Data analysis and decision support

In this paper, we consider developmental lines of computer-assisted decision support (with consideration of knowledge-based approaches) for data analysis problems. First, we discuss some situations where it is obviously appropriate to apply computer-assisted decision support in connection with data analysis tasks. Then, a brief historical retrospect is given viewing the development of this area of research and its interfaces to knowledge-based approaches. Against this background we illustrate two prototypes of knowledge-based decision support systems for specific data-analysis problems related to fields of interest of our own. Finally, we indicate possible progress and future activities in this area.     

MOIRA: A decision support system for decision making on aquatic ecosystems contaminated by radioactive fallout

Interventions to restore radionuclide contaminated aquatic ecosystems may reduce individual and collective radiation doses, but may also result in detrimental ecological, social and economic effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate possible impacts before choosing a countermeasure, hence decision analysis methods constitute an important aid to rank intervention strategies after the contamination of an aquatic ecosystem. We describe MOIRA, a decision support system for the identification of optimal remedial strategies to restore water systems after accidental introduction of radioactive substances. MOIRA includes an evaluation module based on a multi-attribute value model to rank alternatives and a module to perform multiparametric sensitivity analyses, both with respect to weights and values, to allow us to gain insights into the problem. The problem is under certainty since the validation of models used to quantify countermeasure impacts suggests little uncertainty in policy effects.The system is implemented in a PC based decision support system which allows the inclusion of all relevant information.     

A fuzzy multiobjective programming algorithm in decision support systems

Multicriteria analysis is one of the analytical functions in the problem processing system of decision support systems (DSS). In this paper, an interactive and iterative fuzzy programming method for solving a quasi-optimization problem in complex decisions under constraints involving a multiple objective function is proposed. Comparing with an adapted gradient search method, a surrogate worth tradeoff method, and a Zionts—Wallenius method, an approximate preference structure is emphasized in the proposed method.     

The design of a database for multiperson decision support

The MEDIATOR approach to implementing negotiation support systems views collaborative decisions as complex, evolving data objects to be managed by an extended database management system. The paper outlines the requirements and a rough design for such a DBMS. Specifically, our approach represents decision problems as multispatial mappings that eventually lead from real-world observations to group utilities. Group decision processes are represented as nested transactions which collaboratively design this mapping data structure, controlled by group communication norms represented as integrity constraints. The paper concludes with some implementation considerations, using a conceptual model base management approach.     

Comparing proposals for the solution of data analysis problems in a knowledge-based system

In a knowledge-based system, which aims at supporting persons who are interested in the analysis of special data, the problem can arise that a whole set of proposals is generated in answer to a question of a user. Such proposals are based on appropriate interconnections between user wishes, available original data as well as derived data obtained by application of adequate methods, the methods mentioned, and data analysis objectives. We use graphical visualizations of proposals to outline how the system would cope with the underlying situation.In this paper, special attention is paid to the concept of knowledge-based comparisons of proposals when propagation of certainty factors is used for a-priori judgments of proposals generated (before suggested proposals are performed). After-wards, a-posteriori judgments of proposals considered (after solutions have been computed by application of selected proposals) can be based on goodness of fit criteria derived from chosen outputs.     

Deriving weights in multiple-criteria decision making with support vector machines

A key problem in Multiple-Criteria Decision Making is how to measure the importance of the different criteria when just a partial preference relation among actions is given. In this note we address the problem of constructing a linear score function (and thus how to associate weights of importance to the criteria) when a binary relation comparing actions and partial information (relative importance) on the criteria are given. It is shown that these tasks can be done viaSupport Vector Machines, an increasingly popular Data Mining technique, which reduces the search of the weights to the resolution of (a series of) nonlinear convex optimization problems with linear constraints. An interactive method is then presented and illustrated by solving a multiple-objective 0–1 knapsack problem. Extensions to the case in which data are imprecise (given by intervals) or intransitivities in strict preferences exist are outlined.     

Natural discrete-event process forecasting: A decision support system

A decision support system for the analysis and forecasting of natural discrete-event processes is considered. The corresponding method is based on the sample path analysis using event-to-event operations. An application of the method in the computer-aided decision support system for the long-range weather forecasting is mentioned.     

Multicriteria approach for intelligent decision support in supervisory control

In the framework of integrated automation, this work concerns the top level of the management and supervision of complex automated systems. When a process is being disturbed, the supervisory function modifies the established production planning, in accordance with different norms and constraints. The operator remains beside the regulated process controls to perform manual operations. The number of potential actions and the conflicting nature of some objectives make his task complex: he must reach quantitative and qualitative objectives with imperfect and temporal information. To assist him, we study a decision support model following a multicriteria approach involving the supervision problem. AI techniques and DSS are used to develop the aid tool. The Spinning Reserve problem encountered by Electricité de France is studied and used as support. To test our concepts, we develop the CASTART experimental support based on a synergy between the user, the problem, and the resolution models.This study is co-financed by the Conseil Régional Nord-Pas de Calais (France) and the University of Valenciennes.     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

An approach for predicting and describing patient outcome using multicriteria decision analysis and decision rules

Patient outcome in brain trauma patients is affected by a multiplicity of factors, beginning with ambulatory transportation and routing, to the grade of the receiving facility and treatment therein, and finally the treatment and monitoring in definitive care (the brain trauma intensive care unit). Factors and events in each of these phases can be modeled as a multicriteria problem, where the objective is to optimize patient outcome; moreover, a more comprehensive model can embody the interactions of all three phases. This study focuses on modeling the factors that affect patient outcome in definitive care and on expressing these in machine readable format so that we can better describe or predict patient outcome using data mining tools. We use multicriteria decision analysis and decision rules for knowledge representation. Preliminary results suggest that the incorporation of a priori knowledge does help better predict or describe patient outcome when using decision tree induction.     

A framework for participatory decision support using Pareto frontier visualization,goal identification and arbitration

There is a growing interest in promoting participation of lay stakeholders in public decision-making processes, possibly with the aid of Internet-based systems. This implies supporting non-sophisticated users and, consequently, developing user-friendly, yet rigorous, participatory decision support methods. We outline a framework to develop such methods based on interactive Pareto frontier visualization combined with expression of preferences in terms of feasible goals and using feasible goal-based arbitration.     

Multiple-attribute decision support system based on fuzzy logic for performance assessment

This paper deals with the problem of assessing the performance of a set of production units, simultaneously considering different kinds of information, yielded by a Data Envelopment Analysis, a qualitative data analysis and an expert assessment. The tool for integrating heterogeneous data is a model that applies fuzzy logic to decision support systems. The results obtained are a holistic performance assessment of each unit of the set and a ranking order of the units.     

A new data envelopment analysis method for priority determination and group decision making in the analytic hierarchy process

The DEAHP method for weight deviation and aggregation in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been found flawed and sometimes produces counterintuitive priority vectors for inconsistent pairwise comparison matrices, which makes its application very restrictive. This paper proposes a new data envelopment analysis (DEA) method for priority determination in the AHP and extends it to the group AHP situation. In this new DEA methodology, two specially constructed DEA models that differ from the DEAHP model are used to derive the best local priorities from a pairwise comparison matrix or a group of pairwise comparison matrices no matter whether they are perfectly consistent or inconsistent. The new DEA method produces true weights for perfectly consistent pairwise comparison matrices and the best local priorities that are logical and consistent with decision makers (DMs)’ subjective judgments for inconsistent pairwise comparison matrices. In hierarchical structures, the new DEA method utilizes the simple additive weighting (SAW) method for aggregation of the best local priorities without the need of normalization. Numerical examples are examined throughout the paper to show the advantages of the new DEA methodology and its potential applications in both the AHP and group decision making.     

An intelligent-agent-based fuzzy group decision making model for financial multicriteria decision support: The case of credit scoring

Credit risk analysis is an active research area in financial risk management and credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation. In this study, a novel intelligent-agent-based fuzzy group decision making (GDM) model is proposed as an effective multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool for credit risk evaluation. In this proposed model, some artificial intelligent techniques, which are used as intelligent agents, are first used to analyze and evaluate the risk levels of credit applicants over a set of pre-defined criteria. Then these evaluation results, generated by different intelligent agents, are fuzzified into some fuzzy opinions on credit risk level of applicants. Finally, these fuzzification opinions are aggregated into a group consensus and meantime the fuzzy aggregated consensus is defuzzified into a crisp aggregated value to support final decision for decision-makers of credit-granting institutions. For illustration and verification purposes, a simple numerical example and three real-world credit application approval datasets are presented.     

User-model interaction in decision support systems for risk management

This paper describes and evaluates three different approaches to building decision support systems: the Operations Research/Management Science approach, the Decision Analysis/Multiattribute Utility approach, and the Artificial Intelligence/Expert Systems approach. It evaluates the usefulness of the three approaches for risk management. In particular, it defines evaluation objectives of risk analysts, risk managers, and laypeople and provides a subjective assessment how the three approaches stack up against their objectives. The paper concludes that for most risk management applications a combination of the three approaches would be most desirable.This paper was written under contract No. 2709-85-05 ED ISP D of the European Atomic Energy Community, Commission of the European Communities, Joint Research Centre, Ispra Establishment, Ispra, Italy to the Gemeinschaft für Entscheidungs- und Risikoanalyse, Berlin, West Germany. It was prepared for presentation at the Conference on Operations Research and Multiattribute Decision Analysis held in Passau, April 20–26, 1986. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the author.     

Reformulation of the support set selection problem in the logical analysis of data

The paper is concerned with the problem of binary classification of data records, given an already classified training set of records. Among the various approaches to the problem, the methodology of the logical analysis of data (LAD) is considered. Such approach is based on discrete mathematics, with special emphasis on Boolean functions. With respect to the standard LAD procedure, enhancements based on probability considerations are presented. In particular, the problem of the selection of the optimal support set is formulated as a weighted set covering problem. Testable statistical hypothesis are used. Accuracy of the modified LAD procedure is compared to that of the standard LAD procedure on datasets of the UCI repository. Encouraging results are obtained and discussed.     

An integrative evaluation framework for intelligent decision support systems

Evaluation of the overall effectiveness of decision support systems (DSS) has been a research topic since the early 1980s. As artificial intelligence methods have been incorporated into systems to create intelligent decision support systems (IDSS), researchers have attempted to quantify the value of the additional capabilities. Despite the useful and relevant insights generated by previous research, existing evaluation methodologies offer only a fragmented and incomplete view of IDSS value and the contribution of its technical infrastructure. This paper proposes an integrative, multiple criteria IDSS evaluation framework through a model that links the decision value of an IDSS to both the outcome from, and process of, decision making and down to specific components of the IDSS. The proposed methodology provides the designer and developer specific guidance on the intelligent tools most useful for a specific user with a particular decision problem. The proposed framework is illustrated by evaluating an actual IDSS that coordinates management of urban infrastructures.     

Organizational decision support systems: Centralized support for decentralized organizations

Organizations are becoming increasingly decentralized in their operations and decision making. Advanced information technologies provide the glue that holds such organizations together and facilitates their operations. Organizational decision support systems (ODSSs) provide mechanisms for ensuring that the decisions being made throughout such organizations are consistent with each other and with the overall organization goals. Through means of an ODSS, information and guidance is automatically passed from higher levels to lower levels for use in decision-making models.     

Integrated decision support for aviation safety inspectors

This paper presents a systems viewpoint for developing an advanced decision support system for aircraft safety inspectors. Research results from a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsored project to use neural network and expert systems technology to analyze aircraft maintenance databases are summarized. One of the main objectives of this research is to define more refined “alert” indicators for national comparison purposes that can signal potential problem areas by aircraft type for safety inspector consideration.

Integration aspects are addressed on two levels: (1) integration of the various technical components of the decision support system, and (2) integration of the decision support system with individual behavior, management systems and organizational structure, as well as corporate culture across both formal and informal dimensions. The paper summarizes the creation of strategic “inspection profiles” for aging aircraft and reliability curve fitting for structural components both based upon using neural network technology. Also, the potential use of a model-based expert system to facilitate field inspection diagnostics is presented. Finally, a framework for developing an intelligent decision system to support aircraft safety inspections is proposed that links expert systems, neural networks, as well as a paradigm of the decision making process typically used in unstructured situations.     

Cumulative curves for exploration of demographic data: a case study of Northwest England

Summary  The paper introduces the idea of generalising a cumulative frequency curve to show arbitrary cumulative counts. For example, in demographic studies generalised cumulative curves can represent the distribution of population or area. Generalised cumulative curves can be a valuable instrument for exploratory data analysis. The use of cumulative curves in an investigation of population statistics in Northwest England allowed us to discover interesting facts about relationships between the distribution of national minorities and the degree of deprivation. We detected that, while high concentration of national minorities occurs, in general, in underprivileged districts, there are some differences related to the origin of the minorities. The paper sets the applicability conditions for generalised cumulative curves and compares them with other graphical tools for exploratory data analysis.