解决医院病床安排问题的线性规划方法

本文研究了医院病床安排问题,在综合考虑病人等待入院和等待手术期间产生费用的前提下,建立了病床安排问题的线性规划模型。利用该模型,可以得到使病人平均等待费用最低的入院顺序。通过实例计算显示,利用本文模型得到的结果与利用传统的先到先服务原则安排的结果相比,病人等待手术的平均时间大约缩短了50%,等待费用大约降低了50%。     

基于Q-过程和随机模拟的病床安排方案

本文设计的一个新的住院病床安排方案,可用来取代传统的FCFS(先到先得)规则.患者在等候队列中的优先级将基于病情和手术的紧急程度.本文把患者的入住情况转化为经典的M/M/N排队论问题,利用可逆Q-过程的性质以及经典排队论的结果,得到各类疾病患者的平均逗留时间以及所需床位数的先验估计.根据独立Poisson过程的性质确定排队过程的Q-矩阵,从而作出相应的先验估计和具体表达式.在若干约束条件的基础上,利用C++编程求得最优病床分配方案.本文建立的评价指标体系,通过计算机随机模拟,证明了在多种情形下,该模型较FCFS(先到先得)规则更具优势.     

企业经营敏捷性的评价指标体系和模糊综合评价

企业经营敏捷性由一系列指标来体现．4个一级指标分别是市场反应程度、企业组织桑性、企业管理适应性与企业文化创新性、企业经营业绩．4个一级指标又包含19个二级指标．运用模糊综合评价方法,构建了企业经营敏捷性的评价模型．依托实际案例,使用所建立的评价指标体系和评价模型,对实例企业进行了模糊综合评价,根据评价结果判断企业是否具备经营敏捷性．     

社会主义新农村建设评价指标体系的集对分析模型

构建社会主义新农村建设的评价指标体系的集对分析模型,是指在综合分析的基础上,基于一定的原则和标准,对新农村建设的进程做出定量评价.建立起一套客观、合理、操作简便的评价指标体系,利用现代的数学方法建立定量评价模型.     

基于物元分析法的信息系统风险评价模型研究

当前,我国信息安全事件频发,国家政府高度重视,在构建信息系统风险评价指标体系的基础上,采用层次分析法确定权重,建立了基于物元分析法的信息系统风险评价模型,并采用实例对该模型进行了分析。     

绿色农产品供应链绩效评价的灰色聚类——模糊综合模型及应用

绩效评价是供应链管理的重要一环,而绩效评价指标体系和评价模型是绩效评价的关键.充分考虑农产品的特殊性,在传统四维平衡记分卡的基础上构建了六维农产品供应链绩效评价指标体系,结合灰色聚类和模糊综合评价构建了农产品供应链绩效评价模型.模型克服了模糊综合评价隶属度难以确定的问题,通过将建立的指标体系和评价模型对某农产品供应链进行绩效评价分析,得出该公司绩效评价结果为良好.结果表明,方法不仅能够客观评价供应链整体绩效,还可以分层次多角度进行评价,指出不同方面存在的问题及改进方向.     

基于AHP和DEA法的高校信息化水平评价研究

根据高校信息化水平评价的特点,构建了适合我国高校信息化水平评价的指标体系.在此基础上,建立了基于AHP和DEA多目标排序的评价模型,并运用该模型对高校信息化水平进行了评价与分析,为高校信息化评价探索了新的途径.     

眼科病床安排的优化模型

根据不同类型眼科病人手术时间的限制情况,建立了入院安排的整数规划模型,通过具体计算结果定量分析了模型的使用情况.运用统计分析方法给出病人大致入院时间,并建立使所有病人在系统内平均逗留时间最短的病床比例分配模型.     

基于灰色关联分析的战略性新兴产业评价——以生物医药为例

以灰色理论分析为基础,建立了符合我国生物医药这一战略性新兴产业特点的评价指标体系和评价模型,并以吉林通化医药城、上海张江“药谷”、湖南浏阳生物医药园产业群为研究对象,作了实证分析．     

基于模糊综合评判法的保密风险定量评估

根据保密工作现状和实际情况,针对保密风险的的特点,分析了其相关影响因素,建立了保密风险评估的指标体系,给出了评估指标的量化处理方法,并对评价指标进行了无量纲化处理．在此基础上,提出了保密风险的模糊综合评估模型,划分了保密风险的5类等级．     

A travel-time model for a person-onboard order picking system

The design of an order picking system in a distribution center depends on several decisions, where a key decision is determining the optimal storage system configuration (the number, length, and height of the storage aisles). To make this decision, a throughput model that considers vertical, as well as horizontal, travel is needed. In this paper we extend prior research that considers horizontal travel for a given number and length of the storage aisles so that we are also able to consider the height of the aisles as well. Such a model will provide a more accurate estimate of the throughput of an order picker and it will also permit an examination of the tradeoff between the length and height of the aisles. The analytical model we develop to estimate throughput is based on probability models and order statistics results assuming random storage. It is intended for person-onboard order picking systems and we consider both Tchebychev and rectilinear travel. We illustrate the use of our travel-time model by incorporating it into a simple, cost-based optimization model to recommend the height of a one-pallet-deep storage system.     

基于GARCH股票市场模型技术指标的理论分析

本文根据股标市场的动量指标RSI和ROC构造了相应的统计量,并研究了GARCH模型作为真实股票市场上述统计量的概率性质,证明了在给定条件下这些统计量的平稳性和大数定律成立.这为股价的技术分析提供了理论依据.     

Statistical Inference in a Linear Model for Spatially Located Sensors and Random Input

In the paper we consider a random linear model for observations provided by spatially located sensors measuring signals coming from one source. For this model a set of sufficient and complete statistics are found, and it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters (characteristics of the source) are functions of those statistics. The problem of nonnegative estimators of variance components of the model is shortly discussed. Comparisons of the mean squared errors of several estimators are given. Numerical example concerning hunting for defects in solar cells is considered in details.     

多维评价主观判断的有效性研究

本文以灰色系统理论为基础,把专家主观判断的结果表征为“区间灰数”,用灰数统计方法进行统计分析,建立了评价专家主观判断有效性的灰色模型,该模型具有良好的可操作性和有效性．     

线性回归诊断的若干问题

本文对于线性回归诊断提出了几种新的模型和方法。我们首次研究了方差加权和均值漂移的混合模型,得到了相应的诊断统计量。本文还引入了罚函数方法,并以此为工具,讨论了若干有偏估计的影响度量,最后,本文提出了基于重心的诊断统计量,对于识别异常点有较好的效果。     

Tests d'hypothèses sur les coefficients de Fourier d'une fonction de régression non linéaire

We consider the nonparametric regression model with regression function ƒ. We construct tests for hypotheses on Fourier coefficients of ƒ in a given band of frequencies. Such tests can be used in particular to compare two noisy signals in a frequency band. The test statistics, we use, are based on the empirical Fourier coefficients of the regression function ƒ.     

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics is studied. It is shown that spacings of generalized order statistics from DFR (IFR) distributions have the CIS (CDS) property. By restricting the choice of the model parameters and strengthening the assumptions on the underlying distribution, stronger dependence relations are established. For instance, if the model parameters are decreasingly ordered and the underlying distribution has a log-convex decreasing (log-concave) hazard rate, then the spacings satisfy the MTP₂ (S- MRR₂) property. Some consequences of the results are given. In particular, conditions for non-negativity of the best linear unbiased estimator of the scale parameter in a location-scale family are obtained. By applying a result for dual generalized order statistics, we show that in the particular situation of usual order statistics the assumptions can be weakened.     

Order restricted inference for sequential k-out-of-n systems

Sequential order statistics have been introduced to model sequential k-out-of-n systems which, as an extension of k-out-of-n systems, allow the failure of some components of the system to influence the remaining ones. Based on an independent sample of vectors of sequential order statistics, the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters of a sequential k-out-of-n system are derived under order restrictions. Special attention is paid to the simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and the distribution parameters for a flexible location-scale family. Furthermore, order restricted hypothesis tests are considered for making the decision whether the usual k-out-of-n model or the general sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate for a given data.     

Strong Domain of Attraction of Extreme Generalized Order Statistics

It is a well-known result in extreme value theory that the von Mises conditions imply the strong convergence of extreme order statistics. We extend this result to extreme generalized order statistics. A characterization of strong domains of attraction of joint distributions of a fixed number of extreme generalized order statistics by means of the corresponding result for generalized maxima is given. In particular, we determine the asymptotic joint distribution of (upper and lower) extreme generalized order statistics. Finally, we show that the Hill estimator based on extreme generalized order statistics is asymptotic normal.     

Multiple-solution problems in a statistics classroom: an example

The mathematics education literature shows that encouraging students to develop multiple solutions for given problems has a positive effect on students’ understanding and creativity. In this paper, we present an example of multiple-solution problems in statistics involving a set of non-traditional dice. In particular, we consider the exact probability mass distribution for the sum of face values. Four different ways of solving the problem are discussed. The solutions span various basic concepts in different mathematical disciplines (sample space in probability theory, the probability generating function in statistics, integer partition in basic combinatorics and individual risk model in actuarial science) and thus promotes upper undergraduate students’ awareness of knowledge connections between their courses. All solutions of the example are implemented using the R statistical software package.