A Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Extremal Index

The extremal index, (01), is the key parameter when extending discussions of the limiting behavior of the extreme values from independent and identically distributed sequences to stationary sequences. As measures the limiting dependence of exceedances over a threshold u, as u tends to the upper endpoint of the distribution, it may not always be informative about the extremal dependence at levels of practical interest. Therefore we also consider a threshold-based extremal index, (u). We compare the performance of a range of different estimators for and (u) covering processes with < 1 and = 1. We find that the established methods for estimating actually estimate (u), so perform well only when (u) . For Markov processes, we introduce an estimator which is as good as the established methods when (u) but provides an improvement when (u) < = 1. We illustrate our methods using simulated data and daily rainfall measurements.     

Efficient robust tests in parametric models

Summary Let {P :}, an open subset of R ^k , be a regular parametric model for a sample of n independent, identically distributed observations. Formulated and solved in this paper is a robust version of the classical multi-sided hypothesis testing problem concerning , or a subvector of . In the robust testing problem, the usual parametric null hypothesis and alternatives are both replaced with larger, more realistic, sets of possible distributions for each observation. These sets, defined in terms of a Hellinger metric projection of the actual distribution onto a subspace associated with the parametric null hypothesis, are required to shrink as sample size increases, so as to avoid trivial asymptotics. One construction of an asymptotically minimax test for the robust testing problem is based upon the robust estimate of developed in Beran (1979); another construction amounts to an adaptively modified C() test.Research supported by National Science Foundation Grant MCS 75-10376     

Lévy homeomorphic parametrization and exponential families

Summary Let P={P : } be an exponential family of probability distributions with the canonical parameter and consider the one to one mapping : P . It is shown that, under mild regularity assumptions, and ^–1 are continuous with respect to the Lévy metric in P and Euclidean metric in .     

Nonparametric Inference for a Class of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations II

Consider the stochastic partial differential equationdu (t,x) = (t)u (t, x)dt + dW _Q(t,x), 0 t T where = ₂/x ₂, and is a class of positive valued functions. We obtain an estimator for the linear multiplier (t) and establish the consistency, rate of convergence and asymptotic normality of this estimator as 0.     

Exact Solution of the Ising Model on the Cayley Tree with Competing Ternary and Binary Interactions

The exact solution is found for the problem of phase transitions in the Ising model with competing ternary and binary interactions. For the pair of parameters =(J) and ₁=₁(J ₁) in the plane (₁,), we find two critical curves such that a phase transition occurs for all pairs (₁,) lying between the curves.     

Asymptotic Formulae and Divisor Problems

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the summatory functions of _z(n, ), _k(n, ) z ⁽ⁿ⁾ and _k(n, ) z ⁽ⁿ⁾.     

A graded scale of parametric families of distributions,and parameter estimates based on the sample mean

Summary Denote by _k a class of familiesP={P} of distributions on the line R¹ depending on a general scalar parameter , being an interval of R¹, and such that the moments µ₁()=xdP ,...,µ_2k ()=x ^2k dP are finite, ₁ (), ..., _k (), _k+1 () ..., _k () exist and are continuous, with ₁ () 0, and _j +1 ()= ₁ () _j () +[₂() -₁()²] _j ()/ ₁ (), J=2, ..., k. Let ₁=¯x=x ₁ + ... +x _n/n, ₂=x ₁ ² + ... +x _n ²/n, ..., _k =(x ₁ ^k + ... +x _n ^k/n denote the sample moments constructed for a sample x₁, ..., x_n from a population with distribution Pg. We prove that the estimator of the parameter by the method of moments determined from the equation ₁= ₁() and depending on the observations x₁, ..., x_n only via the sample mean ¯x is asymptotically admissible (and optimal) in the class _k of the estimators determined by the estimator equations of the form ₀ () + ₁ () ₁ + ... + _k () _k =0 if and only ifP _k .The asymptotic admissibility (respectively, optimality) means that the variance of the limit, as n (normal) distribution of an estimator normalized in a standard way is less than the same characteristic for any estimator in the class under consideration for at least one 9 (respectively, for every ).The scales arise of classes _{1 2}... of parametric families and of classes _{1 2} ... of estimators related so that the asymptotic admissibility of an estimator by the method of moments in the class _k is equivalent to the membership of the familyP in the class _k .The intersection consists only of the families of distributions with densities of the form h(x) exp {C₀() + C₁() x } when for the latter the problem of moments is definite, that is, there is no other family with the same moments ₁ (), ₂ (), ...Such scales in the problem of estimating the location parameter were predicted by Linnik about 20 years ago and were constructed by the author in [1] (see also [2, 3]) in exact, not asymptotic, formulation.Translated from Problemy Ustoichivosti Stokhasticheskikh Modelei, pp. 41–47, 1981.     

On the factor-thickness of regular graphs

For eachr-regular graphG, define a binary sequence(G) = ( ₁, ₂,..., _r-1) by _k = 0 ifG has ak-factor, and _k = 1 otherwise. A binary sequence = ( _i |i = 1, 2,...,r – 1) is said to be realizable if there exists anr-regular graphG such that(G) = . In this paper we characterize all binary sequences which are realizable.     

Survival of Threshold Contact Processes

We consider the d-dimensional threshold contact process. Suppose that a vacant site becomes occupied at rate one when there are at least occupied sites in its neighborhood, and the death rate at any site is >0. We will explicitly give two integers ab with the following properties: For a the process survives starting from finite configurations when is small, but for >a the process dies out starting from any finite configuration with any positive death rate. For b the process has a nontrivial invariant measure when is small, but for >b the only invariant measure is the all-zero configuration for any positive death rate.     

Inner functions and related spaces of pseudocontinuable functions

Let be an inner function, let C, ¦¦=1. Then the harmonic function [(+)]/(–)] is the Poisson integral of a singular measure D. N. Clark's known theorem enables us to identify in a natural manner the space H² H² with the space L² ( ).Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova Akademii Nauk SSSR, Vol. 170, pp. 7–33, 1989.     

On the speed of convergence in the central limit theorem of log-likelihood ratio processes

Let , the parameter space, be an open subset ofR ^k ,k1. For each , let the r.v.'sX _n ,n=1, 2,... be defined on the probability space (X, P ) and take values in (S,S,L) whereS is a Borel subset of a Euclidean space andL is the -field of Borel subsets ofS. ForhR _k and a sequence of p.d. normalizing matrices _n = _n ^{k × k} (₀ set _n ^* = ^* = ₀ + _n h, where ₀ is the true value of , such that ^*, . Let _n (^*, _*)( be the log-likelihood ratio of the probability measure with respect to the probability measure , whereP _n is the restriction ofP over _n = (X ₁,X ₂,...,X _n . In this paper we, under a very general dependence setup obtain a rate of convergence of the normalized log-likelihood ratio statistic to Standard Normal Variable. Two examples are taken into account.     

Two Exterior Algebras for Orthogonal and Symplectic Quantum Groups

Let be one of the N ²-dimensional bicovariant first-order differential calculi on the quantum groups O _q (N) or Sp _q (N), where q is not a root of unity. We show that the second antisymmetrizer exterior algebra _s is the quotient of the universal exterior algebra _u by the principal ideal generated by . Here denotes the unique up to scalars bi-invariant 1-form. Moreover, is central in _u and _u is an inner differential calculus.     

Recurrence vs. transience for spatially inhomogeneous birth and death in a random environment

Summary We consider birth and death in a random environment, having probabilitiesp(,x) andq(,x) of a step to the right or left, respectively, from statex in environment. Under several sets of conditions involving the existence of limp(,x) and limq(,x) asx, we give conditions for certain extinction or escape to when 0 is absorbing, corresponding to recurrence or transience when 0 is reflecting. The environmental sequence is assumed to be stationary ergodic, and for some results stronger assumptions are required.     

On dense sequences of polynomials in several variables

In the present paper a form of generalization of Gelfond's lemma on dense sequences of polynomials is proposed. For a set of complex numbers ₁, ..., _s we define the coefficients_gk( ₁, ..., _s ) (0ks) and give the relations between them and the transcendental degrees or the transcendence types of the field © ( ₁, ..., _s ) or its subfields.This work was completed at the Dept. of Math., Univ. of Southern Mississippi, USA in 1987.     

Solution of the nonlinear functional equations representing the roll gap relationships in a cold mill

In the development of a roll force model for cold rolling, techniques were developed for solving the system equations which are of general interest. This paper gives a brief introduction to the physical model but concentrates on the solution of the model equations and the simulation. An unusual feature of the model was that the calculated profiles had to satisfy a number of boundary conditions at different points throughout the roll arc. A new method was developed for calculating these profiles and for determining the gradient functions which satisfied the boundary constraints.Nomenclature p() pressure at roll angle - h() gauge - a() roll radius - y() yield stress - g _i () gradient function on iterationi - e() gauge error - (, ) transition function - H(–) Heaviside unit step function at = - (–) unit impulse function at = - H(, ₁, ₂) defined asH( – ₁) –H( – ₂) - angular position from the roll center line - _T angular limits of roll arc represented - _n angular position of the neutral angle - _i angular position ofith strip elastic-plastic boundary - _pi pressure change at the boundaryi - _i , _i , _i constants defined in Appendix A - k ₁,k ₂ elastic region constants - k total number of strip boundaries (elastic-plastic and entry and exit points) - R undeformed work roll radius - R _s roll separation—distance between roll centers - h ₀₁ unstrained gauge in an elastic region - h _in gauge of the strip at the entry to the roll gap - J gauge error cost function - <x, y> inner product ofx andy - x norm ofx - L ₂[0, _T ] the space of Lebesgue square-integrable functions defined on the interval [0, _T ] - JUVY denotes (Dx)() =dx()/d The author would like to acknowledge the help given by Dr. G. F. Bryant, Director, and Mr. M. A. Fuller, Senior Research Engineer, the Industrial Automation Group, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London. He is also grateful to M. J. G. Henderson of the University of Birmingham for his advice and encouragement during the project. He would like to thank the Directors of GEC Electrical Projects Limited for allowing him to undertake the work and also Mr. J. McTaggart and Mr. C. McKenzie (GEC), Professor H. A. Prime of the University of Birmingham, and Dr. G. F. Bryant for arranging the project.     

Asymptotically minimax tests of composite hypotheses

Summary X ₁,,X> _n are independent, identically distributed random variables with common density function f(x¦ ₁ ,, _k , _k+1 ), assumed to satisfy certain standard regularity conditions. The k+1 parameters are unknown, and the problem is to test the hypothesis that _k+1 =b against the alternative that _k+1 =b+cn ^–1/2 . ₁ ,, _k are nuisance parameters. For this problem, the following artificial problem is temporarily substituted. It is known that ¦ ₁ -a _i ¦n ^–1/2 M(n) for i=1,,k, where a ₁ , ,a _k are known, and M(n) approaches infinity as n increases but n ^–1/2 M(n) approaches zero as n increases. A Bayes decision rule is constructed for this artificial problem, relative to the a priori distribution which assigns weight A to _k+1 =b, and weight 1-A to _k+1 =b+cn ^–1/2 , in each case the weight being spread uniformly over the possible values of ₁ ,, _k in the artificial problem. An analysis of the structure of the Bayes rule shows that if estimates of ₁ ,..., _k are substituted for a ₁ ..., a _k respectively, the resulting rule is a solution to the original problem, and this rule has the same asymptotic properties as a solution to the artificial problem as the Bayes rule for the artificial problem, no matter what the values a ₁ ..., a _k are.Research supported by the U.S. Air Force under Grant AF-AFOSR-68-1472.     

Admissibility of unbiased tests for a composite hypothesis with a restricted alternative

This paper discusses -admissiblility and d-admissiblity which are important concepts in studying the performance of statistical tests for composite hypotheses. A sufficient condition for -admissibility is presented. When =1/m, the Nomakuchi-Sakata test, which is uniformly more powerful than the likelihood ratio test for hypotheses min (₁, ₁) = 0 versus min (₁, ₁) > 0, is generalized for a class of distributions in an exponential family, and its unbiasedness and -admissibility are shown. Finally, the case of 1/m is discussed in brief.     

On a monotone empirical bayes test procedure in geometric model

A monotone empirical Bayes procedure is proposed for testing H ₀: ₀ against H ₁: < ₀, where is the parameter of a geometric distribution. The asymptotic optimality of the test procedure is established and the associated convergence rate is shown to be of order O(exp(-cn)) for some positive constant c, where n is the number of accumulated past experience (observations) at hand.This research was supported in part by the NSF Grants DMS-8702620 and DMS-8717799 at Purdue University.     

Asymptotic properties of local densities of measures generated by semimartingales

For families of probability measures (P , )) generated by semimartingales, we consider the local density)(y, )= _t (y, )) _t0 of a, measureP _y with respect to the measureP whose logarithm is the difference of a local martingale and a positive predictable increasing locally bounded process. Conditions are obtained under which the relations and hold, wherey _t depends in some way ont, while _t ast . Applications of these relations are exhibited and an example is given when the hypotheses of the theorems proved can be verified.Translated fromTeoriya Sluchaínykh Protsessov, Vol. 14, pp. 48–55, 1986.     

Nonlinear instability of superposed magnetic fluids in the presence of an oblique magnetic field

The nonlinear evolution of interfacial waves separating two magnetic fluids subjected to an oblique magnetic field is studied in two dimensions, with the use of the method of multiple scales. It is shown that the evolution of the envelope is governed by two partial differential equations. These equations can be combined to yield two alternate Schrödinger equations with cubic nonlinearity; one of them leads to the determination of the cutoff wave number separating stable from unstable deformations while the other Schrödinger equation is used to analyze the stability of the system. The stability of the system is discussed both theoretically and computationally, and the stability diagrams are obtained. It is found in the linear theory that the oblique magnetic field has a stabilizing influence if 0 ₁ + ₂ < /2, or 3/2 < ₁ + ₂ 2 and a destabilizing influence if /2 < ₁ + ₂ < 3/2, where 0 _j , (j=1, 2) and , is the angle between the field and the horizontal axis.In the nonlinear theory, the stability analysis reveals that there exist different regions of stability and instability. It is reported that the oblique magnetic field plays a dual role in the stability criterion and the angles ₁ and ₂ play a distinctive role in this analysis besides the effect of the variation of the magnetic permeabilities.