalization of predicting and , and the others are concerned with three possible extensions from multivariate linear models to growth curve models, to restricted multivariate linear models, and to matrix elliptical linear models.