自然灾害区域疏散的预警优化模型研究

在可预知的灾害来临前,交通堵塞问题是影响应急疏散效率的主要因素。在灾前防御阶段,有策略的发布预警消息可以使疏散更加有秩序的进行,从而提高疏散效率。本文为区域应急疏散预案构建了应急疏散预警发布研究框架,首先建立了避难点分配模型,将其结果代入到疏散预警模型,来优化特定地区预警发布时间和类型。其中,预警模型加入了时间成分,构建成了多时段模型,并使用贪婪的启发式搜索过程求解非线性的公式。最后,通过算例分析了模型算法的应用范围及其可行性,并用模拟退火算法进行了计算,验证了本算法的有效性。本研究更改以往在同一时间通过全部渠道发布消息的方式,通过疏散预警信息的发布策略的优化,可以有效避免在区域内大规模人群同时出发所导致的交通拥堵现象,为政府制定科学的应急疏散预案提供理论和技术支持。     

The “Gauss-Seidelization” of iterative methods for solving nonlinear equations in the complex plane

In this paper we introduce a process we have called “Gauss-Seidelization” for solving nonlinear equations. We have used this name because the process is inspired by the well-known Gauss-Seidel method to numerically solve a system of linear equations. Together with some convergence results, we present several numerical experiments in order to emphasize how the Gauss-Seidelization process influences on the dynamical behavior of an iterative method for solving nonlinear equations.     

Conservative allocation models for outbound containers in container terminals

This paper examines location assignment for outbound containers in container terminals. It is an extension to the previous modeling work of Kim et al. (2000) and Zhang et al. (2010). The previous model was an “optimistic” handling way and gave a moderate punishment for placing a lighter container onto the top of a stack already loaded with heavier containers. Considering that the original model neglected the stack height and the state-changing magnitude information when interpreting the punishment parameter and hid too much information about the specific configurations for a given stack representation, we propose two new “conservative” allocation models in this paper. One considers the stack height and the state-changing magnitude information by reinterpreting the punishment parameter and the other further considers the specific configurations for a given stack representation. Solution qualities for the “optimistic” and the two “conservative” allocation models are compared on two performance indicators. The numerical experiments indicate that both the first and second “conservative” allocation models outperform the original model in terms of the two performance indicators. In addition, to overcome computational difficulties encountered by the dynamic programming algorithm for large-scale problems, an approximate dynamic programming algorithm is presented as well.     

Comparison of first aggregation and last aggregation in fuzzy group TOPSIS

The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), one of the major multi attribute decision making (MADM) techniques, ranks the alternatives according to their distances from the ideal and the negative ideal solution. In real evaluation and decision making problems, it is vital to involve several people and experts from different functional areas in decision making process. Also under many conditions, crisp data are inadequate to model real-life situations, since human judgments including preferences are often vague and cannot estimate his preference with an exact numerical value. Therefore aggregation of fuzzy concept, group decision making and TOPSIS methods that we denote “fuzzy group TOPSIS” is more practical than original TOPSIS.     

Macroscopic traffic models: Shifting from densities to “Celerities”

The advent of techniques to measure velocities of “GPS equipped vehicles” using satellite technology, replacing the density of the road traffic sensors, motivates and justifies the revision of conceptual, mathematical algorithms and software based models. This paper summarizes studies on the traffic evolutions achieving the minimum of a congestion function controlled “macroscopic traffic velocities” called “celerities” instead of founding traffic regulation on the measures of traffic densities. The flux valued function is the Fenchel transform of the fundamental diagram and is a convex decreasing function. We use the properties of capture basins investigated in viability theory, specifically a Lax-Hopf formula characterizing them and the “Max-Plus” morphism of capture basins for deriving the statements proved in this paper. Traffic conditions involve as well boundary conditions or conditions on trajectories inside the domain.     

Stochastic mathematical programs with hybrid equilibrium constraints

This paper considers a stochastic mathematical program with hybrid equilibrium constraints (SMPHEC), which includes either “here-and-now” or “wait-and-see” type complementarity constraints. An example is given to describe the necessity to study SMPHEC. In order to solve the problem, the sampling average approximation techniques are employed to approximate the expectations and smoothing and penalty techniques are used to deal with the complementarity constraints. Limiting behaviors of the proposed approach are discussed. Preliminary numerical experiments show that the proposed approach is applicable.     

Adams methods for neutral functional differential equations

Summary In this paper Adams type methods for the special case of neutral functional differential equations are examined. It is shown thatk-step methods maintain orderk+1 for sufficiently small step size in a sufficiently smooth situation. However, when these methods are applied to an equation with a non-smooth solution the order of convergence is only one. Some computational considerations are given and numerical experiments are presented.     

Asymptotics for functionals of self-normalized residuals of discretely observed stochastic processes

The purpose of this paper is to derive the stochastic expansion of self-normalized-residual functionals stemming from a class of diffusion type processes observed at high frequency, where total observing period may or may not tend to infinity. The result enables us to construct some explicit statistics for goodness of fit tests, consistent against “presence of a jump component” and “diffusion-coefficient misspecification”; then, the acceptance of the null hypothesis may serve as a collateral evidence for using the correctly specified diffusion type model. Especially, our asymptotic result clarifies how to remove the bias caused by plugging in a diffusion-coefficient estimator.     

Meta-data envelopment analysis: Finding a direction towards marginal profit maximization

This paper discusses a new meta-DEA approach to solve the problem of choosing direction vectors when estimating the directional distance function. The proposed model emphasizes finding the “direction” for productivity improvement rather than estimating the “score” of efficiency; focusing on “planning” over “evaluation”. In fact, the direction towards marginal profit maximization implies a step-by-step improvement and “wait-and-see” decision process, which is more consistent with the practical decision-making process. An empirical study of U.S. coal-fired power plants operating in 2011 validates the proposed model. The results show that the efficiency measure using the proposed direction is consistent with all other indices with the exception of the direction towards the profit-maximized benchmark. We conclude that the marginal profit maximization is a useful guide for determining direction in the directional distance function.     

Adverse selection or advantageous selection? Risk and underwriting in China’s health-insurance market

Using data from China’s individual health-insurance market, we study the problem of information asymmetry. Our preliminary results appear to contradict standard-model predictions, showing that higher-risk buyers are more likely to purchase “additional” insurance than lower-risk buyers, but that they also tend to purchase lower limits of “basic” insurance coverage. We therefore develop a theoretical model to capture the effects of buyers’ wealth levels and loss amounts, and show empirically that these effects, in the context of asymmetric information, lead to the coexistence of adverse selection and advantageous selection in China’s health-insurance market.     

Optimal control of a singular PDE modeling transient MEMS with control or state constraints

A particular feature of certain microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) is the appearance of a so-called “pull-in” instability, corresponding to a singularity in the underlying PDE model. We here consider a transient MEMS model and its optimal control via the dielectric properties of the membrane and/or the applied voltage. In contrast to the static case, the control problem suffers from low dimensionality of the control compared to the state and hence requires different techniques for establishing first order optimality conditions. For this purpose, we here use a relaxation approach combined with a localization technique.     

Fast solving of weighted pairing least-squares systems

This paper presents a generalization of the “weighted least-squares” (WLS), named “weighted pairing least-squares” (WPLS), which uses a rectangular weight matrix and is suitable for data alignment problems. Two fast solving methods, suitable for solving full rank systems as well as rank deficient systems, are studied. Computational experiments clearly show that the best method, in terms of speed, accuracy, and numerical stability, is based on a special {1, 2, 3}-inverse, whose computation reduces to a very simple generalization of the usual “Cholesky factorization-backward substitution” method for solving linear systems.     

Exploring the critical pillars and causal relations within the NRI: An innovative approach

The Global Information Technology Report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) has employed networked readiness index (NRI) to measure the global competitiveness of a country’s information and communication technologies (ICT) diffusion. The final NRI overall scores were measured by an arithmetic mean aggregation of the composite pillars scores, which implicitly assumed that all the pillars have constant weights. The Report did not explore the critical pillars and causal relations for better decision making. To add values to this Report, the objective of this paper is to propose an innovative approach by using data mining techniques and partial least squares path modeling to scrutinize the critical pillars within the NRI and to further explore the causal relations amongst them. An empirical analysis based on the latest Report (2009-2010) is carried out. The results show that “business usage,” “business readiness,” and “market environment” are the three root drivers—critical pillars to manipulate the NRI overall scores; whereas “government readiness,” which is further mostly affected by the “government usage,” is the foremost enabler to the NRI overall scores. Based on the results, policy makers are suggested to allocate limited resources with priority to the three root drivers and one foremost enabler to frog-leap the global competitiveness of national ICT diffusion.     

A comparison of different quantity discount pricing policies in a two-echelon channel with stochastic and asymmetric demand information

In this paper, we study quantity discount pricing policies in a channel of one manufacturer and one retailer. The paper assumes that the channel faces a stochastic price-sensitive demand but the retailer can privately observe the realization of an uncertain demand parameter. The problem is analyzed as a Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer declares quantity discount pricing schemes to the retailer and then the retailer follows by selecting the retail price and associated quantity. Proposed in the paper are four quantity-discount pricing policies: “regular quantity discount”; “fixed percentage discount”; “incremental volume discount” and “fixed marginal-profit-rate discount”. Optimal solutions are derived, and numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency of each discount policy.     

Existence of solutions to a new model of biological pattern formation

In this paper we study the existence of classical solutions to a new model of skeletal development in the vertebrate limb. The model incorporates a general term describing adhesion interaction between cells and fibronectin, an extracellular matrix molecule secreted by the cells, as well as two secreted, diffusible regulators of fibronectin production, the positively-acting differentiation factor (“activator”) TGF-β, and a negatively-acting factor (“inhibitor”). Together, these terms constitute a pattern forming system of equations. We analyze the conditions guaranteeing that smooth solutions exist globally in time. We prove that these conditions can be significantly relaxed if we add a diffusion term to the equation describing the evolution of fibronectin.     

SharpL ∞-error estimates for semilinear elliptic problems with free boundaries

Summary A numerical scheme to approximate a semilinear PDE involving a (singular) maximal monotone graph is analyzed inL . A preliminary regularization is combined with piecewise linear finite elements defined on a triangulation which is not assumed to be acute; the discrete maximum principle is thus avoided. Sharp pointwise error estimates are derived for both the smoothing and the discretization procedures. An optimal choice of the regularization parameter as a function of the mesh size leads to a sharp global rate of convergence. These error estimates for solutions, in conjunction with nondegeneracy properties of continuous problems, provide sharp interface error estimates. Two model examples are discussed: the obstacle problem and a combustion equation.This work was partially supported by Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche of Italy while the author was in residence at the Istituto di Analisi Numerica del C.N.R. di Pavia     

Problem posing via “what if not?” strategy in solid geometry — a case study

The study describes the kinds of problems posed by pre-service teachers on the basis of complex solid geometry tasks using the “what if not?” strategy and the educational value of such an activity. Twenty-eight pre-service teachers participated in two workshops in which they had to pose problems on the basis of given problems. Analysis of the posed problems revealed a wide range of problems including those containing a change of one of the numerical data to another specific one, to a proof problem. Different kinds of posed problems enlightened some phenomena such as a bigger frequency of posed problems with another numerical value and a lack of posed problems including formal generalization. We also discuss the educational strengths of problem posing in solid geometry using the “what if not?” strategy, which could make the learner rethink the geometrical concepts he uses while creating new problems, make connections between the given and the new concepts and as a result deepen his understanding of them.     

Numerische Ermittlung quasikonformer Abbildungen mit finiten Elementen

Summary In this note we consider so called p-analytic mappings of simply or doubly connected domains on rectangles or circular rings. Real and imaginary parts of the mappings can be described by minimal-principles. By minimizing the corresponding functionals in a class of linear or bilinear finite elements we obtain an approximation of the mapping and also upper and lower bounds for the p-module of a domain with polygonal boundary. Error bounds are given for smooth and for piecewise constant functionsp. We present numerical experiments.

     

On the numerical treatment of a small divisor problem

Summary Quasiperiodic solutions of perturbed integrable Hamiltonian equations such as weakly coupled harmonic oscillators can be found by constructing an appropriate coordinate transformation which leads to a small divisor problem. However the numerical difficulties are not merely caused by the small divisors but rather by the appearence of ghost solutions, which appear in any reasonable discretization of the problem. Our numerical treatment, based on a Newton-type iteration, guarantees an approximation of the relevant solution of the nonlinear problem. Numerical solutions are found up to a critical value of the coupling constant, which is much larger than the coupling constants allowed by the existence theory available so far.     

A new approach towards integrated cell formation and inventory lot sizing in an unreliable cellular manufacturing system

This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical model for integrated cell formation and inventory lot sizing problem. The proposed model seeks to minimize cell formation costs as well as the costs associated with production, while dynamic conditions, alternative routings, machine capacity limitation, operations sequences, cell size constraints, process deterioration, and machine breakdowns are also taken into account. The total cost consists of machine procurement, cell reconfiguration, preventive and corrective repairs, material handling (intra-cell and inter-cell), machine operation, part subcontracting, finished and unfinished parts inventory cost, and defective parts replacement costs. With respect to the multiple products, multiple process plans for each product and multiple routing alternatives for each process plan which are assumed in the proposed model, the model is combinatorial. Moreover, unreliability conditions are considered, because moving from “in-control” state to “out-of-control” state (process deterioration) and machine breakdowns make the model more practical and applicable. To conquer the breakdowns, preventive and corrective actions are adopted. Finally, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-based meta-heuristic is developed to overcome NP-completeness of the proposed model.