不完全语言信息下的多准则群决策方法研究

针对决策者所给的自然语言信息缺失判断矩阵,提出了一种基于群体满意度最大的不完全语言信息多准则群决策规划模型.首先分析决策者所给的多准则语言评价信息矩阵,进而通过三角模糊数将多准则语言评价信息矩阵转化为三角模糊数矩阵;其次根据满意度函数构建不完全语言信息多准则群决策规划模型;最后通过实例验证本方法的可行性及有效性.实例表明该方法计算简单,易操作.     

考虑油膜动态过程的海上溢油应急物资调度优化

针对溢油应急响应中海上油膜所具有的动态特性,综合考虑需求点的时变物资需求、运输网络的不确定性以及物资调度决策与外部决策环境之间的相互作用关系之后,构建了效率目标与成本目标相结合的多目标海上溢油应急物资调度优化模型。根据模型的特点,提出了一种基于鲸鱼算法的求解方法。该算法利用非线性收敛因子克服了算法后期易陷入局部最优的不足,同时还引入小生境共享机制以确保解的多样性。最后,通过仿真案例对模型与算法的有效性与可行性进行了验证。结果表明,该方法可以为决策者提供高质量的决策支持。     

多阶段应急决策的方案链选择方法

针对多阶段不同情景下多指标多任务的应急决策问题,提出了一种方案链选择方法。在该方法中,首先给出了决策方案链的概念,并对多阶段多指标多任务的应急决策问题进行了描述;然后根据相邻阶段的子方案之间的相容性,构建了相容性关系矩阵;进一步地,在考虑相邻阶段子方案之间相容性的情形下,以各阶段的子方案的综合评价值最大为目标,建立了应急决策的方案链选择的优化模型。通过求解模型,得到应急决策的最优方案链。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于后悔理论的灰色应急决策方案动态调整方法

突发事件发展具有可变性、动态性、随机性等特点,这要求决策者能根据实际情况及时调整应急方案,在此过程中决策者往往表现出“有限理性”的心理特征。针对以上情形,提出一种基于后悔理论的决策方法,以解决不确定环境下考虑决策者心理因素的应急方案动态调整问题。该方法首先描述分析了基于灰数信息的应急调整方案的生成过程;然后从后悔规避的视角构造了调整方案集关于处置效果、调整成本、应对损失三方面的灰色感知效用矩阵;进一步,用转移概率矩阵预测突发事件的演化概率,计算各调整方案的灰色综合感知效用值以选出最佳调整方案;最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明,该方法贴近决策实际、具有较强的实用性;能够为应急决策的方案调整问题提供方法指导和理论支持。     

基于NSGA-II的应急生产任务多目标优化模型及算法研究

重大突发事件发生后,若灾区的应急物资需求不能通过调用储备得到满足,则应急生产将成为灾区应急物资供应的重要保障手段。本文研究重大突发事件发生后应急物资生产任务的优化问题,重点关注原材料生产能力变化对完成应急生产任务的影响,以应急生产任务完成时间最短、完成成本最低为决策目标,研究了包含多个供应商、多个制造商以及单个受灾点的应急物资生产任务多目标规划模型。运用在求解多目标规划问题时具有众多优势的非支配排序多目标遗传算法(NSGA-II)对模型进行求解。通过算例分析,NSGA-II可以得到较好的Pareto前沿,并且可以根据不同情况给出最优的应急物资生产和原材料保障方案。本文的研究还表明,要想更快完成应急生产任务,需要做好原材料、资金、电力、交通等各种要素的配套保障工作。     

Behavioral multi-criteria decision analysis: the TODIM method with criteria interactions

In this paper a multi-criteria decision aiding model is developed through the use of the Choquet integral. The proposed model is an extension of the TODIM method, which is based on nonlinear Cumulative Prospect Theory. The paper starts by reviewing the first steps of behavioral decision theory. A presentation of the TODIM method follows. The basic concepts of the Choquet integral as related to multi-criteria decision aiding are reviewed. It is also shown how the measures of dominance of the TODIM method can be rewritten through the application of the Choquet integral. From the ordering of decision criteria the fuzzy measures of criteria interactions are computed, which leads to the ranking of alternatives. A case study on the forecasting of property values for rent in a Brazilian city illustrates the proposed model. Results obtained from the use of the Choquet integral are then compared against a previously made usage of the TODIM method. It is concluded that significant advantages exist derived from the use of the Choquet integral. The paper closes with recommendations for future research.     

A new decision support model in multi-criteria decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy sets based on risk preferences and criteria reduction

In this paper, we propose a new model for decision support to address the ‘large decision table’ (eg, many criteria) challenge in intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This new model involves risk preferences of decision makers (DMs) based on the prospect theory and criteria reduction. First, we build three relationship models based on different types of DMs’ risk preferences. By building different discernibility matrices according to relationship models, we find useful criteria for IFS MCDM problems. Second, we propose a technique to obtain weights through discernibility matrix. Third, we also propose a new method to rank and select the most desirable choice(s) according to weighted combinatorial advantage values of alternatives. Finally, we use a realistic voting example to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method and construct a new decision support model for IFS MCDM problems.     

选择与评价新产品开发的风险决策研究

本文针对企业投资决策者在新产品开发中的风险决策,基于贝叶斯决策理论及其相关研究建立了评估外部情报信息价值的数学模型,探讨投资决策者风险倾向、新产品开发风险投资未来市场需求以及情报费用对投资决策的影响机制,并用于评估新产品开发决策。研究结果有助于理解企业决策者进行新产品开发决策时应考虑的因素和情境,并能够辅助决策。最后,将这一数学模型应用到一家大型高科技企业的案例中。应用案例分析结果表明:本文的研究结论能够为企业开发新产品提供相关的决策依据。     

基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型与方法

以突发危机事件应急决策为应用背景,讨论了双论域上模糊粗糙集的基本理论,建立了基于模糊相容关系的双论域模糊粗糙集模型. 在此基础上,把突发危机事件应急决策转化为一个具有模糊决策对象的双论域决策近似空间上的粗糙近似问题,构建了基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型.首先在双论域近似空间中计算模糊决策对象的上(下)近似,进而结合经典非确定型决策的思想给出了突发危机事件应急决策的规则.同时,给出了模型的算法.该模型给出了一种在不完全信息环境下应急决策的方法,给出了在充分考虑决策者个人偏好信息基础上的决策置信度以及最优决策规则.该方法能够比较充分地符合应急决策信息不充分、资源有限以及时间紧迫的基本特征, 进而对突发危机事件应急决策提供科学的理论基础和现实的决策方法.最后,通过应用算例说明了模型的应用过程,结果验证了本文给出模型的有效性。     

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection: A literature review

Supplier evaluation and selection problem has been studied extensively. Various decision making approaches have been proposed to tackle the problem. In contemporary supply chain management, the performance of potential suppliers is evaluated against multiple criteria rather than considering a single factor-cost. This paper reviews the literature of the multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 2000 to 2008 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) Which approaches were prevalently applied? (ii) Which evaluating criteria were paid more attention to? (iii) Is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the multi-criteria decision making approaches are better than the traditional cost-based approach, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the approaches effectively.     

Simulation techniques for the sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria decision models

This paper presents a simulation approach for high dimensional sensitivity analysis of the weights of multi-criteria decision models. This approach allows simultaneous changes of the weights and generates results that can easily be analyzed statistically to provide insights into multi-criteria model recommendations. In this study we consider three cases: no information, order information, and partial information regarding the weights. Our approach also allows investigation of sensitivity to the form of multi-criteria decision models. The simulation procedures we propose can also be used to aide in the actual decision process, particularly when the task is to select a subset of superior alternatives.     

On computational methods for solutions of multiobjective linear production programming games

In this paper we consider a production model in which multiple decision makers pool resources to produce finished goods. Such a production model, which is assumed to be linear, can be formulated as a multiobjective linear programming problem. It is shown that a multi-commodity game arises from the multiobjective linear production programming problem with multiple decision makers and such a game is referred to as a multiobjective linear production programming game. The characteristic sets in the game can be obtained by finding the set of all the Pareto extreme points of the multiobjective programming problem. It is proven that the core of the game is not empty, and points in the core are computed by using the duality theory of multiobjective linear programming problems. Moreover, the least core and the nucleolus of the game are examined. Finally, we consider a situation that decision makers first optimize their multiobjective linear production programming problem and then they examine allocation of profits and/or costs. Computational methods are developed and illustrative numerical examples are given.     

基于改进的证据推理方法的多指标决策模型

对于一个多指标决策问题，证据理论可以通过构造辨识框架和基本概率分配函数、采取递归的证据合成方法。计算出原始数据在反映多个指标联合作用的情况下对不同判别结果的支持程度，并可以在信息复杂或数据不完整的条件下做出评估决策。本文首先建立基于证据推理的多指标评估问题的基本模型，然后引入了模糊数据方法以处理具有模糊概念或推理关系的复杂问题，同时还考虑了实际问题中可能出现加权证据或者相关证据的情况，其目的是为了建立一套具有实用性的、准确有效的多指标评估模型。文章最后设计一个风险评估的算例，分析了该方法的优点以及需要进一步完善之处。     

Supporting triage of children with abdominal pain in the emergency room

The paper describes a methodology used for selecting the most relevant clinical features and for generating decision rules based on selected attributes from a medical data set with missing values. These rules will help emergency room (ER) medical personnel in triage (initial assessment) of children with abdominal pain. Presented approach is based on rough set theory extended with the ability of handling missing values and with the fuzzy measures allowing estimation of a value of information brought by particular attributes. The proposed methodology was applied for analyzing the data set containing records of patients with abdominal pain, collected in the emergency room of the cooperating hospital. Generated rules will be embedded into a computer decision support system that will be used in the emergency room. The system based on results of presented approach should allow improving of triage accuracy by the emergency room staff, and reducing management costs.     

考虑后悔与失望行为的应急方案选择方法

考虑到在应急管理问题中,当决策者需要进行应急方案选择时,会存在两类心理行为:后悔心理行为和失望心理行为,针对具有混合多指标信息的应急方案选择问题提出了一种新方法。首先,计算应急方案关于伤亡人数、财产损失和社会影响等指标信息的效用值。然后,考虑到决策者的两类心理行为的特征,为确定不同的应急方案的感知效用,分别提出计算方案后悔-欣喜值和失望-愉悦值的方法。进一步地,考虑到不同应急方案的投入成本不同,计算决策者关于不同方案的投入成本的感知效用。在此基础上,根据不同应急方案的总体感知效用值,进行应急方案的排序或优选。最后,通过实例验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于前景云的不确定语言多准则国际股指投资群决策

针对投资决策过程中语言评价值具有随机性及模糊性,以及投资者的决策容易受到其情绪的影响且不同投资者受到的影响程度不同,本文提出基于前景云的不确定语言多准则投资群决策方法,并将其运用在国际股指投资中。其中,前景理论模型用来刻画投资者情绪对决策的影响,而云模型用来刻画语言评价值模糊性和随机性之间的关联。更具体来说,论文首先解决传统文献云生成方法中云期望值超过论域或者无法区分语言评价标度等级等问题,然后构建了前景云模型并将该模型应用于多个专家共同进行的国际股指投资群决策。实证结果显示,该模型得出的决策结果比传统决策方法下的结果更直观、可靠,表现为决策依据不仅考虑方案的期望值大小及变动风险,而且还考虑了投资者情绪对决策的影响。由此可得出,本文所提出的模型更符合现实情景,也更能有效实现对投资群决策。     

A soft multi-criteria decision analysis model with application to the European Union enlargement

This paper proposes a new multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model that uses a series of existing intuitive and analytical methods to systematically capture both objective and subjective beliefs and preferences from a group of decision makers (DMs). A defuzzification method that combines entropy and the theory of displaced ideal synthesizes crisp values from the DMs’ subjective judgments. This approach assists the DMs in their selection process by plotting alternatives in a four quadrant graph and considering their Euclidean distance from the “ideal” choice. A pilot study illustrates the details of the proposed method. The DMs were a group of graduate students from the University of Paderborn in Germany. The pilot study concerned the addition of new members into the European Union (EU), a decision that has profound economic and political effects on both the entering and existing members of the Union. The DMs were required to consider a large number of internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats in assessing the decision to enlarge the EU. Although the pilot study was not performed by actual DMs from the EU, it was an excellent platform for testing the proposed model.     

铁路应急设施非概率可靠性选址优化研究

为解决小样本、贫信息下铁路应急资源储备点的可靠性选址问题,创新性地将选址-路径问题与区间非概率可靠性方法结合起来,考虑灾情发生后应急设施点在可接受的时间范围内响应受灾点的需求能力及其稳定程度,采用区间值度量路段阻抗,基于区间非概率可靠性理论及区间运算规则,提出路径的非概率可靠性度量及可靠最短路径选择方法;建立基于区间时间阻抗下可靠最短路径的无容量设施选址模型,提出约束条件限制的Monte Carlo改进算法,确定了铁路资源储备点选址的最优方案。实例表明,本文的优化方案能更好地保证救援的时间可靠性,改进的求解算法具有更小的时间复杂度,有效地缩短了运算时间,改善了解的质量。本文的方法与模型体系对于实现铁路应急设施可靠性选址,为决策者提供决策支持,提高铁路应急响应能力具有重要的指导意义。     

自然灾害情境下的终端供电设施应急抢修决策规划

自然灾害情境造成部分决策信息模糊和应急决策者的消极情绪。考虑消极情绪在自然灾害应急决策的影响,构建了考虑情绪下的前景理论的价值函数。运用反函数原理,根据应急决策者对模糊信息的心理感知价值,构建了其实际值的估计函数,用于解决决策信息模糊下的终端供电设施应急抢修决策规划问题,提出了相应的决策模型和求解算法。采用自主开发的在线实验系统,完成了信息模糊下的电网应急抢修决策实验,验证了决策模型和消极情绪下基于决策者心理感知对模糊信息估值方法的有效性。     

A zero-one model for project portfolio selection and scheduling

A zero-one integer linear programming model is proposed for selecting and scheduling an optimal project portfolio, based on the organisation's objectives and constraints such as resource limitations and interdependence among projects. The model handles some of the issues that frequently arise in real world applications but are not addressed by previously suggested models, such as situations in which the amount of available and consumed resources varies in different periods. It also allows for interactive adjustment following the optimisation process, to provide decision makers a method for controlling portfolio selection, based on criteria that may be difficult to elicit directly. It is critical for such a system to provide fast evaluation of alternatives the decision makers may want to examine, and this requirement is addressed. The proposed model not only suggests projects that should be incorporated in the optimal portfolio, but it also determines the starting period for each project. Scheduling considerations can have a major impact on the combination of projects that can be incorporated in the portfolio, and may allow the addition of certain projects to the portfolio that could not have been selected otherwise. An example problem is described and solved with the proposed model, and some areas for future research are discussed.