Optimal timing decisions for the introduction of new technologies

High technology industries, such as the communications industry, are characterized by frequent development of new technologies. These new technologies are often available before the capacities of existing facilities that use an old technology are exhausted. Whenever a new technology facility is introduced, a fixed set-up cost is generally incurred; however, the annual operating costs are often reduced. The optimal timing of the introduction of new facilities is therefore of interest.In this paper, we examine such timing decisions. The study was motivated by an application involving electronic plug-in units that enhance the operation of communication facilities. First, we develop optimal timing decisions for linearly growing demand. The analysis is then extended to nonlinear demand. For linear demand, one of two decisions is optimal: Either introduce the new technology immediately, or as late as possible. However, for nonlinear demand, these decisions may be nonoptimal.     

Equilibrium analysis of disaggregate facility choice systems subject to congestion-elastic demand.

This paper considers the impact of congestion on the spatial distribution of customer utilization of service facilities in a stochastic-dynamic environment. Previous research has assumed that the rate of demand for service is independent of the attributes of the facilities. We consider the more general case in which facility utilization is determined both by individual facility choice (based on the stochastic disaggregate choice mechanism) and by the rate of demand for service. We develop generalized results for proving that equilibria exist and describe sufficient conditions for the uniqueness and global stability of these equilibria. These conditions depend upon the elasticity of demand with respect to the level of congestion at the facilities, and on whether customers are congestion-averse or are congestion-loving. Finally, we examine special cases when these conditions are satisfied.     

Coincidence conditions in multifacility location problems with positive and negative weights

In minisum multifacility location problems one has to find locations for some new facilities, such that the weighted sum of distances between the new and a certain number of old facilities with known locations is minimized. In this kind of problem, the optimal locations of clusters of facilities frequently tend to coincide. By testing conditions for coincidence, one has the opportunity to collapse some or even all facilities coinciding at an optimal point into one. In this way, the dimension of the problem and the degree of nondifferentiability is reduced. Several conditions for coincidence have been published recently. In this paper, these conditions are extended and improved with respect to new sufficient coincidence conditions for location problems with attracting and repelling facilities. An example shows that these new conditions detect more coincidences than the conditions which are known so far, even if all facilities involved are attracting ones.     

Solving a chemical batch scheduling problem by local search

In this paper the following chemical batch scheduling problem is considered: a set of orders has to be processed on a set of facilities. For each order a given amount of a product must be produced by means of chemical reactions before a given deadline. The production consists of a sequence of processes whereby each process has to be performed by one facility out of a given subset of facilities allowed for this process. The processing times depend on the choice of the facility and the processing is done in batch mode with given minimum and maximum sizes. The problem is to assign the processes to the facilities, splitting them into batches, and scheduling these batches in order to produce the demands within the given deadlines. For the scheduling part of the problem we present an approach based on the following steps. First, a procedure to calculate the minimum number of batches needed to satisfy the demands is presented. Based on this, the given problem is modeled in two different ways: as a general shop scheduling problem with set-up times or as scheduling problem with positive time-lags. Finally, a two-phase tabu search method is presented which is based on the two different formulations of the problem. The method is tested on some real world data. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Dynamic evolution of economically preferred facilities

In a sustained development scenario, it is often the case that an investment is to be made over time in facilities that generate benefits. The benefits result from joint synergies between the facilities expressed as positive utilities specific to some subsets of facilities. As incremental budgets to finance fixed facility costs become available over time, additional facilities can be opened. The question is which facilities should be opened in order to guarantee that the overall benefit return over time is on the highest possible trajectory. This problem is common in situations such as ramping up a communication or transportation network where the facilities are hubs or service stations, or when introducing new technologies such as alternative fuels for cars and the facilities are fueling stations, or when expanding the production capacity with new machines, or when facilities are functions in a developing organization that is forced to make choices of where to invest limited funding.     

Electric load forecasting methods: Tools for decision making

For decision makers in the electricity sector, the decision process is complex with several different levels that have to be taken into consideration. These comprise for instance the planning of facilities and an optimal day-to-day operation of the power plant. These decisions address widely different time-horizons and aspects of the system. For accomplishing these tasks load forecasts are very important. Therefore, finding an appropriate approach and model is at core of the decision process. Due to the deregulation of energy markets, load forecasting has gained even more importance. In this article, we give an overview over the various models and methods used to predict future load demands.     

Invariant measure for the stochastic Cauchy problem driven by a cylindrical Lévy process

In this work, we present sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary solution of an abstract stochastic Cauchy problem driven by an arbitrary cylindrical Lévy process, and show that these conditions are also necessary if the semigroup is stable, in which case the invariant measure is unique. For typical situations such as the heat equation, we significantly simplify these conditions without assuming any further restrictions on the driving cylindrical Lévy process and demonstrate their application in some examples.     

Nondifferentiability Detection and Dimensionality Reduction in Minisum Multifacility Location Problems

The minisum multifacility location problem is regarded as hard to solve, due to nondifferentiabilities whenever two or more facilities coincide. Recently, several authors have published conditions for the coincidence of facilities. In the present paper, these conditions are extended to more general location problems and improved with respect to new sufficient coincidence conditions for location problems with mixed asymmetric gauges. Some of these conditions are formulated only in terms of the given weights and certain values from a preprocessing step.     

The multi-hour service system design problem

This paper studies the multi-hour service system design problem that involves locating service facilities, determining their number and capacities and assigning user nodes to those facilities under time varying demand conditions. The goal is to minimize total costs made of the costs of accessing facilities by users and waiting for service at these facilities as well as the cost of setting up and operating the facilities. A unified model is proposed for the problem to exploit the benefits of the non-coincidence of demand across busy-hours. Two Lagrangean relaxation-based heuristic solution procedures are developed and the results of extensive computational experiments are reported.     

Locating flow-capturing units on a network with multi-counting and diminishing returns to scale

In the paper we consider the problem of locating flow-capturing units (facilities) on a transportation network, where the level of consuming service by customers depends on the number of facilities that they encounter on their pre-planned tour (the effect of multi-counting). Two location problems are considered: Problem 1 — minimizing the number of facilities required to ensure the maximal level of consumption, and Problem 2 — maximizing the total consumption given a restriction on the number of facilities. Both problems are NP-hard on general networks. Integer programming formulations of the problems are given. For Problem 2, a heuristic with worst-case analysis is presented. It is shown that Problem 2 is NP-hard even on a tree (and even without multi-counting). For Problem 1 on a tree a polynomial algorithm is presented. If it is required additionally that at most one facility can be located at each node and locations are restricted to nodes, then both problems are NP-hard on trees.     

On finiteness and continuity of shot noise processes

For a rather general class of stochastic processes induced by time-stationary and by event-stationary random marked point processes, respectively, conditions are given for the almost sure finiteness of these processes and for their continuous dependence on the underlying random marked point process.     

Locating semi-obnoxious facilities with expropriation: minisum criterion

This paper considers the problem of locating semi-obnoxious facilities assuming that demand points within a certain distance from an open facility are expropriated at a given price. The objective is to locate the facilities so as to minimize the total weighted transportation cost and expropriation cost. Models are developed for both single and multiple facilities. For the case of locating a single facility, finite dominating sets are determined for the problems on a plane and on a network. An efficient algorithm is developed for the problem on a network. For the case of locating multiple facilities, a branch-and-bound procedure using Lagrangian relaxation is proposed and its efficiency is tested with computational experiments.     

Geometric interpretation of the optimality conditions in multifacility location and applications

Geometrical optimality conditions are developed for the minisum multifacility location problem involving any norm. These conditions are then used to derive sufficient conditions for coincidence of facilities at optimality; an example is given to show that these coincidence conditions seem difficult to generalize.     

Analysis and evolution of basic strategies in investment planning for modern flexible technologies

Investment decisions for new technologies still contain a comparatively high degree of uncertainty. For reducing this uncertainty, the author proposes a process of strategic-investment-planning that is divided into four steps. First, the technologies under consideration are classified according to their degree of novelty, their position in the life cycle und their technological characteristics. Secondly, the impact of the new technologies on the enterprise's competitive position is determined. From the technology-portfolio, introduction strategies can be derived. Finally, the calendar of technologies demonstrates how to plan for future structural changes in manufacturing technology. The presented instruments are based on empirical research conducted by the author.     

Company-wide production planning using a multiple technology DEA approach

In this paper, Data Envelopment Analysis is used to determine the target output levels (and corresponding required inputs) for the multiple facilities under the responsibility of a Top Decision Maker. The proposed approach aims at minimizing the input costs incurred to attain specified total, company-wide output levels. Specific features of the proposed approach are the consideration of multiple technologies, lower and upper bounds on the production levels of each plant and the possibility of shutting down a plant, with the corresponding costs, if necessary. The consideration of multiple technologies, in particular, takes into account the existence of heterogeneity within the company's facilities. In that scenario, grouping all plants within a single technology gives misleading results.     

Exact and approximation methods for dependability assessment of tram systems with time window

The transportation system examined in this paper is the city tram one, where failed trams are replaced by reliable spare ones. If failed tram is repaired and delivered, then it comes back on work. There is the time window that failed tram has to be either replaced (exchanged) by spare or by repaired and delivered within. Time window is therefore paramount to user perception of transport system unreliability. Time between two subsequent failures, exchange time, and repair together with delivery time, respectively, are described by random variables A, E, and D. A/E/D is selected as the notation for these random variables. There is a finite number of spare trams. Delivery time does not depend on the number of repair facilities. Hence, repair and delivery process can be treated as one with infinite number of facilities. Undesirable event called hazard is the event: neither the replacement nor the delivery has been completed in the time window. The goal of the paper is to find the following relationships: hazard probability of the tram system and mean hazard time as functions of number of spare trams. For systems with exponential time between failures, Weibull exchange and exponential delivery (so M/W/M in the proposed notation) two accurate solutions have been found. For systems with Weibull time between failures with shape in the range from 0.9 to 1.1, Weibull exchange and exponential delivery (i.e. W/W/M) a method yielding small errors has been provided. For the most general and difficult case in which all the random variables conform to Weibull distribution (W/W/W) a method returning moderate errors has been given.     

Facility location for market capture when users rank facilities by shorter travel and waiting times

A firm wants to locate several multi-server facilities in a region where there is already a competitor operating. We propose a model for locating these facilities in such a way as to maximize market capture by the entering firm, when customers choose the facilities they patronize, by the travel time to the facility and the waiting time at the facility. Each customer can obtain the service or goods from several (rather than only one) facilities, according to a probabilistic distribution. We show that in these conditions, there is demand equilibrium, and we design an ad hoc heuristic to solve the problem, since finding the solution to the model involves finding the demand equilibrium given by a nonlinear equation. We show that by using our heuristic, the locations are better than those obtained by utilizing several other methods, including MAXCAP, p-median and location on the nodes with the largest demand.     

基于改进NSGA-II算法的多级服务设施备用覆盖选址决策模型

为了应对跨区域突发事件过程中受灾点服务差异化需求的问题,建立了应急储备设施点的多级备用覆盖选址决策模型,即一个需求点由多个应急设施提供不同质量水平的服务,并考虑设施繁忙状态下由其他设施点提供服务的状况,使模型更加符合实际应用。首次通过设计分段的染色体编码方式改进NSGA-II算法提升运算效率以更好地解决多目标选址决策问题,将改进方法下得到的Pareto解分布与NSGA-II算法下的仿真结果进行对比分析,结合设施点的部署策略得到不同的空间布局方案。证明了模型的可行性及改进NSGA-II算法在解决设施点多目标选址决策问题时的有效性。     

Non-compensatory composite indicators for the evaluation of urban planning policy: The Land-Use Policy Efficiency Index (LUPEI)

In this research paper, we define and test an ELECTRE III-based approach to the construction of non-compensatory composite indicators; these indicators are used for the evaluation of environmental and social performances of urban and regional planning policies. We tested the methodology for the construction of the Land-Use Policy Efficiency Index (LUPEI) on the municipal scale applied to a sample of municipalities in the Apulia Region (Southern Italy). Based on the literature review concerning composite indicators, we found that linear aggregation rules are the most widely applied aggregation procedures for composite indicators. However, their applicability depends on a set of strong theoretical and operational conditions. If these conditions do not hold, then other aggregation and weighting procedures must be applied to construct the composite indicators. We tested the ELECTRE III via a fruitful interaction with three experts who were participating in a focus group. We found that composite indicators are powerful tools when it comes to the assessment of multidimensional planning issues. Since each sub-indicator provides different information and responds to different goals, rankings and assessment based on mono-indicator frameworks can lead to incomplete or even biased results that do not consider an integrated approach to land-use policy efficiency. Moreover, both experts and decision-makers appreciated the role of composite indicators in increasing knowledge and providing deeper insights into complex phenomena in the domains of urban and regional planning.     

On asymptotic behavior of probabilities of large and moderate deviations for some iterated stochastic processes

We derive logarithmic asymptotics for probabilities of large deviations for some iterated processes. We show that under appropriate conditions, these asymptotics are the same as those for sums of independent random variables. When these conditions do not hold, the asymptotics of large deviations for iterated processes are quite different. When the iterated process is a homogeneous process with independent increments in which time is replaced by random one, the behavior of large and moderate deviations is studied in the case of finite variance. For this case, the following one-sided moment restriction are considered: the Cramèr condition, the Linnik condition, and the existence of moment of order p > 2 for a positive part. Bibliography: 6 titles.