Copules gaussiennes dans les chaînes triplet partiellement de Markov

Hidden Markov chains, which are widely used in different data restoration problems, have recently been generalised to pairwise partially Markov chains, in which the hidden chain is no longer necessarily Markovian and the distribution of the observed chain, conditional on the hidden one, is of any form. First, we show the applicability of the models in the Gaussian case, with a particular attention to long range correlation noises. Second, we show that the use of copulas allows one to take into account any other form of marginal distributions of the observed chain, conditionally to the hidden one. We end by extending the latter model to a triplet partially Markov chain case. To cite this article: W. Pieczynski, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 341 (2005).     

基于Copula函数的组合资产条件相依性模型研究

条件概率分布常用来研究马尔科夫序列相依模型的构建,组合资产的相依结构受多方面的影响,资产之间的相互影响与时间上的记忆效应是组合资产两类主要的相依关系.结合条件概率的理论建立基于Copula函数相依关系模型,研究组合资产之间同期相依关系及时间上的短期相依关系,提出了模型参数的三阶段极大似然估计方法.     

Maxima of random particles scores in Markov branching process with continuous time

We consider supercritical Markov branching processes with continuous time where every particle has one or two random scores. We are interested in maxima of these scores over the population. The class of nondegenerate limit laws for linear normed maxima is described. Limit copulas, upper and lower tail dependence coefficients are obtained for cases of two scores and two time points. Results are illustrated by the computer simulation. The work was partially supported by RFBR grants No. 07-01-00077, No. 07-01-00373.     

A multivariate version of Hoeffding’s Phi-Square

A multivariate measure of association is proposed, which extends the bivariate copula-based measure Phi-Square introduced by Hoeffding [22]. We discuss its analytical properties and calculate its explicit value for some copulas of simple form; a simulation procedure to approximate its value is provided otherwise. A nonparametric estimator for multivariate Phi-Square is derived and its asymptotic behavior is established based on the weak convergence of the empirical copula process both in the case of independent observations and dependent observations from strictly stationary strong mixing sequences. The asymptotic variance of the estimator can be estimated by means of nonparametric bootstrap methods. For illustration, the theoretical results are applied to financial asset return data.     

Markov Chain Approximations to Nonsymmetric Diffusions with Bounded Coefficients

We consider a certain class of nonsymmetric Markov chains and obtain heat kernel bounds and parabolic Harnack inequalities. Using the heat kernel estimates, we establish a sufficient condition for the family of Markov chains to converge to nonsymmetric diffusions. As an application, we approximate nonsymmetric diffusions in divergence form with bounded coefficients by nonsymmetric Markov chains. This extends the results by Stroock and Zheng to the nonsymmetric divergence forms. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Spatially homogeneous copulas

We consider spatially homogeneous copulas, i.e. copulas whose corresponding measure is invariant under a special transformations of \([0,1]^2\), and we study their main properties with a view to possible use in stochastic models. Specifically, we express any spatially homogeneous copula in terms of a probability measure on [0, 1) via the Markov kernel representation. Moreover, we prove some symmetry properties and demonstrate how spatially homogeneous copulas can be used in order to construct copulas with surprisingly singular properties. Finally, a generalization of spatially homogeneous copulas to the so-called (m, n)-spatially homogeneous copulas is studied and a characterization of this new family of copulas in terms of the Markov \(*\)-product is established.

     

Wasserstein convergence rates for random bit approximations of continuous Markov processes

We determine the convergence speed of a numerical scheme for approximating one-dimensional continuous strong Markov processes. The scheme is based on the construction of certain Markov chains whose laws can be embedded into the process with a sequence of stopping times. Under a mild condition on the process' speed measure we prove that the approximating Markov chains converge at fixed times at the rate of 1/4 with respect to every p-th Wasserstein distance. For the convergence of paths, we prove any rate strictly smaller than 1/4. Our results apply, in particular, to processes with irregular behavior such as solutions of SDEs with irregular coefficients and processes with sticky points.     

On a strong metric on the space of copulas and its induced dependence measure

Using the one-to-one correspondence between copulas and Markov operators on L¹([0,1]) and expressing the Markov operators in terms of regular conditional distributions (Markov kernels) allows to define a metric D₁ on the space of copulas C that is a metrization of the strong operator topology of the corresponding Markov operators. It is shown that the resulting metric space (C,D₁) is complete and separable and that the induced dependence measure ζ₁, defined as a scalar times the D₁-distance to the product copula Π, has various good properties. In particular the class of copulas that have maximum D₁-distance to the product copula is exactly the class of completely dependent copulas, i.e. copulas induced by Lebesgue-measure preserving transformations on [0,1]. Hence, in contrast to the uniform distance d_∞, Π cannot be approximated arbitrarily well by completely dependent copulas with respect to D₁. The interrelation between D₁ and the so-called ∂-convergence by Mikusinski and Taylor as well as the interrelation between ζ₁ and the mutual dependence measure ω by Siburg and Stoimenov is analyzed. ζ₁ is calculated for some well-known parametric families of copulas and an application to singular copulas induced by certain Iterated Functions Systems is given.     

Relaxation of Product Markov Chains on Product Spaces

We study the relaxation time of product-type Markov chains approaching a product distribution. We bound the approach to stationarity for such Markov chains in terms of the mixing times of the component Markov chains. In cases where the component mixing times differ considerably we propose an optimized visiting scheme which makes such product-type Markov chains comparable to Gibbs-type samplers. We conclude the paper by discussing the relaxation of Metropolis-type samplers for separable energy functions.     

Adaptive Importance Sampling for simulating copula-based distributions

In this paper, we propose a generalization of importance sampling, called Adaptive Importance Sampling, to approximate simulation of copula-based distributions. Unlike existing methods for copula simulation that have appeared in the literature, this algorithm is broad enough to be used for any absolutely continuous copula. We provide details of the algorithm including rules for stopping the iterative process and consequently assess its performance using extensive Monte Carlo experiments. To assist in its extension to several dimensions, we discuss procedures for identifying the crucial parameters in order to achieve desirable results especially as the size of the dimension increases. Finally, for practical illustration, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm to price First-to-Default credit swap, an important credit derivative instrument in the financial market. The method works exquisitely well even for large dimensions making it a valuable tool for simulating from many different classes of copulas including those which have been difficult to sample from using traditional techniques.     

Multivariate negative binomial models for insurance claim counts

It is no longer uncommon these days to find the need in actuarial practice to model claim counts from multiple types of coverage, such as the ratemaking process for bundled insurance contracts. Since different types of claims are conceivably correlated with each other, the multivariate count regression models that emphasize the dependency among claim types are more helpful for inference and prediction purposes. Motivated by the characteristics of an insurance dataset, we investigate alternative approaches to constructing multivariate count models based on the negative binomial distribution. A classical approach to induce correlation is to employ common shock variables. However, this formulation relies on the NB-I distribution which is restrictive for dispersion modeling. To address these issues, we consider two different methods of modeling multivariate claim counts using copulas. The first one works with the discrete count data directly using a mixture of max-id copulas that allows for flexible pair-wise association as well as tail and global dependence. The second one employs elliptical copulas to join continuitized data while preserving the dependence structure of the original counts. The empirical analysis examines a portfolio of auto insurance policies from a Singapore insurer where claim frequency of three types of claims (third party property damage, own damage, and third party bodily injury) are considered. The results demonstrate the superiority of the copula-based approaches over the common shock model. Finally, we implemented the various models in loss predictive applications.     

Berry–Esseen estimates for regenerative processes under weak moment assumptions

We prove Berry–Esseen type rates of convergence for central limit theorems (CLTs) of regenerative processes which generalize previous results of Bolthausen under weaker moment assumptions. We then show how this general result can be applied to obtain rates of convergence for (1) CLTs for additive functionals of positive recurrent Markov chains under certain conditions on the strong mixing coefficients, and (2) annealed CLTs for certain ballistic random walks in random environments.     

Singularly Perturbed Markov Chains with Two Small Parameters: A Matched Asymptotic Expansion

This work is concerned with asymptotic properties of solutions to forward equations for singularly perturbed Markov chains with two small parameters. It is motivated by the model of a cost-minimizing firm involving production planning and capacity expansion and a two-level hierarchical decomposition. Our effort focuses on obtaining asymptotic expansions of the solutions to the forward equation. Different from previous work on singularly perturbed Markov chains, the inner expansion terms are constructed by solving certain partial differential equations. The methods of undetermined coefficients are used. The error bound is obtained.     

基于倾斜-t Copula的半参数马尔可夫链

在不指定时间序列结构的情况下,我们的分布模型是基于多变量离散时间的相应马尔可夫族和相关变量一维的边际分布.这样的模型可以同时处理时间序列之间的相互依赖和每个时间序列沿时间方向的依赖.具体的参数copula被指定为倾斜-t. 倾斜-t Copla能够处理不对称,偏斜和粗尾的数据分布.三个股票指数日均收益的实证研究表明,倾斜-t copula的马尔可夫模型要比以下模型更好:倾斜正态Copula马可夫, t-copula马可夫, 倾斜-t copula但无马尔可夫特性.     

树指标马氏链的若干性质

主要研究了树指标马氏链的若干性质,它与一般直线上的马氏链有类似的性质.     

Convergence of locally and globally interacting Markov chains

We study the long run behaviour of interactive Markov chains on infinite product spaces. In view of microstructure models of financial markets, the interaction has both a local and a global component. The convergence of such Markov chains is analyzed on the microscopic level and on the macroscopic level of empirical fields. We give sufficient conditions for convergence on the macroscopic level. Using a perturbation of the Dobrushin–Vasserstein contraction technique we show that macroscopic convergence implies weak convergence of the underlying Markov chain. This extends the basic convergence theorem of Vasserstein for locally interacting Markov chains to the case where an additional global component appears in the interaction.     

Estimations pour les chaînes de Markov réversibles

We give Gaussian lower and upper bounds for reversible Markov chains on a graph under two geometric assumptions (volume regularity and Poincaré inequality). This is first proved for continuous-time Markov chains via a parabolic Harnack inequality. Then, the estimates for the discrete-time Markov chains are derived by comparison.     

Asymmetric extreme interdependence in emerging equity markets

We assess the extent of integration between stock markets during stressful periods using the concept of copulas. Our methodology consists of fitting copulas to simultaneous exceedances of high thresholds, and computing copula‐based measures of interdependence and contagion. Using 21 pairs of emerging stock markets daily returns, we investigate if dependence increases with crisis, and analyse the chances of both markets crashing together. Dependence at joint positive and negative extreme returns levels may differ. This type of asymmetry is captured by the upper and lower tail dependence coefficients. Propagation of crisis may be faster in one direction, and this feature is captured by asymmetric copulas. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on adiabatic theorem for Markov chains

We state and prove a version of an adiabatic theorem for Markov chains using well-known facts about mixing times. We extend the result to the case of continuous time Markov chains with bounded generators.