有序判别分析新算法及其应用

判别分析是用已知分类数据建模对未知分类数据进行判别的方法,所用数据和分类不分顺序。要对有序又有周期数据进行判别分析,就要探索有序判别的新方法。这种方法的分类应当是有序的,并且能够排除事物发展周期性的干扰。本文介绍多元数据有序判别分析新方法的原理、建模流程、应用流程和应用实例。这种判别分析将分类建模与判别归类分开。新方法对多元数据建模时在多类模型中建立滑移的多套子模型,应用时根据应用领域的知识对样本归属作初步预估,然后程序选择相关的子模型进行判别归类。这种方法解决了由于时间序列多元数据周期性造成的样本分类颠倒问题,为时间序列数据的分类和预测开辟了新途径,在实际应用中取得了良好的效果,解决了重大难题。     

非线性灰色Bernoulli模型的改进及应用

非线性灰色Bernoulli模型是灰色预测模型的一类拓展,在捕捉序列非线性趋势性能上表现良好,但仍然存在许多改进的空间.在传统的非线性灰色Bernoulli模型的基础上提出一种改进的方法,结合优化初始值,采用Guass-Newton算法求解最优模型参数以及滚动建模机制三个方面对模型进行改进.数值结果表明,优化初始值能够提高模型的预测精度,Guass-Newton算法寻求最优参数以及滚动建模机制能进一步减少预测误差的产生.因此,改进的模型能够有效地提高非线性灰色Bernoulli模型的预测性能.     

带有长期趋势的近似周期时间序列的刻度变换估计

近似周期时间序列具有近似的周期趋势,即近似周期性.所谓近似周期性是指它看起来有周期性,但是每个周期的长度不是常数,比如太阳黑子数序列.近似周期时间序列在社会经济现象建模中有着广泛的应用前景.对于近似周期时间序列,关键在于刻画它的近似周期趋势,因为一旦近似周期趋势被刻画出来它就可以作为一个普通的时间序列来处理.然而,关于近似周期趋势刻画的研究却很少. 本文首先建立一些必要的理论,特别地,提出了带长度压缩的保形变换概念,并且得到了带长度压缩的线性保形变换的充分必要,然后基于此理论作者提出了一种估计尺度变换的方法,该方法可以很好地估计出近似周期趋势.最后,对一个仿真实例进行了分析.结果表明,本文所提出的方法强力有效.     

改进的函数系数自回归建模方法对上海股市实证分析

函数系数自回归模型(FAR)是一类更具有适应性的模型。本文利用函数系数自回归模型对上海股市日收益率进行建模及短期预测,改进现有建模对带宽、模型的依赖变量以及阶数确定方法。并与上海股市日收益率的自回归模型结果进行了比较,结果表明改进的函数系数模型具有很好的预测能力。     

基于季节ARIMA模型的电力系统负荷短期预测

电力负荷是影响电网寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素,其月负荷变化具有明显的周期性.介绍了应用季节ARIMA模型进行电力负荷建模预测的理论和方法,将季节ARIMA模型应用于电力系统负荷短期预测,测试结果证明了方法的有效性.     

基于趋势修正的灰预测模型优化研究

针对序列增长趋势不完全满足准指数规律时的灰色预测建模问题,提出基于GM(1,1)模型与序列增长趋势之间偏差修正的建模方法,将GM(1,1)模型还原式中的常数项作为灰变量处理,加入调整系数以缩小拟合值与实际值之间的增长趋势差异,利用灰色离散模型拟合调整系数的变化过程,将得到的调整系数拟合值带入原时间响应函数,进而得到趋势修正的原始序列拟合值;运用新的建模方法对南京市第三产业用电量进行拟合和预测,证明了方法有效提升了GM(1,1)建模精度,并且拟合序列和实际序列的灰色绝对关联度得到提高.     

基于信息再利用的灰色系统GM(1.1)模型建模方法及应用

目的:寻找新的灰色系统GM(1.1)模型建模方法,建立拟合精度与预测精度较高的GM(1.1)模型.方法:在邓聚龙教授建模方法的基础上,用基于信息再利用的方法,建立新的灰色系统GM(1.1)模型.结果:用基于信息再利用的灰色系统GM(1.1)模型建模方法建立的GM(1.1)模型,其拟合精度与预测精度不但优于传统方法建立的GM(1.1)模型,而且优于其他改进方法建立的GM(1.1)模型.结论:基于信息再利用的灰色系统GM(1.1)模型建模方法不但建模过程简单适用,而且其建立的GM(1.1)模型拟合精度与预测精度优于其他改进方法建立的GM(1.1)模型,因而具有广泛的应用价值.     

Verhulst模型、微分模型及时滞模型的建模与经济预测应用

经济预测中常常会遇到外生变量的确定问题，由于累积误差和传递误差的存在而很困难，因而需要其它方法，为此我们引入Ｖｅｒｈｕｌｓｔ模型来描述经济过程的动态特征，并用阶数不超过３的微分模型发展了这一思想以便描述，同时具有趋势变动和周期性扰动的数据结构，这是一种非常普遍的情形．然后我们证明了微分模型与时滞模型是等价的，而后者的参数估计极为简单．     

基于性能退化的动量轮可靠性建模与评估

为解决长寿命卫星动量轮可靠性评估无失效数据问题,研究基于性能退化的动量轮可靠性建模与评估方法.首先通过失效分析,提出以温度作为动量轮可靠性的特征量.然后利用动量轮温度的遥测数据,建立其温度随时间变化的叠合模型.为解决动量轮试验样本量不足问题,采用Bootstrap仿真方法建立动量轮寿命分布模型,评估其可靠性水平.实例表明,方法能够在无失效数据情况下,利用性能退化数据评估动量轮可靠性,且具有较高精度,为解决无失效数据条件下长寿命卫星动量轮可靠性建模与评估问题提供了一条有效途径.     

灰建模在条件价值法数据处理中的应用

采用三江平原湿地调查问卷结果作为原始数据,探讨了灰建模方法在条件价值法数据处理中的应用.在对问卷数据进行聚类分析的基础上,采用传统的GM(1,1)模型,得到了合理有效的灰色模型,改进了条件价值法数据建模中仅将支付与抗议支付作为两个基本变量的模型,得出了多分类模型.     

Representation varieties of arithmetic groups and polynomial periodicity of Betti numbers

We give a method of studying character varieties of arithmetic groups with an application to polynomial periodicity of Betti numbers of manifolds in congruence towers.     

一个求解二项式系数幂和序列递推公式的方法

根据同余理论并利用二项式系数幂和序列在模p下具有周期性的事实,提出一种求解递推公式的方法,从理论上证明其可行性.使得求解和验证二项式系数幂和序列递推公式具有完备的理论基础.     

Unitary local systems, multiplier ideals, and polynomial periodicity of Hodge numbers

The space of unitary local systems of rank one on the complement of an arbitrary divisor in a complex projective algebraic variety can be described in terms of parabolic line bundles. We show that multiplier ideals provide natural stratifications of this space. We prove a structure theorem for these stratifications in terms of complex tori and convex rational polytopes, generalizing to the quasi-projective case results of Green-Lazarsfeld and Simpson. As an application we show the polynomial periodicity of Hodge numbers hq,0 of congruence covers in any dimension, generalizing results of E. Hironaka and Sakuma. We extend the structure theorem and polynomial periodicity to the setting of cohomology of unitary local systems. In particular, we obtain a generalization of the polynomial periodicity of Betti numbers of unbranched congruence covers due to Sarnak-Adams. We derive a geometric characterization of finite abelian covers, which recovers the classic one and the one of Pardini. We use this, for example, to prove a conjecture of Libgober about Hodge numbers of abelian covers.     

Periodicity of Balancing Numbers

The balancing numbers originally introduced by Behera and Panda [2] as solutions of a Diophantine equation on triangular numbers possess many interesting properties. Many of these properties are comparable to certain properties of Fibonacci numbers, while some others are more interesting. Wall [14] studied the periodicity of Fibonacci numbers modulo arbitrary natural numbers. The periodicity of balancing numbers modulo primes and modulo terms of certain sequences exhibits beautiful results, again, some of them are identical with corresponding results of Fibonacci numbers, while some others are more fascinating. An important observation concerning the periodicity of balancing numbers is that, the period of this sequence coincides with the modulus of congruence if the modulus is any power of 2. There are three known primes for which the period of the sequence of balancing numbers modulo each prime is equal to the period modulo its square, while for the Fibonacci sequence, till date no such prime is available.     

A posteriori error majorants of the modeling errors for elliptic homogenization problems

In this paper, we derive new two-sided a posteriori estimates of the modeling errors for linear elliptic boundary value problems with periodic coefficients solved by homogenization. Our approach is based on the concept of functional a posteriori error estimation. The estimates are obtained for the energy norm and use solely the global flux of the non-oscillatory solution of the homogenized model and solution of a boundary value problem on the cell of periodicity.     

Estimates of modeling errors for linear elliptic problems

We derive new estimates of modeling errors for linear elliptic boundary value problems with periodic coefficients solved by homogenization method. Our approach is based on the concept of functional a posteriori error estimation. The estimates are obtained for the energy norm and use solely the global flux of the non-oscillatory solution of the homogenized model and solution of a boundary value problem on the cell of periodicity. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Stability and bifurcation of an unstructured model of a bioreactor with cell recycle

An unstructured model of a bioreactor with cell recycle and substrate inhibition kinetics is used to investigate the bifurcation and stability characteristics of this unit. The singularity theory used for this investigation allows a global analysis of steady-states multiplicity and the different bifurcation mechanisms occurring in the system including hysteresis and pitchfork. Analytical criteria are also derived for the safe operation of the reactor and to prevent wash-out conditions. The investigation of the dynamic bifurcation, on the other hand, shows that the model cannot exhibit periodic attractors with any growth kinetics model. The inability of this widely used model to exhibit periodicity despite the experimental results that support the existence of periodic behavior in many bioreactors suggests that new approaches are to be taken for the modeling.     

近似周期时间序列分析（英文）

本文首先给出了近似周期时间序列概念,即:具有周期特征但是周期长度变化的时间序列.比如,太阳黑子序列具有11年左右的周期,但是其周期并不是11,而是在11左右变化,这就是一个近似周期序列.然后给出了提取近似周期趋势方法,并且提出了广义差分算子,这里提出的广义差分算子不仅可以消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期性,而且还可以消除近似周期性.最后,以太阳黑子序列为例说明了广义差分算子的应用.