Dynamic modelling of life table data

In this paper we formulate a dynamic model expressing the human life table data by using the first-passage-time theory for a stochastic process. The model is derived analytically and then is applied to the mortality data in Belgium and France. A stochastic simulation is also performed for the ‘health state function’ proposed and the related stochastic paths. Furthermore the implications of the proposed model and the results derived for pension funds and option theory are discussed.     

Dynamic modelling and simulation of a hot strip finishing mill

Hot rolling is an essential industrial process in the production of sheet steel, a widely used product in manufacturing and construction. A finishing mill performs a set of operations in a hot strip rolling mill, and is a complex unit including many processes and control loops. Its modelling is a challenging task due to the variety of phenomena that occur within the mill, and variable transport delays. Model validation is also challenging due to a scarcity of measurements. On the other hand, a dynamic model that adequately reflects the numerous interactions between the mill units can be very useful for tasks such as high performance control design or vibration analysis. In this study, a one-dimensional model has been developed and validated against real plant data. The end use of the model is intended to be looper control analysis, but the model is kept sufficiently general so that it can be used or easily extended for other applications.     

Dynamic modelling and performance study of solar gas tunnel dryer

The work presented in this article focuses on the analysis and modelling of heat and mass transfers in the tunnel dryer during the drying of agricultural products. The main objective of this work is to establish a global modelling of the studied system based on the bond graph methodology. The pseudo-bond graph methodology was used in modelling the system. Such methodology was very suitable for this thermal process since it allows good management of the nonlinearity present in the system.

The thermal performance of the proposed dryer is analysed by solving the various energy balance equations. An application of drying tomatoes was achieved and a fair agreement was observed between predicted and experimental results.     

Mathematical modelling and dynamic simulation of multi-effect falling-film evaporator for milk powder production

Multiple-effect evaporators are widely used in dairies and food industries because they are appropriately suited for concentrating food solutions. Some mathematical models for multi-effect evaporators are reported in previous studies. But most of them are steady-state models, and there are no extensive studies on the dynamic behaviour of these evaporators. In this paper, two types of dynamic model, lumped and distributed, are developed for an industrial four-effect falling-film evaporator which is used to concentrate whole milk. These models are validated with data from an industrial unit. The results show that the distributed model has slightly better predictions than the lumped model, but the lumped model has comparable performance because its structure is simple and the needed simulation time is short in comparison with the distributed model.     

基于社会网络结构的创新扩散动力机制及其仿真研究

随着社会资本的大量涌入,创新扩散逐渐受到社会网络关系的影响。在分析了创新扩散机理的基础上,构建了基于不同拓扑结构的创新扩散演化动力模型。将信息获取、领导者创新能力及机会利益作为创新扩散的动力因子。通过利用复杂网络的演化博弈仿真分析,揭示了小世界、无标度等不同网络拓扑结构下,创新技术的扩散情况。仿真结果表明:在网络结构相同的情况下,信息获取对创新扩散的影响较大;在动力因子设定相同的情况下,网络主体连接越规则,创新扩散越充分。     

Mathematical modelling of the stochastic mechanical properties of wood and its extensibility at small scales

This paper investigates the relation between the uncertain mechanical properties of wood and its extensibility at the ultrastructural scale. A statistical approximation to the output of a multi-scale constitutive model is adopted to predict the extensibility of wood in the presence of parametric uncertainty. By means of this procedure, a very large number of computationally intensive fully-coupled multi-scale simulations are avoided. Following this approach, four different micromechanical parameters are chosen to assess their influence on the extensibility of the material under tensile loading conditions. These are the degree of cellulose crystallinity, the ultimate strain and Young’s modulus of the hemicellulose–lignin matrix, and the thickness of the amorphous cellulose layer which covers the periodic crystalline portions of cellulose. We believe that a better understanding of the mechanisms of deformation and extensibility in wood and in natural materials can pave the way for the development of new strategies to design more advanced materials in engineering structures.     

Fuzzy modelling of a moving grate biomass furnace for simulation and control purposes

Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models are developed for a moving grate biomass furnace for the purpose of simulating and predicting the main process output variables, which are heat output, oxygen concentration of flue gas, and temperature of flue gas. Numerous approaches to modelling biomass furnaces have been proposed in the literature. Usually their objective is to simulate the furnace as accurately as possible. Hence, very complex model architectures are utilized which are not suited for applications like model predictive control. TS fuzzy models are able to approximate the global non-linear behaviour of a moving grate biomass furnace by interpolating between local linear, time-invariant models. The fuzzy partitions of the individual TS fuzzy models are constructed by an axis-orthogonal, incremental partitioning scheme. Validation results with measured process data demonstrate the excellent performance of the developed fuzzy models.     

Gearbox failure diagnosis based on vector autoregressive modelling of vibration data and dynamic principal component analysis

Email: mgt.liu{at}utoronto.ca Email: makis{at}mie.utoronto.ca Received on 4 August 2006. Accepted on 14 December 2006. An effective gearbox failure diagnosis helps prevent catastrophicgearbox failure and can contribute to significant economic benefits.This paper proposes a gear failure diagnosis method based onvector autoregressive modelling of high-frequency vibrationdata, dimensionality reduction applying dynamic principal componentanalysis (PCA) and condition monitoring using a multivariatecontrol chart. After extracting useful information from thevibration data obtained from distinct directions via dynamicPCA, a failure diagnosis scheme is implemented and tested usingreal gearbox vibration data. It is shown that the failure diagnosisscheme can indicate the gear teeth failure pattern when thegear is damaged, which has not been demonstrated in the previousstudies. For a comparison, PCA is applied to the same data set.The results show that the advantages of dynamic PCA over PCAfor failure diagnosis using vibration data consist not onlyin indicating more accurately the occurrence of incipient faultand the actual gear condition, but also in a much lower falsealarm rate.     

Dynamic modelling of die melt temperature profile in polymer extrusion: Effects of process settings,screw geometry and material

Extrusion is one of the major methods for processing polymeric materials and the thermal homogeneity of the process output is a major concern for manufacture of high quality extruded products. Therefore, accurate process thermal monitoring and control are important for product quality control. However, most industrial extruders use single point thermocouples for the temperature monitoring/control although their measurements are highly affected by the barrel metal wall temperature. Currently, no industrially established thermal profile measurement technique is available. Furthermore, it has been shown that the melt temperature changes considerably with the die radial position and hence point/bulk measurements are not sufficient for monitoring and control of the temperature across the melt flow. The majority of process thermal control methods are based on linear models which are not capable of dealing with process nonlinearities. In this work, the die melt temperature profile of a single screw extruder was monitored by a thermocouple mesh technique. The data obtained was used to develop a novel approach of modelling the extruder die melt temperature profile under dynamic conditions (i.e. for predicting the die melt temperature profile in real-time). These newly proposed models were in good agreement with the measured unseen data. They were then used to explore the effects of process settings, material and screw geometry on the die melt temperature profile. The results showed that the process thermal homogeneity was affected in a complex manner by changing the process settings, screw geometry and material.     

等级结构的动力学模型及其解的性质

本文建立状态转移比与成员属于等级的时间有关的等级结构的动力学模型,并利用正半群理论得到解的渐近性态。     

具有动应力和动位移约束的离散变量结构拓扑优化设计方法

讨论了动应力、动位移约束下离散变量结构拓扑优化设计问题.首先给出问题的数学模型,然后用拟静力算法,将结构惯性力极值作为静载荷施加到结构上,求得结构的动位移和动内力,将考虑动应力约束和动位移约束的离散变量结构拓扑设计问题化为静应力和静位移约束的优化问题,然后利用两类变量统一考虑的离散变量结构拓扑优化设计的综合算法进行求解.     

介质与结构三维动力相互作用分析的半解析边界元—半解析有限元结合法

本文将半解析边界元一半解析有限无结合法用于介质与结构的动力相互作用研究:用半解析边界元法分析具有复杂地表面的半无限介质,用半解析有限元法分析具有任意截面形状的柱体结构,利用介质与结构交界面上的位移相容条件和力平衡条件,将介质与结构联系起来。联立京解上述半解析边界元方程和半解析有限元方程,对应每一时间步进,可同时求出介质与结构交界面上的位移、速度、加速度和相互作用力以及地表面的运动情况.与目前广泛研究的边界元—有限元结合法相比,本方法在介质与结构二个个区域各降低了一维空间,因而离散单元数和计算工作量大幅度减少,人工输入数据非常简单.文中还考虑了地下结构的长跨比效应、厚度效应和介质效应.     

具有动应力、位移和稳定性约束的离散变量桁架结构布局优化设计算法

给出了在动应力、动位移和动稳定约束下离散变量结构布局优化设计问题的数学模型,用“拟静力”算法,将具有动应力约束、动位移约束和动稳定约束的离散变量结构布局优化设计问题化为静应力、静位移和静稳定约束的优化问题,然后利用两级优化算法求解该模型．优化过程由两级组成,拓扑级优化和形状级优化．在每一级,都使用了综合算法,并且在搜索过程中都根据两类设计变量的相对差商值进行搜索．对包含稳定约束和不包含稳定约束的优化结果做了比较,结果显示稳定性约束对优化结果产生较大的影响．     

基于指标变异程度与关联程度组合赋权的中国工业结构转换能力动态综合评价

从需求因素、供给因素、技术因素、可持续发展和对外贸易五方面构建了中国工业结构转换能力评价指标体系,运用反映指标变异程度差异信息的熵值法和离差最大化法以及反映指标关联程度差异信息的BP-DEMATEL方法确定指标权重,然后运用最小距离—最大熵方法对不同的权重结果进行集成得到组合权重,以此权重对中国30个省份的工业结构转换能力进行了静态与动态评价。评价结果显示中国工业结构转换能力各省份非均衡发展现象突出,呈现从东向西阶梯状递减的规律。