非线性回归模型中的约束拟似然

在非线性回归模型中,拟得分函数是一类线性无偏估计函数中的最优者(GodambeandHeyde(1987),朱仲义(1996)),而由拟得分函数得到的拟似然估计在由线性无偏估计函数得到的估计类中具有渐近最优性(林路(1999)).本文则研究非线性回归模型中的有偏估计函数理论,构造了参数的约束拟似然估计,得到了约束拟似然的局部最优性,局部改进了拟似然估计,从而扩充了线性模型中的有偏估计理论.     

Empirical likelihood for median regression model with designed censoring variables

We propose a new and simple estimating equation for the parameters in median regression models with designed censoring variables, and then apply the empirical log likelihood ratio statistic to construct confidence region for the parameters. The empirical log likelihood ratio statistic is shown to have a standard chi-square distribution, which makes this method easy to implement. At the same time, another empirical log likelihood ratio statistic is proposed based on an existing estimating equation and the limiting distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio statistic is shown to be a sum of weighted chi-square distributions. We compare the performance of the empirical likelihood confidence region based on the new estimating equation, with that based on the existing estimating equation and a normal approximation method by simulation studies.     

非线性模型中的拟似然估计和约束拟似然估计

该文证明了,在非线性回归模型中,若以均方误差或均方误差矩阵为标准,拟似然估计是正则广义拟似然估计类中的最优估计,并讨论了拟得分函数最优性与拟似然估计最优性的关系.为改进拟似然估计,该文提出了一种约束拟似然估计,并证明了约束拟似然估计比拟似然估计有较小的均方误差.     

Empirical likelihood for right censored data with covariables

For complete observation and p-dimensional parameterθdefined by an estimation equation,empirical likelihood method of construction of confidence region is based on the asymptoticχ2pdistribution of-2 log(EL ratio).For right censored lifetime data with covariables,however,it is shown in literature that-2 log(EL ratio)converges weakly to a scaledχ2pdistribution,where the scale parameter is a function of unknown asymptotic covariance matrix.The construction of confidence region requires estimation of this scale parameter.In this paper,by using influence functions in the estimating equation,we show that-2 log(EL ratio)converges weakly to a standardχ2pdistribution and hence eliminates the procedure of estimating the scale parameter.     

SOME ASYMPTOTIC INFERENCE IN QUASI-LIKELIHOOD NONLINEAR MODELS:A GEOMETRIC APPROACH

§ 1　IntroductionIt is well known that quasi-likelihood models introduced by Wedderburn[1 ] greatlywiden the scope of generalized linear models by using a much weaker assumption in whichonly the firstand second moments ofresponse vector Yare needed to replace the full distri-butional assumption about Y in the models.It has drawn considerable attention in recentliterature(e.g.see[2～ 6] and so on) .However,little work has been done on the issuefrom a geometric viewpoint.The purpose of this p…     

NM-QELE for ARMA-GARCH models with non-Gaussian innovations

Although the quasi maximum likelihood estimator based on Gaussian density (Gaussian-QMLE) is widely used to estimate parameters in ARMA models with GARCH innovations (ARMA-GARCH models), it does not perform successfully when error distribution of ARMA-GARCH models is either skewed or leptokurtic. In order to circumvent such defects, Lee and Lee (submitted for publication) proposed the quasi maximum estimated-likelihood estimator using Gaussian mixture-based likelihood (NM-QELE) for GARCH models. In this paper, we adopt the NM-QELE method for estimating parameters in ARMA-GARCH models and demonstrate the validity of NM-QELE by verifying its consistency.     

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD APPROACH FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA WITH MISSING VALUES AND TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

Missing data and time-dependent covariates often arise simultaneously in longitudinal studies, and directly applying classical approaches may result in a loss of efficiency and biased estimates. To deal with this problem, we propose weighted corrected estimating equations under the missing at random mechanism, followed by developing a shrinkage empirical likelihood estimation approach for the parameters of interest when time-dependent covariates are present. Such procedure improves efficiency over generalized estimation equations approach with working independent assumption, via combining the independent estimating equations and the extracted additional information from the estimating equations that are excluded by the independence assumption. The contribution from the remaining estimating equations is weighted according to the likelihood of each equation being a consistent estimating equation and the information it carries. We show that the estimators are asymptotically normally distributed and the empirical likelihood ratio statistic and its profile counterpart follow central chi-square distributions asymptotically when evaluated at the true parameter. The practical performance of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations and data analysis.     

Empirical likelihood for mixed-effects error-in-variables model

This paper mainly introduces the method of empirical likelihood and its applications on two different models. We discuss the empirical likelihood inference on fixed-effect parameter in mixed-effects model with error-in-variables. We first consider a linear mixed-effects model with measurement errors in both fixed and random effects. We construct the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the fixed-effects parameters and the mean parameters of random-effects. The limiting distribution of the empirical log likelihood ratio at the true parameter is X2p＋q, where p, q are dimension of fixed and random effects respectively. Then we discuss empirical likelihood inference in a semi-linear error-in-variable mixed-effects model. Under certain conditions, it is shown that the empirical log likelihood ratio at the true parameter also converges to X2p＋q. Simulations illustrate that the proposed confidence region has a coverage probability more closer to the nominal level than normal approximation based confidence region.     

两个未知均值方差混合模型有限制下对数极大似然比的极限分布

本文讨论了检验样本是来自一个正态总体还是两个未知均值和方差的正态的混合分布,采用对数极大似然比的检验,如果不加限制,Ｈａｒｔｉｎｇａｎｍ曾指出不是寻找的、Ｘ＾２分布,我们在混合的中了一点后得到了其极限分布产工给出了分位点数值表。     

基于经验似然的部分线性模型的统计诊断

经验似然方法己经被广泛应用于许多模型的统计推断.本文基于经验似然对部分线性模型进行统计诊断.首先给出模型的估计方程,进而得到模型参数的极大经验似然估计;其次,基于经验似然研究了三种不同的影响曲率;最后通过随机模拟和实例分析,说明了统计诊断方法的有效性.     

Penalized Covariance Matrix Estimation Using a Matrix-Logarithm Transformation

For statistical inferences that involve covariance matrices, it is desirable to obtain an accurate covariance matrix estimate with a well-structured eigen-system. We propose to estimate the covariance matrix through its matrix logarithm based on an approximate log-likelihood function. We develop a generalization of the Leonard and Hsu log-likelihood approximation that no longer requires a nonsingular sample covariance matrix. The matrix log-transformation provides the ability to impose a convex penalty on the transformed likelihood such that the largest and smallest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix estimate can be regularized simultaneously. The proposed method transforms the problem of estimating the covariance matrix into the problem of estimating a symmetric matrix, which can be solved efficiently by an iterative quadratic programming algorithm. The merits of the proposed method are illustrated by a simulation study and two real applications in classification and portfolio optimization. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Empirical Euclidean likelihood for general estimating equations under association dependence

Empirical Euclidean likelihood for general estimating equations for association dependent processes is investigated. The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the blockwise maximum empirical Euclidean likelihood estimator are presented. We show that it is more efficient than estimator without blocking. The blockwise empirical Euclidean log-likelihood ratio asymptotically follows a chi-square distribution.     

泊松回归模型中协变量含误差的经验似然推断

在模型的协变量含有测量误差的情况下,考虑一类泊松回归模型的统计推断问题.通过巧妙地构造辅助随机向量,提出一个工具变量类型的经验似然统计推断方法.证明构造的经验对数似然比函数渐近服从标准卡方分布,进而给出了回归系数的置信区间.所提出的估计方法可以有效地消除测量误差对估计精度的影响,并且具有较好的有限样本性质.     

Empirical likelihood based goodness-of-fit testing for generalized linear mixed models

In this paper, we propose a bias-corrected empirical likelihood （BCEL） ratio to construct a goodness- of-fit test for generalized linear mixed models. BCEL test maintains the advantage of empirical likelihood that is self scale invariant and then does not involve estimating limiting variance of the test statistic to avoid deteri- orating power of test. Furthermore, the bias correction makes the limit to be a process in which every variable is standard chi-squared. This simple structure of the process enables us to construct a Monte Carlo test proce- dure to approximate the null distribution. Thus, it overcomes a problem we encounter when classical empirical likelihood test is used, as it is asymptotically a functional of Gaussian process plus a normal shift function. The complicated covariance function makes it difficult to employ any approximation for the null distribution. The test is omnibus and power study shows that the test can detect local alternatives approaching the null at parametric rate. Simulations are carried out for illustration and for a comparison with existing method.     

Penalized empirical likelihood estimation of semiparametric models

We propose an empirical likelihood-based estimation method for conditional estimating equations containing unknown functions, which can be applied for various semiparametric models. The proposed method is based on the methods of conditional empirical likelihood and penalization. Thus, our estimator is called the penalized empirical likelihood (PEL) estimator. For the whole parameter including infinite-dimensional unknown functions, we derive the consistency and a convergence rate of the PEL estimator. Furthermore, for the finite-dimensional parametric component, we show the asymptotic normality and efficiency of the PEL estimator. We illustrate the theory by three examples. Simulation results show reasonable finite sample properties of our estimator.     

Some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the MEM(1,1)

In this paper, we extend the closed form moment estimator (ordinary MCFE) for the autoregressive conditional duration model given by Lu et al (2016) and propose some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the multiplicative error model to deal with the additive and innovational outliers. The robustification of the closed form estimator is done by replacing the sample mean and sample autocorrelation with some robust estimators. These estimators are more robust than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) often used to estimate this model, and they are easy to implement and do not require the use of any numerical optimization procedure and the choice of initial value. The performance of our proposal in estimating the parameters and forecasting conditional mean μ_t of the MEM(1,1) process is compared with the proposals existing in the literature via Monte Carlo experiments, and the results of these experiments show that our proposal outperforms the ordinary MCFE, QMLE, and least absolute deviation estimator in the presence of outliers in general. Finally, we fit the price durations of IBM stock with the robust closed form estimators and the benchmarks and analyze their performances in estimating model parameters and forecasting the irregularly spaced intraday Value at Risk.     

Empirical Likelihood for a Class of Functionals of Survival Distribution with Censored Data

The empirical likelihood was introduced by Owen, although its idea originated from survival analysis in the context of estimating the survival probabilities given by Thomas and Grunkemeier. In this paper, we investigate how to apply the empirical likelihood method to a class of functionals of survival function in the presence of censoring. We define an adjusted empirical likelihood and show that it follows a chi-square distribution. Some simulation studies are presented to compare the empirical likelihood method with the Studentized-t method. These results indicate that the empirical likelihood method works better than or equally to the Studentized-t method, depending on the situations.     

Optimizing information using the EM algorithm in item response theory

Latent trait models such as item response theory (IRT) hypothesize a functional relationship between an unobservable, or latent, variable and an observable outcome variable. In educational measurement, a discrete item response is usually the observable outcome variable, and the latent variable is associated with an examinee’s trait level (e.g., skill, proficiency). The link between the two variables is called an item response function. This function, defined by a set of item parameters, models the probability of observing a given item response, conditional on a specific trait level. Typically in a measurement setting, neither the item parameters nor the trait levels are known, and so must be estimated from the pattern of observed item responses. Although a maximum likelihood approach can be taken in estimating these parameters, it usually cannot be employed directly. Instead, a method of marginal maximum likelihood (MML) is utilized, via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Alternating between an expectation (E) step and a maximization (M) step, the EM algorithm assures that the marginal log likelihood function will not decrease after each EM cycle, and will converge to a local maximum. Interestingly, the negative of this marginal log likelihood function is equal to the relative entropy, or Kullback-Leibler divergence, between the conditional distribution of the latent variables given the observable variables and the joint likelihood of the latent and observable variables. With an unconstrained optimization for the M-step proposed here, the EM algorithm as minimization of Kullback-Leibler divergence admits the convergence results due to Csiszár and Tusnády (Statistics & Decisions, 1:205–237, 1984), a consequence of the binomial likelihood common to latent trait models with dichotomous response variables. For this unconstrained optimization, the EM algorithm converges to a global maximum of the marginal log likelihood function, yielding an information bound that permits a fixed point of reference against which models may be tested. A likelihood ratio test between marginal log likelihood functions obtained through constrained and unconstrained M-steps is provided as a means for testing models against this bound. Empirical examples demonstrate the approach.     

缺失数据下广义变系数模型的均值借补估计

本文在响应变量随机缺失时,给出广义变系数模型中响应变量的2个均值拟似然借补估计。证明了它们具有渐近正态性,并进行了模拟研究。     

Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes

We discuss a maximum likelihood procedure for estimating parameters in possibly noncausal autoregressive processes driven by i.i.d. non-Gaussian noise. Under appropriate conditions, estimates of the parameters that are solutions to the likelihood equations exist and are asymptotically normal. The estimation procedure is illustrated with a simulation study for AR(2) processes.