OPTIMAL-SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF MULTI-SPECIES FISHERIES: LESSONS FROM A PREDATOR-PREY MODEL

ABSTRACT. In this paper we consider the meaning of sustainable resource management in multi-dimensional resources. Based on the principle of intergenerational fairness, we define fisheries management as sustainable if it does not lead to a decline in the net present value of the fishery. If sustainability, or intergenerational fairness, were held as an obligation by fishery managers, then the traditional present-value maximization objective would be constrained. Using numerical solutions to a simple predator-prey model, we explore how the optimal-sustainable management of this fishery would differ from management that seeks to maximize the present value of the benefits. General lessons regarding the meaning of sustainable fishery management are discussed.     

PARADIGM SHIFTS IN FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT: FROM INTEGRATED ANALYSIS TO BAYESIAN ANALYSIS AND BACK AGAIN

ABSTRACT. I describe integrated analysis and Bayesian analysis, which have been two of the most influential paradigms in fisheries stock assessment during the last two decades of the twentieth century. These two paradigms have generally been considered complementary, rather than competing. However, recent advances in integrated analysis, including the special case of meta‐analysis, have made Bayesian analysis somewhat redundant. I describe how data used to create priors for use in Bayesian analysis can be integrated directly into the analyses. This provides a much more convenient way of accurately including the information and associated uncertainty into the analyses. I discuss how there is still a need to describe the uncertainty and suggest that research should focus on the most appropriate methods for doing this.     

ON DEVELOPMENT,FISHERIES AND DYNAMITE: A BRIEF REVIEW OF TROPICAL FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

Some features of underdevelopment in Third World countries are reviewed with emphasis on their impact on fisheries and fisheries management. Poverty in rural communities is highlighted as the key issue preventing rational management of tropical inshore fisheries and shown to be - along with (misguided) export-oriented development strategies - the root cause for destructive fishing techniques and environmental degradation. Some implications for modelling are outlined. A reorientation of investments towards job creation in fish-erfolk and other rural communities is advocated as the key aspect of any solution of fisheries problems in Third World countries.     

A COALITION APPROACH TO THE MANAGEMENT OF HIGH SEAS FISHERIES IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTERNALITIES

ABSTRACT. The current paper extends the coalition approach of the management of high seas fisheries to the presence of externalities. The coalition approach is set within the framework of a two‐stage game in which the payoffs depend on the entire coalition structure and are determined through a partition function. The relationship between the presence of externalities and the stability of the coalition structures is explored. The equilibrium coalition structures of the game are also examined. The application of the game to the Northern Atlantic bluefin tuna shows a typical picture of the high seas fisheries: the simultaneous presence of strong externalities in the coalition structures and the absence of stability of the grand coalition. A fundamental conclusion of this paper is that, generally, in order to guarantee the stability of the cooperative agreements it is not sufficient to implement a fair sharing rule for the distribution of the returns from cooperation. Stability requires a legal regime preventing the players that engage in noncooperative behavior from having access to the resource.     

THE OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF TRANSBOUNDARY FISHERIES: GAME THEORETIC CONSIDERATIONS

One of the most ubiquitous of the fishery management problems to have arisen as a result of E.F.J. is that of managing transboundary resources. Economic analysis of this problem rests upon models blending the standard dynamic economic analysis of fisheries with game theory. The analysis reveals that noncooperation is likely to have severe economic consequences and that cooperative arrangements must deal with possible conflicting goals of management, as well as the division of economic returns from the fishery. While the existing economic analysis of transboundary fishery management is far from complete, it can be shown that the analysis is capable of providing important insights into existing real world cases of transboundary resource management.     

AN AUTOMATED METHOD FOR EXTENDING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO MODEL FUNCTIONS

Abstract Parameter sensitivity analysis is a relatively well‐developed field compared with function sensitivity analysis. How sensitive are model conclusions to the choice of functions used in the right‐hand side of difference or differential equation models? Most work in this area has been scenario based where alternative functions are tested. This requires knowledge of plausible alternatives and is usually restricted to well‐known functions. In this work, a method is proposed for function sensitivity analysis, which it is hoped will provide a starting point for discussion and stimulating further research on this important but neglected topic. The method provides information on the sensitivity of a model's results to changes in the shape of the functions. This is done in an automated way without the need to specify alternative functional forms. The proposed method is illustrated on a small ecosystem model.     

RANDOM ENTRY FORESTRY: TIMBER MANAGEMENT IN A TIME OF SPECIES CONSERVATION

In this paper we propose a timber management scheme which mimics the patchy stand structure of a fire climax forest and has the desirable characteristic of retaining stands of trees of very old ages. We go on to do a preliminary economic analysis and determine that if management is taking place under the restriction that a certain fraction of the forest must be of at least some given age then this approach may be far superior to standard single age rotation schemes.     

A PREDICTIVE MODEL TO INFORM ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF DOUBLE‐CRESTED CORMORANTS AND FISHERIES IN MICHIGAN

The proliferation of double‐crested cormorants (DCCOs; Phalacrocorax auritus) in North America has raised concerns over their potential negative impacts on game, cultured and forage fishes, island and terrestrial resources, and other colonial water birds, leading to increased public demands to reduce their abundance. By combining fish surplus production and bird functional feeding response models, we developed a deterministic predictive model representing bird–fish interactions to inform an adaptive management process for the control of DCCOs in multiple colonies in Michigan. Comparisons of model predictions with observations of changes in DCCO numbers under management measures implemented from 2004 to 2012 suggested that our relatively simple model was able to accurately reconstruct past DCCO population dynamics. These comparisons helped discriminate among alternative parameterizations of demographic processes that were poorly known, especially site fidelity. Using sensitivity analysis, we also identified remaining critical uncertainties (mainly in the spatial distributions of fish vs. DCCO feeding areas) that can be used to prioritize future research and monitoring needs. Model forecasts suggested that continuation of existing control efforts would be sufficient to achieve long‐term DCCO control targets in Michigan and that DCCO control may be necessary to achieve management goals for some DCCO‐impacted fisheries in the state. Finally, our model can be extended by accounting for parametric or ecological uncertainty and including more complex assumptions on DCCO–fish interactions as part of the adaptive management process.     

三维可压核废料污染问题的交替方向特征有限元格式的敛速分析

1　引　　言三维可压核废料污染问题的数学模型为[1 ] :(a)　φ1 p t+ .u =-q +R′s(c)(b)　φ c t+u . c- .(Ec c) =g(c)(c)　φKi ci t+u . ci - .(Ec ci) +d3(ci) p t=fi(c,c1 ,c2 ,… ,c Nc) ,(i =1 ,… ,Nc)(d)　 d2 T t+cpu . T - .(EH T) +d1 (p) p t=Q(u,T,c,p) (1 .1 )其中 :u=-a(c) p=-k(x)μ(c) p.(x,t)∈Ω×J,Ω=I×I×I,I=(0 ,1 ) ,J=(0 ,T] .假设问题 (1 .1 )满足周期边界条件 ,p(x,t) .c(x,t) .ci(x,t) .T(x,t)的初始条件分别取为 p0 (x) ,c0 (x) ,c0i(x) ,T0 (x) ,(i=1 ,… ,Nc) .假设 (1 .1 )的系数可关…     

VARIATIONAL PRINCIPLES FOR NONLOCAL CONTINUUM MODEL OF ORTHOTROPIC GRAPHENE SHEETS EMBEDDED IN AN ELASTIC MEDIUM

Equations governing the vibrations and buckling of multilayered orthotropic graphene sheets can be expressed as a system of n partial differential equations where n refers to the number of sheets.This ...     

一种改进的多维偏好线性规划分析方法

本文对传统的多维偏好线性规划分析方法—LINMAP法进行改进,提出一种新的多维偏好线性规划分析方法,该方法运用加性加权法建立线性规划模型,同时引入任意小正数δ,使得评价结果更加符合决策人偏好集。     

MECHANISM FOR THE TRANSITION FROM A REGULAR REFLECTION TO A MACH REFLECTION OR A VON NEUMANN REFLECTION

In this paper,by taking into account the thickness of the incident shock as well as the influence of the boundary layer,we point out that even in a regular reflection there should be present a contact discontinuity.By using the smallest energy criterion,the inclined angle of this contact discontinuity can be determined for differen incident angle.Then,with this inclined contact discontinuity,together with the law of conservation of mass,the mechanism for the transition from a regular reflection to a Mach reflection or a von Neumann reflection becomes clear.The important roles played by the leftest point in the reflected shock polar are identified.     

FROM HARVESTING TO NONHARVESTING UTILITY: AN OPTIMAL CONTROL APPROACH TO SPECIES CONSERVATION

The purpose of this paper is to retrace the evolution of mathematical models focused on relation and interaction between economic growth, sustainable development, and natural environment conservation. First, generic defensive expenditures are introduced into a common‐property harvesting model in order to favor the species growth. Second, a transition model comprising both harvesting and nonharvesting values of wildlife biological species emerges. The latter gives rise to a group of purely nonharvesting models where anthropic activities and economic growth may have positive or negative impact on the natural evolution of wildlife species. Several scholars have proved that optimal strategies that are relatively good for harvesting purposes are not simply “transferrable” to the context of conservation of wildlife biological species with no harvesting value. In addition, the existence of optimal policies for long‐term conservation of all biological species (with or without harvesting value) cannot be guaranteed without having relatively large species populations at the initial time. Therefore, all such strategies are incapable of enhancing the scarce populations of endangered species and, therefore, cannot save these species from eventual (local) extinction. As an alternative, policymakers may soon be compelled to design and implement short‐term defensive actions aimed at recovery and enhancement of endangered wildlife species.     

FISHERIES AND MARINE PROTECTED AREAS: A SPATIAL BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs), used increasingly as a tool for conservation of ocean and coastal environments, typically interact with fisheries. Indeed, implementation of an MPA in a coastal region will likely affect fishing communities along that coast but to differing degrees depending on their location relative to the MPA. The resulting creation of “winners” and “losers” has implications for the acceptance and long‐term viability of the MPA. This paper develops a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model to assess the distributional implications resulting from creation of a no‐take MPA. The key assumption is that this results in certain fishers being displaced from the MPA to new fishing locations, leading to decreased fishing time and increased costs. Is it possible for those being displaced to end up as “winners” in the fishery? Analysis of the model indicates that such an outcome can occur in certain circumstances, notably if the biological effects of the MPA produce (i) improved ecosystem health inside the MPA, such that fish stock carrying capacity increases; or (ii) to some extent, high fish stock migration rates between neighboring areas. The results indicate that in creating MPAs, careful attention to their design is needed in order to deal with corresponding distributional impacts on fishing communities.     

最优基选择变尺度变换方法收敛性分析

This paper deals with a nonparametric algorithm,named Affine Scaling Transformation (AST),for best basis selection.The characteristic nature of the algorithm provides a global convergence for sparse so...     

AN IMPROVED ERROR ANALYSIS FOR FINITE ELEMENT APPROXIMATION OF BIOLUMINESCENCE TOMOGRAPHY

This paper is concerned with an ill-posed problem which results from the area of molecular imaging and is known as BLT problem. Using Tikhonov regularization technique, a quadratic optimization problem can be formulated. We provide an improved error estimate for the finite element approximation of the regularized optimization problem. Some numerical examples are presented to demonstrate our theoretical results.     

椭圆型奇异摄动问题差分格式的一致收敛性分析

本文研究了一类椭圆型奇异摄动问题.利用Bakhvalov-Shishkin网格上的差分方法,获得了数值解一致一阶收敛于真解的结果.