Computationally Efficient Estimation for the Generalized Odds Rate Mixture Cure Model With Interval-Censored Data

For semiparametric survival models with interval-censored data and a cure fraction, it is often difficult to derive nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation due to the challenge in maximizing the complex likelihood function. In this article, we propose a computationally efficient EM algorithm, facilitated by a gamma-Poisson data augmentation, for maximum likelihood estimation in a class of generalized odds rate mixture cure (GORMC) models with interval-censored data. The gamma-Poisson data augmentation greatly simplifies the EM estimation and enhances the convergence speed of the EM algorithm. The empirical properties of the proposed method are examined through extensive simulation studies and compared with numerical maximum likelihood estimates. An R package “GORCure” is developed to implement the proposed method and its use is illustrated by an application to the Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study dataset. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Adaptive Component-Wise Multiple-Try Metropolis Sampling

One of the most widely used samplers in practice is the component-wise Metropolis–Hastings (CMH) sampler that updates in turn the components of a vector-valued Markov chain using accept–reject moves generated from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution of a Markov chain is irregularly shaped, a “good” proposal distribution for one region of the state–space might be a “poor” one for another region. We consider a component-wise multiple-try Metropolis (CMTM) algorithm that chooses from a set of candidate moves sampled from different distributions. The computational efficiency is increased using an adaptation rule for the CMTM algorithm that dynamically builds a better set of proposal distributions as the Markov chain runs. The ergodicity of the adaptive chain is demonstrated theoretically. The performance is studied via simulations and real data examples. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Particle-based online estimation of tangent filters with application to parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models

This paper presents a novel algorithm for efficient online estimation of the filter derivatives in general hidden Markov models. The algorithm, which has a linear computational complexity and very limited memory requirements, is furnished with a number of convergence results, including a central limit theorem with an asymptotic variance that can be shown to be uniformly bounded in time. Using the proposed filter derivative estimator, we design a recursive maximum likelihood algorithm updating the parameters according the gradient of the one-step predictor log-likelihood. The efficiency of this online parameter estimation scheme is illustrated in a simulation study.

     

A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation

We investigate two approaches, namely, the Esscher transform and the extended Girsanov’s principle, for option valuation in a discrete-time hidden Markov regime-switching Gaussian model. The model’s parameters including the interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of a risky asset are governed by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain whose states represent the hidden states of an economy. We give a recursive filter for the hidden Markov chain and estimates of model parameters using a filter-based EM algorithm. We also derive predictors for the hidden Markov chain and some related quantities. These quantities are used to estimate the price of a standard European call option. Numerical examples based on real financial data are provided to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method.     

Computational Strategies for Multivariate Linear Mixed-Effects Models With Missing Values

This article presents new computational techniques for multivariate longitudinal or clustered data with missing values. Current methodology for linear mixed-effects models can accommodate imbalance or missing data in a single response variable, but it cannot handle missing values in multiple responses or additional covariates. Applying a multivariate extension of a popular linear mixed-effects model, we create multiple imputations of missing values for subsequent analyses by a straightforward and effective Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. We also derive and implement a new EM algorithm for parameter estimation which converges more rapidly than traditional EM algorithms because it does not treat the random effects as “missing data,” but integrates them out of the likelihood function analytically. These techniques are illustrated on models for adolescent alcohol use in a large school-based prevention trial.     

基于EM算法隐Markov模型参数估计

描述最大似然参数估计问题,介绍如何用EM算法求解最大似然参数估计.首先给出EM算法的抽象形式,然后介绍EM算法的一个应用:求隐Markov模型中的参数估计.用EM算法推导出隐Markov模型中参数的迭代公式.     

An EM Algorithm for Batch Markovian Arrival Processes and its Comparison to a Simpler Estimation Procedure

Although the concept of Batch Markovian Arrival Processes (BMAPs) has gained widespread use in stochastic modelling of communication systems and other application areas, there are few statistical methods of parameter estimation proposed yet. However, in order to practically use BMAPs for modelling, statistical model fitting from empirical time series is an essential task. The present paper contains a specification of the classical EM algorithm for MAPs and BMAPs as well as a performance comparison to the computationally simpler estimation procedure recently proposed by Breuer and Gilbert. Furthermore, it is shown how to adapt the latter to become an estimator for hidden Markov models.     

A Hybrid High-Order Markov Chain Model for Computer Intrusion Detection

A hybrid model based mostly on a high-order Markov chain and occasionally on a statistical-independence model is proposed for profiling command sequences of a computer user in order to identify a “signature behavior” for that user. Based on the model, an estimation procedure for such a signature behavior driven by maximum likelihood (ML) considerations is devised. The formal ML estimates are numerically intractable, but the ML-optimization problem can be substituted by a linear inverse problem with positivity constraint (LININPOS), for which the EM algorithm can be used as an equation solver to produce an approximate ML-estimate. The intrusion detection system works by comparing a user's command sequence to the user's and others' estimated signature behaviors in real time through statistical hypothesis testing. A form of likelihood-ratio test is used to detect if a given sequence of commands is from the proclaimed user, with the alternative hypothesis being a masquerader user. Applying the model to real-life data collected from AT&T Labs–Research indicates that the new methodology holds some promise for intrusion detection.     

Parameter estimation of partially observed continuous time stochastic processes via the EM algorithm

An algorithm is presented for the problem of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of parameters of partially observed continuous time random processes. This algorithm is an extension of the EM algorithm [3] used in the time series literature, and preserves its main features. It is then applied to the problem of parameter estimation of continuous time, finite state or infinite state (diffusions) Markov processes observed via a noisy sensor. The algorithm in general involves iterations of non-linear smoothing with known parameters and then a non-stochastic maximization. For special cases, including linear models and AR/ARMA processes observed in white noise, each iteration is easily performed with finite dimensional filters. Finally, the algorithm is applied to parameter estimation of “randomly slowly varying” linear systems observed in white noise, and explicit results are derived.     

On Adjusted Viterbi Training

The EM algorithm is a principal tool for parameter estimation in the hidden Markov models, where its efficient implementation is known as the Baum–Welch algorithm. This paper is however motivated by applications where EM is replaced by Viterbi training, or extraction (VT), also known as the Baum–Viterbi algorithm. VT is computationally less intensive and more stable, and has more of an intuitive appeal. However, VT estimators are also biased and inconsistent. Recently, we have proposed elsewhere the adjusted Viterbi training (VA), a new method to alleviate the above imprecision of the VT estimators while preserving the computational advantages of the baseline VT algorithm. The key difference between VA and VT is that asymptotically, the true parameter values are a fixed point of VA (and EM), but not of VT. We have previously studied VA for a special case of Gaussian mixtures, including simulations to illustrate its improved performance. The present work proves the asymptotic fixed point property of VA for general hidden Markov models. J. Lember is supported by Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5694.     

A recursive scheme for frequency estimation using the modulating functions method

In this paper, an application of modulating functions method for estimation of the frequency of noisy sinusoids, is proposed. The unknown frequency is updated by introducing a recursive algorithm which is independent by the choice of the modulating functions type. The proposed recursive estimation formula is able to take into account possible abrupt changes or sweep in the frequency of the sinusoidal signal. The goodness of the proposed method is verified through numerical simulations.     

Least-squares linear estimation of signals from observations with Markovian delays

The least-squares linear estimation of signals from randomly delayed measurements is addressed when the delay is modeled by a homogeneous Markov chain. To estimate the signal, recursive filtering and fixed-point smoothing algorithms are derived, using an innovation approach, assuming that the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are known. Recursive formulas for filtering and fixed-point smoothing error covariance matrices are obtained to measure the goodness of the proposed estimators.     

The Alive Particle Filter and Its Use in Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo

In the following article, we investigate a particle filter for approximating Feynman–Kac models with indicator potentials and we use this algorithm within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to learn static parameters of the model. Examples of such models include approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) posteriors associated with hidden Markov models (HMMs) or rare-event problems. Such models require the use of advanced particle filter or MCMC algorithms to perform estimation. One of the drawbacks of existing particle filters is that they may “collapse,” in that the algorithm may terminate early, due to the indicator potentials. In this article, using a newly developed special case of the locally adaptive particle filter, we use an algorithm that can deal with this latter problem, while introducing a random cost per-time step. In particular, we show how this algorithm can be used within MCMC, using particle MCMC. It is established that, when not taking into account computational time, when the new MCMC algorithm is applied to a simplified model it has a lower asymptotic variance in comparison to a standard particle MCMC algorithm. Numerical examples are presented for ABC approximations of HMMs.     

Identification of Regeneration Times in MCMC Simulation,With Application to Adaptive Schemes

Regeneration is a useful tool in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation because it can be used to side-step the burn-in problem and to construct better estimates of the variance of parameter estimates themselves. It also provides a simple way to introduce adaptive behavior into a Markov chain, and to use parallel processors to build a single chain. Regeneration is often difficult to take advantage of because, for most chains, no recurrent proper atom exists, and it is not always easy to use Nummelin's splitting method to identify regeneration times. This article describes a constructive method for generating a Markov chain with a specified target distribution and identifying regeneration times. As a special case of the method, an algorithm which can be “wrapped” around an existing Markov transition kernel is given. In addition, a specific rule for adapting the transition kernel at regeneration times is introduced, which gradually replaces the original transition kernel with an independence-sampling Metropolis-Hastings kernel using a mixture normal approximation to the target density as its proposal density. Computational gains for the regenerative adaptive algorithm are demonstrated in examples.     

Efficient Adaptive MCMC Through Precision Estimation

The performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms like the Metropolis Hastings Random Walk (MHRW) is highly dependent on the choice of scaling matrix for the proposal distributions. A popular choice of scaling matrix in adaptive MCMC methods is to use the empirical covariance matrix (ECM) of previous samples. However, this choice is problematic if the dimension of the target distribution is large, since the ECM then converges slowly and is computationally expensive to use. We propose two algorithms to improve convergence and decrease computational cost of adaptive MCMC methods in cases when the precision (inverse covariance) matrix of the target density can be well-approximated by a sparse matrix. The first is an algorithm for online estimation of the Cholesky factor of a sparse precision matrix. The second estimates the sparsity structure of the precision matrix. Combining the two algorithms allows us to construct precision-based adaptive MCMC algorithms that can be used as black-box methods for densities with unknown dependency structures. We construct precision-based versions of the adaptive MHRW and the adaptive Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm and demonstrate the performance of the methods in two examples. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Strategic Asset Allocation Under a Fractional Hidden Markov Model

Strategic asset allocation is discussed in a discrete-time economy, where the rates of return from asset classes are explained in terms of some observable and hidden factors. We extend the existing models by incorporating long-term memory in the rates of return and observable economic factors, which have been documented in the empirical literature. Hidden factors are described by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain noisily observed in a fractional Gaussian process. The strategic asset allocation problem is discussed in a mean-variance utility framework. Filtering and parameter estimation are also considered in the hybrid model.     

An Online Expectation–Maximization Algorithm for Changepoint Models

Changepoint models are widely used to model the heterogeneity of sequential data. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) online expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the static parameters of such models. The SMC online EM algorithm has a cost per time which is linear in the number of particles and could be particularly important when the data is representable as a long sequence of observations, since it drastically reduces the computational requirements for implementation. We present an asymptotic analysis for the stability of the SMC estimates used in the online EM algorithm and demonstrate the performance of this scheme by using both simulated and real data originating from DNA analysis. The supplementary materials for the article are available online.     

Maximum likelihood least squares identification for systems with autoregressive moving average noise

Maximum likelihood methods are important for system modeling and parameter estimation. This paper derives a recursive maximum likelihood least squares identification algorithm for systems with autoregressive moving average noises, based on the maximum likelihood principle. In this derivation, we prove that the maximum of the likelihood function is equivalent to minimizing the least squares cost function. The proposed algorithm is different from the corresponding generalized extended least squares algorithm. The simulation test shows that the proposed algorithm has a higher estimation accuracy than the recursive generalized extended least squares algorithm.     

Filtering and change point estimation for hidden Markov-modulated Poisson processes

A continuous-time Markov chain which is partially observed in Poisson noise is considered, where a structural change in the dynamics of the hidden process occurs at a random change point. Filtering and change point estimation of the model is discussed. Closed-form recursive estimates of the conditional distribution of the hidden process and the random change point are obtained, given the Poisson process observations     

Bayesian Semiparametric Density Estimation and Model Verification Using a Logistic–Gaussian Process

This article proposes a semiparametric model, which consists of parametric and nonparametric components, for density estimation. The parametric component represents the researcher's a priori beliefs about a likely family of density functions. The nonparametric component, which is modeled by a logistic–Gaussian process, allows the predictive distribution to deviate from the parametric family if it is inadequate. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to examine the adequacy of the parametric model relative to the flexible alternative provided by the semiparametric model. The article presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that efficiently handles the large number of parameters.