On exponential rates of likelihood ratio estimators for location parameters

In this paper the exponential rates, bounds, and local exponential rates for likelihood ratio estimators are studied. Under certain regularity conditions, a family of likelihood ratio estimators is shown to be admissible in exponential rate. It is also shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is the limit of this family of estimators.     

二次约束下多指标线性模型回归系数线性估计的可容许性

本文推广了Hoffmann[1]与Mathew[2]的结果，在二次损失下得到了二次约束下多指标线性模型中回归系数线性估计在线性估计类中可容许性的充要条件．     

On a class of almost unbiased ratio estimators

Summary Murthy and Nanjamma [4] studied the problem of construction of almost unbiased ratio estimators for any sampling design using the technique of interpenetrating subsamples. Subsequently, Rao [7], [8] has given a general method of constructing unbiased ratio estimators by considering linear combinations of the two simple estimators based on the ratio of means and the mean of ratios. However, it is difficult to choose an optimum weight (Rao [9]) which minimizes the variance of the combined estimator since the weights are random in certain cases. In this note, we consider a different method of combining these estimators and obtain a general class of almost unbiased ratio estimators of which Murthy and Nanjamma's is a particular case and derive an optimum in this class. The case of simple random sampling where a similar class of almost unbiased ratio estimators can be developed is briefly discussed. The results are illustrated by means of simple numerical examples.     

Minimax multivariate empirical Bayes estimators under multicollinearity

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the matrix of regression coefficients in a multivariate linear regression model in which the design matrix is near singular. Under the assumption of normality, we propose empirical Bayes ridge regression estimators with three types of shrinkage functions, that is, scalar, componentwise and matricial shrinkage. These proposed estimators are proved to be uniformly better than the least squares estimator, that is, minimax in terms of risk under the Strawderman's loss function. Through simulation and empirical studies, they are also shown to be useful in the multicollinearity cases.     

A matrix formula for the skewness of maximum likelihood estimators

We give a general matrix formula for computing the second-order skewness of maximum likelihood estimators. The formula was firstly presented in a tensorial version by Bowman and Shenton (1998). Our matrix formulation has numerical advantages, since it requires only simple operations on matrices and vectors. We apply the second-order skewness formula to a normal model with a generalized parametrization and to an ARMA model.     

On the comparison of the pre-test and shrinkage phi-divergence test estimators for the symmetry model of categorical data

The estimation problem of the parameters in a symmetry model for categorical data has been considered for many authors in the statistical literature (for example, Bowker (1948) [1], Ireland et al. (1969) [2], Quade and Salama (1975) [3], Cressie and Read (1988) [4], Menéndez et al. (2005) [5]) without using uncertain prior information. It is well known that many new and interesting estimators, using uncertain prior information, have been studied by a host of researchers in different statistical models, and many papers have been published on this topic (see Saleh (2006) [9] and references therein). In this paper, we consider the symmetry model of categorical data and we study, for the first time, some new estimators when non-sample information about the symmetry of the probabilities is considered. The decision to use a “restricted” estimator or an “unrestricted” estimator is based on the outcome of a preliminary test, and then a shrinkage technique is used. It is interesting to note that we present a unified study in the sense that we consider not only the maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test or chi-square test statistic but we consider minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics. Families of minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics are wide classes of estimators and test statistics that contain as a particular case the maximum likelihood estimator, likelihood ratio test and chi-square test statistic. In an asymptotic set-up, the biases and the risk under the squared loss function for the proposed estimators are derived and compared. A numerical example clarifies the content of the paper.     

Folded overlapping variance estimators for simulation

We propose and analyze a new class of estimators for the variance parameter of a steady-state simulation output process. The new estimators are computed by averaging individual estimators from “folded” standardized time series based on overlapping batches composed of consecutive observations. The folding transformation on each batch can be applied more than once to produce an entire set of estimators. We establish the limiting distributions of the proposed estimators as the sample size tends to infinity while the ratio of the sample size to the batch size remains constant. We give analytical and Monte Carlo results showing that, compared to their counterparts computed from nonoverlapping batches, the new estimators have roughly the same bias but smaller variance. In addition, these estimators can be computed with order-of-sample-size work.     

Comparisons among some estimators in misspecified linear models with multicollinearity

In this paper we deal with comparisons among several estimators available in situations of multicollinearity (e.g., the r-k class estimator proposed by Baye and Parker, the ordinary ridge regression (ORR) estimator, the principal components regression (PCR) estimator and also the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator) for a misspecified linear model where misspecification is due to omission of some relevant explanatory variables. These comparisons are made in terms of the mean square error (mse) of the estimators of regression coefficients as well as of the predictor of the conditional mean of the dependent variable. It is found that under the same conditions as in the true model, the superiority of the r-k class estimator over the ORR, PCR and OLS estimators and those of the ORR and PCR estimators over the OLS estimator remain unchanged in the misspecified model. Only in the case of comparison between the ORR and PCR estimators, no definite conclusion regarding the mse dominance of one over the other in the misspecified model can be drawn.     

Bayes minimax estimators of the mean of a scale mixture of multivariate normal distributions

Bayes estimation of the mean of a variance mixture of multivariate normal distributions is considered under sum of squared errors loss. We find broad class of priors (also in the variance mixture of normal class) which result in proper and generalized Bayes minimax estimators. This paper extends the results of Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264] in a manner similar to that of Maruyama [Admissible minimax estimators of a mean vector of scale mixtures of multivariate normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 21 (2003) 69-78] but somewhat more in the spirit of Fourdrinier et al. [On the construction of bayes minimax estimators, Ann. Statist. 26 (1998) 660-671] for the normal case, in the sense that we construct classes of priors giving rise to minimaxity. A feature of this paper is that in certain cases we are able to construct proper Bayes minimax estimators satisfying the properties and bounds in Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264]. We also give some insight into why Strawderman's results do or do not seem to apply in certain cases. In cases where it does not apply, we give minimax estimators based on Berger's [Minimax estimation of location vectors for a wide class of densities, Ann. Statist. 3 (1975) 1318-1328] results. A main condition for minimaxity is that the mixing distributions of the sampling distribution and the prior distribution satisfy a monotone likelihood ratio property with respect to a scale parameter.     

Robust residual‐ and recovery‐based a posteriori error estimators for interface problems with flux jumps

For elliptic interface problems with flux jumps, this article studies robust residual‐ and recovery‐based a posteriori error estimators for the conforming finite element approximation. The residual estimator is a natural extension of that developed in [Bernardi and Verfürth, Numer Math 85 (2000), 579–608; Petzoldt, Adv Comp Math 16 (2002), 47–75], and the recovery estimator is a nontrivial extension of our method developed in Cai and Zhang, SIAM J Numer Anal 47 (2009) 2132–2156. It is shown theoretically that reliability and efficiency bounds of these error estimators are independent of the jumps provided that the distribution of the coefficients is locally monotone. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 28:476–491, 2012     

Credibility estimators with geometric weights

In the present paper we study credibility estimators with geometric weights in the framework of experience rating in motor insurance. We discuss how to find optimal weights. The estimators are compared with the traditional credibility estimators and shown to be more robust against a certain type of violations against the model assumptions. We also discuss advantages and disadvantages relative to ordinary bonus—malus systems.     

Asymptotic properties of estimators of interclass correlation from familial data

Summary Asymptotic properties of several estimators of interclass correlation from familial data are examined in the case of a variable number of siblings per family. After showing that the usual sib-mean estimator is not consistent, a modified sib-mean estimator is proposed. Asymptotic distributions of estimators are derived and a test procedure is provided for a certain testing problem concerning interclass correlation. Several estimators are compared in the various mean number of siblings per family, using asymptotic mean square errors. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

Large and moderate deviations principles for kernel estimators of the multivariate regression

In this paper, we prove large deviations principle for the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and for the semi-recursive kernel estimator of the regression in the multidimensional case. Under suitable conditions, we show that the rate function is a good rate function. We thus generalize the results already obtained in the one-dimensional case for the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Moreover, we give a moderate deviations principle for these two estimators. It turns out that the rate function obtained in the moderate deviations principle for the semi-recursive estimator is larger than the one obtained for the Nadaraya-Watson estimator.      

Minimax and admissible minimax estimators of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution for unknown covariance matrix

Let X be a p-variate (p ≥ 3) vector normally distributed with mean μ and covariance Σ, and let A be a p × p random matrix distributed independent of X, according to the Wishart distribution W(n, Σ). For estimating μ, we consider estimators of the form δ = δ(X, A). We obtain families of Bayes, minimax and admissible minimax estimators with respect to the quadratic loss function (δ ? μ)′ Σ^?1(δ ? μ) where Σ is unknown. This paper extends previous results of the author [1], given for the case in which the covariance matrix of the distribution is of the form σ²I, where σ is known.     

On an estimator in T3-class of linear estimators in sampling with varying probabilities from a finite population

Summary Horvitz and Thompson [4] introduced three classes of linear estimators for estimation of population characteristics on the basis of a sample drawn with varying probabilities and without replacement. TheirT ₃-class of estimators does not admit a best unbiased estimator. In this paper, the variance and an unbiased estimate of variance for an estimator in T₃-class, which is proved to have several good properties by Godambe [2], [3], are derived for sampling with varying probabilities with or without replacement.     

Admissibility of linear estimators with respect to inequality constraints under some loss functions

In this paper, we study the issue of admissibility of linear estimated functions of parameters in the multivariate linear model with respect to inequality constraints under a matrix loss and a matrix balanced loss. Under the matrix loss, when the model is not constrained, the results in the class of non-homogeneous linear estimators [Xie, 1989, Chinese Sci. Bull., 1148–1149; Xie, 1993, J. Multivariate Anal., 1071–1074] showed that the admissibility under the matrix loss and the trace loss is equivalent. However, when the model is constrained by the inequality constraints, we find this equivalency is not tenable, our result shows that the admissibility of linear estimator does not depend on the constraints again under this matrix loss, but it is contrary under the trace loss [Wu, 2008, Linear Algebra Appl., 2040–2048], and it is also relative to the constraints under another matrix loss [He, 2009, Linear Algebra Appl., 241–250]. Under the matrix balanced loss, the necessary and sufficient conditions that the linear estimators are admissible in the class of homogeneous and non-homogeneous linear estimators are obtained, respectively. These results will support the theory of admissibility on the linear model with inequality constraints.     

Some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the MEM(1,1)

In this paper, we extend the closed form moment estimator (ordinary MCFE) for the autoregressive conditional duration model given by Lu et al (2016) and propose some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the multiplicative error model to deal with the additive and innovational outliers. The robustification of the closed form estimator is done by replacing the sample mean and sample autocorrelation with some robust estimators. These estimators are more robust than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) often used to estimate this model, and they are easy to implement and do not require the use of any numerical optimization procedure and the choice of initial value. The performance of our proposal in estimating the parameters and forecasting conditional mean μ_t of the MEM(1,1) process is compared with the proposals existing in the literature via Monte Carlo experiments, and the results of these experiments show that our proposal outperforms the ordinary MCFE, QMLE, and least absolute deviation estimator in the presence of outliers in general. Finally, we fit the price durations of IBM stock with the robust closed form estimators and the benchmarks and analyze their performances in estimating model parameters and forecasting the irregularly spaced intraday Value at Risk.     

Generalized variance estimators in the multivariate gamma models

It is already known that the uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimator of the generalized variance always exists for any natural exponential family. However, in practice, this estimator is often difficult to obtain. This paper provides explicit forms of the UMVU estimators for the bivariate and symmetric multivariate gamma models, which are diagonal quadratic exponential families. For the non-independent multivariate gamma models, it is shown that the UMVU and the maximum likelihood estimators are not proportional.      

Error estimators for stiff differential equations

When solving ordinary differential equations numerically, the local error is estimated at each step. In the classical situation of ‘small’ step sizes, it is clear what is required of the error estimators. Stiff problems are solved with ‘large’ step sizes. The quality of error estimators is studied in this situatuion, and it is shown how to modify unsatisfactory estimators so as to improve them greatly. Several formulas from the literature are treated as examples.