MARKEX: An intelligent decision support system for product development decisions

A new methodology for the development of new products and an intelligent DSS, named MARKEX, which is an implementation of this methodology, are presented in this paper. The system acts as a consultant for marketers, providing visual support to enhance understanding and to overcome lack of expertise. The databases of the system are the results of consumer surveys, as well as financial information of the enterprises involved in the decision making process. The system's model base encompasses statistical analysis, preference analysis, and consumer choice models. MARKEX incorporates partial knowledge bases to support decision makers in different stages of the product development process.     

A new stochastic ultrametric tree unfolding methodology for assessing competitive market structure and deriving market segments

We present a new methodology for simultaneously assessing competitive market structure and deriving market segments. A hierarchical or ultrametric tree representation is estimated in a maximum likelihood framework from collected paired-comparison choice data. The derived tree portrays both brands and consumers/households/segments as terminal nodes, where the ‘closer’ a brand is to a particular consumer/household/segment in the tree, the higher the predicted probability of that consumer/household/segment choosing that particular brand. This paper initially presents an introduction to the problem of market structure assessment. We review the extensive marketing literature on market structure and survey several competing methodologies. The proposed stochastic ultrametric tree unfolding methodology is technically described and several program options are indicated. An illustration of the proposed methodology is presented with respect to paired comparison choice data collected from a convenience sample involving the over-the-counter analgesics market. Finally, several areas for future research are identified.     

Agricultural product development using multidimensional and multicriteria analyses: The case of wine

Multicriteria analysis and multidimensional statistical methods can collaborate and offer new prospects in the fields of decision support and management in general. This paper presents a survey-based methodology which combines a multicriteria model for the consumer's preference analysis as well as classical data analysis models to design agricultural products. The new products are developed in such a way that they eventually achieve the maximum possible market share. A real study for the Athenian wine market is presented for illustration. The paper concludes with some further reccomendations.     

Diffstrat: An analytical procedure for generating optimal new product concepts for a differentiated-type strategy

Firms are likely to consider employing multiple products in markets where competition and heterogeneity of consumer preferences suggest the use of market segmentation. The problem of identifying the optimal multiple new product concepts for such a market may be considered in either a sequential (one product at a time) or a simultaneous fashion. We show that the ‘optimal’ new product concepts generated sequentially are different from, and generality inferior to, those generated simultaneously. In this paper we present a new procedure, Diffstrat, which solves this problem of generating simultaneously optimal multiple new products for a wide range of consumer preference models. This procedure utilizes a fundamental insight called the augmented space approach to solve this problem.     

消费者偏好、市场准入与产品安全水平:基于双寡头两阶段博弈模型分析

考虑消费者产品安全偏好和产品安全水平等因素,针对采取不同产品安全战略的两个寡头制造商,建立了两阶段博弈模型:第一阶段为两制造商选择各自的产品安全度水平,第二阶段为两产品制造商确定各自的产品价格。通过数值仿真重点讨论了消费者产品安全偏好支付系数和产品安全市场准入值两参数变化带来的影响。结果表明:消费者安全偏好支付系数提高时,两制造商利润均增加;产品安全准入值提高时,低价战略采取者的利润下降;主动安全战略采取者利润增加。所得结论对于产品安全管理中政府及不同类型制造商的决策具有参考价值和指导意义。     

Consumer choice behaviour and new product development: an integrated market simulation approach

The extremely high costs associated with the commercial failure of a new product, stresses the importance of a model that will effectively forecast the market penetration of a product at the design stage. The purpose of our study is to discover heuristics that will better explain market share, an issue of considerable concern to industry, which also, if successfully pursued, will increase the value of the analytical tools developed for managers. A method easy to implement is presented, which improves the value of market simulations in conjoint analysis. The proposed approach deals with two issues common to traditional market simulations in the context of conjoint analysis applications—the lack of differential impact of attributes across alternatives and the absence of accounting for differential substitution across brands (ie, the Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives problem). We deal with the first issue by ‘tuning’ utilities with individual level exponents, as opposed to a common exponent under the ‘ALPHA’ rule (the current state of the art approach). These exponents derive from the range, skewness and kurtosis of the distribution of utilities that a respondent assigns to various products. While these exponents are individual specific, the effects of the coefficients are assumed to be homogeneous across consumers to preserve model parsimony, while accounting for observed heterogeneity in the data. The second issue is studied in the model via a similarity ‘correction’ for each pair of products. The performance of the approach is validated both on real data from a market survey concerning milk, and on simulated data through the design of a Monte Carlo experiment. The results of the simulation for different market scenarios indicate that the approach appropriately exhibits the theoretical properties that are necessary for the efficient representation of consumer choice behaviour. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the state of the art methodology, as well as some more traditional approaches, with regard to the forecasting accuracy on market shares estimation, both on the real and the simulated data sets. The results obtained have important implications for marketing managers concerning the design of new products. A new concept can be tested before it enters the production stage, using data obtained from a market survey. The high predictive accuracy of the model may assist a firm in minimizing the uncertainty and risks associated with a new product launch. The case study with data from a real market survey, illustrates the practical applicability of the approach.     

消费者异质性下基础产品及其附加品的供应链定价策略研究

建立一个由制造商和销售商组成的二级供应链模型,在销售商向消费者销售制造商基础产品的同时提供可选附加品的供应链多产品定价背景下研究了制造商及销售商的定价策略。以消费者对附加品价值增值存在的异质性将基础产品及其附加品的消费市场细分为基础产品单独消费市场及产品共同消费市场。基于市场细分比例以及附加品价值增值程度,讨论了不同条件下制造商及销售商的定价策略以及所形成的供应链定价均衡,分析了产品定价均衡与市场细分比例、附加品价值增值程度之间的关系。     

考虑零售商保鲜和消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链协调

针对消费者对生鲜农产品新鲜度要求更高但零售商单独保鲜能力有限的问题,从提高消费效用角度出发,构建了受生鲜农产品新鲜度和价格影响的消费者时变效用函数,建立了由零售商和供应商组成的两级生鲜农产品供应链利润模型,采用Stackberg博弈方法分析了分散式决策下供应商的最优保鲜努力和零售商的最优定价,并同集中式决策下供应链系统的最优决策进行比较。由于分散式决策下零售商的保鲜努力较小,因此给出了能够实现生鲜农产品供应链协调的“保鲜成本分担+收益共享”契约。在此基础上,以同时实现供应链协调和提高消费者整体效用为目标,进一步确定了协调契约所在的区间范围。最后通过算例证明了协调契约的有效性。     

The Organization and Improvement of Market Forecasting

Quantitative forecasting techniques are not much used in organizations. Instead, organizations rely on the judgement of managers working close to the product market. Increasingly however, developments at the interface between marketing and operations require more accurate forecasting. Quantitative marketing models have that potential. Drawing on theories from the ‘diffusion of innovation’ literature and results on ‘the barriers to effective implementation’, this paper first considers those factors that should be included in any complete evaluation of market forecasting. Using this framework and based on detailed survey work in a multi-divisional organization, the paper then describes how this company produces its market forecasts, and the perceptions of its managers as to inadequacies in the procedures. Reasons are proposed as to why quantitative forecasting techniques are not effectively used. The paper concludes with a discussion of the causes behind the organization's mismanagement of their forecasting activity and how these activities might best be improved.     

考虑消费者预期后悔的企业新产品推介策略

考虑消费者预期后悔因素,在分别提供新型、旧型产品的两个企业构成的市场中,建立了企业产品推介策略模型,分析了预期后悔对企业的产品推介和定价策略及利润的影响。消费者购买新产品后实际效用低于旧产品则产生转换后悔,购买旧产品后实际效用低于新产品则产生重复购买后悔。结果表明:消费者对转换后悔的厌恶程度越大,新企业的产品推介投资越多,两个企业的价格和利润越小,而重复购买后悔厌恶时的结论则相反。相比无后悔因素的情况,转换后悔和重复购买后悔的存在分别损害和增加两个企业的利润,后悔因素对新企业利润的影响比旧企业更大。此外,转换后悔的存在会促使新企业增加产品推介投资,而重复购买后悔的存在则导致相反结论。     

Estimating consumers' willingness to pay for individual quality attributes with DEA

In a highly competitive environment, a product's commercial success depends increasingly more upon the ability to satisfy consumers' preferences that are highly diversified. Since a product typically comprises a host of technological attributes, its market value incorporates all of the individual values of technological attributes. If the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for individual quality attributes of a product is known, one can conjecture the overall WTP or the imputed market price for the product. The market price listed by the producer has to be equal to or lower than this WTP for the commercial survival of the product. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating the value of individual product characteristics and thus the overall WTP of the product with DEA. Our methodology is based on a model derived from consumer demand theory on the one hand, and the recent developments in DEA on the other hand. The paper also presents a real case study for the mobile phone market, which is characterized by its high speed of innovation. On the theoretical side, we expect our framework to provide a possibility of combining DEA and consumer demand theory. We also expect that the empirical application will shed some light on the nature of the process of product differentiation based on consumers' valuation.     

碳转移与消费者低碳偏好双重影响下供应链异质性产品定价与协调研究

准确提炼碳转移和消费者低碳偏好对供应链异质性产品定价影响机理,不但有助于优化供应链企业间碳排放转移行为,而且也有助于协调供应链主体的定价行为。本文通过构建供应商主导的Stackelberg博弈模型,并将供应链企业间碳排放转移和消费者低偏好纳入到该模型中,分别在分散和集中情景下分析了碳转移和消费者低碳偏好对供应链异质性产品销售价和批发价的影响;针对分散情景下供应链整体利润损失,采用Shapley值协调供应链。研究表明：供应链企业间碳排放转移会正向影响普通产品批发价,但针对低碳产品而言,批发价会先短暂下降后上升;供应链企业间碳排放转移的存在会使得供应链产品销售价先下降后上升,其中普通产品销售价变化幅度更大;消费者低碳偏好对供应链产品定价的影响与碳转移量有关,其中低碳产品定价对消费者低碳偏好的敏感度高于普通产品;碳转移量和消费者低碳偏好达到一定值时,低碳产品会对普通产品产生市场挤兑效应。     

Evaluation of the warranty cost of a product with type III stochastic dependence between components

This paper analyses respectively the expected warranty costs from the perspectives of the manufacturer and the consumer. For a two-component series system with stochastic dependence between components, both the non-renewing free replacement policy and the renewing replacement policy are examined. It is assumed that whenever component 1 fails, a random damage to component 2 is occurred while a component 2 failure causes the system failure. Component 2 fails when its total accumulative damage exceeds a pre-determined level L. By considering the consumer’s behavior and the product service time, the warranty costs allocations between the manufacturer and the consumer are presented. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. It is proved that, independent of the type of the warranty policy, the failure interaction between components impacts the manufacturer profits and the consumer costs. The initial warranty length has also an impact on the product quality preferences to both the consumer and the manufacturer.     

消费者非均匀偏好条件下高校项目开发策略

为了探究教育项目消费者随机需求条件下的不同层次高校的竞优策略, 运用Stackelberg博弈方法, 构建了消费者偏好服从非均匀分布的不同层次高校开发同类教育项目的定位设计模型, 分析了消费者偏好行为对教育项目收益的影响规律以及双方的竞优策略。结果显示, H型高校(声誉较高)不受消费者偏好等市场因素影响, 始终选择最大差异化策略。L型高校(声誉较低)在消费者无差异偏好偏向自己一方时也不受市场因素影响采取最大差异化策略; 而在消费者无差异偏好偏向它方时, 若市场需求概率小于0.5则选择最大差异化策略, 否则其决策将受到自身初始位值、市场概率等因素的综合影响, 并适时选择最大差异化、有限差异化或有限趋同化策略。     

The Statistical Analysis of a Disparity Test

A market research survey was conducted using a Disparity test to measure the change in preference for four consumer products, as the products became progressively "worn" through use. The results were analysed to see if the deterioration in average preference for a product was uniformly less than for another product, in order to see if "longer lasting" claims for this product could be made for one of the dimensions measured in the test. By fitting a suitable statistical model to the data using weighted least squares estimation it was possible to infer that it was reasonable to make such a claim for one of the products.     

Re-designing industrial products on a multi-objective basis: a case study

Environmentally conscious product design has received significant attention recently. Apart from new products’ development, environmental considerations may also apply for products that manufacturers have already launched in the market. In this case, manufacturers can also make use of their considerable experience gained over the phases following product design (eg production, use, end-of-life, etc) in order to promote substantial improvements as regards their re-designed products’ performance. This paper presents a methodological framework for manufacturers based on Multiple Objective Integer Programming in order to re-design industrial products. The proposed approach includes re-designed product's cost, environmental impact, weight and ease of disassembly. The methodology is applied to a real-world case study, that of netMod network terminal.     

New product advertising in dynamic oligopolies

The success of the introduction of a new product in a market is very sensitive to the marketing decision variables adopted by the firm. In the present paper we are concerned with the question of new product advertising in a heterogeneous oligopoly market consisting of N firms. A dynamic game is formulated to model strategic as well as sales interactions in such a market. Optimal advertising strategies are identified as open-loop Nash solutions.The comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated. The first author wishes to acknowledge support from NSERC (Grant No. OGP0037342).     

社会化媒体对品牌偏好的影响研究:基于顾客感知价值的视角

本文结合社会化媒体购物新模式的特征,依据消费者需求和行为影响理论,重构了顾客感知价值维度。在上述基础上,提出社会化媒体对品牌偏好的影响理论模型,并利用层级回归方法,对新网络购物环境下的顾客感知价值和品牌偏好间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,顾客感知社交价值、质量价值、服务价值、形象价值和利他价值正向影响品牌偏好的形成,而经济价值对品牌偏好的影响并不显著;社会化媒体信息质量在不同的感知价值与品牌偏好之间起着不同程度的调节作用。最后,结合相关结论提出了相应的营销管理建议。     

The implementation of simultaneous engineering in the stage of product concept development: A process orientated improvement of quality function deployment

Quality Function Deployment (QFD) has been introduced as a method of implementing Simultaneous Engineering. In spite of its achievements so far, QFD does not sufficiently link engineering to marketing and marketing science. The QFD procedure takes neither the development of market orientated or constructional product concepts, nor the coordination of both into account, although they play an important role in product definition. In order to overcome this and other deficiencies of the traditional QFD method, the author develops the process model of ‘Integrated Concept Development’ (ICoDe). It is proposed to fill the gap between marketing science and engineering by consequently relating market orientated concept development and testing to the House of Quality concept of QFD. The ICoDe process is described by refering to a ‘simulated’ application example of a wind turbines concept development.     

A comprehensive decision support model for the evaluation of eco-designs

Due to regulatory pressures from government and non-government bodies and public awareness of the need to protect the environment, incorporating sustainability concerns in product design has become a key strategic consideration in new product development. However, selecting an appropriate sustainable design solution is a challenging task. In addition to the fact that such a decision involves conflicting objectives, there is also the issue that environmental impact considerations can occur at all stages of a product’s life cycle. Modelling and assessing new product development and operations management from a life cycle assessment (LCA) perspective is becoming increasingly popular and highly important. However, on its own it is somewhat limited. This paper presents a dynamic approach that integrates LCA, fuzzy logic and analytical network process (ANP) to support the selection of environmental sustainable product designs. A numerical example is provided as an operational guideline on how to apply it to LCA of eco-designs. The results show that the proposed fuzzy ANP approach is a viable methodology and can be used as an effective tool for the evaluation of environmental sustainable product designs.