具有均值和方差的HNBUE分布类中可靠度的下界

本文导出了具有均值和方差的ＨＮＢＵＥ分布类中可靠度的指数型下界，给出了ＮＢＵ和ＮＢＵＥ分布类中可靠度的新的下界，提供了估计这些分布类中可靠度最低限的方法。     

Testing whether survival function is harmonic new better than used in expectation

Summary Statistical procedures to test that a life distribution is exponential against the alternative that it is harmonic new better than used in expectation (HNBUE) are considered.     

Reliability and expectation bounds for coherent systems with exchangeable components

Sharp upper and lower bounds are obtained for the reliability functions and the expectations of lifetimes of coherent systems based on dependent exchangeable absolutely continuous components with a given marginal distribution function, by use of the concept of Samaniego's signature. We first show that the distribution of any coherent system based on exchangeable components with absolutely continuous joint distribution is a convex combination of distributions of order statistics (equivalent to the k-out-of-n systems) with the weights identical with the values of the Samaniego signature of the system. This extends the Samaniego representation valid for the case of independent and identically distributed components. Combining the representation with optimal bounds on linear combinations of distribution functions of order statistics from dependent identically distributed samples, we derive the corresponding reliability and expectation bounds, dependent on the signature of the system and marginal distribution of dependent components. We also present the sequences of exchangeable absolutely continuous joint distributions of components which attain the bounds in limit. As an application, we obtain the reliability bounds for all the coherent systems with three and four exchangeable components, expressed in terms of the parent marginal reliability function and specify the respective expectation bounds for exchangeable exponential components, comparing them with the lifetime expectations of systems with independent and identically distributed exponential components.     

New reliability bounds for coherent systems

In 1970, Esary and Proschan proposed simple formulae for the system reliability lower bound and system reliability upper bound. Their formulae of reliability bounds have been classic and have been incorporated into almost all recent textbooks on reliability. In this paper, we decompose a coherent system into several consecutive-k-out-of-n : F(G) systems, and then based upon their exact formulae for system reliabilities, we develop new formulae for both reliability lower bound and reliability upper bound for the coherent system. In addition, we show that the new proposed reliability bounds are superior to those of Esary and Proschan for all coherent systems when the minimal cut/path sets have elements in common. Numerical results are reported, compared and discussed for various systems.     

On equivalence of weak convergence and moment convergence of life distributions

We investigate the equivalence of weak convergence and moment convergence of life distributions in a family which is larger than the HNBUE family. Also, we point out that within the HNBUE family the exponential distribution can be characterized by one value of its Laplace-Stieltjes transform.     

On Markov?CKrein characterization of the mean waiting time in M/G/K and other queueing systems

We propose a new research direction to reinvigorate research into better understanding of the M/G/K and other queueing systems??via obtaining tight bounds on the mean waiting time as functions of the moments of the service distribution. Analogous to the classical Markov?CKrein theorem, we conjecture that the bounds on the mean waiting time are achieved by service distributions corresponding to the upper/lower principal representations of the moment sequence. We present analytical, numerical, and simulation evidence in support of our conjectures.     

The marshall and stoyan bounds for IMRL/G/1 queues are tight

Previously established upper and lower bounds for the mean waiting time in a GI/G/1 queue given an interarrival-time distribution with increasing mean residual life are shown to be tight. Distributions for which the inequalities become equalities are displayed. The corresponding bounds for DMRL distributions are not tight.     

Proximity between life distributions and exponential distributions (I)

Many classes of life distributions have been introduced into reliability theory. Because of the importance of exponential distributions in reliability theory, it is interesting to study the difference between life distributions and exponential distributions. In this paper, we study the proximity between the life distribution in various classes and the exponential distribution. We shall give some simple upper bounds.This research was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Bounds on convex reliability functions with known first moments

In this paper, upper and lower bounds are derived for convex reliability functions (or survival functions) with known first n moments. The case where the mean and the variance are given (n = 2) is discussed in details and explicit expressions are provided. Extensions for n ? 3 moments are described. Comparisons with existing bounds are performed.     

Reliability of a system with regular inspection times

A method of calculating upper and lower bounds of the reliability function and mean life time is proposed for a system subjected to regular inspections. With the help of minimal cut sets, a lower bound of the reliability function is obtained; the corresponding numerical procedure requires minor calculations. Supported in part by the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research (grant No. 95-01-00023), the International Science Foundation and the Russian Government (grant J76100), and the EEC (grant INTAS-93-893). Proceedings of the XVII Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Kazan, Russia, 1995, Part I.     

Some completely monotonic functions involving polygamma functions and an application

By using the first Binet's formula the strictly completely monotonic properties of functions involving the psi and polygamma functions are obtained. As direct consequences, two inequalities are proved. As an application, the best lower and upper bounds of the nth harmonic number are established.     

Sub-stochastic matrix analysis for bounds computation—Theoretical results

Performance evaluation of complex systems is a critical issue and bounds computation provides confidence about service quality, reliability, etc. of such systems. The stochastic ordering theory has generated a lot of works on bounds computation. Maximal lower and minimal upper bounds of a Markov chain by a st-monotone one exist and can be efficiently computed. In the present work, we extend simultaneously this last result in two directions. On the one hand, we handle the case of a maximal monotone lower bound of a family of Markov chains where the coefficients are given by numerical intervals. On the other hand, these chains are sub-chains associated to sub-stochastic matrices. We prove the existence of this maximal bound and we provide polynomial time algorithms to compute it both for discrete and continuous Markov chains. Moreover, it appears that the bounding sub-chain of a family of strictly sub-stochastic ones is not necessarily strictly sub-stochastic. We establish a characterization of the families of sub-chains for which these bounds are strictly sub-stochastic. Finally, we show how to apply these results to a classical model of repairable system. A forthcoming paper will present detailed numerical results and comparison with other methods.     

On consecutive-k-out-of-n: F systems

First a brief survey of the consecutive-k-out-of-n: F system is given. Through the use of structure function and using network diagrams to represent the system, system reliability and algorithms for generating all the minimal path and cut sets are obtained. A lower bound and three upper bounds of the systems reliability are given.     

On bounds for bulk arrival queues

This paper gives a simple and effective approach pf deriving bounds for bulk arrival queues by making use of the bounds for single arrival queues. With this approach, upper bounds of mean actual/virtual waiting times and mean queue length at random epochs can be derived for the bulk arrival queues GI^X/G/1 and GI^X/G/c (lower bounds can be derived in a similar way). The merit of this approach is shown by comparing the bounds obtained with some existing results in the literature.     

Analysis of an open tandem queueing network with population constraint and constant service times 1

We consider an open tandem queueing network with population constraint and constant service times. The total number of customers that may be present in the network can not exceed a given value K. Customers arriving at the queueing network when there are more than K customers are forced to wait in an external queue. The arrival process to the queueing network is assumed to be arbitrary. We show that this queueing network can be transformed into a simple network involving only two nodes. Using this simple network, we obtain an upper and lower bound on the mean waiting time. These bounds can be easily calculated. Validations against simulation data establish the tightness of these bounds.     

A relationship between subpermanents and the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality

Using the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality, we give bounds for k-subpermanents of nonnegative n×n matrices F. In the case k=n, we exhibit an n²-set S whose arithmetic and geometric means constitute upper and lower bounds for per(F)/n!. We offer sharpened versions of these bounds when F has zero-valued entries.     

First Hitting Time Analysis of the Independence Metropolis Sampler

In this paper, we study a special case of the Metropolis algorithm, the Independence Metropolis Sampler (IMS), in the finite state space case. The IMS is often used in designing components of more complex Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We present new results related to the first hitting time of individual states for the IMS. These results are expressed mostly in terms of the eigenvalues of the transition kernel. We derive a simple form formula for the mean first hitting time and we show tight lower and upper bounds on the mean first hitting time with the upper bound being the product of two factors: a “local” factor corresponding to the target state and a “global” factor, common to all the states, which is expressed in terms of the total variation distance between the target and the proposal probabilities. We also briefly discuss properties of the distribution of the first hitting time for the IMS and analyze its variance. We conclude by showing how some non-independence Metropolis–Hastings algorithms can perform better than the IMS and deriving general lower and upper bounds for the mean first hitting times of a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.     

Optimal designs for weighted approximation and integration of stochastic processes on [0,∞)

We study minimal errors and optimal designs for weighted L₂-approximation and weighted integration of Gaussian stochastic processes X defined on the half-line [0,∞). Under some regularity conditions, we obtain sharp bounds for the minimal errors for approximation and upper bounds for the minimal errors for integration. The upper bounds are proven constructively for approximation and non-constructively for integration. For integration of the r-fold integrated Brownian motion, the upper bound is proven constructively and we have a matching lower bound.     

A dynamic bounding algorithm for approximating multi-state two-terminal reliability

This paper modifies Jane and Laih’s (2008) exact and direct algorithm to provide sequences of upper bounds and lower bounds that converge to the NP-hard multi-state two-terminal reliability. Advantages of the modified algorithm include (1) it does not require a priori the lower and/or upper boundary points of the network, (2) it derives a series of increasing lower bounds and a series of decreasing upper bounds simultaneously, guaranteed to enclose the exact reliability value, and (3) trade-off between accuracy and execution time can be made to ensure an exact difference between the upper and lower bounds within an acceptable time. Examples are analyzed to illustrate the bounding algorithm, and to compare the bounding algorithm with existing algorithms. Computational experiments on a large network are conducted to realize the performance of the bounding algorithm.     

Computation of sharp bounds on the distribution of a function of dependent risks

We propose a new algorithm to compute numerically sharp lower and upper bounds on the distribution of a function of d dependent random variables having fixed marginal distributions. Compared to the existing literature, the bounds are widely applicable, more accurate and more easily obtained.