The determinants of mortality heterogeneity and implications for pricing annuities

Standard annuities are offered at one price to all individuals of the same age and gender. Individual mortality heterogeneity exposes insurers to adverse selection since only relatively healthy lives are expected to purchase annuities. As a result standard annuities are priced assuming above-average longevity, making them expensive for many individuals. In contrast underwritten annuity prices reflect individual risk factors based on underwriting information, as well as age and gender. While underwriting reduces heterogeneity, mortality risk still varies within each risk class due to unobservable individual risk factors, referred to as frailty. This paper quantifies the impact of heterogeneity due to underwriting factors and frailty on annuity values. Heterogeneity is quantified by fitting Generalized Linear Mixed Models to longitudinal data for a large sample of US males. The results show that heterogeneity remains after underwriting and that frailty significantly impacts the fair value of both standard and underwritten annuities. We develop a method to adjust annuity prices to allow for frailty.     

带相依终止事件的复发事件数据的可加可乘比率模型

本文对带相依终止事件的复发事件数据提出了一个联合建模分析方法,用一个带脆弱变量的可加可乘比率模型来刻画复发事件过程,还用带脆弱变量的Cox风险率模型来刻画终止事件过程,而且这两个过程的相依性由脆弱变量来刻画.我们利用估计方程的方法,对模型参数进行了估计,给出了所得估计的渐近性质.同时,通过数值模拟分析验证了估计的渐近性质.最后,利用该方法分析了弗吉尼亚大学慢性心脏病病人医疗诊费数据.     

Gamma shared frailty model based on reversed hazard rate for bivariate survival data

The unknown or unobservable risk factors in the survival analysis cause heterogeneity between the individuals. Frailty models are used in the survival analysis to account for the unobserved heterogeneity in the individual risks to disease and death. In this paper, we suggest the shared gamma frailty model with the reversed hazard rate. We introduce the Bayesian estimation procedure using MCMC technique to estimate the parameters involved in the model and compare the frailty model with the baseline model. We apply the proposed models to Australian twin data set and suggest a better model.     

Additive Positive Stable Frailty Models

In this article, we describe an additive stable frailty model for multivariate times to events data using a flexible baseline hazard, and assuming that the frailty component for each individual is described by additive functions of independent positive stable random variables with possibly different stability indices. Dependence properties of this frailty model are investigated. To carry out inference, the likelihood function is derived by replacing high-dimensional integration by Monte Carlo simulation. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms enable estimation and model checking in the Bayesian framework.      

A note on the stochastic properties of a scale change random effects model

The scale change model in survival analysis incorporates unobserved heterogeneity through a frailty that enters the baseline hazard function to change the time scale. In this paper we examine the stochastic properties of the mixtures of scale change model and build dependence between the overall population variable and the frailty variable. We also carry out stochastic comparisons between overall population variables when their respective frailty or baseline variables are ordered in the sense of various stochastic orders. Finally, we demonstrate how the variation of the baseline variable has an effect on the model.     

A sheaf model for intuitionistic quantum mechanics

We analyze the passing of a single particle through a double-slit apparatus. This is done using a sheaf model of intuitionistic logic. We develop an algebra of slits and study the non-classical behaviour of quantum slits. A specific interference formula is obtained by averaging. This formula extends the usual one.This work was partially supported by an Australian Research Council program grant and by theDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

Semi-parametric estimation of covariate effects using the positive stable frailty model

Many biological and medical studies have as a response of interest the time to occurrence of some event, such as the occurrence of a particular symptom or disease, remission, relapse, death due to some specific disease, or simply death. In this paper we study the problem of assessing the effect of potential risk factors on the outcome event of interest through a parametric or semi-parametric frailty model where the lifetimes have a reason to be considered dependent. This dependence may arise because of multiple endpoints within the same individual or because, when studying a single endpoint, there are natural groupings between study subjects. The objective of this paper is to extend both parametric and semi-parametric approaches to regression analysis in which the lifetimes of individuals in a group are effected by the same random frailty which follows a positive stable distribution. Some comparisons of the properties of this frailty distribution with other frailty distributions are made and an example which assesses the effect of a treatment in a litter-matched tumorigenesis study is presented.     

Estimation in generalized linear models for functional data via penalized likelihood

We analyze in a regression setting the link between a scalar response and a functional predictor by means of a Functional Generalized Linear Model. We first give a theoretical framework and then discuss identifiability of the model. The functional coefficient of the model is estimated via penalized likelihood with spline approximation. The L² rate of convergence of this estimator is given under smoothness assumption on the functional coefficient. Heuristic arguments show how these rates may be improved for some particular frameworks.     

Modelling the independent insurance agent's product evaluation strategy: An application of conjoint analysis

A major property-casualty insurance company had streamlined underwriting procedures and hoped to design a new commercial insurance package which would appeal to its independent agents. They hoped to do this by improving service times, premium and/or commission, but making these improvements would require the agents to fill out a new underwriting form. The research used conjoint analysis to determine for management the optimum levels of each of the factors to be employed in the new programme and the possible negative impact of the new underwriting form. Also discussed are issues relating to the use of conjoint analysis; in particular, the handling of large factorial designs and the aggregation of individual results.     

Minimizing movements and evolution problems in Euclidean spaces

We study evolution curves of variational type, called minimizing movements, obtainedvia a time discretization and minimization method. We analyze examples in Euclidean spaces, where some classes of minimizing movements are solutions of suitable ordinary differential equations of gradient flow type. Finally, we construct an example to show that in general these evolution curves are not maximal slope curves. Entrata in Redazione il 3 gennaio 1997.     

Modeling heterogeneity for bivariate survival data by the compound Poisson distribution with random scale

We propose a bivariate Weibull regression model with heterogeneity (frailty or random effect) which is generated by compound Poisson distribution with random scale. We assume that the bivariate survival data follow bivariate Weibull of Hanagal (2004). There are some interesting situations like survival times in genetic epidemiology, dental implants of patients and twin births (both monozygotic and dizygotic) where genetic behavior (which is unknown and random) of patients follows a known frailty distribution. These are the situations which motivate us to study this particular model. We propose a two stage maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the parameters in the proposed model and develop large sample tests for testing significance of regression parameters.     

资本配置视角下财产保险公司承保决策分析

探讨了产险公司在资本和收益双重约束条件下的承保决策问题．首先,从保险理论和实践的角度选择了TVaR资本配置方法,然后构造综合资本、收益双重因素的承保决策模型并进行了实证分析,结论显示从资本的角度进行承保决策是可行的．     

A folk model structure on omega-cat

The primary aim of this work is an intrinsic homotopy theory of strict ω-categories. We establish a model structure on ωCat, the category of strict ω-categories. The constructions leading to the model structure in question are expressed entirely within the scope of ωCat, building on a set of generating cofibrations and a class of weak equivalences as basic items. All objects are fibrant while free objects are cofibrant. We further exhibit model structures of this type on n-categories for arbitrary n∈N, as specializations of the ω-categorical one along right adjoints. In particular, known cases for n=1 and n=2 nicely fit into the scheme.     

Risk comparison of different bonus distribution approaches in participating life insurance

The fair pricing of explicit and implicit options in life insurance products has received broad attention in the academic literature over the past years. Participating life insurance (PLI) contracts have been the focus especially. These policies are typically characterized by a term life insurance, a minimum interest rate guarantee, and bonus participation rules with regard to the insurer’s asset returns or reserve situation. Researchers replicate these bonus policies quite differently. We categorize and formally present the most common PLI bonus distribution mechanisms. These bonus models closely mirror the Danish, German, British, and Italian regulatory framework. Subsequently, we perform a comparative analysis of the different bonus models with regard to risk valuation. We calibrate contract parameters so that the compared contracts have a net present value of zero and the same safety level as the initial position, using risk-neutral valuation. Subsequently, we analyze the effect of changes in the asset volatility and in the initial reserve amount (per contract) on the value of the default put option (DPO), while keeping all other parameters constant. Our results show that DPO values obtained with the PLI bonus distribution model of Bacinello (2001), which replicates the Italian regulatory framework, are most sensitive to changes in volatility and initial reserves.     

Mean-lower partial moment asset pricing and the regulation of property—liability insurance rates

The mean-lower partial moment (E-L) asset pricing model is investigated as a theoretically preferable alternative to the mean—variance (E-V) model currently used for the regulation of property—liability insurance rates. An E-L regulatory model, specific to the property—liability underwriting return function, is derived. Empirical tests show that the E-L model is reliable relative to the E-V model. The E-L model tends to generate lower ‘fair’ profit rates on underwriting than does the E-V model.     

Measure-valued solutions for a hierarchically size-structured population

We present a hierarchically size-structured population model with growth, mortality and reproduction rates which depend on a function of the population density (environment). We present an example to show that if the growth rate is not always a decreasing function of the environment (e.g., a growth which exhibits the Allee effect) the emergence of a singular solution which contains a Dirac delta mass component is possible, even if the vital rates of the individual and the initial data are smooth functions. Therefore, we study the existence of measure-valued solutions. Our approach is based on the vanishing viscosity method.     

Competition among non-life insurers under solvency constraints: A game-theoretic approach

We formulate a noncooperative game to model competition for policyholders among non-life insurance companies, taking into account market premium, solvency level, market share and underwriting results. We study Nash equilibria and Stackelberg equilibria for the premium levels, and give numerical illustrations.     

The conversion option in life insurance

This paper introduces an option that has been provided by life insurance companies extensively but has not been discussed in much in the literature; the conversion option. By constructing a valuation model, we first confirm that the conversion option may have positive values. We further find that the value of this option highly depends on the difference of the expected and actual mortality pattern after the insured individual converts his/her policy. Meanwhile, considering the general trend of mortality improvement, we incorporate this trend by applying the Lee-Carter model, hoping to provide a reasonable and fair valuation of the conversion option.     

Semiparametric additive intensity model with frailty for recurrent events

The seminal Cox’s proportional intensity model with multiplicative frailty is a popular approach to analyzing the frequently encountered recurrent event data in scientific studies. In the case of violating the proportional intensity assumption, the additive intensity model is a useful alternative. Both the additive and proportional intensity models provide two principal frameworks for studying the association between the risk factors and the disease recurrences. However, methodology development on the additive intensity model with frailty is lacking, although would be valuable. In this paper, we propose an additive intensity model with additive frailty to formulate the effects of possibly time-dependent covariates on recurrent events as well as to evaluate the intra-class dependence within recurrent events which is captured by the frailty variable. The asymptotic properties for both the regression parameters and the association parameters in frailty distribution are established. Furthermore, we also investigate the large-sample properties of the estimator for the cumulative baseline intensity function.     

Investment portfolio behavior of non-life insurers: A utility analysis

Non-life insurers often claim that they are lead to reach out for extremely risky assets in the composition of their investment portfolio when their underwriting results deteriorate. In this paper we develop a model which attempts to explain the real behavior of investment portfolios of non-life insurance companies. The model is extended to include several variables over which the analysis is completed, namely the underwriting result, the premiums, the funds generating coefficient. The model is then subjected to a comparative statics analysis in order to examine the behavior of the portfolio composition in response to changes in the above mentioned variables. We show that the arguments developed by non-life insurers are at least questionable and critically dependent upon the increase and/or decrease of risk aversion measures.