An analytic solution for multi-period uncertain portfolio selection problem

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making - The return rates of risky assets in financial markets are usually assumed as random variables or fuzzy variables. For the ever-changing real asset market,...     

Optimal project portfolio selection with carryover constraint

In a typical capital rationing problem, a project portfolio is selected to maximize expected return on investment while adhering to the capital budget constraint. Sometimes projects may be delayed and they have to be funded beyond their planned completion time. This type of ‘unplanned carryovers’ represents a financial obligation to the company. If future years' capital budgets cannot be expanded to cover such obligations, future projects may be cancelled or postponed to fund the unplanned carryover. In this paper, we develop a methodology based on multi-attribute utility theory and chance-constrained programming to optimize portfolio selection subject to the constraints that the selected portfolio does not exceed the available budget and that the carryover of the unspent funds to the next fiscal year does not exceed predetermined limits. We use this technique to select an optimal project portfolio for Lockheed Martin Space Systems' infrastructure investments.     

Mean-risk model for uncertain portfolio selection

This paper discusses the uncertain portfolio selection problem when security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data. It is proposed that uncertain variable should be used to reflect the experts’ subjective estimation of security returns. Regarding the security returns as uncertain variables, the paper introduces a risk curve and develops a mean-risk model. In addition, the crisp form of the model is provided. The presented numerical examples illustrate the application of the mean-risk model and show the disaster result of mistreating uncertain returns as random returns.     

On interval portfolio selection problem

The future returns of each securities cannot be correctly reflected by the data in the past, therefore the expert’s judgements and experiences should be considered to estimate the security returns for the future. In this paper, we propose an interval portfolio selection model in which both the returns and the risks of assets are defined as intervals. By using interval and convex analysis, we solve this model and get the noninferior solution. Finally, an example is given to illustrate our results. The interval portfolio selection model improves and generalizes the Markowitz’s mean-variance model and the results of Deng et al. (Eur J Oper Res 166(1):278–292, 2005).     

Multi-period supplier selection under price uncertainty

We consider a problem faced by a procurement manager who needs to purchase a large volume of multiple items over multiple periods from multiple suppliers that provide base prices and discounts. Discounts are contingent on meeting various conditions on total volume or spend, and some are tied to future realizations of random events that can be mutually verified. We formulate a scenario-based multi-stage stochastic optimization model that allows us to consider random events such as a drop in price because of the most favoured customer clauses, a price change in the spot market or a new discount offer. We propose certainty-equivalent heuristics and evaluate the regret of using them. We use our model for three bidding events of a large manufacturing company. The results show that considering most favored customer clauses in supplier offers may create substantial savings that may surpass the savings from regular discount offers.     

Mean-risk portfolio management with bankruptcy prohibition

In accordance with Solvency II, the commonly tightened government regulation on insurance cooperations, they have been obligated to take conservative investment strategies such as those ruling out the possibility of bankruptcy. With this in mind, in this article, we aim to continue our work (Wong et al., 2017a,b) . First, we study the solvability of mean-risk portfolio optimization problem with bankruptcy prohibition, in the complete market in which the investor aims to maximize the expected payoff and to minimize the deviation risk simultaneously, which is of great use in the insurance paradigm. Secondly, we also provide the original weak convergence result of the optimal terminal wealth of a sequence of approximate markets to that of the limiting market through their corresponding pricing kernels. As a result, we establish an effective numerical algorithm calibrating the optimal terminal wealth under Black–Scholes models by that of binomial tree models. The results of our numerical simulations indicate that the downside risk of the optimal payoff can be effectively reduced by imposing the bankruptcy prohibition.     

带投资约束且p不确定的推广p-中位问题

p-中位问题是设施选址中的一个经典模型,在交通、物流等领域有着广泛应用．在经典p-中位问题的基础上提出一种p不确定的推广p-中位问题,并且加上总投资约束,使得此推广模型更加实用．针对此推广模型,提出三种启发式算法：简单启发式算法、变邻域搜索算法和改进的遗传算法．数值实验结果表明变邻域搜索算法和改进的遗传算法在求解此推广模型时是有效的．     

Robust portfolio selection with uncertain exit time using worst-case VaR strategy

To deal with the robust portfolio selection problem where only partial information on the exit time distribution and on the conditional distribution of portfolio return is available, we extend the worst-case VaR approach and formulate the corresponding problems as semi-definite programs. Moreover, we present some numerical results with real market data.     

Optimal portfolio choice under a liability constraint

The problem of characterizing the least expensive bond portfolio that enables one to meet his/her liability to pay C dollars K years from now is dealt with in this article. Bond prices are allowed to be either overpriced or underpriced at the purchase time, while at the sale time the bonds are suppose to be fairly priced. Assuming shifts in spot rates to occur instantly after the acquisition of a bond portfolio Z and to follow fairly general type of behavior described by the condition (2), we give both necessary and sufficient conditions for Z to solve the immunization problem above. Our model is general enough to cover situations with twists in the yield curve. Making use of the K-T conditions, we explain in remark 7 why we focus on search of an optimal portfolio in the class of barbell strategies. Finally, by means of the K-T conditions we find an optimal bond portfolio which solves the immunization problem. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multi-stage portfolio selection problem with dynamic stochastic dominance constraints

We study the multi-stage portfolio selection problem where the utility function of an investor is ambiguous. The ambiguity is characterized by dynamic stochastic dominance constraints, which are able to capture the dynamics of the random return sequence during the investment process. We propose a multi-stage dynamic stochastic dominance constrained portfolio selection model, and use a mixed normal distribution with time-varying weights and the K-means clustering technique to generate a scenario tree for the transformation of the proposed model. Based on the scenario tree representation, we derive two linear programming approximation problems, using the sampling approach or the duality theory, which provide an upper bound approximation and a lower bound approximation for the original nonconvex problem. The upper bound is asymptotically tight with infinitely many samples. Numerical results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed new model and solution techniques.

     

Mean-chance model for portfolio selection based on uncertain measure

This paper discusses a portfolio selection problem in which security returns are given by experts’ evaluations instead of historical data. A factor method for evaluating security returns based on experts’ judgment is proposed and a mean-chance model for optimal portfolio selection is developed taking transaction costs and investors’ preference on diversification and investment limitations on certain securities into account. The factor method of evaluation can make good use of experts’ knowledge on the effects of economic environment and the companies’ unique characteristics on security returns and incorporate the contemporary relationship of security returns in the portfolio. The use of chance of portfolio return failing to reach the threshold can help investors easily tell their tolerance toward risk and thus facilitate a decision making. To solve the proposed nonlinear programming problem, a genetic algorithm is provided. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a numerical example is also presented.     

The mean-absolute deviation portfolio selection problem with interval-valued returns

In real-world investments, one may care more about the future earnings than the current earnings of the assets. This paper discusses the uncertain portfolio selection problem where the asset returns are represented by interval data. Since the parameters are interval valued, the gain of returns is interval valued as well. According to the concept of the mean-absolute deviation function, we construct a pair of two-level mathematical programming models to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the investment return of the portfolio selection problem. Using the duality theorem and applying the variable transformation technique, the pair of two-level mathematical programs is transformed into a conventional one-level mathematical program. Solving the pair of mathematical programs produces the interval of the portfolio return of the problem. The calculated results conform to an essential idea in finance and economics that the greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on the greater the potential return.     

An incremental bundle method for portfolio selection problem under second-order stochastic dominance

Numerical Algorithms - We propose a preconditioner to accelerate the convergence of the GMRES iterative method for solving the system of linear equations obtained from discretize-then-optimize...     

A global optimization problem in portfolio selection

This paper deals with the issue of buy-in thresholds in portfolio optimization using the Markowitz approach. Optimal values of invested fractions calculated using, for instance, the classical minimum-risk problem can be unsatisfactory in practice because they lead to unrealistically small holdings of certain assets. Hence we may want to impose a discrete restriction on each invested fraction y _i such as y _i >  y _min or y _i =  0. We shall describe an approach which uses a combination of local and global optimization to determine satisfactory solutions. The approach could also be applied to other discrete conditions—for instance when assets can only be purchased in units of a certain size (roundlots).     

Optimal consumption and portfolio selection with quadratic utility and a subsistence consumption constraint

In this article, we analyze the optimal consumption and investment policy of an agent who has a quadratic felicity function and faces a subsistence consumption constraint. The agent's optimal investment in the risky asset increases linearly for low wealth levels. Risk taking continues to increase at a decreasing rate for wealth levels higher than subsistence wealth until it hits a maximum at a certain wealth level, and declines for wealth levels above this threshold. Further, the agent has a bliss level of consumption, since if an agent consumes more than this level she will suffer utility loss. Eventually her risk taking becomes zero at a wealth level which supports her bliss consumption.     

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean–variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.     

A solid transportation problem with mixed constraint in different environment

In this paper, we have introduced a Solid Transportation Problem where the constrains are mixed type. The model is developed under different environment like, crisp, fuzzy and intuitionistic fuzzy etc. Using the interval approximation method we defuzzify the fuzzy amount and for intuitionistic fuzzy set we use the ($\alpha,\beta$)-cut sets to get the corresponding crisp amount. To find the optimal transportation units a time and space based with order of convergence $O (MN^2)$ meta-heuristic Genetic Algorithm have been proposed. Also the equivalent crisp model so obtained are solved by using LINGO 13.0. The results obtained using GA treats as the best solution by comparing with LINGO results for this present study. The proposed models and techniques are finally illustrated by providing numerical examples. Degree of efficiency have been find out for both the algorithm.     

An interval portfolio selection problem based on regret function

Recent mergers in the banking industry have often generated disappointing shareholder returns. Delays in implementing potential operating savings and realizing benefits of scale economies may be one reason these mergers have disappointing returns. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), we analyze a 200-branch network formed in a merger of four banks. The operating efficiency of each branch is benchmarked against “best-practice” branches in the combined merged bank as well as “best practice” branches within each pre-merger bank. This analysis identified opportunities to reduce branch operating costs by 22 percent for the entire merged bank. In contrast, the cost savings opportunity is under seven percent when analyzed within each pre-merger bank.These findings suggest benchmarking across the entire merged bank to identify the best practices bank-wide can generate added savings. However, in this bank merger, these merger benefits were not realized until four years after the merger. Interviews with key players in the merged bank indicate that the bank deferred realizing these benefits because of political pressures, personnel integration issues, system integration issues, and financial components of the merger such as restructuring reserves and the purchase price. These causes suggest areas where shareholders can and should demand more rapid improvement in performance of bank mergers and areas for future corporate merger research.