Bayesian solution to pricing and inventory control under unknown demand distribution

This paper addresses the simultaneous determination of pricing and inventory control with learning. The Bayesian formulation of this model results in a dynamic program with a multi-dimension state-space. We show that the state-space of the Bayesian model can be reduced under some conditions and characterize the structure of the optimal policy.     

Joint pricing and inventory control with a Markovian demand model

We consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review. The demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous Markov chain. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. The surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent. We show the existence of an optimal (s, S, p)-type feedback policy for the additive demand model. We extend the model to the case of emergency orders. We compute the optimal policy for a class of Markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples. The results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a Markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability.     

Coordinating inventory control and pricing strategies: The continuous review model

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, continuous review model in which pricing and inventory decisions are made simultaneously and ordering cost includes a fixed cost. We show that there exists a stationary (s,S) inventory policy maximizing the expected discounted or expected average profit under general conditions.     

Combined pricing and inventory control with multiple unreliable suppliers

We study a general finite horizon, periodic review combined inventory and pricing model with N suppliers and T periods, where both the demands and the supply mechanisms are random. The random supply mechanisms are of a general type that includes most structures encountered in practice. Demands are price dependent according to general, stochastic demand functions. We characterize the optimal combined pricing and ordering policies to all N suppliers. The general results pertain to general independent supply mechanisms. Under random capacities—one of the special random supply mechanisms—they also extend to suppliers that are positively dependent on each other.     

Optimal pricing and production in an inventory model

This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously determining the optimal price policy and production rate over a given planning horizon. For nonlinear demand functions and convex inventory and shortage cost functions the optimal solution paths are derived by using optimal control theory. The treatment of linear nonsmooth cost functions requires the use of a generalized maximum principle. The solution method is a phase portrait analysis providing insight into the optimal pricing and production policies as well as the resulting inventory paths. Moreover, it is shown that in the case of nonsmooth piecewise linear cost functions the equilibrium is approached within finite time although the model is nonlinear in the control variables. Finally it is illustrated that exogenous fluctuations in the demand rate (seasonal demand pattern) amount to cyclical optimal solutions.     

Aggregation and disaggregation in Markov decision models for inventory control

In this paper the possibility is investigated of using aggregation in the action space for some Markov decision processes of inventory control type. For the standard (s, S) inventory control model the policy improvement procedure can be executed in a very efficient way, therefore, aggregation in the action space is not of much use. However, in situations where the decisions have some aftereffect and, hence, the old decision has to be incorporated in the state, it might be rewarding to aggregate actions. Some variants for aggregation and disaggregation are formulated and analyzed. Numerical evidence is presented.     

Periodic pricing and replenishment policy for continuously decaying inventory with multivariate demand

This paper deals with the joint decisions on pricing and replenishment schedule for a periodic review inventory system in which a replenishment order may be placed at the beginning of some or all of the periods. We consider a single product which is subject to continuous decay and a demand which is a function of price and time, without backlogging over a finite planning horizon. The proposed scheme may adjust periodically the selling price upward or downward that makes the pricing policy more responsive to structure changes in supply or demand. The problem is formulated as a dynamic programming model and solved by numerical search techniques. An extensive numerical study is conducted to attend qualitative insights into the structures of the proposed policy and its sensitivity with respect to major parameters. The numerical result shows that the solution generated by the periodic policy outperforms that by the fixed pricing policy in maximizing discount profit.     

Two storage inventory model in a mixed environment

Multi-item inventory models with two storage facility and bulk release pattern are developed with linearly time dependent demand in a finite time horizon under crisp, stochastic and fuzzy-stochastic environments. Here different inventory parameters—holding costs, ordering costs, purchase costs, etc.—are assumed as probabilistic or fuzzy in nature. In particular cases stochastic and crisp models are derived. Models are formulated as profit maximization principle and three different approaches are proposed for solution. In the first approach, fuzzy extension principle is used to find membership function of the objective function and then it’s Graded Mean Integration Value (GMIV) for different optimistic levels are taken as equivalent stochastic objectives. Then the stochastic model is transformed to a constraint multi-objective programming problem using Stochastic Non-linear Programming (SNLP) technique. The multi-objective problems are transferred to single objective problems using Interactive Fuzzy Satisfising (IFS) technique. Finally, a Region Reducing Genetic Algorithm (RRGA) based on entropy has been developed and implemented to solve the single objective problems. In the second approach, the above GMIV (which is stochastic in nature) is optimized with some degree of probability and using SNLP technique model is transferred to an equivalent single objective crisp problem and solved using RRGA. In the third approach, objective function is optimized with some degree of possibility/necessity and following this approach model is transformed to an equivalent constrained stochastic programming problem. Then it is transformed to an equivalent single objective crisp problem using SNLP technique and solved via RRGA. The models are illustrated with some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses have been presented.     

Dynamic inventory system with pricing adjustment for price-comparison shoppers

With numerous price-comparison websites and applications, consumers today are frequently conducting price-comparison shopping. As a result, retailers face an increasing challenge in predicting consumer demand and determining the optimal product price and inventory level accordingly. To address this issue, this paper proposes an inventory model with joint decisions of price and inventory to optimize the retailer's long-run average profit under price-comparison consumer shopping. We first formulate the demand arrival process for a retailer under price-comparison shopping to be affected by not only its own price but also its competitors'. Based on this demand arrival process, we then formulate the retailer's long-run average profit and derive properties of its optimal solution. Our model focuses on capturing the impact of price-comparison consumers on a retailer's optimal price and inventory decisions. In particular, we allow competitors' prices to affect the retailer's demand via two key factors: the manufacturer's suggested price and the variability of the outside lowest price. According to our results, when the suggested price increases, the retailer should lower its price to obtain more price-comparison customers from competitors, whereas when the variability of outside lowest price increases, the retailer should raise its price to increase per unit profit from nonprice-comparison customers.     

Optimal dynamic pricing and inventory control with stock deterioration and partial backordering

This paper studies the optimal dynamic pricing and inventory control policies in a periodic-review inventory system with fixed ordering cost and additive demand. The inventory may deteriorate over time and the unmet demand may be partially backlogged. We identify two sufficient conditions under which (s,S,p) policies are optimal.     

Mean,variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review

This paper is a survey of papers which make use of nonstandard Markov decision process criteria (i.e., those which do not seek simply to optimize expected returns per unit time or expected discounted return). It covers infinite-horizon nondiscounted formulations, infinite-horizon discounted formulations, and finite-horizon formulations. For problem formulations in terms solely of the probabilities of being in each state and taking each action, policy equivalence results are given which allow policies to be restricted to the class of Markov policies or to the randomizations of deterministic Markov policies. For problems which cannot be stated in such terms, in terms of the primitive state setI, formulations involving a redefinition of the states are examined.The author would like to thank two referees for a very thorough and helpful referceing of the original article and for the extra references (Refs. 47–52) now added to the original reference list.     

Turnpike properties for a class of piecewise deterministic systems arising in manufacturing flow control

This paper deals with a general class of piecewise deterministic control systems that encompasses FMS flow control models. One uses the Markov renewal decision process formalism to characterize optimal policies via a discrete event dynamic programming approach. A family of control problems with a random stopping time is associated with these optimality conditions. These problems can be reformulated as infinite horizon deterministic control problems. It is then shown how the so-calledturnpike property should hold for these deterministic control problems under classical convexity assumptions. These turnpikes have the same generic properties as the attractors obtained via a problem specific approach in FMS flow control models and production planning and are calledhedging points in this literature.This research has been supported by NSERC-Canada, Grants No. A4952 by FCAR-Québec, Grant No. 88EQ3528, Actions Structurantes, MESS-Québec, Grant No. 6.1/7.4(28), and FNRS-Switzerland.     

波动率服从有限的马尔可夫过程的期权定价

通过对服从有限马儿可夫过程的标的资产价格波动率进行分析,得出了在未来时刻波动的预测模型,并给出了相应的期权定价方法。     

Asset Pricing Using Finite State Markov Chain Stochastic Discount Functions

This article fuses two pieces of theory to make a tractable model for asset pricing. The first is the theory of asset pricing using a stochastic discounting function (SDF). This will be reviewed. The second is to model uncertainty in an economy using a Markov chain. Using the semi-martingale dynamics for the chain these models can be calibrated and asset valuations derived. Interest rate models, stock price models, futures pricing, exchange rates can all be introduced endogenously in this framework.     

Transportation pricing of a truckload carrier

Freight transportation is a major component of logistical operations. Due to the increase in global trade, fierce competition among shippers and raising concerns about energy, companies are putting more emphasis on effective management and usage of transportation services. This paper studies the transportation pricing problem of a truckload carrier in a setting that consists of a retailer, a truckload carrier and a less than truckload carrier. In this setting, the truckload carrier makes his/her pricing decision based on previous knowledge on the less than truckload carrier’s price schedule and the retailer’s ordering behavior. The retailer then makes a determination of his/her order quantity through an integrated model that explicitly considers the transportation alternatives, and the related costs (i.e., bimodal transportation costs) and capacities. In the paper, the retailer’s replenishment problem and the truckload carrier’s pricing problem are modeled and solved based on a detailed analysis. Numerical evidence shows that the truckload carrier may increase his/her gainings significantly through better pricing and there is further opportunity of savings if the truckload carrier and the retailer coordinate their decisions.     

Inventory Models with Markovian Demands and Cost Functions of Polynomial Growth

This paper studies stochastic inventory problems with unbounded Markovian demands, ordering costs that are lower semicontinuous, and inventory/backlog (or surplus) costs that are lower semicontinuous with polynomial growth. Finite-horizon problems, stationary and nonstationary discounted-cost infinite-horizon problems, and stationary long-run average-cost problems are addressed. Existence of optimal Markov or feedback policies is established. Furthermore, optimality of (s, S)-type policies is proved when, in addition, the ordering cost consists of fixed and proportional cost components and the surplus cost is convex.     

Robust multi-echelon multi-period inventory control

We consider the problem of minimizing the overall cost of a supply chain, over a possible long horizon, under demand uncertainly which is known only crudely. Under such circumstances, the method of choice is Robust Optimization, in particular the Affinely Adjustable Robust Counterpart (AARC) method which leads to tractable deterministic optimization problems. The latter is due to a recent re-parametrization technique for discrete time linear control systems. In this paper we model, analyze and test an extension of the AARC method known as the Globalized Robust Counterpart (GRC) in order to control inventories in serial supply chains. A simulation study demonstrates the merit of the methods employed here, in particular, it shows that a good control law that minimizes cost achieves simultaneously good control of the bullwhip effect.     

Integrated inventory and inspection policies for stochastic demand

In this paper, we develop integrated inventory inspection models with and without replacement of nonconforming items. Inspection policies include no inspection, sampling inspection, and 100% inspection. We consider a buyer who places an order from a supplier when his inventory level drops to a certain point, due to demand which is stochastic in nature. When a lot is received, the buyer uses some type of inspection policy. The fraction nonconforming is assumed to be a random variable following a beta distribution. The order quantity, reorder point and the inspection policy are decision variables. In the inspection policy involving determining sampling plan parameters, constraints on the buyer and manufacturer risks is set in order to obtain a fair plan for both parties. A solution procedure for determining the operating policies for inventory and inspection consisting of order quantity, sample size, and acceptance number is proposed. Numerical examples are presented to conduct a sensitivity analysis for important model parameters and to illustrate important issues about the developed models.     

On the computation of the optimal cost function for discrete time Markov models with partial observations

We consider several applications of two state, finite action, infinite horizon, discrete-time Markov decision processes with partial observations, for two special cases of observation quality, and show that in each of these cases the optimal cost function is piecewise linear. This in turn allows us to obtain either explicit formulas or simplified algorithms to compute the optimal cost function and the associated optimal control policy. Several examples are presented.Research supported in part by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Grant AFOSR-86-0029, in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant ECS-8617860, in part by the Advanced Technology Program of the State of Texas, and in part by the DoD Joint Services Electronics Program through the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFSC) Contract F49620-86-C-0045.