System dynamics mapping of acute patient flows

Department of Health staff wished to use systems modelling to discuss acute patient flows with groups of NHS staff. The aim was to assess the usefulness of system dynamics (SD) in a healthcare context and to elicit proposals concerning ways of improving patient experience. Since time restrictions excluded simulation modelling, a hybrid approach using stock/flow symbols from SD was created. Initial interviews and hospital site visits generated a series of stock/flow maps. A ‘Conceptual Framework’ was then created to introduce the mapping symbols and to generate a series of questions about different patient paths and what might speed or slow patient flows. These materials formed the centre of three workshops for NHS staff. The participants were able to propose ideas for improving patient flows and the elicited data was subsequently employed to create a finalized suite of maps of a general acute hospital. The maps and ideas were communicated back to the Department of Health and subsequently assisted the work of the Modernization Agency.     

System dynamics applications to European health care issues

Taking a European perspective, a review is made of some system dynamics models which address health care issues. Suggestions are made for the types of role which these models should take, bearing in mind the strategic orientation of system dynamics modelling. Examples are described of qualitative models where influence diagrams are the main analytical tool. Quantitative system dynamics models have a contribution to make in epidemiological studies and have been used to analyse the AIDS epidemic. A detailed example of one aspect of model formulation is given. This concerns the AIDS incubation time distribution and shows how real-world complications arising from virological staging and treatment effects are handled in a model of AIDS spread.     

Model development in discrete-event simulation and system dynamics: An empirical study of expert modellers

An empirical study comparing the model development process followed by experts in discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) modelling is undertaken. verbal protocol analysis (VPA) is used to study the modelling process followed by ten expert modellers (5 SD and 5 DES). Participants are asked to build simulation models based on a case study and to think aloud while modelling. The generated verbal protocols are divided into seven modelling topics: problem structuring, conceptual modelling, data inputs, model coding, verification & validation, results & experimentation and implementation and then analyzed. Our results suggest that all modellers switch between modelling topics, however DES modellers follow a more linear progression. DES modellers focus significantly more on model coding and verification & validation, whereas SD modellers on conceptual modelling. Observations are made revealing some interesting differences in the way the two groups of modellers tackle the case. This paper contributes towards the comparison of DES and SD.     

Using system dynamics to analyse disruption and delay in complex projects for litigation: can the modelling purposes be met?

System dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach that has been used to analyse disruption and delay (D&D) for litigation in a number of cases over the last 30 years. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the question of whether or not it is actually a suitable modelling approach to take in this environment. This paper explores this question by considering whether or not SD is capable of meeting the modelling purposes of analysing D&D for litigation. The author's experience as part of a team which has carried out post-mortem analysis on projects for a number of litigation cases is used to consider the degree to which SD can meet these modelling purposes. This process highlights limitations of using SD. An understanding of these limitations is important, so that a modeller can make an informed decision about the appropriateness of SD as a modelling approach to support any specific claim for compensation.     

On the nature of discontinuities in system dynamics modelling of disrupted projects

When complex projects result in large-cost over-runs, managers want to understand why this happened. There may be the possibility of making a claim against another party, or managers may simply wish to learn from any mistakes made. When using system dynamics (SD) models to analyse the reasons for project over-runs as a part of a litigation or organizational learning process, there is a strong focus on explaining historical aspects precisely. This leads to a need for the inclusion of discontinuous variables. This paper discusses the nature of discontinuities in SD models of project over-runs. Examples are given to demonstrate that the modelling of such discontinuities needs to be an integral part of the continuous simulation modelling process. Their inclusion helps to improve model validity and also, by forcing validity, uncover the important drivers of project behaviour. The examples given in this paper are significant drivers and suggest important learning about the behaviour of disrupted complex projects.     

The Use of a Strategic Planning Model for Health and Personal Social Services

Experience in using a mathematical model in the strategic planning of Health and Personal Social Services (HPSS) suggests some lessons that may be relevant to strategic modelling in other public services. Two attributes of the HPSS are that its final outputs cannot be measured reliably and that it is organized hierarchically with field authorities having considerable autonomy from the central authority. A model that has proved useful in this situation simulates how the field authorities respond to decisions taken at the centre on aggregate resource availabilities and describes their responses in terms of intermediate or proxy measures of service output. The model is used interactively with planners to examine policy options. It takes account of ideal patterns of service delivery, not merely current practice, and of the priorities and preferences employed by service personnel in the field.     

Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.     

Mapping distinctive competencies: a systemic approach

The paper discusses the role that formal modelling, both qualitative and quantitative, and the use of a group support system can play in developing strategic direction. In particular the paper focuses on the modelling of competencies as patterns and the way in which patterns often express the distinctiveness of competencies. The relationship between patterns of competencies and the goals of an organisation are explored as the basis for establishing core distinctive competencies and for developing and exploring the business model which will inform strategic direction. As an introduction the nature of strategic management is discussed, as it relates to the role of modelling competencies.     

Application of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics for modelling gated spillway flows

Computational models of spillways are important for evaluating and improving dam safety, optimising spillway design and updating operating conditions. Traditionally, scaled down physical models have been used for validation and to collect hydraulic data. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models however provide advantages in time, cost and resource reduction. CFD models also provide greater efficiency when evaluating a range of spillway designs or operating conditions. Within the present literature, most studies of computational spillway models utilise a mesh-based method. In this work we use the particle based method of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) to model weir flow through a four bay, gated, spillway system. Advantages of SPH for such modelling include automatic representation of the free surface flow behaviour due to the Lagrangian nature of the method, and the ability to incorporate complex and dynamic boundary objects such as gate structures or debris. To validate the SPH model, the reservoir water depth simulated is compared with a related physical study. The effect of SPH resolution on the predicted water depth is evaluated. The change in reservoir water level with discharge rates for weir flow conditions is also investigated, with the difference in simulated and experimental water depths found to range from 0.16% to 11.48%. These results are the first quantitative validation of the SPH method to capture spillway flow in three dimensions. The agreement achieved demonstrates the capability of the SPH method for modelling spillway flows.     

Application of hybrid RANS-LES models to the prediction of flow behaviour in an industrial crystalliser

Knowledge of the residence time and shear rates in industrial crystallisers is critical for any assessment of the performance of these vessels from a chemical engineering perspective. It is unlikely that the range of expected residence time behaviours, or the shear rates can be predicted accurately with a RANS model. In the current study, a wide range of hybrid RANS-LES models, including Stress-Blended Eddy Simulation (SBES), were used to predict the flow field in a laboratory-scale alumina precipitator with the objectives of both quantifying the accuracy of the models and assessing if the hybrid models provide significant improvement over a previous RANS modelling study. Predicted mean and fluctuating velocities have been compared with Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) data from a laboratory-scale alumina precipitator. The results achieved show that hybrid RANS-LES models can accurately predict both the mean and fluctuating velocities in the precipitator vessel. Importantly, as the mesh is refined, agreement with experimental data improves and differences between model predictions reduce, showing that sensitivity to the sub-grid scale model reduces if all the relevant large-scale turbulence structures are explicitly resolved. Prediction of fluctuating velocities is found to be more accurate than that achieved in a previous RANS modelling study. The SBES results are found to be mesh-independent, and to give closer agreement with experimental data, on a coarser mesh than both the SST-DDES and SST-SAS approaches as the model formulation allows rapid transition to an explicit LES model immediately outside the wall boundary layer. This is an important result for industrial simulation due to the significant reduction in simulation times needed.     

CFD modelling of thickeners at Worsley Alumina Pty Ltd

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of process unit operations is a tool that is being used increasingly by mineral processing industries to reduce operating and capital costs and increase throughputs.Worsley Alumina first became involved with CFD modelling through support of the AMIRA Thickener Technology Project 266A in 1994, and subsequent extension projects in which CSIRO has been developing validated CFD models of thickener operation. The CSIRO Division of Minerals has been involved with CFD modelling since 1984 mainly on high temperature furnace applications and has been developing multi-phase thickener models since 1992. The benefits of obtaining a better understanding of flow patterns in thickeners using this modelling method became obvious and projects commenced in the third quarter of 1995 to utilise the CSIRO expertise. Projects have been ongoing almost continuously since that time. The CFD modelling was verified using tracers to measure actual flow patterns in a settler. Once verification had been achieved the CFD model was used to test innovative changes in design aimed at achieving higher throughputs and improved operation. These innovative changes when implemented on the full plant gave results similar to the CFD model predictions and resulted in improved process stabilisation, reduced chemical costs and very large savings in capital requirements for our major expansion that has just been completed. There are a number of assumptions made in the CFD model and these are discussed in detail in the paper together with details of individual CFD modelling projects and cost benefits achieved from completed projects.     

Competitive dynamics and gaming simulation: lessons from a fishing industry simulator

Experiments with a gaming simulator of the fishing industry show that a wide range of firm and industry performance can arise from players’ differing perceptions of the competitive environment. When transferred into the arena of applied strategy development, the results suggest that modellers should give more attention to modelling alternative conceptualizations of strategic intent in the minds of rival business leaders and the firms they create. This new interpretive emphasis should complement the traditional modelling of cross-functional coordination that has been the hallmark of much published work in strategic modelling and simulation. When leaders and firms in the same industry adopt quite different views of the overall system of resources in the industry, it is important to model the heterogeneity of rival firms in order to understand the dynamic performance of the firm and the industry. We propose a modelling approach that captures heterogeneity among the strategic resources that rival firms seek to build and in the operating goals and coordinating processes they use to build them.     

MULTIQ: A Queueing Model for FMSs with Several Pallet Types

Analytical modelling of the work flow through flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs), based on closed queueing network models, has been successfully applied to the early stages of design and analysis of FMSs. This paper describes the advantages of using multiple job-class closed queueing networks for modelling realistic situations occurring in FMSs. The general modelling of FMSs by closed queueing networks is first reviewed. The way Solberg's CAN-Q—a single job-class queueing-based package—deals with several part types is clarified. A new model called MULTIQ, allowing multiple pallet types, each of which is used by several part types, is proposed. Results are derived using the data from an existing FMS. The use of the MULTIQ model for optimization purposes is suggested by some examples.     

Relevance assumed: a case study of balanced scorecard development using system dynamics

The balanced scorecard (BSC) has become a popular concept for performance measurement. It focuses attention of management on only a few performance measures and bridges different functional areas as it includes both financial and non-financial measures. However, doubts frequently arise regarding the quality of the BSCs developed as well as the quality of the process in which this development takes place. This article describes a case study in which system dynamics (SD) modelling and simulation was used to overcome both kinds of problems. In a two-stage modelling process (qualitative causal loop diagramming followed by quantitative simulation), a BSC was developed for management of one organizational unit of a leading Dutch insurer. This research illustrates how, through their involvement in this development process, management came to understand that seemingly contradictory goals such as customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction and employee productivity were, in fact, better seen as mutually reinforcing. Also, analysis of the SD model showed how, contrary to ex ante management intuition, performance would first have to drop further before significant improvements could be realized. Finally, the quantitative modelling process also helped to evaluate several improvement initiatives that were under consideration at the time, proving some of them to have unclear benefits, others to be very promising indeed.     

The influence of flow acceleration on tidal stream turbine wake dynamics: A numerical study using a coupled BEM–CFD model

Studies of tidal stream turbine performance and of wake development are often conducted in tow-tanks or in regulated flumes with uniform flows across the turbine. Whilst such studies can be very useful, it is questionable as to what extent the results would differ if the flows were more complex in nature, for instance if the flows were unsteady or non-uniform or even both. This study aims to explore whether the results would be affected once we move away from the uniform flow scenario. A numerical modelling study is presented in which tidal stream turbine performance and wake development in non-uniform flow conditions are assessed. The model implements the Blade Element Momentum method for characterising turbine rotor source terms which are used within a computational fluid dynamics model for predicting the interaction between the turbines and the surrounding flow. The model is applied to a rectangular domain and a range of slopes are implemented for the water surface to instigate an increase in flow velocity along the domain. Within an accelerated flow domain wake recovery occurred more rapidly although rotor performance was not affected.     

Inter-comparison and validation of computational fluid dynamics codes in two-stage meandering channel flows

This paper presents a study in the inter-comparison and validation of three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics codes which are currently used in river engineering. Finite volume codes PHOENICS, FLUENT and SSIIM; and finite element code TELEMAC3D are considered in this study. The work has been carried out by competent hydraulic modellers who are users of the codes and not involved in their development. This paper is therefore written from the perspective of independent practitioners of the techniques. In all codes, the flow calculations are performed by solving the three-dimensional continuity and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations with the k–ε turbulence model. The application of each code was carried out independently and this led to slightly different, but nonetheless valid, models. This is particularly seen in the different boundary conditions which have been applied and which arise in part from differences in the modelling approaches and methodology adopted by the different research groups and in part from the different assumptions and formulations implemented in the different codes. Similar finite volume meshes are used in the simulations with PHOENICS, FLUENT and SSIIM while in TELEMAC3D, a triangular finite element mesh is used. The ASME Journal of Fluids Engineering editorial policy is taken as a minimum framework for the control of numerical accuracy. In all cases, grid convergence is demonstrated and conventional criteria, such as Y⁺, are satisfied. A rigorous inter-comparison of the codes is performed using large-scale experimental data from the UK Flood Channel Facility for a two-stage meandering channel. This example data set shows complex hydraulic behaviour without the additional complications found in natural rivers. Standardised methods are used to compare each model with the available experimental data. Results are shown for the streamwise and transverse velocities, secondary flow, turbulent kinetic energy, bed shear stress and free surface elevation. They demonstrate that the models produce similar results overall, although there are some differences in the predicted flow field and greater differences in turbulent kinetic energy and bed shear stress. This study is seen as an essential first step in the inter-comparison of some of the computational fluid dynamics codes used in the field of river engineering.     

Real-life application of a simple continuum traffic flow model

A numerical solution to a simple continuum model for traffic flow is discussed. Real traffic data are used for an in-depth study and the implementation of a finite difference scheme is described in detail. The results show that predicted traffic flow conditions agree well with the observed data provided boundary conditions are treated properly. This modelling exercise provides an excellent example of applying mathematics to a fairly complex real life problem. It serves to provide insight into the processes involved in deterministic modelling using a realistic and relevant example.     

Modelling gas injection of a Peirce–Smith-converter

A commercial CFD-code PHOENICS was used to solve isothermal flow field of gas and liquid in a Peirce–Smith-converter. An Euler–Euler based algorithm was chosen for modelling fluid dynamics and evaluating controlling forces of a submerged gas injection. Predictions were made with a k–ε turbulence model in the body fitted coordinate system. The model has been verified with a 1/4 scale water model, and a parametric study with the mathematical model of submerged gas injection was made for the PS-process and the ladle injection processes. Limits of the modelling technique used were recognised, but calculated results indicate that the present model predicts the general flow field with reasonable accuracy. Predicted bubble distribution, pattern of the flow field and magnitude of flow velocities were used to evaluate scaling factors of physical models and general flow conditions of an industrial PS-converter.     

Modelling and evaluation of time aspects in business processes

There is a need for modelling and performance evaluation techniques and tools for a fast and reliable design of workflow systems. This paper introduces a modelling methodology based on coloured stochastic Petri nets. It allows the integration of control flow, organizational, information related and timing aspects in one modelling framework. The processing delays include stochastic distributions in addition to deterministic times. Several workflows and the effects of constrained shared resources needed for different tasks can easily be described and analysed together. Control flow and organizational aspects are modelled separately in resource and workflow models. These models are automatically compiled into one model, which can then be used for qualitative analysis or performance evaluation. The proposed modelling and evaluation method is supported by the software tool TimeNET. An application example shows its use.     

Facilitated modelling in strategy development: measuring the impact on communication,consensus and commitment

Facilitated modelling is used in supporting the resolution of strategic issues mainly because it is expected to improve communication between decision makers, foster consensus and create commitment. Researchers in both the strategy and facilitated modelling fields call for more systematic research on how strategy development works in practice and how outcomes are created. In this paper, three facilitated modelling cases on strategic issues are studied using both written questionnaires, developed in the strategy and decision support fields, and semi-structured interviews. Results of both measurement approaches are compared to determine (a) to what extent outcomes in participants’ own terms are similar to concepts in the questionnaire and (b) whether changes measured by both methods are similar. Interview results are used to assess (c) which elements of the intervention contribute to outcomes. Findings suggest that questionnaires offer clear benefits as standardized measurement of facilitated modelling outcomes.