The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Unpredictable Dynamics of the Cryptocurrency Market

The global economy is under great shock again in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic; it has not been long since the global financial crisis in 2008. Therefore, we investigate the evolution of the complexity of the cryptocurrency market and analyze the characteristics from the past bull market in 2017 to the present the COVID-19 pandemic. To confirm the evolutionary complexity of the cryptocurrency market, three general complexity analyses based on nonlinear measures were used: approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn), and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZ). We analyzed the market complexity/unpredictability for 43 cryptocurrency prices that have been trading until recently. In addition, three non-parametric tests suitable for non-normal distribution comparison were used to cross-check quantitatively. Finally, using the sliding time window analysis, we observed the change in the complexity of the cryptocurrency market according to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination. This study is the first to confirm the complexity/unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market from the bull market to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We find that ApEn, SampEn, and LZ complexity metrics of all markets could not generalize the COVID-19 effect of the complexity due to different patterns. However, market unpredictability is increasing by the ongoing health crisis.     

COVID-19’s Impact on International Trade

We analyze how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the trade of products between countries. With this aim, using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform a Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018–2020, comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms—PageRank, CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix—take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links, providing new insights into international trade compared to the usual import–export analysis. These complex networks analysis algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering all countries on equal grounds, independent of their wealth, and every product on the basis of its relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occurred for the year 2020, highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank–CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import-oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic.     

Linear and Nonlinear Effects in Connectedness Structure: Comparison between European Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to compare the risk transfer structure in Central and Eastern European and Western European stock markets during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the global financial crisis (GFC), the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) created a significant level of risk, causing investors to suffer losses in a very short period of time. We use a variety of methods, including nonstandard like mutual information and transfer entropy. The results that we obtained indicate that there are significant nonlinear correlations in the capital markets that can be practically applied for investment portfolio optimization. From an investor perspective, our findings suggest that in the wake of global crisis and pandemic outbreak, the benefits of diversification will be limited by the transfer of funds between developed and developing country markets. Our study provides an insight into the risk transfer theory in developed and emerging markets as well as a cutting-edge methodology designed for analyzing the connectedness of markets. We contribute to the studies which have examined the different stock markets’ response to different turbulences. The study confirms that specific market effects can still play a significant role because of the interconnection of different sectors of the global economy.     

Therapeutics for COVID-19: from computation to practices—where we are,where we are heading to

Molecular Diversity - After the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic caused by the H1N1 virus, the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) brought us to the time of serious global health catastrophe....     

Piecewise Modeling the Accumulated Daily Growth of COVID-19 Deaths: The Case of the State of São Paulo,Brazil

The pandemic scenery caused by the new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, increased interest in statistical models capable of projecting the evolution of the number of cases (and associated deaths) due to COVID-19 in countries, states and/or cities. This interest is mainly due to the fact that the projections may help the government agencies in making decisions in relation to procedures of prevention of the disease. Since the growth of the number of cases (and deaths) of COVID-19, in general, has presented a heterogeneous evolution over time, it is important that the modeling procedure is capable of identifying periods with different growth rates and proposing an adequate model for each period. Here, we present a modeling procedure based on the fit of a piecewise growth model for the cumulative number of deaths. We opt to focus on the modeling of the cumulative number of deaths because, other than for the number of cases, these values do not depend on the number of diagnostic tests performed. In the proposed approach, the model is updated in the course of the pandemic, and whenever a “new” period of the pandemic is identified, it creates a new sub-dataset composed of the cumulative number of deaths registered from the change point and a new growth model is chosen for that period. Three growth models were fitted for each period: exponential, logistic and Gompertz models. The best model for the cumulative number of deaths recorded is the one with the smallest mean square error and the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. This approach is illustrated in a case study, in which we model the number of deaths due to COVID-19 recorded in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The results have shown that the fit of a piecewise model is very effective for explaining the different periods of the pandemic evolution.     

Complexity of COVID-19 Dynamics

With population explosion and globalization, the spread of infectious diseases has been a major concern. In 2019, a newly identified type of Coronavirus caused an outbreak of respiratory illness, popularly known as COVID-19, and became a pandemic. Although enormous efforts have been made to understand the spread of COVID-19, our knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics still remains limited. The present study employs the concepts of chaos theory to examine the temporal dynamic complexity of COVID-19 around the world. The false nearest neighbor (FNN) method is applied to determine the dimensionality and, hence, the complexity of the COVID-19 dynamics. The methodology involves: (1) reconstruction of a single-variable COVID-19 time series in a multi-dimensional phase space to represent the underlying dynamics; and (2) identification of “false” neighbors in the reconstructed phase space and estimation of the dimension of the COVID-19 series. For implementation, COVID-19 data from 40 countries/regions around the world are studied. Two types of COVID-19 data are analyzed: (1) daily COVID-19 cases; and (2) daily COVID-19 deaths. The results for the 40 countries/regions indicate that: (1) the dynamics of COVID-19 cases exhibit low- to medium-level complexity, with dimensionality in the range 3 to 7; and (2) the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths exhibit complexity anywhere from low to high, with dimensionality ranging from 3 to 13. The results also suggest that the complexity of the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths is greater than or at least equal to that of the dynamics of COVID-19 cases for most (three-fourths) of the countries/regions. These results have important implications for modeling and predicting the spread of COVID-19 (and other infectious diseases), especially in the identification of the appropriate complexity of models.     

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support and Application to the Evaluation of the Fourth Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic caused important health and societal damage across the world in 2020–2022. Its study represents a tremendous challenge for the scientific community. The correct evaluation and analysis of the situation can lead to the elaboration of the most efficient strategies and policies to control and mitigate its propagation. The paper proposes a Multi-Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) based on the combination of three methods: the Group Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP), which is a subjective group weighting method; Extended Entropy Weighting Method (EEWM), which is an objective weighting method; and the COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), which is a multi-criteria method. The COPRAS uses the combined weights calculated by the GAHP and EEWM. The sum normalization (SN) is considered for COPRAS and EEWM. An extended entropy is proposed in EEWM. The MCDS is implemented for the development of a complex COVID-19 indicator called COVIND, which includes several countries’ COVID-19 indicators, over a fourth COVID-19 wave, for a group of European countries. Based on these indicators, a ranking of the countries is obtained. An analysis of the obtained rankings is realized by the variation of two parameters: a parameter that describes the combination of weights obtained with EEWM and GAHP and the parameter of extended entropy function. A correlation analysis between the new indicator and the general country indicators is performed. The MCDS provides policy makers with a decision support able to synthesize the available information on the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Financial Return Distributions: Past,Present, and COVID-19

We analyze the price return distributions of currency exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and contracts for differences (CFDs) representing stock indices, stock shares, and commodities. Based on recent data from the years 2017–2020, we model tails of the return distributions at different time scales by using power-law, stretched exponential, and q-Gaussian functions. We focus on the fitted function parameters and how they change over the years by comparing our results with those from earlier studies and find that, on the time horizons of up to a few minutes, the so-called “inverse-cubic power-law” still constitutes an appropriate global reference. However, we no longer observe the hypothesized universal constant acceleration of the market time flow that was manifested before in an ever faster convergence of empirical return distributions towards the normal distribution. Our results do not exclude such a scenario but, rather, suggest that some other short-term processes related to a current market situation alter market dynamics and may mask this scenario. Real market dynamics is associated with a continuous alternation of different regimes with different statistical properties. An example is the COVID-19 pandemic outburst, which had an enormous yet short-time impact on financial markets. We also point out that two factors—speed of the market time flow and the asset cross-correlation magnitude—while related (the larger the speed, the larger the cross-correlations on a given time scale), act in opposite directions with regard to the return distribution tails, which can affect the expected distribution convergence to the normal distribution.     

Evolving Network Analysis of S&P500 Components: COVID-19 Influence of Cross-Correlation Network Structure

The economy is a system of complex interactions. The COVID-19 pandemic strongly influenced economies, particularly through introduced restrictions, which formed a completely new economic environment. The present work focuses on the changes induced by the COVID-19 epidemic on the correlation network structure. The analysis is performed on a representative set of USA companies—the S&P500 components. Four different network structures are constructed (strong, weak, typically, and significantly connected networks), and the rank entropy, cycle entropy, averaged clustering coefficient, and transitivity evolution are established and discussed. Based on the mentioned structural parameters, four different stages have been distinguished during the COVID-19-induced crisis. The proposed network properties and their applicability to a crisis-distinguishing problem are discussed. Moreover, the optimal time window problem is analysed.     

The Problem of Fairness in Synthetic Healthcare Data

Access to healthcare data such as electronic health records (EHR) is often restricted by laws established to protect patient privacy. These restrictions hinder the reproducibility of existing results based on private healthcare data and also limit new research. Synthetically-generated healthcare data solve this problem by preserving privacy and enabling researchers and policymakers to drive decisions and methods based on realistic data. Healthcare data can include information about multiple in- and out- patient visits of patients, making it a time-series dataset which is often influenced by protected attributes like age, gender, race etc. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated health inequities, with certain subgroups experiencing poorer outcomes and less access to healthcare. To combat these inequities, synthetic data must “fairly” represent diverse minority subgroups such that the conclusions drawn on synthetic data are correct and the results can be generalized to real data. In this article, we develop two fairness metrics for synthetic data, and analyze all subgroups defined by protected attributes to analyze the bias in three published synthetic research datasets. These covariate-level disparity metrics revealed that synthetic data may not be representative at the univariate and multivariate subgroup-levels and thus, fairness should be addressed when developing data generation methods. We discuss the need for measuring fairness in synthetic healthcare data to enable the development of robust machine learning models to create more equitable synthetic healthcare datasets.     

Entropy: From Thermodynamics to Information Processing

Entropy is a concept that emerged in the 19th century. It used to be associated with heat harnessed by a thermal machine to perform work during the Industrial Revolution. However, there was an unprecedented scientific revolution in the 20th century due to one of its most essential innovations, i.e., the information theory, which also encompasses the concept of entropy. Therefore, the following question is naturally raised: “what is the difference, if any, between concepts of entropy in each field of knowledge?” There are misconceptions, as there have been multiple attempts to conciliate the entropy of thermodynamics with that of information theory. Entropy is most commonly defined as “disorder”, although it is not a good analogy since “order” is a subjective human concept, and “disorder” cannot always be obtained from entropy. Therefore, this paper presents a historical background on the evolution of the term “entropy”, and provides mathematical evidence and logical arguments regarding its interconnection in various scientific areas, with the objective of providing a theoretical review and reference material for a broad audience.     

Multifractal Behaviors of Stock Indices and Their Ability to Improve Forecasting in a Volatility Clustering Period

The financial market is a complex system, which has become more complicated due to the sudden impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. As a result there may be much higher degree of uncertainty and volatility clustering in stock markets. How does this “black swan” event affect the fractal behaviors of the stock market? How to improve the forecasting accuracy after that? Here we study the multifractal behaviors of 5-min time series of CSI300 and S&P500, which represents the two stock markets of China and United States. Using the Overlapped Sliding Window-based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (OSW-MF-DFA) method, we found that the two markets always have multifractal characteristics, and the degree of fractal intensified during the first panic period of pandemic. Based on the long and short-term memory which are described by fractal test results, we use the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network model to forecast these indices. We found that during the large volatility clustering period, the prediction accuracy of the time series can be significantly improved by adding the time-varying Hurst index to the GRU neural network.     

Understanding the Impact of Walkability,Population Density,and Population Size on COVID-19 Spread: A Pilot Study of the Early Contagion in the United States

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global event that has been challenging governments, health systems, and communities worldwide. Available data from the first months indicated varying patterns of the spread of COVID-19 within American cities, when the spread was faster in high-density and walkable cities such as New York than in low-density and car-oriented cities such as Los Angeles. Subsequent containment efforts, underlying population characteristics, variants, and other factors likely affected the spread significantly. However, this work investigates the hypothesis that urban configuration and associated spatial use patterns directly impact how the disease spreads and infects a population. It follows work that has shown how the spatial configuration of urban spaces impacts the social behavior of people moving through those spaces. It addresses the first 60 days of contagion (before containment measures were widely adopted and had time to affect spread) in 93 urban counties in the United States, considering population size, population density, walkability, here evaluated through walkscore, an indicator that measures the density of amenities, and, therefore, opportunities for population mixing, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths. Our findings indicate correlations between walkability, population density, and COVID-19 spreading patterns but no clear correlation between population size and the number of cases or deaths per 100 k habitants. Although virus spread beyond these initial cases may provide additional data for analysis, this study is an initial step in understanding the relationship between COVID-19 and urban configuration.     

Breakpoint Analysis for the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Effect on the Stock Markets

In this research, statistical models are formulated to study the effect of the health crisis arising from COVID-19 in global markets. Breakpoints in the price series of stock indexes are considered. Such indexes are used as an approximation of the stock markets in different countries, taking into account that they are indicative of these markets because of their composition. The main results obtained in this investigation highlight that countries with better institutional and economic conditions are less affected by the pandemic. In addition, the effect of the health index in the models is associated with their non-significant parameters. This is due to that the health index used in the modeling would not determine the different capacities of the countries analyzed to respond efficiently to the pandemic effect. Therefore, the contagion is the preponderant factor when analyzing the structural breakdown that occurred in the world economy.     

A Bayesian Approach to Predict Football Matches with Changed Home Advantage in Spectator-Free Matches after the COVID-19 Break

Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most professional sports events have been held without spectators. It is generally believed that home teams deprived of enthusiastic support from their home fans experience reduced benefits of playing on their home fields, thus becoming less likely to win. This study attempts to confirm if this belief is true in four major European football leagues through statistical analysis. This study proposes a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model to estimate parameters reflecting the home advantage and the change in such advantage. These parameters are used to improve the performance of machine-learning-based prediction models for football matches played after the COVID-19 break. The study describes the statistical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on football match results in terms of the expected score and goal difference. It also shows that estimated parameters from the proposed model reflect the changed home advantage. Finally, the study verifies that these parameters, when included as additional features, enhance the performance of various football match prediction models. The home advantage in European football matches has changed because of the behind-closed-doors policy implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using parameters reflecting the pandemic’s impact, it is possible to predict more precise results of spectator-free matches after the COVID-19 break.     

Immunity in the ABM-DSGE Framework for Preventing and Controlling Epidemics—Validation of Results

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions on how to manage an epidemiological and economic crisis around the world. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists and policy makers have been asking how effective lockdowns are in preventing and controlling the spread of the virus. In the absence of vaccines, the regulators lacked any plausible alternatives. Nevertheless, after the introduction of vaccinations, to what extent the conclusions of these analyses are still valid should be considered. In this paper, we present a study on the effect of vaccinations within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an agent-based epidemic component. Thus, we validated the results regarding the need to use lockdowns as an efficient tool for preventing and controlling epidemics that were obtained in November 2020.     

Influenza virus pathogenicity regulated by host cellular proteases,cytokines and metabolites,and its therapeutic options

Influenza A virus (IAV) causes significant morbidity and mortality. The knowledge gained within the last decade on the pandemic IAV(H1N1)2009 improved our understanding not only of the viral pathogenicity but also the host cellular factors involved in the pathogenicity of multiorgan failure (MOF), such as cellular trypsin-type hemagglutinin (HA₀) processing proteases for viral multiplication, cytokine storm, metabolic disorders and energy crisis. The HA processing proteases in the airway and organs for all IAV known to date have been identified. Recently, a new concept on the pathogenicity of MOF, the “influenza virus–cytokine–trypsin” cycle, has been proposed involving up-regulation of trypsin through pro-inflammatory cytokines, and potentiation of viral multiplication in various organs. Furthermore, the relationship between causative factors has been summarized as the “influenza virus–cytokine–trypsin” cycle interconnected with the “metabolic disorders–cytokine” cycle. These cycles provide new treatment concepts for ATP crisis and MOF. This review discusses IAV pathogenicity on cellular proteases, cytokines, metabolites and therapeutic options.     

Tackling COVID-19 Using Antiviral Nanocoating's—Recent Progress and Future Challenges

In the current situation of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is a worldwide demand for the protection of regular handling surfaces from viral transmission to restrict the spread of COVID-19 infection. To tackle this challenge, researchers and scientists are continuously working on novel antiviral nanocoatings to make various substrates capable of arresting the spread of such pathogens. These nanocoatings systems include metal/metal oxide nanoparticles, electrospun antiviral polymer nanofibers, antiviral polymer nanoparticles, graphene family nanomaterials, and etched nanostructures. The antiviral mechanism of these systems involves depletion of the spike glycoprotein that anchors to surfaces by the nanocoating and makes the spike glycoprotein and viral nucleotides inactive; however, the nature of the interaction between the spike proteins and virus depends on the type of nanostructure and a surface charge over the coating surface. In this article, the current scenario of COVID-19 and how it can be tackled using antiviral nanocoatings from the further transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), along with their different mode of action, are discussed. Additionally, it is also highlighted different types of nanocoatings developed for various substrates to encounter transmission of SARS-CoV-2, future research areas along with the current challenges related to it, and how these challenges can be resolved.     

COVID-19: inflammatory responses,structure-based drug design and potential therapeutics

Molecular Diversity - The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the global health emergency. Here, we explore the diverse mechanisms of SARS-CoV-induced inflammation. We presume...     

A Nonclinical Spectroscopic Approach for Diagnosing Covid-19: A Concise Perspective

Journal of Applied Spectroscopy - With the COVID-19 outbreak, many challenges are posed before the scientific world to curb this pandemic. The diagnostic testing, treatment, and vaccine development...