Optimal management of DC pension plan under loss aversion and Value-at-Risk constraints

This paper studies the risk management in a defined contribution (DC)pension plan. The financial market consists of cash, bond and stock. The interest rate in our model is assumed to follow an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process while the contribution rate follows a geometric Brownian Motion. Thus, the pension manager has to hedge the risks of interest rate, stock and contribution rate. Different from most works in DC pension plan, the pension manger has to obtain the optimal allocations under loss aversion and Value-at-Risk(VaR) constraints. The loss aversion pension manager is sensitive to losses while the VaR pension manager has to ensure the quality of wealth at retirement. Since these problems are not standard concave optimization problems, martingale method is applied to derive the optimal investment strategies. Explicit solutions are obtained under these two optimization criterions. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is presented in the end to show the economic behaviors under these two criterions.     

Multistep approximation algorithms: Improved convergence rates through postconditioning with smoothing kernels

We show how certain widely used multistep approximation algorithms can be interpreted as instances of an approximate Newton method. It was shown in an earlier paper by the second author that the convergence rates of approximate Newton methods (in the context of the numerical solution of PDEs) suffer from a “loss of derivatives”, and that the subsequent linear rate of convergence can be improved to be superlinear using an adaptation of Nash–Moser iteration for numerical analysis purposes; the essence of the adaptation being a splitting of the inversion and the smoothing into two separate steps. We show how these ideas apply to scattered data approximation as well as the numerical solution of partial differential equations. We investigate the use of several radial kernels for the smoothing operation. In our numerical examples we use radial basis functions also in the inversion step. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimal investment strategies and risk-sharing arrangements for a hybrid pension plan

A continuous time stochastic model is used to study a hybrid pension plan, where both the contribution and benefit levels are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan, with risk sharing between different generations. The pension fund is invested in a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets. The objective is to seek an optimal investment strategy and optimal risk-sharing arrangements for plan trustees and participants so that this proposed hybrid pension system provides adequate and stable income to retirees while adjusting contributions effectively, as well as keeping its sustainability in the long run. These goals are achieved by minimizing the expected discount disutility of intermediate adjustment for both benefits and contributions and that of terminal wealth in finite time horizon. Using the stochastic optimal control approach, closed-form solutions are derived under quadratic loss function and exponential loss function. Numerical analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal strategies to parameters of the financial market and how the optimal benefit changes with respect to different risk aversions. Through numerical analysis, we find that the optimal strategies do adjust the contributions and retirement benefits according to fund performance and model objectives so the intergenerational risk sharing seem effectively achieved for this collective hybrid pension plan.     

基于加权效用和VaR-PI约束下DC型养老金计划的最优资产配置

本文从养老金计划参与人和基金经理的双重视角出发,以最大化双方加权的期望效用为目标,研究了在最低保障和VaR约束下,DC养老金计划的最优资产配置问题。假设养老金计划参与人和基金经理均是损失厌恶的,分别用两个S型的效用函数来刻画双方的损失厌恶行为。VaR约束和加权的效用函数使得本文所研究的优化问题成为一个复杂的非凹效用最大化问题。利用拉格朗日对偶理论和凹化方法求得了最优财富和最优投资组合的封闭解。数值结论表明当更为看重养老金计划参与人的利益时,基金经理会采取更为激进的投资策略,VaR约束可以改进对DC养老金计划的风险管理。     

Pension expectations as disincentives to job mobility

I address the measurement problem of the extent to which workers in an industry face disincentives to changing employment because of an interest in private pension benefits. I take an individual worker as the unit of analysis and represent job mobility over the work life by a time-varying point process. I treat the various plan types (pension systems) in a unified way through a general reward function (accumulated benefit function). By merging the employment termination process with this function, I derive two other benefit functions to measure the pension expectations of a worker from current and future employments. I then use these functions to construct a loss function that trades off the benefit gains and losses faced by a worker in a pension system at the time of a potential job change. I apply the methodology developed in the paper to the United States pension system, using data from the 1989 Survey of Consumer Finances. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal investment for a pension fund under inflation risk

This paper investigates an optimal investment problem faced by a defined contribution (DC) pension fund manager under inflationary risk. It is assumed that a representative member of a DC pension plan contributes a fixed share of his salary to the pension fund during the finite time horizon [0, T]. The pension contributions are invested continuously in a risk-free bond, an index bond and a stock. The objective is to maximize the expected utility of terminal value of the pension fund. By solving this investment problem we present a way to deal with the optimization problem, in case there is a (positive) endowment (or contribution), using the martingale method.     

Return smoothing mechanisms in life and pension insurance: Path-dependent contingent claims

Traditional with-profits pension saving schemes have been criticized for their opacity, plagued by embedded options and guarantees, and have recently created enormous problems for the solvency of the life insurance and pension industry. This has fueled creativity in the industry’s product development departments, and this paper analyzes a representative member of a family of new pension schemes that have been introduced in the new millennium to alleviate these problems. The complete transparency of the new scheme’s smoothing mechanism means that it can be analyzed using contingent claims pricing theory. We explore the properties of this pension scheme in detail and find that in terms of market value, smoothing is an illusion, but also that the return smoothing mechanism implies a dynamic asset allocation strategy which corresponds with traditional pension saving advice and the recommendations of state-of-the-art dynamic portfolio choice models.     

Minimization of risks in defined benefit pension plan with time‐inconsistent preferences

In this paper, we investigate the defined benefit pension plan, where the object of the manager is to minimise the contribution rate risk and the solvency risk by considering a quadratic performance criterion. To incorporate some well‐documented behavioural features of human beings, we consider the situation where the discounting is non‐exponential. It leads to a time‐inconsistent control problem in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does no longer hold. In our model, we assume that the benefit outgo is constant, and the pension fund can be invested in a risk‐free asset and a risky asset whose return follows a geometric Brownian motion. We characterise the time‐consistent strategies and value function in terms of the solution of a system of integral equations. The existence and uniqueness of the solution is verified, and the approximation of the solution is obtained. Some numerical results of the equilibrium contribution rate and equilibrium investment policy are presented for three types of discount functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

养老基金投资组合的常方差弹性(CEV)模型和解析决策

针对以年金形式发放待遇的缴费预定制养老基金,在退休前和退休后的两个阶段,分别构建了常方差弹性(CEV)模型,并应用Legendre变换将原问题转化为对偶问题,在追求指数效用最大化的条件下,求得了精确解析解,从而确定了这两个阶段的最优投资决策．     

A new look at smoothing Newton methods for nonlinear complementarity problems and box constrained variational inequalities

In this paper we take a new look at smoothing Newton methods for solving the nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP) and the box constrained variational inequalities (BVI). Instead of using an infinite sequence of smoothing approximation functions, we use a single smoothing approximation function and Robinson’s normal equation to reformulate NCP and BVI as an equivalent nonsmooth equation H(u,x)=0, where H:ℜ ²ⁿ →ℜ ²ⁿ , u∈ℜ ⁿ is a parameter variable and x∈ℜ ⁿ is the original variable. The central idea of our smoothing Newton methods is that we construct a sequence {z ^k =(u ^k ,x ^k )} such that the mapping H(·) is continuously differentiable at each z ^k and may be non-differentiable at the limiting point of {z ^k }. We prove that three most often used Gabriel-Moré smoothing functions can generate strongly semismooth functions, which play a fundamental role in establishing superlinear and quadratic convergence of our new smoothing Newton methods. We do not require any function value of F or its derivative value outside the feasible region while at each step we only solve a linear system of equations and if we choose a certain smoothing function only a reduced form needs to be solved. Preliminary numerical results show that the proposed methods for particularly chosen smoothing functions are very promising. Received June 23, 1997 / Revised version received July 29, 1999?Published online December 15, 1999     

A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology

Defined benefit pension plan sponsors have taken on greater risks for sponsoring these plans in the last several years. Due to ever increasing concerns of longevity risk and the weak economic environment, sponsors are eager to understand their pension-related risks to facilitate optimal enterprise decision-making. Borrowing an analytical framework from the life insurance and annuity industry where the amount of risk is framed in terms of the total assets required to remain solvent over a one-year period with a high level of confidence, i.e., the economic capital approach, this paper develops a benchmark risk measure for pension sponsors by obtaining a total asset requirement for sustaining the pension plan. The difference between the total asset requirement and the actual trust assets thus provides a measure of sponsor assets at risk due to plan sponsorship. Two factor-based approaches are proposed for this calculation. The first approach develops a set of pension-specific factors as if the pension plan were a group annuity. The second approach directly simulates the risk drivers of the pension plan and develops a framework for obtaining factors and calculating the pension risk given a desired confidence level. Our approach is very easy to implement and monitor in practice.     

Valuation of intergenerational transfers in funded collective pension schemes

This paper applies contingent claim analysis to value pension contracts for real-life collective pension plans with intergenerational risk sharing and offering DB-like benefits. We rewrite the balance sheet of such a pension fund as an aggregate of embedded generational options. This implies that a pension fund is a zero-sum game in value terms, so any policy change inevitably leads to value transfers between generations. We explore intergenerational value transfers that may arise from a plan redesign or from changes in funding policy and risk sharing rules. We develop a stochastic framework which accounts for time-varying investment opportunities and computes the embedded generational options. Changes in the values of the generational options enable us to evaluate the impact of policy modifications in the pension contract with respect to intergenerational transfers and redistribution. We find that a switch to a less risky asset mix is beneficial to elderly members at the expense of younger members who lose value. A reallocation of risk bearing from a plan with flexible contributions and fixed benefits to a plan with fixed contributions and flexible benefits leads to value redistribution from older plan members to younger ones.     

Erratum: Betweenness Centralization for Bipartite Graphs

We address two related issues. First, we analyze the effects of risk preferences on cooperation in social dilemmas. Second, we compare social dilemmas in which outcomes represent gains with dilemmas where outcomes represent losses. We show that predictions on gain‐loss asymmetries with respect to conditions for cooperation crucially depend on assumptions concerning risk preferences. Under the assumption of risk aversion for gains as well as losses together with an assumption of decreasing absolute risk aversion, conditions for cooperation are less restrictive if outcomes represent losses than if outcomes represent gains. Conversely ‐ and counterintuitively ‐ under the assumption of S‐shaped utility, conditions for cooperation are more restrictive if outcomes represent losses than if outcomes represent gains. We provide an experimental test of such predictions. Only a minority of subjects behaves consistent with the assumption of S‐shaped utility. Furthermore, we find no empirical evidence for a general difference between cooperation in social dilemmas in which outcomes represent gains and dilemmas where outcomes represent losses. We do find evidence that risk preferences affect cooperation rates.     

Smoothing algorithms for state–space models

Two-filter smoothing is a principled approach for performing optimal smoothing in non-linear non-Gaussian state–space models where the smoothing distributions are computed through the combination of ‘forward’ and ‘backward’ time filters. The ‘forward’ filter is the standard Bayesian filter but the ‘backward’ filter, generally referred to as the backward information filter, is not a probability measure on the space of the hidden Markov process. In cases where the backward information filter can be computed in closed form, this technical point is not important. However, for general state–space models where there is no closed form expression, this prohibits the use of flexible numerical techniques such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to approximate the two-filter smoothing formula. We propose here a generalised two-filter smoothing formula which only requires approximating probability distributions and applies to any state–space model, removing the need to make restrictive assumptions used in previous approaches to this problem. SMC algorithms are developed to implement this generalised recursion and we illustrate their performance on various problems.     

Asset-liability management for Czech pension funds using stochastic programming

It is possible to model a wide range of portfolio management problems using stochastic programming. This approach requires the generation of input scenarios and probabilities, which represent the evolution of the return on investment, the stream of liabilities and other random phenomena of the problem and respect the no-arbitrage properties. The quality of the recommended capital allocation depends on the quality of the input scenarios and a validation of results is necessary. Appropriate scenario generation techniques and output analysis methods are described in the context of defined contribution pension fund and applied to the specific model of a Czech pension fund. The numerical results indicate various components that influence the recommended investment decisions and the fund’s achievements. In particular, the initial balance sheet position of the pension fund is important for the optimal investment strategy because of the accounting rules embedded in the model and tracking of both the market and purchasing value of assets.     

Pension funding problem with regime‐switching geometric Brownian motion assets and liabilities

This paper extends the pension funding model in (N. Am. Actuarial J. 2003; 7 :37–51) to a regime‐switching case. The market mode is modeled by a continuous‐time stationary Markov chain. The asset value process and liability value process are modeled by Markov‐modulated geometric Brownian motions. We consider a pension funding plan in which the asset value is to be within a band that is proportional to the liability value. The pension plan sponsor is asked to provide sufficient funds to guarantee the asset value stays above the lower barrier of the band. The amount by which the asset value exceeds the upper barrier will be paid back to the sponsor. By applying differential equation approach, this paper calculates the expected present value of the payments to be made by the sponsor as well as that of the refunds to the sponsor. In addition, we study the effects of different barriers and regime switching on the results using some numerical examples. The optimal dividend problem is studied in our examples as an application of our theory. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three retirement decision models for defined contribution pension plan members: A simulation study

This paper examines the hypothetical retirement behavior of defined contribution (DC) pension plan participants. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we compare and discuss three retirement decision models: the two-thirds replacement ratio benchmark model, the option-value of continued work model and a newly-developed “one-year” retirement decision model. Unlike defined benefit (DB) pension plans where economic incentives create spikes in retirement at particular ages, all three retirement decision models suggest that the retirement ages of DC participants are much more smoothly distributed over a wide range of ages. We find that the one-year model possesses several advantages over the other two models when representing the theoretical retirement choice of a DC pension plan participant. First, its underlying theory for retirement decision-making is more feasible given the distinct features and pension drivers of a DC plan. Second, its specifications produce a more logical relationship between an individual’s decision to retire and his/her age and accumulated retirement wealth. Lastly, although the one-year model is less complex than the option-value model as the DC participants’ scope is only one year, the retirement decision is optimal over all future projected years if projections are made using reasonable financial assumptions.     

Managing contribution and capital market risk in a funded public defined benefit plan: Impact of CVaR cost constraints

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager’s objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.     

一类养老金精算成本模型

本文建立了一类养老金精算成本模型．该模型的基本思想是，当雇员加入养老金计划之后，与雇员的未来服务年限有关的养老金利益的精算现值由雇主（或雇主与雇员一起）用拨款的形式缴清，而与雇员在参加养老金计划之前的过去服务年限有关的养老金利益则另行处理．所以称该模型为应计利益精算成本模型．