Selling to the “Newsvendor” with a forecast update: Analysis of a dual purchase contract

We consider a supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a procure-to-stock retailer facing a newsvendor problem with a forecast update. Under a wholesale price contract, the retailer waits as long as she can and optimally places her order after observing the forecast update. We show that the retailer’s wait-and-decide strategy, induced by the wholesale price contract, hinders the manufacturer’s ability to (1) set the wholesale price and maximize his profit, (2) hedge against excess inventory risk, and (3) reduce his profit uncertainty. To mitigate the adverse effect of wholesale price contract, we propose the dual purchase contract, through which the manufacturer provides a discount for orders placed before the forecast update. We characterize how and when a dual purchase contract creates strict Pareto improvement over a wholesale price contract. To do so, we establish the retailer’s optimal ordering policy and the manufacturer’s optimal pricing and production policies. We show how the dual purchase contract reduces profit variability and how it can be used as a risk hedging tool for a risk averse manufacturer. Through a numerical study, we provide additional managerial insights and show, for example, that market uncertainty is a key factor that defines when the dual purchase contract provides strict Pareto improvement over the wholesale price contract.     

A rewarding-punishing coordination mechanism based on Trust in a divergent supply chain

Coordination of decentralized supply chains using contract design is a problem that has been widely addressed in the literature. We consider a divergent supply chain including a supplier and several retailers producing fashion products with short sale seasons. The retailers cooperate with the supplier as sales agents; i.e., they work in the framework of revenue sharing contracts. Because of their proximity to the market, retailers can provide more accurate demand forecasts to the supplier that is used to decide on issues such as capacity building and market prices with regard to retailers stiff due dates, different lead times and different price-dependent demand functions. To ensure abundant supply and cope with the demand variability, the retailers have an incentive to exaggerate their private forecast information. In this study, we propose a new rewarding-punishing coordination mechanism based on trust between supply chain tiers, considered as a differentiation factor between honest and deceptive partners. An optimization model is developed as a building block of this mechanism. An approximation method is used to simplify and solve the problem. The model is then implemented using Monte-Carlo simulation in four different situations, according to 10 different strategies for forecast information sharing. The findings from the tests show that the mechanism including trust as a decisional factor performs better than ‘No Trust’ mechanism in all situations. These results suggest that taking into account Trust in designing coordination mechanism may have significant influence on the financial performance of the supply chain.     

Channel incentives in sharing new product demand information and robust contracts

Demand for a new product is often highly uncertain. As the developer of a new product, the manufacturer may reduce the uncertainty of the product’s demand through observing progress in his product development process or receiving demand signals directly from customers. This paper first shows that a centralized channel always benefits from improved demand information. Yet, to realize this benefit in a decentralized manufacturer–retailer channel, the manufacturer needs to disclose his private demand information to the retailer. We show that the manufacturer’s incentive to share his improved demand information depends on the supply contract signed with the retailer. Furthermore, mandating the manufacturer to disclose his improved demand information can actually reduce the total channel profit. We provide managerial insights by analyzing three widely used contract forms. We investigate whether these contracts are robust under an unanticipated demand information update observed by the manufacturer. We show that the quantity flexibility contract with a high return rate is not robust. The buyback contract, however, is robust and always achieves information sharing while preserving channel performance.     

随机需求下考虑零售商竞争的闭环供应链定价与协调

在随机需求环境下考虑两零售商间存在竞争的闭环供应链定价与协调问题, 其中两个零售商各自面临不同的随机市场需求,并且各自的回收量都受到对方回收价格的影响。在集中决策和分散决策两种情形下分析了制造商和两零售商的定价决策问题,并运用收入费用共享契约实现了闭环供应链的协调。     

Coordination mechanism for the supply chain with leadtime consideration and price-dependent demand

We study a coordination contract for a supplier–retailer channel producing and selling a fashionable product exhibiting a stochastic price-dependent demand. The product’s selling season is short, and the supply chain faces great demand uncertainty. We consider a scenario where the supplier reserves production capacity for the retailer in advance, and permits the retailer to place an order not exceeding the reserved capacity after a demand information update during a leadtime. We formulate a two-stage optimization problem in which the supplier decides the amount of capacity reservation in the first stage, and the retailer determines the order quantity and the retail price after observing the demand information in the second stage. We propose a three-parameter risk and profit sharing contract that coordinates the supply chain. The proposed contract permits any agreed-upon division of the supply-chain profit between the channel members.     

Using shared sell-through data to forecast wholesaler demand in multi-echelon supply chains

Operational forecasting in supply chain management supports a variety of short-term planning decisions, such as production scheduling and inventory management. In this respect, improving short-term forecast accuracy is a way to build a more agile supply chain for manufacturing companies. Demand forecasting often relies on well-established univariate forecasting methods to extrapolate historical demand. Collaboration across the supply chain, including information sharing, is suggested in the literature to improve upon the forecast accuracy of such traditional methods. In this paper, we review empirical studies considering the use of downstream information in demand forecasting and investigate different modeling approaches and forecasting methods to incorporate such data. Where empirical findings on information sharing mainly focus on point-of-sale data in two-level supply chains, this research empirically investigates the added value of using sell-through data originating from intermediaries, next to historical demand figures, in a multi-echelon supply chain. In a case study concerning a US drug manufacturer, we evaluate different methods to incorporate this data and consider both time series methods and machine learning techniques to produce multi-step ahead weekly forecasts. The results show that the manufacturer can effectively improve its short-term forecast accuracy by integrating sell-through data into the forecasting process and provide useful insights as to the different modeling approaches used. The conclusion holds for all forecast horizons considered, though it is most pronounced for one-step ahead forecasts. Therefore, our research provides a clear incentive for manufacturers to assess the forecast accuracy that can be achieved by using sell-through data.     

货架展示量与定价模型及供应链协调分析

针对单生产商和单零售商组成的供应链,假定需求依赖于货架展示量与零售价格,分别建立了集中式控制下和分散式控制下的货架展示量与定价决策模型,给出了协调供应链的批发价加货架补贴合同。针对单生产商和n个零售商组成的供应链,假定总需求是n个零售商的总货架展示量和平均零售价格的函数、每个零售商的需求与其货架展示相关的促销努力成正比,分析了相应的集中式与分散式决策,并给出了协调供应链的批发价加货架补贴加转移支付合同。     

Manufacturer’s revenue-sharing contract and retail competition

This paper investigates a revenue-sharing contract for coordinating a supply chain comprising one manufacturer and two competing retailers. The manufacturer, as a Stackelberg leader, offers a revenue-sharing contract to two competing retailers who face stochastic demand before the selling season. Under the offered contract terms, the competing retailers are to determine the quantities to be ordered from the manufacturer, prior to the season, and the retail price at which to sell the items during the season. The process of pricing and ordering is expected to result in an equilibrium as in the Bayesian Nash game. On the basis of anticipated responses and actions of the retailers, the manufacturer designs the revenue-sharing contract. Adopting the classic newsvendor problem model framework and using numerical methods, the study finds that the provision of revenue-sharing in the contract can obtain better performance than a price-only contract. However, the benefits earned under the revenue-sharing contract by different supply chain partners differ because of the impact of demand variability and price-sensitivity factors. The paper also analyses the impact of demand variability on decisions about optimal retail price, order quantity and profit sharing between the manufacturer and the retailers. Lastly, it investigates how the competition (between retailers) factor influences the decision-making of supply chain members in response to uncertain demand and profit variability.     

基于批发价契约的多零售商横向转载的供应链协调

研究了多零售商横向转载的供应链批发价契约协调问题。以包含一个制造商和多个零售商的供应链系统为研究对象,基于批发价契约研究了零售商转载下的供应链协调问题,获取了批发价契约可以协调零售商存在横向转载的供应链的理论证据,并给出了相应的产生供应链协调的条件,详细分析了协调情形下供应链系统最优订货量与多零售商无转载及单报童等情形下的最优订货量之间的关系。进一步研究了制造商与零售商在Stackelberg博弈下,零售商横向转载对制造商收益的影响,并提出了在Stackelberg博弈模型中,批发价契约也有可能促使制造商选择供应链系统最优订货量所对应的批发价格,使得供应链协调,且给出了此种协调产生的具体条件。数值算例则对两种供应链协调情形下的订货量、批发价格及期望收益进行了计算与仿真。研究表明,批发价契约可能会使得多零售商存在转载的供应链实现协调,传统的双重边际化效应将会由于制造商和零售商的理性而被弱化。     

Contracting with demand uncertainty under supply chain competition

We examine supply chain contracts for two competing supply chains selling a substitutable product, each consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. Both manufacturers are Stackelberg leaders and the retailers are followers. Manufacturers in two competing supply chains may choose different contracts, either a wholesale price contract in which the retailer??s demand forecasting information is not shared, or a revenue-sharing contract in which the retailer??s demand forecasting information is shared. Under supply chain competition and demand uncertainty, we identify which contract is more advantageous for each supply chain, and under what circumstances.     

Outsourcing to suppliers with unknown capabilities

We investigate the make-buy decision of a manufacturer who does not know its potential suppliers’ capabilities. In order to mitigate the consequences of this limited knowledge, the manufacturer can either perform in-house or audit suppliers. An audit reveals the audited supplier’s capability such that the manufacturer can base the make-buy decision on the audit outcome; the manufacturer might also learn from the audit and update its beliefs about the capabilities of the unaudited suppliers. Interestingly, using a very general model we find that the manufacturer’s decision can be independent of both the number of available suppliers and of the mechanism it uses to update its beliefs after an audit. We illustrate our general model by considering a possible application, where a manufacturer is making the outsource-audit decisions when the suppliers are more cost effective. However, when outsourcing to supplier, the manufacturer would face the uncertainty of whether or not the delivered task can integrate well with the other parts of the project.     

Demand forecast sharing in a dual-channel supply chain

We assess the benefits of sharing demand forecast information in a manufacturer–retailer supply chain, consisting of a traditional retail channel and a direct channel. The demand is a linear function of price with a Gaussian primary demand (i.e., zero-price market potential). Both the manufacturer and the retailer set their price based on their forecast of the primary demand. In this setting, we investigate the value of sharing demand forecasts. We analyze the ‘make-to-order’ scenario, in which prices are set before and production takes place after the primary demand is known, and the ‘make-to-stock’ scenario, in which production takes place and prices are set before the primary demand is known. We also compare the supply chain performance with and without the direct channel under some assumptions (production cost is zero, and each demand function has the same slope of price). We find that the direct channel has a negative impact on the retailer’s performance, and, under some conditions, the manufacturer and the whole supply chain are better off. Our research extends and complements prior research that has investigated only the inventory and replenishment-related benefits of information sharing.     

Coordinating ordering and pricing decisions in a two-stage distribution system with price-sensitive demand through short-term discounting

We consider a short-term discounting model in which the distributor offers a discounted price for the retailers’ orders placed at the beginning of its replenishment cycle, in a non-cooperative distribution system with one distributor and multiple retailers, each facing price-sensitive demand. We examine the value of the price discount strategy as a mechanism for the distributor to coordinate the retailers’ ordering and pricing decisions under two common types of demand, linear demand in price and constant elasticity demand in price. Our numerical study reveals that, in the presence of homogeneous retailers (namely, retailers with identical demand rates), the distributor’s profit improvement due to coordination generally decreases as the number of retailers or the inventory holding cost rate increases, but increases as price elasticity increases. Although an increase in the inventory holding cost rate has a negative effect on the distributor’s profit, it may have a positive effect on the retailers’ profits. We further find that with heterogeneous retailers (namely, retailers with different demand rates), offering a discounted price under linear demand benefits the distributor when both the inventory holding cost rate and the variation in demand are either small or large. This cross effect, however, is absent under constant elasticity demand.     

强制减排规制下基于碳减排利润增量分享契约的供应链协调研究

碳减排会增加制造商的成本,导致批发价和零售价提高,从而抑制市场需求。以此为背景,本文针对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的供应链,研究了强制减排规制下考虑消费者低碳偏好时的供应链决策与协调。通过设计碳减排利润增量分享契约协调制造商和零售商的决策,实现帕累托改进,利用Rubinstein讨价还价模型最终确定减排利润分享比例。研究发现,实施碳减排利润分享契约能有效提高零售商的订货量,并降低批发价格;制造商的利润随着消费者低碳意识提高而提高;当净化率较低时,零售商的利润随消费者低碳意识提高而提高;当净化率较高时,零售商的利润随消费者低碳意识提高而降低;最后,论文通过数值模拟验证了碳减排利润分享契约的有效性。     

A data mining approach to forecast behavior

This study presents a data mining analysis of forecasting patterns in a supply chain. Multiple customers who are auto manufacturers order from a large auto parts supplier. The auto manufacturers provide forecasts for future orders and update them before the due date. The supplier uses these forecasts to plan production in advance. The accuracy of the forecasts varies from customer to customer. We provide a framework to analyze the forecast performance of the customers. There are different complexities in forecasts that are captured from our data set. Daily flow analysis helps to transform data and obtain accuracy ratios of forecasts. Customers are then classified based on their forecast performances. We demonstrate the application of some recent developments in clustering and pattern recognition analysis to performance analysis of customers.     

A two-level supply chain with partial backordering and approximated Poisson demand

We consider a two-level supply chain with a number of identical, independent ‘retailers’ at the lower echelon and a single supplier at the upper echelon controlled by continuous review inventory policy (R, Q). Each retailer experiences Poisson demand with constant transportation times. We assume constant lead time for replenishing supplier orders from an external warehouse to the supplier and unsatisfied retailer orders are backordered in the supplier. We assume that the unsatisfied demand is partially backordered in the identical retailers. The partially backordering policy is implemented in the identical retailers using an explicit control parameter ‘b’ which limits the maximum number of backorders allowed to be accumulated during the lead time. We develop an approximate cost function to find optimal reorder points for given batch sizes in all installations, the optimal value of b in the identical retailers and the related accuracy is assessed through simulation.     

Optimal production and inventory rationing policies with selective-information sharing and two demand classes

This paper studies the impact of partner selection on the value of information sharing in a distribution system with one capacitated make-to-stock manufacturer and two retailers. When the high priority retailer with a higher shortfall cost is the sole partner, in the case that the low priority one places an order, the manufacturer allocates inventory more accurately according to more predictable orders from the high priority retailer. When only the low priority retailer shares information, the manufacturer is better informed about orders from this retailer, which shall trigger rationing decisions. Such intriguing differences in utilizing information from two prioritized retailers further induce different interactions between production and rationing policies and form two distinctive but closely related selective-information sharing systems. We characterize the manufacturer’s optimal production and rationing policies under both systems. Through a numerical study, we emphasize the effectiveness of partnering with the high priority retailer. When the manufacturer can establish information sharing links with only one retailer, such a choice usually brings more benefits despite differences in order sizes and/or demand rates of the two retailers. When a selective-information sharing system is the pilot run to full-information sharing, we find that the value of information throughout the implementation process often exhibits second-mover advantage and such a choice also helps the manufacturer create a more balanced return pattern. Finally, we illustrate that the cost-effectiveness of inventory rationing can be significant and optimally rationing inventory is the prerequisite for the superior of the selective-information sharing system with the high priority retailer.     

The freight consolidation and containerization problem

In today’s global free market, third-party logistics providers (3PLs) are becoming increasingly important. This paper studies a problem faced by a 3PL operating a warehouse in Shanghai, China, under contract with a major manufacturer of children’s clothing based in the United States. At the warehouse, the 3PL receives textile parcel shipments from the suppliers located in China; each shipment is destined for different retail stores located across the United Sates. These shipments must be consolidated and loaded into containers of varying sizes and costs, and then sent along shipping routes to different destination ports. An express company, such as UPS and FedEx, unloads the shipments from the containers at the destination ports and distributes them to their corresponding stores or retailers by parcel delivery. The objective is to find an allocation that minimizes the total container transportation and parcel delivery costs. We formulate the problem into an integer programming model, and also propose a memetic algorithm approach to solve the problem practically. A demonstration of a good solution to this problem was a decisive factor in the awarding of the contract to the 3PL in question.     

Contract type and decision right of sales promotion in supply chain management with a capital constrained retailer

From the practices of Chinese consumer electronics market, we find there are two key issues in supply chain management: The first issue is the contract type of either wholesale price contracts or consignment contracts with revenue sharing, and the second issue is the decision right of sales promotion (such as advertising, on-site shopping assistance, rebates, and post-sales service) owned by either manufacturers or retailers. We model a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer who has limited capital and faces deterministic demand depending on retail price and sales promotion. The two issues interact with each other. We show that only the combination (called as chain business mode) of a consignment contract with the manufacturer’s right of sales promotion or a wholesale price contract with the retailer’s right of sales promotion is better for both members. Moreover, the latter chain business mode is realized only when the retailer has more power in the chain and has enough capital, otherwise the former one is realized. But which one is preferred by customers? We find that the former is preferred by customers who mainly enjoy low price, while the latter is preferred by those who enjoy high sales promotion level.     

Repeated newsvendor game with transshipments under dual allocations

We study a repeated newsvendor game with transshipments. In every period n retailers face a stochastic demand for an identical product and independently place their inventory orders before demand realization. After observing the actual demand, each retailer decides how much of her leftover inventory or unsatisfied demand she wants to share with the other retailers. Residual inventories are then transshipped in order to meet residual demands, and dual allocations are used to distribute residual profit. Unsold inventories are salvaged at the end of the period. While in a single-shot game retailers in an equilibrium withhold their residuals, we show that it is a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium for the retailers to share all of the residuals when the discount factor is large enough and the game is repeated infinitely many times. We also study asymptotic behavior of the retailers’ order quantities and discount factors when n is large. Finally, we provide conditions under which a system-optimal solution can be achieved in a game with n retailers, and develop a contract for achieving a system-optimal outcome when these conditions are not satisfied.