非线性模型中的拟似然估计和约束拟似然估计

该文证明了,在非线性回归模型中,若以均方误差或均方误差矩阵为标准,拟似然估计是正则广义拟似然估计类中的最优估计,并讨论了拟得分函数最优性与拟似然估计最优性的关系.为改进拟似然估计,该文提出了一种约束拟似然估计,并证明了约束拟似然估计比拟似然估计有较小的均方误差.     

非线性回归模型中的约束拟似然

在非线性回归模型中,拟得分函数是一类线性无偏估计函数中的最优者(GodambeandHeyde(1987),朱仲义(1996)),而由拟得分函数得到的拟似然估计在由线性无偏估计函数得到的估计类中具有渐近最优性(林路(1999)).本文则研究非线性回归模型中的有偏估计函数理论,构造了参数的约束拟似然估计,得到了约束拟似然的局部最优性,局部改进了拟似然估计,从而扩充了线性模型中的有偏估计理论.     

Parameter Estimation for Observed Diffusions in Manifolds

Following the procedure described by Elworthy (1982) and Ikeda& Watanabe (1981) we construct the solution of stochasticdifferential equations (SDEs) in manifolds. We take such SDEsto describe parametrized completely observed stochastic systemsand manifold-valued state processes. The likelihood functionfor the system parameter is computed by two methods: the firstapplies to the case of parallelizable manifolds; the secondapplies to the general case, here the solution of the systemSDE is constructed in the orthonormal frame bundle of the manifold.Two examples are given.     

Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations: Simulated Maximum Likelihood versus Extended Kalman Filter and Itô-Taylor Expansion

This article compares several estimation methods for nonlinear stochastic differential equations with discrete time measurements. The likelihood function is computed by Monte Carlo simulations of the transition probability (simulated maximum likelihood SML) using kernel density estimators and functional integrals and by using the extended Kalman filter (EKF and second-order nonlinear filter SNF). The relation with a local linearization method is discussed. A simulation study for a diffusion process in a double well potential (Ginzburg–Landau equation) shows that, for large sampling intervals, the SML methods lead to better estimation results than the likelihood approach via EKF and SNF. A second study using a nonlinear diffusion coefficient (generalized Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model) demonstrates that the EKF type estimators may serve as efficient alternatives to simple maximum quasilikelihood approaches and Monte Carlo methods.     

Integration by parts formulas concerning maxima of some SDEs with applications to study on density functions

In this article, we prove integration by parts (IBP) formulas concerning maxima of solutions to some stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We will deal with three types of maxima. First, we consider discrete time maximum, and then continuous time maximum in the case of one-dimensional SDEs. Finally, we deal with the maximum of the components of a solution to multi-dimensional SDEs. Applications to study their probability density functions by means of the IBP formulas are also discussed.     

异方差的线性混合模型的参数估计

本文研究既含有固定效应又含有随机效应的线性混合模型,在随机效应的方差不同即异方差情况下,即考虑方差受外界因素的影响,如温度、湿度等,我们称之为协变量,在有协变量情况下对方差建立对数线性模型,运用最大似然估计讨论了固定效应的估计和随机效应的预测,并且用约束最大似然(REML)方法研究对数线性模型中参数和随机误差中参数(离差参数)的估计,并讨论估计量的性质及离差参数估计量的渐近正态性。     

Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes

We discuss a maximum likelihood procedure for estimating parameters in possibly noncausal autoregressive processes driven by i.i.d. non-Gaussian noise. Under appropriate conditions, estimates of the parameters that are solutions to the likelihood equations exist and are asymptotically normal. The estimation procedure is illustrated with a simulation study for AR(2) processes.     

On score-functions and goodness-of-fit tests for stochastic processes

The problems of the construction of asymptotically distribution free goodness-of-fit tests for two diffusion processes are considered. The null hypothesis is composite parametric. All tests are based on the score-function processes, where the unknown parameter is replaced by the maximum likelihood estimators. We show that a special change of time transforms the limit score-function processes into the Brownian bridge. This property allows us to construct asymptotically distribution-free tests for dynamical systems with small noise and ergodic diffusion processes. The proposed tests are in some sense universal. We discuss the possibilities of the construction of asymptotically distribution free tests for inhomogeneous Poisson processes and nonlinear AR time series.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for small noise multiscale diffusions

We study the problem of parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating parameters. Depending on how fast the intensity of the noise goes to zero relative to the homogenization parameter, we consider three different regimes. For each regime, we construct the maximum likelihood estimator and we study its consistency and asymptotic normality properties. A simulation study for the first order Langevin equation with a two scale potential is also provided.     

Efficient Algorithm for Computing Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Linear Transformation Models

Linear transformation models, which have been extensively studied in survival analysis, include the two special cases: the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation is usually used to derive the efficient estimators. However, due to the large number of nuisance parameters, calculation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is difficult in practice, except for the proportional hazards model. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, where the dimensionality of the parameter space is dramatically reduced so that only a finite number of equations need to be solved. Moreover, the asymptotic variance is automatically estimated in the computing procedure. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed algorithm works very well for linear transformation models. A real example is presented for an illustration of the new methodology.     

Robust Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations

We consider the estimation of parameters in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The problem is treated in the setting of nonlinear filtering theory with a degenerate diffusion matrix. A robust stochastic Feynman–Kac representation for solutions of SDEs of Zakai-type is derived. It is verified that these solutions are conditional densities for the conditional measures defined by degenerate filtering problems. We show that the corresponding estimator for the parameters is robust in the following sense: It depends continuously on both the measurement path and on the intensity of the measurement noise. An algorithm based on a Monte-Carlo approach is given for the practical application of the estimator, and numerical results are reported. Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000) Primary: 62M05, 62M20; secondary: 62F15.     

Numerical analysis of stochastic oscillators on supercomputers

The problem of numerical analysis of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with oscillating solutions is investigated. The expectation and variance of SDE numerical solutions are shown as functions of the mesh size of integrating the generalized Euler method. Results of some numerical experiments on the simulation of linear and nonlinear stochastic oscillators on the supercomputer of the Siberian Supercomputer Center are presented.     

指数分布抽样基本定理及在三参数一般指数分布参数估计中的应用

讨论三参数一般指数分布的参数估计,首先讨论了三参数一般指数分布参数的最大似然估计的求解问题,当其中参数α=1时,应用指数分布抽样基本定理,得到了三参数一般指数分布其它参数的一致最小方差无偏估计;并且由此给出求解三参数一般指数分布参数最大似然估计的迭代方法,得到了三参数一般指数分布参数最大似然估计的近似值,给出了模拟结果以说明迭代方法的收敛性;并以相关文献的观察数据作为样本,得到了三参数一般指数分布的参数估计,从而说明了迭代方法的有效性.     

Coupled McKean–Vlasov diffusions: wellposedness,propagation of chaos and invariant measures

In this paper, we study a two-species model in the form of a coupled system of nonlinear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) that arises from a variety of applications such as aggregation of biological cells and pedestrian movements. The evolution of each process is influenced by four different forces, namely an external force, a self-interacting force, a cross-interacting force and a stochastic noise where the two interactions depend on the laws of the two processes. We also consider a many-particle system and a (nonlinear) partial differential equation (PDE) system that associate to the model. We prove the wellposedness of the SDEs, the propagation of chaos of the particle system, and the existence and (non)-uniqueness of invariant measures of the PDE system.     

Problems with the estimation of stochastic differential equations using structural equations models

The present paper deals with the identification and maximum likelihood estimation of systems of linear stochastic differential equations using panel data. So we only have a sample of discrete observations over time of the relevant variables for each individual. A popular approach in the social sciences advocates the estimation of the “exact discrete model” after a reparameterization with LISREL or similar programs for structural equations models. The “exact discrete model” corresponds to the continuous time model in the sense that observations at equidistant points in time that are generated by the latter system also satisfy the former. In the LISREL approach the reparameterized discrete time model is estimated first without taking into account the nonlinear mapping from the continuous to the discrete time parameters. In a second step, using the inverse mapping, the fundamental system parameters of the continuous time system in which we are interested, are inferred. However, some severe problems arise with this “indirect approach”. First, an identification problem may arise in multiple equation systems, since the matrix exponential function denning some of the new parameters is in general not one‐to‐one, and hence the inverse mapping mentioned above does not exist. Second, usually some sort of approximation of the time paths of the exogenous variables is necessary before the structural parameters of the system can be estimated with discrete data. Two simple approximation methods are discussed. In both approximation methods the resulting new discrete time parameters are connected in a complicated way. So estimating the reparameterized discrete model by OLS without restrictions does not yield maximum likelihood estimates of the desired continuous time parameters as claimed by some authors. Third, a further limitation of estimating the reparameterized model with programs for structural equations models is that even simple restrictions on the original fundamental parameters of the continuous time system cannot be dealt with. This issue is also discussed in some detail. For these reasons the “indirect method” cannot be recommended. In many cases the approach leads to misleading inferences. We strongly advocate the direct estimation of the continuous time parameters. This approach is more involved, because the exact discrete model is nonlinear in the original parameters. A computer program by Hermann Singer that provides appropriate maximum likelihood estimates is described.     

Parameter estimation in general state-space models using particle methods

Particle filtering techniques are a set of powerful and versatile simulation-based methods to perform optimal state estimation in nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models. If the model includes fixed parameters, a standard technique to perform parameter estimation consists of extending the state with the parameter to transform the problem into an optimal filtering problem. However, this approach requires the use of special particle filtering techniques which suffer from several drawbacks. We consider here an alternative approach combining particle filtering and gradient algorithms to perform batch and recursive maximum likelihood parameter estimation. An original particle method is presented to implement these approaches and their efficiency is assessed through simulation.     

Parameter estimation for Hammerstein CARARMA systems based on the Newton iteration

The Newton iteration is basic for solving nonlinear optimization problems and studying parameter estimation algorithms. In this letter, a maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is developed for estimating the parameters of Hammerstein nonlinear controlled autoregressive autoregressive moving average (CARARMA) systems by using the Newton iteration. A simulation example is provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Estimation of intrinsic growth factors in a class of stochastic population model

This article discusses the problem of parameter estimation with nonlinear mean-reversion type stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Brownian motion for population growth model. The estimator in the population model is the climate effects, population policy and environmental circumstances which affect the intrinsic rate of growth r. The consistency and asymptotic distribution of the estimator θ is studied in our general setting. In the calculation method, unlike previous study, since the nonlinear feature of the model, it is difficult to obtain an explicit formula for the estimator. To solve this, some criteria are used to derive an asymptotically consistent estimator. Furthermore Girsanov transformation is used to simplify the equations, which then gives rise to the corresponding convergence of the estimator being with respect to a family of probability measures indexed by the dispersion parameter, while in the literature the existing results have dealt with convergence with respect to a given probability measure.     

非线性联立方程模型的充分信息最大加权似然估计及其性质

提出非线性联立方程模型的充分信息最大加权似然估计并得到其一致性和渐近正态性的大样本性质 .     

Classical and Bayesian inference in two parameter exponential distribution with randomly censored data

This paper deal with the classical and Bayesian estimation for two parameter exponential distribution having scale and location parameters with randomly censored data. The censoring time is also assumed to follow a two parameter exponential distribution with different scale but same location parameter. The main stress is on the location parameter in this paper. This parameter has not yet been studied with random censoring in literature. Fitting and using exponential distribution on the range \((0, \infty )\), specially when the minimum observation in the data set is significantly large, will give estimates far from accurate. First we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters with their variances and asymptotic confidence intervals. Some other classical methods of estimation such as method of moment, L-moments and least squares are also employed. Next, we discuss the Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters using Gibbs sampling procedures under generalized entropy loss function with inverted gamma priors and Highest Posterior Density credible intervals. We also consider some reliability and experimental characteristics and their estimates. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare the proposed estimates. Two real data examples are given to illustrate the importance of the location parameter.