基于网络客户评论的产品口碑排序方法

电子商务时代,产品的网络口碑已成为消费者做购买决策的重要参考依据。本文利用客户评论信息,依据产品的评分及产品之间的对比投票数据,提出了一个新的产品口碑排序方法。首先利用产品两两间的对比投票计算各自的相对口碑,再采用贝叶斯平均方法修正原始客户评分,然后将二者结合得到产品的总口碑,进而对产品的网络口碑进行排序。实验数据采自第三方点评网站中的产品对比投票数据,实验结果表明本文提出的产品口碑排序方法具有较高的支持度,且与产品销量排序的相关性也很高。     

Comments on: A comparative analysis for determining optimal price and order quantity when a sale increases demand

Although the net present value (NPV) criterion is theoretically the correct approach to developing optimal inventory policies, in the classical EOQ case, the average profit criterion generates solutions that are practically identical to those resulting from the NPV criterion. Nevertheless, a recent paper suggests that, when the demand for a product is price-elastic and a wholesaler offers a one-time-only price discount, use of the average profit criterion may obtain policies that are drastically suboptimal compared to the policies obtained by using the NPV criterion. We show that this suggestion is based on inaccurate models and inconsistent comparisons. Although in cases of large one-time-only discounts, there may be significant differences in the policies and consequences resulting from the two criteria, such large discounts are unrealistic. Furthermore, the larger the discount, the less practicable are the optimal order quantities based on either one of these criteria. Thus, in most real-life situations, the use of the average profit criterion does not result in serious suboptimization. In these situations, what may be important is not whether a retailer uses the NPV criterion or the average profit criterion, but whether the retailer can and does implement the optimal decisions resulting from the use of either criterion.     

考虑策略型消费者和退货的零售商降价促销决策研究

基于零售商降价促销问题,引入策略型消费者,考虑到异质性消费者有可能对商品不满意,构建两期决策模型,旨在从退货和价格路径优化两方面提高零售商利润。研究给出(不)允许退货时,零售商面对策略型消费者的定价建议,指出零售商制定价格要在一定程度上参考商品类型。订货量相同时,给出策略型消费者降低零售商的期望利润的条件;面对短视型或者策略型消费者时,允许退货可在特定条件下提升零售商利润。消费者退货成本越高,对策略型消费者消极影响的抑制作用越明显,零售商的利润增长越显著。最后,通过数值算例分析了在两种退货决策以及不同退货成本下产品类型对零售商定价的影响,以及退货措施对策略型消费者消极影响的作用。     

面向战略型消费者的产品创新与定价策略

考虑垄断制造商面向战略型消费者时的产品创新与定价问题。运用消费者效用理论和博弈论等方法,构建静态和动态定价下制造商和消费者两期决策模型并求解分析。结果表明,消费者是否购买以及何时购买产品取决于升级换代产品的价格阈值。与静态定价相比较,动态定价能使制造商获得更多期望收益,但会降低消费者剩余、弱化制造商的产品创新积极性,并且这种弱化现象在产品价值折扣系数较高的情况下尤为明显。战略消费者购买行为对制造商的产品创新、期望收益和消费者剩余的影响,不仅依赖于制造商选择何种定价策略,还取决于产品价值折扣系数的大小。研究结论为消费者的产品购买和升级换代提供了理论建议,为企业的产品创新和定价提供了决策参考。     

Stochastic diffusion models with advertising and word-of-mouth effects

This paper presents a stochastic diffusion model which incorporates advertising word-of-mouth effects. The model defines a 3 variate stochastic process based on explicit assumptions regarding consumer behavior and consumers' response to advertising. The model generalizes a wide variety of advertising models and in addition includes several classes of consumers, interaction effects between these consumers and, of course, a stochastic framework that may be used for assessing the risk implications of advertising policies and for empirical analyses purposes.     

The continuous resupply policy for deteriorating items with stock-dependent observable demand in a two-warehouse and two-echelon supply chain

This paper expands previous work on stock-dependent demand for a retailer with a two-warehouse (OW/RW) situation to the case of deteriorating items and where the retailer seeks to obtain the integrated optimal distribution policy from collaboration with a supplier. Motivated by practical applications and recent literature, a policy is considered whereby products in good order from the retailer’s back-room (RW) are frequently transferred to its capacitated main store OW. Because the demand depends on the stock of good products in the OW, the aim is to keep this stock at its full capacity with products in good condition, and this can be done for as long as the RW stock of good products is positive. A firm’s objective function is the Net Present Value (NPV) of the firm’s future cash-flows. The profit functions are developed for both this continuous resupply policy and the commonly used policy in the OW/RW literature. Numerical examples are included and have been solved with grid search methods. The examples illustrate the benefits of adopting the continuous resupply policy, and also collaboration between the retailer and the wholesaler. Moreover, it is shown how these benefits can be shared by small adjustments to the product’s unit price between the firms.     

基于在线评论的多个竞争制造商和零售商的产品定价策略

在线评论作为一种产品信息传播载体,越来越受到网上电商及消费者的重视,并在很大程度上影响消费者的购买决策。本文在多个竞争性制造商为在线零售商提供可替代性产品并通过零售商销售给网络消费者的电子商务环境下,研究在线评论信息如何影响网络消费者购买决策及在线零售商和制造商的定价策略。以neo-Hoteling模型为基础,构建了依赖零售渠道在线评论的消费者选择模型,并通过模型求解定量分析了二级供应链结构分散系统下在线评论对多个竞争性制造商及零售商最优决策的影响。得到当制造商基于评论制定最优定价策略时,在线评论对市场竞争强度没有影响,但决定潜在市场大小;各产品的均衡批发价及销售价按一定的比例随评论揭示的该产品与其他产品质量均值之差(正或负)增加或减少,评论信息通常会使制造商因好评而获利,由于评论增加了不同产品需求的不对称性,零售商因而具有更大的调价空间,往往通过提高(降低)占据有利(不利)评论的产品价格获得更高的利润。     

Nash game model for optimizing market strategies,configuration of platform products in a Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) supply chain for a product family

This paper discusses how a manufacturer and its retailers interact with each other to optimize their product marketing strategies, platform product configuration and inventory policies in a VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory) supply chain. The manufacturer procures raw materials from multiple suppliers to produce a family of products sold to multiple retailers. Multiple types of products are substitutable each other to end customers. The manufacturer makes its decision on raw materials’ procurement, platform product configuration, product replenishment policies to retailers with VMI, price discount rate, and advertising investment to maximize its profit. Retailers in turn consider the optimal local advertising investments and retail prices to maximize their profits. This problem is modeled as a dual simultaneous non-cooperative game (as a dual Nash game) model with two sub-games. One is between the retailers serving in competing retail markets and the other is between the manufacturer and the retailers. This paper combines analytical, iterative and GA (genetic algorithm) methods to develop a game solution algorithm to find the Nash equilibrium. A numerical example is conducted to test the proposed model and algorithm, and gain managerial implications.     

Optimal cooperative advertising integration strategy for organizations adding a direct online channel

Since the advent of the Web, retailers who served consumers offline (ie in stores or via catalogue) have grappled with how to effectively integrate the Internet into their marketing strategies and tactics. Clearly, how a firm elects to integrate the Internet into its retailing process, and how it coordinates offline and online strategic decisions, can impact its performance. In this paper, we examine integration decisions from a cooperative advertising perspective to determine the profitability of various integration strategies. We find that profit is greater when using a ‘partial-integration’ strategy rather than a ‘separation’ strategy; moreover, we find that profit is yet greater when using a ‘full-integration’ strategy rather than a ‘partial-integration’ strategy.     

考虑跟随企业搭便车行为的创新企业定价策略研究

文章通过构建博弈模型探讨了存在跟随企业搭便车行为时创新企业的定价策略及定价模式(稳定定价或动态定价),并分析了忠实消费者规模及需求溢出效应等特征对创新企业定价决策与利润的影响.结果表明,无论创新企业采用稳定定价或动态定价模式,跟随企业搭便车行为均会降低创新企业利润,需求溢出效应的增强总能使创新企业和跟随企业均获得更高的...     

A note on inventory policies for products with residual-life-dependent demand

We study inventory ordering policies for products that attract demand at a decreasing rate as they approach the end of their usable lifetime, for example, perishable items nearing expiration. We consider the “product freshness’’, or equivalently, the time until expiration (“residual life”) as a factor influencing the customer demand. In a profit-maximizing framework, we build on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) replenishment model and formulate the inventory ordering problem using a deterministic demand function that is concave decreasing in the the age of the product. We provide analytical results on the optimal ordering policy, including an explicit characterization of the decisions in the linear-demand case, and we develop an easy-to-implement adaptive heuristic policy for the general case. Numerical examples show that the optimal policy generates significant profit gains compared to the traditional cost-based policies and the adaptive heuristic policy performs highly satisfactorily in the tested instances.     

绿色产品零售企业与市场消费者策略选择演化分析

线上线下结合营销模式有效缓解了流通渠道不畅和营销方式单一的问题,进而促进绿色产品消费。在相关假设的基础上,通过构建绿色产品零售企业和市场消费者的演化博弈模型,重现博弈主体的动态演进过程。研究结果表明,在线上线下结合营销模式中,绿色产品零售企业与消费者演化博弈系统存在两个可能的均衡状态,分别是O{维持传统营销策略,使用传统渠道购买产品}、C{建立线上营销策略,使用线上渠道购买产品}。演化博弈系统的演进受到9个相关因素的干扰,这些因素通过影响博弈主体的收益、成本及潜在的风险损失等发生作用。在理论推导的基础上,以被调研的A绿色产品零售企业为样本进行数值模拟,验证理论推导的正确性,给出上述影响因素的作用强度。     

基于agent仿真的在线客户评论传播机制研究

随着互联网技术的日益发达,网民数量激增,网络口碑在顾客购买决策方面的影响效用越来越显著。在线客户评论作为一种重要的网络口碑传播方式越来越受到企业的重视。不同于以往从实证的角度对在线客户评论影响因素进行研究的文献,本文从在线客户评论的网络传播机制出发,构建在线客户评论的口碑传播模型。而后本文通过Swarm平台进行模拟仿真,主要研究了论坛作为个体在口碑传播中所起到的作用,为网络口碑的研究提供新的思路。本文研究发现在线客户评论的影响机制和因素,为企业更好的开展网络口碑营销提供借鉴。     

The impact of consumer returns policies on consignment contracts with inventory control

We consider a consignment contract with consumer non-defective returns behavior. In our model, an upstream vendor contracts with a downstream retailer. The vendor decides his consignment price charged to the retailer for each unit sold and his refund price for each returned item, and then the retailer sets her retail price for selling the product. The vendor gets paid based on net sold units and salvages unsold units as well as returned items in a secondary market. Under the framework, we study and compare two different consignment arrangements: the retailer/vendor manages consignment inventory (RMCI/VMCI) programs. To study the impact of return policy, we discuss a consignment contract without return policy as a benchmark. We show that whether or not the vendor offers a return policy, it is always beneficial for the channel to delegate the inventory decision to the vendor. We find that the vendor’s return policy depends crucially on the salvage value of returns. If the product has no salvage value, the vendor’s optimal decision is not to offer a return policy; otherwise, the vendor can gain more profit by offering a return policy when the salvage value turns out to be positive.     

Capacity and price setting for dispersed,time-sensitive customer segments

We consider joint pricing and capacity decisions for a facility serving heterogeneous consumers that span a continuous range of locations, and are sensitive to time delays. Within this context, we analyze two contrasting service strategies: segmentation and pooling. Consumer segments differ with respect to their reservation prices and time sensitivities, and are dispersed over a single distance dimension. The firm serves these consumers using a process that we initially model as an M/M/1 queuing system. We analyze profit-maximizing price and capacity levels for a monopolist, and contrast the optimal segmentation and pooling policies. We find that when consumers are time sensitive, and can expect queuing delays at the firm’s facility (due to random arrival and service times), then scale economies from pooling can outweigh segmentation benefits. Yet, segmentation outperforms pooling when consumer segments differ substantively, in which case the firm can use capacity as a lever to price discriminate between the segments. Moreover, by contrasting a dedicated-services strategy, which directly targets specific segments and serves them separately, with the alternative of allowing consumers to self-select, we find that self-selection has a moderate negative influence on profits. We also examine the profit impact of employing alternative queuing systems, and find that a hybrid strategy based on a prioritized queuing discipline, that combines elements of segmentation (by offering different waiting times) and pooling (by sharing capacity across consumer segments), can outperform both the pure segmentation and pooling strategies.     

考虑产品环境质量和消费者惯性的电动汽车供应链策略分析

按是否拥有传统汽车将潜在消费者分成两类,基于不同购买行为的消费者,根据消费者购买行为理论,针对每一类消费者分别建立效用模型,运用斯坦伯格博弈理论求解得到厂商的最优定价策略和政府的最优补贴策略,进而分析政府考虑包括厂商收益、消费者剩余、政府支出以及环境效益在内的社会福利最大化时电动汽车的环境质量、传统汽车原拥有比例以及消费者惯性三因素对电动汽车普及率、政府补贴以及生产商收益的影响。研究结果表明:当生产成本小于某阀值时,电动汽车的市场需求随电动汽车的环境质量的增加而增大,传统汽车的市场需求则随之减小,反之亦然。电动汽车的生产效率较高时,政府的最优补贴随产品环境质量的增加而增大,生产效率较低时,最优补贴随之减小,政府通过增大补贴的方式鼓励生产商提高生产效率。最后通过数值实验验证了以上结论,并分析得到以上三方面因素对生产商收益的影响。     

Analysis and design of returns policies from a supplier's perspective

This paper considers the problem of designing a returns policy in a supply chain from a supplier's perspective. The supply chain considered here is assumed to have one supplier and one retailer who serves a random demand of a product with a short life cycle. The retailer can return all the unsold products to the supplier with a partial refund. We found that if the retailer behaviour is rational, that is, ordering the optimal quantity to maximize its expected profit, then both retailer and supplier could benefit from the returns policy. Furthermore, we established that the optimal buyback price is independent of the mean of the random demand, but the variance of the demand has a significant impact on setting the optimal buyback price. The higher the variance the higher the optimal buyback price and the larger the profit gain of both parties. Numerical studies are employed to help understand the benefits of returns policies for the supplier, the retailer, and the whole supply chain.     

Product damage and free sampling: a newsvendor model with passive and proactive self-consumption

A retailer sells a single product for a single period. During transportation and storage, some of these products are consumed by the retailer either (1) due to unavoidable damages (passive self-consumption), or (2) distributed for free to the customers (proactive self-consumption). This creates a mismatch between the amount purchased by the retailer and the amount available for sale. We study passive self-consumption with (i) fixed and (ii) proportional consumption, and proactive self-consumption with (iii) additive and (iv) multiplicative demand. Under proactive self-consumption, the retailer holds more inventory and receives a higher profit; the reverse is true under passive self-consumption. Yet, (i), (iii) and (iv) result in a higher order quantity and same fill rate compared to no self-consumption, (ii) may result in a higher or lower order quantity with a lower fill rate. When both types of self-consumption coexist, the optimal policy can be complicated. We characterize the optimal policy and show through numerical studies that the optimal policy can take at most three formats: sell to the market with positive proactive self-consumption, sell to the market with zero proactive self-consumption and do not sell to the market. Interestingly, the optimal order quantity is not smooth in the fraction of the proportional self-consumption. Further we find that when the market adoption rate is uncertain, the optimal strategy preserves a similar structure. The retailer benefits from expediting if the difference between the high and the low market adoption rates is high and the probability of a high market adoption rate is low.     

Assortment optimization under a multinomial logit model with position bias and social influence

Motivated by applications in retail, online advertising, and cultural markets, this paper studies the problem of finding an optimal assortment and positioning of products subject to a capacity constraint in a setting where consumers preferences can be modeled as a discrete choice under a multinomial logit model that captures the intrinsic product appeal, position biases, and social influence. For the static problem, we prove that the optimal assortment and positioning can be found in polynomial time. This is despite the fact that adding a product to the assortment may increase the probability of selecting the no-choice option, a phenomenon not observed in almost all models studied in the literature. We then consider the dynamics of such a market, where consumers are influenced by the aggregate past purchases. In this dynamic setting, we provide a small example to show that the natural and often used policy known as popularity ranking, that ranks products in decreasing order of the number of purchases, can reduce the expected profit as times goes by. We then prove that a greedy policy that applies the static optimal assortment and positioning at each period, always benefits from the popularity signal and outperforms any policy where consumers cannot observe the number of past purchases (in expectation).     

Responsive pricing under supply uncertainty

Consider a retailer orders a seasonal product from a supplier and sells the product over a selling season. While the product demand is known to be a linear function of price, the supply yield is uncertain and is distributed according to a general discrete probability distribution. This paper presents a two-stage stochastic model for analyzing two pricing policies: No Responsive Pricing and Responsive Pricing. Under the No Responsive Pricing policy, the retailer would determine the order quantity and the retail price before the supply yield is realized. Under the Responsive Pricing policy, the retailer would specify the order quantity first and then decide on the retail price after observing the realized supply yield. Therefore, the Responsive Pricing policy enables the retailer to use pricing as a response mechanism for managing uncertain supply. Our analysis suggests that the retailer would always obtain a higher expected profit under the Responsive Pricing policy. In addition to examining the impact of yield distribution and system parameters on the optimal order quantities, retail prices, and profits under these two pricing policies, we analyze two issues arising from responsive pricing. The first issue deals with the case in which the retailer can place an emergency order with an alternative source after observing the realized yield, while the second issue deals with a situation in which the retailer has to allocate his order among multiple suppliers.