A method for analysis of linear dynamic systems driven by stationary non-Gaussian noise with applications to turbulence-induced random vibration

A method is developed for approximating the properties of the state of a linear dynamic system driven by a broad class of non-Gaussian noise, namely, by polynomials of filtered Gaussian processes. The method involves four steps. First, the mean and correlation functions of the state of the system are calculated from those of the input noise. Second, higher order moments of the state are calculated based on Itô’s formula for continuous semimartingales. It is shown that equations governing these moments are closed, so that moment of any order of the state can be calculated exactly. Third, a conceptually simple technique, which resembles the Galerkin method for solving differential equations, is proposed for constructing approximations for the marginal distribution of the state from its moments. Fourth, translation models are calibrated to representations of the marginal distributions of the state as well as its second moment properties. The resulting models can then be utilized to estimate properties of the state, such as the mean rate at which the state exits a safe set. The implementation of the proposed method is demonstrated by numerous examples, including the turbulence-induced random vibration of a flexible plate.     

Imprecise random variables,random sets,and Monte Carlo simulation

The paper addresses the evaluation of upper and lower probabilities induced by functions of an imprecise random variable. Given a function g and a family $X_{\lambda }$ of random variables, where the parameter λ ranges in an index set Λ, one may ask for the upper/lower probability that $g(X_{\lambda })$ belongs to some Borel set B. Two interpretations are investigated. In the first case, the upper probability is computed as the supremum of the probabilities that $g(X_{\lambda })$ lies in B. In the second case, one considers the random set generated by all $g(X_{\lambda })$, $\lambda \in \mathrm{\Lambda }$, e.g. by transforming $X_{\lambda }$ to standard normal as a common probability space, and computes the corresponding upper probability. The two results are different, in general. We analyze this situation and highlight the implications for Monte Carlo simulation. Attention is given to efficient simulation procedures and an engineering application is presented.     

A note on random walks with absorbing barriers and sequential Monte Carlo methods

In this article, we consider importance sampling (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in the context of one-dimensional random walks with absorbing barriers. In particular, we develop a very precise variance analysis for several IS and SMC procedures. We take advantage of some explicit spectral formulae available for these models to derive sharp and explicit estimates; this provides stability properties of the associated normalized Feynman–Kac semigroups. Our analysis allows one to compare the variance of SMC and IS techniques for these models. The work in this article is one of the few to consider an in-depth analysis of an SMC method for a particular model-type as well as variance comparison of SMC algorithms.     

Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods for a class of stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints

In this paper, we consider a class of stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints introduced by Birbil et al. (Math Oper Res 31:739–760, 2006). Firstly, by means of a Monte Carlo method, we obtain a nonsmooth discrete approximation of the original problem. Then, we propose a smoothing method together with a penalty technique to get a standard nonlinear programming problem. Some convergence results are established. Moreover, since quasi-Monte Carlo methods are generally faster than Monte Carlo methods, we discuss a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach as well. Furthermore, we give an example in economics to illustrate the model and show some numerical results with this example. The first author’s work was supported in part by the Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and SRF for ROCS, SEM. The second author’s work was supported in part by the United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant. The third author’s work was supported in part by the Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.     

Noisy Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Doubly Intractable Distributions

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician’s toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis–Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented state space with transitions based on a deterministic differential flow derived from Hamiltonian mechanics. In practice, the evolution of Hamiltonian systems cannot be solved analytically, requiring numerical integration schemes. Under numerical integration, the resulting approximate solution no longer preserves the measure of the target distribution, therefore an accept–reject step is used to correct the bias. For doubly intractable distributions—such as posterior distributions based on Gibbs random fields—HMC suffers from some computational difficulties: computation of gradients in the differential flow and computation of the accept–reject proposals poses difficulty. In this article, we study the behavior of HMC when these quantities are replaced by Monte Carlo estimates. Supplemental codes for implementing methods used in the article are available online.     

On a Monte Carlo method for neutron transport criticality computations

^** Email: maire{at}univ-tln.fr^*** Email: denis.talay{at}sophia.inria.fr We give a stochastic representation of the principal eigenvalueof some homogeneous neutron transport operators. Our constructionis based upon the Feynman–Kac formula for integral transportequations, and uses probabilistic techniques only. We developa Monte Carlo method for criticality computations. We numericallytest this method on various homogeneous and inhomogeneous problems,and compare our results with those obtained by standard methods.     

Regular multigraphs and their application to the Monte Carlo evaluation of moments of non-linear functions of Gaussian random variables

This paper expands on the multigraph method for expressing moments of non-linear functions of Gaussian random variables. In particular, it includes a list of regular multigraphs that is needed for the computation of some of these moments. The multigraph method is then used to evaluate numerically the moments of non-Gaussian self-similar processes. These self-similar processes are of interest in various applications and the numerical value of their marginal moments yield qualitative information about the behavior of the probability tails of their marginal distributions.     

Monte Carlo method via a numerical algorithm to solve a parabolic problem

This paper is intended to provide a numerical algorithm consisted of the combined use of the finite difference method and Monte Carlo method to solve a one-dimensional parabolic partial differential equation. The numerical algorithm is based on the discretize governing equations by finite difference method. Due to the application of the finite difference method, a large sparse system of linear algebraic equations is obtained. An approach of Monte Carlo method is employed to solve the linear system. Numerical tests are performed in order to show the efficiency and accuracy of the present work.     

A Monte Carlo Method for the Simulation of First Passage Times of Diffusion Processes

A reliable Monte Carlo method for the evaluation of first passage times of diffusion processes through boundaries is proposed. A nested algorithm that simulates the first passage time of a suitable tied-down process is introduced to account for undetected crossings that may occur inside each discretization interval of the stochastic differential equation associated to the diffusion. A detailed analysis of the performances of the algorithm is then carried on both via analytical proofs and by means of some numerical examples. The advantages of the new method with respect to a previously proposed numerical-simulative method for the evaluation of first passage times are discussed. Analytical results on the distribution of tied-down diffusion processes are proved in order to provide a theoretical justification of the Monte Carlo method.     

Modifications of weighted Monte Carlo algorithms for nonlinear kinetic equations

Test problems for the nonlinear Boltzmann and Smoluchowski kinetic equations are used to analyze the efficiency of various versions of weighted importance modeling as applied to the evolution of multiparticle ensembles. For coagulation problems, a considerable gain in computational costs is achieved via the approximate importance modeling of the “free path” of the ensemble combined with the importance modeling of the index of a pair of interacting particles. A weighted modification of the modeling of the initial velocity distribution was found to be the most efficient for model solutions to the Boltzmann equation. The technique developed can be useful as applied to real-life coagulation and relaxation problems for which the model problems considered give approximate solutions.     

Study of weighted Monte Carlo algorithms with branching

Various weighted algorithms for numerical statistical simulation are formulated and studied. The trajectory of an algorithm branches when the current weighting factor exceeds unity. As a result, the weight of an individual branch does not exceed unity and the variance of the estimate for the computed functional is finite. The unbiasedness and finiteness of the variance of estimates are analyzed using the recurrence “partial“ averaging method formulated in this study. The estimation of the particle reproduction factor and solutions to the Helmholtz equation are considered as applications. The comparative complexity of the algorithms is examined using a test problem. The variances of weighted algorithms with branching as applied to integral equations with power nonlinearity are analyzed.     

Discrete stochastic consistent estimators of the Monte Carlo method

The efficiency of discrete stochastic consistent estimators (the weighted uniform sampling and estimator with a correcting multiplier) of the Monte Carlo method is investigated. Confidence intervals and upper bounds on the variances are obtained, and the computational cost of the corresponding discrete stochastic numerical scheme is estimated.     

Weighted Monte Carlo method for an approximate solution of the nonlinear coagulation equation

New weighted modifications of direct statistical simulation methods designed for the approximate solution of the nonlinear Smoluchowski equation are developed on the basis of stratification of the interaction distribution in a multiparticle system according to the index of a pair of interacting particles. The weighted algorithms are validated for a model problem with a known solution. It is shown that they effectively estimate variations in the functionals with varying parameters, in particular, with the initial number N ₀ of particles in the simulating ensemble. The computations performed for the problem with a known solution confirm the semiheuristic hypothesis that the model error is O(N ₀ ^?1 ). Estimates are derived for the derivatives of the approximate solution with respect to the coagulation coefficient.     

A Multiscale Multilevel Monte Carlo Method for Multiscale Elliptic PDEs with Random Coefficients

We propose a multiscale multilevel Monte Carlo(MsMLMC) method to solve multiscale elliptic PDEs with random coefficients in the multi-query setting. Our method consists of offline and online stages. In the offline stage,we construct a small number of reduced basis functions within each coarse grid block, which can then be used to approximate the multiscale finite element basis functions. In the online stage, we can obtain the multiscale finite element basis very efficiently on a coarse grid by using the pre-computed multiscale basis.The MsMLMC method can be applied to multiscale RPDE starting with a relatively coarse grid, without requiring the coarsest grid to resolve the smallestscale of the solution. We have performed complexity analysis and shown that the MsMLMC offers considerable savings in solving multiscale elliptic PDEs with random coefficients. Moreover, we provide convergence analysis of the proposed method. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method for several multiscale stochastic problems without scale separation.     

Branching diffusion representation of semi-linear elliptic PDEs and estimation using Monte Carlo method

We study semi-linear elliptic PDEs with polynomial non-linearity in bounded domains and provide a probabilistic representation of their solution using branching diffusion processes. When the non-linearity involves the unknown function but not its derivatives, we extend previous results in the literature by showing that our probabilistic representation provides a solution to the PDE without assuming its existence. In the general case, we derive a new representation of the solution by using marked branching diffusion processes and automatic differentiation formulas to account for the non-linear gradient term. We consider several examples and estimate their solution by using the Monte Carlo method.     

Dominant eigenvalue problem for positive integral operators and its solution by Monte Carlo method

In this paper, a method of numerical solution to the dominant eigenvalue problem for positive integral operators is presented. This method is based on results of the theory of positive operators developed by Krein and Rutman. The problem is solved by Monte Carlo method constructing random variables in such a way that differences between results obtained and the exact ones would be arbitrarily small. Some numerical results are shown.     

Green's functions for elliptic and parabolic equations with random coefficients II

This paper is concerned with linear parabolic partial differential equations in divergence form and their discrete analogues. It is assumed that the coefficients of the equation are stationary random variables, random in both space and time. The Green's functions for the equations are then random variables. Regularity properties for expectation values of Green's functions are obtained. In particular, it is shown that the expectation value is a continuously differentiable function in the space variable whose derivatives are bounded by the corresponding derivatives of the Green's function for the heat equation. Similar results are obtained for the related finite difference equations. This paper generalises results of a previous paper which considered the case when the coefficients are constant in time but random in space.

     

Global optimization by random perturbation of the gradient method with a fixed parameter

The paper deals with the global minimization of a differentiable cost function mapping a ball of a finite dimensional Euclidean space into an interval of real numbers. It is established that a suitable random perturbation of the gradient method with a fixed parameter generates a bounded minimizing sequence and leads to a global minimum: the perturbation avoids convergence to local minima. The stated results suggest an algorithm for the numerical approximation of global minima: experiments are performed for the problem of fitting a sum of exponentials to discrete data and to a nonlinear system involving about 5000 variables. The effect of the random perturbation is examined by comparison with the purely deterministic gradient method.     

Efficient implementation of the Barnes-Hut octree algorithm for Monte Carlo simulations of charged systems

Computer simulation with Monte Carlo is an important tool to investigate the function and equilibrium properties of many biological and soft matter materials solvable in solvents.The appropriate treatment of long-range electrostatic interaction is essential for these charged systems,but remains a challenging problem for large-scale simulations.We develop an efficient Barnes-Hut treecode algorithm for electrostatic evaluation in Monte Carlo simulations of Coulomb many-body systems.The algorithm is based on a divide-and-conquer strategy and fast update of the octree data structure in each trial move through a local adjustment procedure.We test the accuracy of the tree algorithm,and use it to perform computer simulations of electric double layer near a spherical interface.It is shown that the computational cost of the Monte Carlo method with treecode acceleration scales as log N in each move.For a typical system with ten thousand particles,by using the new algorithm,the speed has been improved by two orders of magnitude from the direct summation.