Functional limit theorems for a new class of non-stationary shot noise processes

We study a class of non-stationary shot noise processes which have a general arrival process of noises with non-stationary arrival rate and a general shot shape function. Given the arrival times, the shot noises are conditionally independent and each shot noise has a general (multivariate) cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) depending on its arrival time. We prove a functional weak law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for this new class of non-stationary shot noise processes in an asymptotic regime with a high intensity of shot noises, under some mild regularity conditions on the shot shape function and the conditional (multivariate) c.d.f. We discuss the applications to a simple multiplicative model (which includes a class of non-stationary compound processes and applies to insurance risk theory and physics) and the queueing and work-input processes in an associated non-stationary infinite-server queueing system. To prove the weak convergence, we show new maximal inequalities and a new criterion of existence of a stochastic process in the space $\mathbb{D}$ given its consistent finite dimensional distributions, which involve a finite set function with the superadditive property.     

Stochastic control of funding systems

This paper is concerned with funding systems, i.e. systems which accumulate funds for the future payment of financial obligations. Commonly, such funding requires a balance between (1) the desire to minimise the contributions that need to be diverted from other use to the support of the Fund, and (2) the need to maintain reasonable solvency in the Fund.Such funding is discussed here in a general framework. Applications are numerous. The specific applications mentioned in the paper are:

• Defined benefit retirement funding,

• Maintenance of a prudential margin by a non-life insurer,

• Dividend payment strategy.

The paper applies stochastic optimal control theory to determine how rates of contribution to the Fund and allocation of its assets by asset sector should respond to changing solvency. These results are obtainable from a particular differential equation, which may be solved numerically. Detailed numerical examples are provided.     

基于Tsallis理论的中国股市收益分布研究

应用Tsallis提出的非广延统计力学理论以及与之密切相关的非线性Fokker-Planck方程所描述的动力系统,根据我国上证指数和深证指数2004年1月1日～2008年11月13日的高频数据,分析了在三种不同的时间标度下股指收益的概率分布,发现Tsallis分布可以很好地描述两市收益分布的尖峰厚尾有限方差等特征,同时也给出了市场微观动力学层面的解释。揭示出我国上海和深圳股市的价格过程并不符合随机游走,而是反常扩散过程,两市具有十分接近的非线性动力系统特征。所得结论对于研究我国金融市场的资产配置和定价、风险管理和制度建设都具有重要的意义。     

Considerations on the application of the chaos paradigm to describe the postural sway

Time-series of statokinesigram (SKG) of healthy subjects and parkinsonians are investigated and compared. This is done by employing the chaos paradigm in order to obtain the main characteristics of the SKG. The interpretation of our findings is twofold:

when a proper Theiler window is not used we find a virtual invariance of the chaos parameters when healthy subjects and parkinsonians are compared but a discrepancy of our values (correlation dimension equals to 1.4) with those found in previous works;

when a proper Theiler window is used (more) appropriately, the SKGs do not show a convergence of the fractal dimension estimates; therefore nothing can be said in terms of chaoticity of system.

Fractal Activity Time Models for Risky Asset with Dependence and Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions

Risky asset models with the dependence through fractal activity time are described. The construction of the fractal activity time is implemented via superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes driven by Lévy noise. The model features both tractable dependence structure and desired marginal distributions of the returns from the generalized hyperbolic class: the Variance Gamma and normal inverse Gaussian. These distributions provide good fit to real financial data. Pricing formulae for the proposed models are derived.     

Common volatility and correlation clustering in asset returns

We present a new multivariate framework for the estimation and forecasting of the evolution of financial asset conditional correlations. Our approach assumes return innovations with time dependent covariances. A Cholesky decomposition of the asset covariance matrix, with elements written as sines and cosines of spherical coordinates allows for modelling conditional variances and correlations and guarantees its positive definiteness at each time t. As in Christodoulakis and Satchell [Christodoulakis, G.A., Satchell, S.E., 2002. Correlated ARCH (CorrARCH): Modelling the time-varying conditional correlation between financial asset returns. European Journal of Operational Research 139 (2), 350–369] correlation is generated by conditionally autoregressive processes, thus allowing for an autocorrelation structure for correlation. Our approach allows for explicit out-of-sample forecasting and is consistent with stylized facts as time-varying correlations and correlation clustering, co-movement between correlation coefficients, correlation and volatility as well as between volatility processes (co-volatility). The latter two are shown to depend on correlation and volatility persistence. Empirical evidence on a trivariate model using monthly data from Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Composite and the 3-month US Treasury Bill yield supports our theoretical arguments.     

Repair-replace strategies for two-dimensional warranty policies

For repairable items sold with free replacement warranty, the actions available to the manufacturer to rectify failures under warranty are to

1. (1) repair the failed item or

2. (2) replace it with a new one.

A proper repair-replace strategy can reduce the expected cost of servicing the warranty. In this paper, we study repair-replace strategies for items sold with a two-dimensional free replacement warranty.     

The fixed point property in -triples and preduals of -triples

We prove that for every member X in the class of real or complex JB^*-triples or preduals of JBW^*-triples, the following assertions are equivalent:

(1) X has the fixed point property.

(2) X has the super fixed point property.

(3) X has normal structure.

(4) X has uniform normal structure.

(5) The Banach space of X is reflexive.

As a consequence, a real or complex C^*-algebra or the predual of a real or complex W^*-algebra having the fixed point property must be finite-dimensional.

Asymptotic stability, ergodicity and other asymptotic properties of the nonlinear filter

In this work we study connections between various asymptotic properties of the nonlinear filter. It is assumed that the signal has a unique invariant probability measure. The key property of interest is expressed in terms of a relationship between the observation σ field and the tail σ field of the signal, in the stationary filtering problem. This property can be viewed as the permissibility of the interchange of the order of the operations of maximum and countable intersection for certain σ-fields. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that the above property is equivalent to various desirable properties of the filter such as

(a) uniqueness of invariant measure for the signal,

(b) uniqueness of invariant measure for the pair (signal, filter),

(c) a finite memory property of the filter,

(d) a property of finite time dependence between the signal and observation σ fields and

(e) asymptotic stability of the filter.

Previous works on the asymptotic stability of the filter for a variety of filtering models then identify a rich class of filtering problems for which the above equivalent properties hold.     

Risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on infinite time horizon

We consider a continuous time portfolio optimization problems on an infinite time horizon for a factor model, recently treated by Bielecki and Pliska ["Risk-sensitive dynamic asset management", Appl. Math. Optim. , 39 (1990) 337-360], where the mean returns of individual securities or asset categories are explicitly affected by economic factors. The factors are assumed to be Gaussian processes. We see new features in constructing optimal strategies for risk-sensitive criteria of the portfolio optimization on an infinite time horizon, which are obtained from the solutions of matrix Riccati equations.     

Bounds on sets with few distances

We derive a new estimate of the size of finite sets of points in metric spaces with few distances. The following applications are considered:

•

we improve the Ray-Chaudhuri-Wilson bound of the size of uniform intersecting families of subsets;

•

we refine the bound of Delsarte-Goethals-Seidel on the maximum size of spherical sets with few distances;

•

we prove a new bound on codes with few distances in the Hamming space, improving an earlier result of Delsarte.

We also find the size of maximal binary codes and maximal constant-weight codes of small length with 2 and 3 distances.