Stochastic Lagrangian Relaxation Applied to Power Scheduling in a Hydro-Thermal System under Uncertainty

A dynamic (multi-stage) stochastic programming model for the weekly cost-optimal generation of electric power in a hydro-thermal generation system under uncertain demand (or load) is developed. The model involves a large number of mixed-integer (stochastic) decision variables and constraints linking time periods and operating power units. A stochastic Lagrangian relaxation scheme is designed by assigning (stochastic) multipliers to all constraints coupling power units. It is assumed that the stochastic load process is given (or approximated) by a finite number of realizations (scenarios) in scenario tree form. Solving the dual by a bundle subgradient method leads to a successive decomposition into stochastic single (thermal or hydro) unit subproblems. The stochastic thermal and hydro subproblems are solved by a stochastic dynamic programming technique and by a specific descent algorithm, respectively. A Lagrangian heuristics that provides approximate solutions for the first stage (primal) decisions starting from the optimal (stochastic) multipliers is developed. Numerical results are presented for realistic data from a German power utility and for numbers of scenarios ranging from 5 to 100 and a time horizon of 168 hours. The sizes of the corresponding optimization problems go up to 200000 binary and 350000 continuous variables, and more than 500000 constraints.     

SDDP for multistage stochastic programs: preprocessing via scenario reduction

Even with recent enhancements, computation times for large-scale multistage problems with risk-averse objective functions can be very long. Therefore, preprocessing via scenario reduction could be considered as a way to significantly improve the overall performance. Stage-wise backward reduction of single scenarios applied to a fixed branching structure of the tree is a promising tool for efficient algorithms like stochastic dual dynamic programming. We provide computational results which show an acceptable precision of the results for the reduced problem and a substantial decrease of the total computation time.     

Transient policies in discrete dynamic programming: Linear programming including suboptimality tests and additional constraints

This paper investigates the computation of transient-optimal policies in discrete dynamic programming. The model, is quite general: it may contain transient as well as nontransient policies. and the transition matrices are not necessarily substochastic. A functional equation for the so-called transient-value-vector is derived and the concept of superharmonicity is introduced. This concept provides the linear program to compute the transientvalue-vector and a transient-optimal policy. We also discuss the elimination of suboptimal actions, the solution of problems with additional constraints, and the computation of an efficient policy for a multiple objective dynamic programming problem.     

Constraint programming for stochastic inventory systems under shortage cost

One of the most important policies adopted in inventory control is the replenishment cycle policy. Such a policy provides an effective means of damping planning instability and coping with demand uncertainty. In this paper we develop a constraint programming approach able to compute optimal replenishment cycle policy parameters under non-stationary stochastic demand, ordering, holding and shortage costs. We show how in our model it is possible to exploit the convexity of the cost-function during the search to dynamically compute bounds and perform cost-based filtering. Our computational experience show the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, we use the optimal solutions to analyze the quality of the solutions provided by an existing approximate mixed integer programming approach that exploits a piecewise linear approximation for the cost function.     

Scenario optimization

Uncertainty in the parameters of a mathematical program may present a modeller with considerable difficulties. Most approaches in the stochastic programming literature place an apparent heavy data and computational burden on the user and as such are often intractable. Moreover, the models themselves are difficult to understand. This probably explains why one seldom sees a fundamentally stochastic model being solved using stochastic programming techniques. Instead, it is common practice to solve a deterministic model with different assumed scenarios for the random coefficients. In this paper we present a simple approach to solving a stochastic model, based on a particular method for combining such scenario solutions into a single, feasible policy. The approach is computationally simple and easy to understand. Because of its generality, it can handle multiple competing objectives, complex stochastic constraints and may be applied in contexts other than optimization. To illustrate our model, we consider two distinct, important applications: the optimal management of a hydro-thermal generating system and an application taken from portfolio optimization.     

Book review of advances in gabor analysis,applied and numerical harmonic analysis,Hans G. Feichtinger and Thomas Strohmer (Eds.), Birkhäuser,Boston-Basel-Berlin, 2002, 356 pages. ISBN 0-8176-4239-0

In some recent publications it was shown that certain stationary stochastic dynamic programming problems with general state and action spaces can be solved by generalized linear programming. It Is the main aim of the present paper to demonstrate that a similar linear programming approach is feasible even in the non-stationary case. For this end, we formulate a programming problem (D^?) and show that (D^?) is equivalent to the problem of finding a p=optimal policy for the stochastic dynamic program, whereas a modification of (D^?) turns out to be the dual program of a pair of general linear programs.     

规避风险的多阶段最优库存研究

基于市场需求是随机的,并且在进行市场销售前,就要确定每个阶段的生产数量的背景下,建立了具有规避风险的多阶段库存凸随机规划模型.该模型以最小化损失函数的期望值为目标函数,以规避风险为约束条件,以价值风险(VaR)和条件价值风险(CVaR)为风险度量;采用样本平均近似方法(SAA)求解该模型,并分析样本平均近似方法的收敛性;最后,给出数值结果.     

求解随机凸规划概率约束问题的对偶算法

1引言随机规划中的概率约束问题在工程和管理中有广泛的应用.因为问题中包含非线性的概率约束,它们的求解非常困难.如果目标函数是线性的,问题的求解就比较容易.给出了一个求解随机线性规划概率约束问题的综述.原-对偶算法和切平面算法是比较有效的.在本文中,我们讨论随机凸规划概率约束问题:     

Dynamic sampling algorithms for multi-stage stochastic programs with risk aversion

We consider the incorporation of a time-consistent coherent risk measure into a multi-stage stochastic programming model, so that the model can be solved using a SDDP-type algorithm. We describe the implementation of this algorithm, and study the solutions it gives for an application of hydro-thermal scheduling in the New Zealand electricity system. The performance of policies using this risk measure at different levels of risk aversion is compared with the risk-neutral policy.     

On sample size control in sample average approximations for solving smooth stochastic programs

We consider smooth stochastic programs and develop a discrete-time optimal-control problem for adaptively selecting sample sizes in a class of algorithms based on variable sample average approximations (VSAA). The control problem aims to minimize the expected computational cost to obtain a near-optimal solution of a stochastic program and is solved approximately using dynamic programming. The optimal-control problem depends on unknown parameters such as rate of convergence, computational cost per iteration, and sampling error. Hence, we implement the approach within a receding-horizon framework where parameters are estimated and the optimal-control problem is solved repeatedly during the calculations of a VSAA algorithm. The resulting sample-size selection policy consistently produces near-optimal solutions in short computing times as compared to other plausible policies in several numerical examples.     

SDDP for some interstage dependent risk-averse problems and application to hydro-thermal planning

We consider interstage dependent stochastic linear programs where both the random right-hand side and the model of the underlying stochastic process have a special structure. Namely, for equality constraints (resp. inequality constraints) the right-hand side is an affine function (resp. a given function b _t ) of the process value for the current time step t. As for m-th component of the process at time step t, it depends on previous values of the process through a function h _tm . For this type of problem, to obtain an approximate policy under some assumptions for functions b _t and h _tm , we detail a stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. Our analysis includes some enhancements of this algorithm such as the definition of a state vector of minimal size, the computation of feasibility cuts without the assumption of relatively complete recourse, as well as efficient formulas for sharing optimality and feasibility cuts between nodes of the same stage. The algorithm is given for both a non-risk-averse and a risk-averse model. We finally provide preliminary results comparing the performances of the recourse functions corresponding to these two models for a real-life application.     

Piecewise affine approximations for the control of a one-reservoir hydroelectric system

We analyze the computation of optimal and approximately optimal policies for a discrete-time model of a single reservoir whose discharges generate hydroelectric power. Inflows in successive periods are random variables. Revenue from hydroelectric production is represented by a piecewise linear function. We use the special structure of optimal policies, together with piecewise affine approximations of the optimal return functions at each stage of dynamic programming, to decrease the computational effort by an order of magnitude compared with ordinary value iteration. The method is then used to obtain easily computable lower and upper bounds on the value function of an optimal policy, and a policy whose value function is between the bounds.     

Dynamic channel control and pricing of a single perishable product on multiple distribution channels

This paper studies dynamic channel control and pricing of a single perishable product distributed through multiple channels with the objective of maximizing the total expected profit over a finite horizon. We consider two types of commissions, namely proportional and fixed commissions, on the third-party channels and utilize stylized linear functions to characterize dependent demand flows from different channels. We show that, the magnitude of the opportunity cost of capacity uniquely determines the optimal channel control, at any given inventory level and periods to go. Consequently, we are able to derive the optimal price offered on each channel as a function of the opportunity cost of capacity in closed form. This significantly reduces the computational complexity of the stochastic dynamic program when parameters are constant with time. When channels are independent, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimality of a nested channel control policy by commission rates. The same condition is also sufficient for the optimality of the nested channel control policy in a distribution system with two dependent channels. We then characterize the structural properties of the optimal pricing and channel control policies. Finally, we explore the impact of the substitution effect on the channel control through numerical studies and gain managerial insights.     

Stochastic dual dynamic programming applied to nonconvex hydrothermal models

In this paper we apply stochastic dual dynamic programming decomposition to a nonconvex multistage stochastic hydrothermal model where the nonlinear water head effects on production and the nonlinear dependence between the reservoir head and the reservoir volume are modeled. The nonconvex constraints that represent the production function of a hydro plant are approximated by McCormick envelopes. These constraints are split into smaller regions and the McCormick envelopes are used for each region. We use binary variables for this disjunctive programming approach and solve the problem with a decomposition method. We resort to a variant of the L-shaped method for solving the MIP subproblem with binary variables at any stage inside the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. A realistic large-scale case study is presented.     

Optimal bidding of a virtual power plant on the Spanish day-ahead and intraday market for electricity

We develop a multi-stage stochastic programming approach to optimize the bidding strategy of a virtual power plant (VPP) operating on the Spanish spot market for electricity. The VPP markets electricity produced in the wind parks it manages on the day-ahead market and on six staggered auction-based intraday markets. Uncertainty enters the problem via stochastic electricity prices as well as uncertain wind energy production. We set up the problem of bidding for one day of operation as a Markov decision process (MDP) that is solved using a variant of the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. We conduct an extensive out-of-sample comparison demonstrating that the optimal policy obtained by the stochastic program clearly outperforms deterministic planning, a pure day-ahead strategy, a benchmark that only uses the day-ahead market and the first intraday market, as well as a proprietary stochastic programming approach developed in the industry. Furthermore, we study the effect of risk aversion as modeled by the nested Conditional Value-at-Risk as well as the impact of changes in various problem parameters.     

Multi-stage stochastic programming models for provisioning cloud computing resources

We focus on the resource provisioning problem of a cloud consumer from an Infrastructure-as-a-Service type of cloud. The cloud provider offers two deployment options, which can be mixed and matched as appropriate. Cloud instances may be reserved for a fixed time period in advance at a smaller usage cost per hour but require a full commitment and payment for the entire contract duration. In contrast, on-demand instances reflect a pay-as-you-go policy at a premium. The trade-off between these two options is rooted in the inherent uncertainty in demand and price and makes it attractive to complement a base reserved capacity with on-demand capacity to hedge against the spikes in demand. This paper provides several novel multi-stage stochastic programming formulations to enable a cloud consumer to handle the cloud resource provisioning problem at a tactical level. We first formulate the cloud resource provisioning problem as a risk-neutral multi-stage stochastic program, which serves as the base model for further modeling variants. In our second set of models, we also incorporate a certain concept of system reliability. In particular, chance constraints integrated into the base formulation require a minimum service level met from reserved capacity, provide more visibility into the future available capacity, and smooth out expensive on-demand usage by hedging against possible demand fluctuations. An extensive computational study demonstrates the value of the proposed models by discussing computational performance, gleaning practical managerial insights from the analysis of the solutions of the proposed models, and quantifying the value of the stochastic solutions.     

Dynamic Lagrangian dual and reduced RLT constructs for solving 0–1 mixed-integer programs

In this paper, we consider a dynamic Lagrangian dual optimization procedure for solving mixed-integer 0–1 linear programming problems. Similarly to delayed relax-and-cut approaches, the procedure dynamically appends valid inequalities to the linear programming relaxation as induced by the Reformulation-Linearization Technique (RLT). A Lagrangian dual algorithm that is augmented with a primal solution recovery scheme is applied implicitly to a full or partial first-level RLT relaxation, where RLT constraints that are currently being violated by the primal estimate are dynamically generated within the Lagrangian dual problem, thus controlling the size of the dual space while effectively capturing the strength of the RLT-enhanced relaxation. We present a preliminary computational study to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.     

An inventory-transportation system with stochastic demand

We study a logistic system in which a supplier has to deliver a set of products to a set of retailers to face a stochastic demand over a given time horizon. The transportation from the supplier to each retailer can be performed either directly, by expensive and fast vehicles, or through an intermediate depot, by less expensive but slower vehicles. At most one time period is required in the former case, while two time periods are needed in the latter case. A variable transportation cost is charged in the former case, while a fixed transportation cost per journey is charged in the latter case. An inventory cost is charged at the intermediate depot. The problem is to determine, for each time period and for each product, the quantity to send from the supplier to the depot, from the depot to each retailer and from the supplier to each retailer, in order to minimize the total expected cost. We first show that the classical benchmark policy, in which the demand of each product at each retailer is set equal to the average demand, can give a solution which is infinitely worse with respect to the optimal solution. Then, we propose two classes of policies to solve this problem. The first class, referred to as Horizon Policies, is composed of policies which require the solution of the overall problem over the time horizon. The second class, referred to as Reoptimization Policies, is composed of a myopic policy and several rolling-horizon policies in which the problem is reoptimized at each time period, once the demand of the time period is revealed. We evaluate the performance of each policy dynamically, by using Monte Carlo Simulation.     

Managing capacity flexibility in make-to-order production environments

This paper addresses the problem of managing flexible production capacity in a make-to-order (MTO) manufacturing environment. We present a multi-period capacity management model where we distinguish between process flexibility (the ability to produce multiple products on multiple production lines) and operational flexibility (the ability to dynamically change capacity allocations among different product families over time). For operational flexibility, we consider two polices: a fixed allocation policy where the capacity allocations are fixed throughout the planning horizon and a dynamic allocation policy where the capacity allocations change from period to period. The former approach is modeled as a single-stage stochastic program and solved using a cutting-plane method. The latter approach is modeled as a multi-stage stochastic program and a sampling-based decomposition method is presented to identify a feasible policy and assess the quality of that policy. A computational experiment quantifies the benefits of operational flexibility and demonstrates that it is most beneficial when the demand and capacity are well-balanced and the demand variability is high. Additionally, our results reveal that myopic operating policies may lead a firm to adopt more process flexibility and form denser flexibility configuration chains. That is, process flexibility may be over-valued in the literature since it is assumed that a firm will operate optimally after the process flexibility decision. We also show that the value of process flexibility increases with the number of periods in the planning horizon if an optimal operating policy is employed. This result is reversed if a myopic allocation policy is adopted instead.     

Calculating risk neutral probabilities and optimal portfolio policies in a dynamic investment model with downside risk control

This paper presents a method for solving multiperiod investment models with downside risk control characterized by the portfolio’s worst outcome. The stochastic programming problem is decomposed into two subproblems: a nonlinear optimization model identifying the optimal terminal wealth distribution and a stochastic linear programming model replicating the identified optimal portfolio wealth. The replicating portfolio coincides with the optimal solution to the investor’s problem if the market is frictionless. The multiperiod stochastic linear programming model tests for the absence of arbitrage opportunities and its dual feasible solutions generate all risk neutral probability measures. When there are constraints such as liquidity or position requirements, the method yields approximate portfolio policies by minimizing the initial cost of the replication portfolio. A numerical example illustrates the difference between the replicating result and the optimal unconstrained portfolio.