项目网络中考虑支配与扩散关系的组合决策

单纯侧重项目自身属性而不考虑项目关联性以及由项目衍生而来的技术、经验/信息扩散对项目组合决策时的影响,易导致决策偏差,低估具有潜在技术先导性项目的价值。对此,引用复杂网络理论,以项目关联性的视角,将项目间支配和扩散关系分别抽象为有向加权网络,运用K-shell分解方法构建项目组合网络中基于支配关系的项目影响力模型以及技术、经验/信息在项目间扩散传播的模型。然后,基于PageRank算法,综合考虑项目间支配与扩散关系,建立了项目优先级排序决策模型。最后,通过算例分析说明了该模型与算法的可行性与有效性,为企业项目组合决策提供了有益的参考。     

Developing teacher capacity to explore non-routine problems through a focus on the social semiotics of mathematics classroom discourse

This paper reports on a research project exploring the social semiotics of mathematics teaching and learning in urban middle schools. Participating teachers attended a Lesson Study Group that focused on the linguistic and diagrammatic challenges of framing and solving non-routine mathematics problems. This paper describes key social semiotic concepts explored with the teachers during the lesson study activities, focusing on the complex conjunction of the mathematics register and everyday language. We use examples from the participants’ classrooms to show the relevance of these concepts in studying classroom discourse, focusing in particular on the complex conjunction of diagramming and language.     

Effort estimates through project complexity

This paper reports the results obtained from use of project complexity parameters in modeling effort estimates. It highlights the attention that complexity has recently received in the project management area. After considering that traditional knowledge has consistently proved to be prone to failure when put into practice on actual projects, the paper endorses the belief that there is a need for more open-minded and novel approaches to project management. With a view to providing some insight into the opportunities that integrate complexity concepts into model building offers, we extend the work previously undertaken on the complexity dimension in project management. We do so analyzing the results obtained with classical linear models and artificial neural networks when complexity is considered as another managerial parameter. For that purpose, we have used the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group data set. The results obtained proved the benefits of integrating the complexity of the projects at hand into the models. They also addressed the need of a complex system, such as artificial neural networks, to capture the fine nuances of the complex systems to be modeled, the projects.     

基于熵权物元的大型水利工程项目风险评价研究

大型水利工程项目是典型的复杂系统工程,为了准确预测大型水利工程风险等级,降低事故风险,论文从管理、技术、经济、政策、环境五个方面选取影响水利工程项目风险的14个指标,建立了水利工程项目风险评价指标体系.借助熵权法确定各项指标的权重,分析影响项目风险的主要因素,之后利用物元分析理论定量评价项目的风险状况.通过分析可知:跨...     

Genetic algorithm-based multi-criteria project portfolio selection

Project portfolio selection is one of the most important decision-making problems for most organizations in project management and engineering management. Usually project portfolio decisions are very complicated when project interactions in terms of multiple selection criteria and preference information of decision makers (DMs) in terms of the criteria importance are taken into consideration simultaneously. In order to solve this complex decision-making problem, a multi-criteria project portfolio selection problem considering project interactions in terms of multiple selection criteria and DMs?? preferences is first formulated. Then a genetic algorithm (GA)-based nonlinear integer programming (NIP) approach is used to solve the multi-criteria project portfolio selection problem. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented for demonstration and verification purposes. Experimental results obtained indicate that the GA-based NIP approach can be used as a feasible and effective solution to multi-criteria project portfolio selection problems.     

基于结构洞理论的城市复杂项目群组织优化研究

研究目的:从城市复杂项目群组织的复杂性着手,针对目前项目群组织管理和控制在实际应用中出现的问题,研究一种优化项目群组织的有效方法.研究过程:基于结构洞理论模型,通过分析城市复杂项目群组织结构的网络特性,找到项目群组织中各个关系人之间的结构洞,以此作为研究的对象来建立组织的优化模型,在确立目标函数的情况下,通过结构约束算法求取网络规模的密度约束,并通过最小二乘法进行有效的修正.研究结论:通过模型的构建,可以得出结构洞理论是研究城市复杂项目群组织关系的有效理论方法,为其组织优化提供了交互视角,有利于组织中关系人目标的实现.     

Robust scheduling and robustness measures for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem

Projects are often subject to various sources of uncertainties that have a negative impact on activity durations and costs. Therefore, it is crucial to develop effective approaches to generate robust project schedules that are less vulnerable to disruptions caused by uncontrollable factors. In this paper, we investigate the robust discrete time/cost trade-off problem, which is a multi-mode project scheduling problem with important practical relevance. We introduce surrogate measures that aim at providing an accurate estimate of the schedule robustness. The pertinence of each proposed measure is assessed through computational experiments. Using the insights revealed by the computational study, we propose a two-stage robust scheduling algorithm. Finally, we provide evidence that the proposed approach can be extended to solve a complex robust problem with tardiness penalties and earliness revenues.     

基于交互耦合网络的项目组合决策模型研究

随着项目活动进入“大尺度”时代,复杂性成为现代化项目组合管理中的突出问题。在项目组合决策系统复杂性分析基础上,提出了交互耦合网络视角下的项目组合决策系统表征方法;借鉴非线性动力学建模方法构建项目组合决策系统复杂动力网络模型,结合模型的稳定解和稳定条件将项目组合决策系统划分为竞争型、共生型、强依存型和弱依存型,并通过数值仿真方法对系统的稳定域、分岔和混沌进行分析。研究表明,项目组合决策系统的复杂性和稳定性依赖于系统内交互关系作用,改善协作关系,避免过分竞争,以系统整体为先优化配置有利于项目组合目标实现。     

项目组合网络实证研究

将复杂网络理论引入到项目组合管理中,以项目为节点,以项目之间的依赖关系为边,项目的成本看作点权,项目之间的依赖强度看作边权,将项目组合抽象为一个复杂加权网络。研究了4家企业的项目组合网络,在分析项目组合特性的基础上,概括了项目组合的复杂网络行为特征。对企业项目组合网络进行综合对比分析发现,项目组合网络具有如下相似特征:①节点度分布不同于其他社会网络,倾向于幂律分布,又有偏斜泊松分布的迹象;②度相关系数负相关,有别于其他社会网络;③具有集群结构;④聚集系数很大;⑤网络直径较小;⑥平均度数小于4。     

MBA项目评价与改进系统的反馈动态复杂性分析

中国MBA教育的评价与改进是当前MBA教育发展的瓶颈,为了寻求提升MBA教育质量的有效方法,用系统动力学流率基本入树建模法构建了MBA教育的SD模型.通过用极小基模生成集法对模型中的反馈环进行分析,找到系统基模.在MBA教育SD模型中存在两个增长上限基模和一个舍本逐末基模.根据学习型组织理论:找到管理系统中的基模并用系统思考的方法正确处理基模,是保障系统运行的重要方法.但是,对于一个象MBA教育项目这样的典型动态复杂系统,发现其中所有的基模往往非常困难.本文提供了一个迅速并准确找到复杂系统中全部基模的方法,即极小基模生成集法.不论我们面临的动态系统有多么复杂,都可以使用该方法来分析其中的反馈环结构.构造SD流率基本入树模型,运用该方法进行反馈动态分析,提出了改进中国MBA教育的管理策略.     

A discrete event simulation model in the case of managing a software project

The design and development of large-scale software projects is a complex endeavor, often facing problems like cost and schedule overruns as well as low quality. Over the last years the management of software development projects has been recognized as the cornerstone point of seeking improvement and solutions. Simulation modeling of the software project process is gaining interest among academics and practitioners, as a method to tackle the complex questions with which relevant enterprises are confronted. It offers support on several issues, such as defining software product development strategies, decision-making regarding process improvement and training, in a time span ranging from a short portion of the life cycle to long term product evolution, with organization-wide implications. The aim of this work is to implement a model simulating a core part of a software project process, enabling the estimation of several project development details such as delivery times and quality metrics. The purpose of the model is to assist project managers in control and monitoring, but also in identifying the best planning alternatives. The model scope covers a portion of the life cycle of an incremental software development venture.     

Better management of blood supply-chain with GIS-based analytics

This paper presents a novel application of operations research, data mining and geographic information-systems-based analytics to support decision making in blood supply chain management. This, blood reserve availability assessment, tracking, and management system (BRAMS), research project has been funded by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. (This DoD funded SBIR project is performed by the researchers at Knowledge Based Systems, Inc. (KBSI).) The rapidly increasing demand, criticality of the product, strict storage and handling requirements, and the vastness of the theater of operations, make blood supply-chain management a complex, yet vital problem for the department of defense. In order to address this problem a variety of contemporary analytic techniques are used to analyze inventory and consumption patterns, evaluate supply chain status, monitor performance metrics at different levels of granularity, and detect potential problems and opportunities for improvement. The current implementation of the system is being actively used by 130 mangers at different levels in the supply chain including facilities at Osan Air Force Base in South Korea and Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey.     

Time and work generalised precedence relationships in project scheduling with pre-emption: An application to the management of Service Centres

In this paper we present an application of project scheduling concepts and solution procedures for the solution of a complex problem that comes up in the daily management of many company Service Centres. The real problem has been modelled as a multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with pre-emption, time and work generalised precedence relationships with minimal and maximal time lags between the tasks and due dates. We present a complete study of work GPRs which includes proper definitions, a new notation and all possible conversions amongst them. Computational results that show the efficiency of the proposed hybrid genetic algorithm and the advantages of allowing pre-emption are also presented.     

The contribution of mathematical modelling to the practice of project management

This paper looks at the contribution that mathematical modellinghas made to project management over the past 50 years, and thecontribution it is currently making and can make in the future.Project Management started with well-defined foundations posingprecise, well-defined problems. In its growing phase, modellersplayed an essential role in taking the problems defined by theproject-management world and offering solutions, from the originalPERT, through resource allocation and levelling procedures,Monte Carlo simulation models, criticality analyses and so on.Since then, however, while the project management field itselfhas tried to establish its procedures, keeping to its philosophicalstance, much of the mathematical-modelling world has continuedalong its trajectory, producing ever more complex solutionsto ever more complex models, motivated by mathematical impressivenessrather than the need to solve real-world problems. This paperoutlines much of this work, some of which does find its wayinto project-network software but much of which languishes injournals. However, over the last decade or so, Operational Researchershave begun to build models of projects that are systemic anddynamic and explain many of the behaviours of projects thatconventional decomposition models do not; and at the same time,some of the Project Management world has started to realizethe limitations of its philosophical stance and started lookingto build new theory for modern, complex, dynamic projects. Asthese two trends come together, it is essential that modellersare at the forefront of building this new theory.     

Modelling and information systems for senior management in local government: problems and prospects

The paper considers the role of modelling systems at senior levels in democratically accountable multi-service public sector organisations such as local government.The main basis for the arguments proposed is three years of project work terminating in mid-1977. During this period the writer acted as a consultant to the IBM (UK) Scientific Centre and was responsible for the day-to-day co-ordination of a major project undertaken in the first tier Welsh local authority, Clwyd County Council.The project, which involved substantial resource inputs from both IBM and the local authority, led to definitive conclusions as to the nature and potential value of the modelling system developed.The main purpose of this paper is to consider the extent to which multi-service modelling systems in general are of relevance to local government. The system developed in the Welsh local authority may be described as affording means oriented resource planning facilities. Further it was designed to generate short and medium term (up to five years) information.It is concluded that although at first sight the implementation of an extensive modelling system may seem to involve intervention on a narrow front the reality is that it impinges upon all the main organisational variables. Because of this the prospect for realising the potential of the system will vary considerably from organisation to organisation. It is important that this should be appreciated by senior management before they approve the commitment of resources to developments of this nature.     

Community operational research issues and public art practice: the art director system

The key issues of community operational research, outlined in a paper by Ritchie, have relevance to community projects in general and, we argue, a particular relevance to public art. We illustrate this relevance by describing eight case studies in public art, four in Japan and four in the west, and by considering the projects in a three-way factorial design, make a case for the art director system in the management of public art projects.     

军事设施建设项目管理综合集成研究

工程建设项目是军事设施建设的重要组分, 对我军建设发展具有深远影响。本文以我军军事设施建设项目管理集成为研究对象, 综合考虑项目成本、进度、质量和安全等参与要素的动态影响关系, 对项目生命周期全过程, 即规划统筹阶段、计划统控阶段、勘察设计阶段、施工建设阶段和跟踪管理阶段进行综合集成管理, 并提出当前可应用于军事设施建设项目综合集成管理的主要方法, 对军事建设项目管理过程进行了优化。     

可抢占条件下的项目调度研究综述

可抢占条件下的项目调度通过暂时中断某些活动的执行,释放资源给更重要的活动,从而优化项目的工期、成本等绩效指标。可抢占项目调度问题以其重要的理论价值和应用背景,受到了学界和业界的广泛关注。对国内外可抢占项目调度的研究成果进行了系统性总结与梳理,综述了可抢占项目调度问题的数学模型及其求解算法,总结了可抢占项目调度问题的一些扩展问题和应用情况,最后指出了未来进一步的研究方向。     

Finding the shortest path with honey-bee mating optimization algorithm in project management problems with constrained/unconstrained resources

Effective project management requires the development of a realistic plan and a clear communication of the plan from the beginning to the end of the project. The critical path method (CPM) of scheduling is the fundamental tool used to develop and interconnect project plans. Ensuring the integrity and transparency of those schedules is paramount for project success. The complex and discrete nature of the solution domain for such problems causes failing of traditional and gradient-based methods in finding the optimal or even feasible solution in some cases. The difficulties encountered in scheduling construction projects with resource constraints are highlighted by means of a simplified bridge construction problem and a basic masonry construction problem. The honey-bee mating optimization (HBMO) algorithm has been previously adopted to solve mathematical and engineering problems and has proven to be efficient for searching optimal solutions in large-problem domains. This paper presents the HBMO algorithm for scheduling projects with both constrained and unconstrained resources. Results show that the HBMO algorithm is applicable to projects with or without resource constraints. Furthermore, results obtained are promising and compare well with those of well-known heuristic approaches and gradient-based methods.     

Combinations of simulation and Evolutionary Algorithms in management science and economics

Evolutionary Algorithms are robust search methods that mimic basic principles of evolution. We discuss different combinations of Evolutionary Algorithms and the versatile simulation method resulting in powerful tools not only for complex decision situations but explanatory models also. Realised and suggested applications from the domains of management and economics demonstrate the relevance of this approach. In a practical example three EA-variants produce better results than two conventional methods when optimising the decision variables of a stochastic inventory simulation. We show that EA are also more robust optimisers when only few simulations of each trial solution are performed. This characteristic may be used to reduce the generally higher CPU-requirements of population-based search methods like EA as opposed to point-based traditional optimisation techniques.