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近年来, 临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋向于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力. 本文基于临界慢化的理念, 着重研究不同噪声影响下, 气候突变前兆信号出现的时间; 对含有不同噪声的气温观测资料、太平洋年代际振荡指数以及阿留申低压强度资料进行处理, 研究突变的前兆信号. 以20世纪70年代末80年代初这次气候突变为例, 分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数. 结果表明, 临界慢化现象出现在具有不同信噪比的资料中, 这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个前兆信号, 并且噪声对气候突变前兆信号的检测结果影响较小, 从而论证了临界慢化现象检测突变前兆信号的可靠性, 为该方法在实际观测资料中的广泛应用提供了实验基础. 相似文献
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近年来,临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力.基于临界慢化的理念,研究了气候突变的早期预警信号.针对20世纪70年代末80年代初的气候突变,对全国月平均温度资料和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数进行分析,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数.结果表明,气候发生突变前,全国月平均温度和PDO指数都存在明显的临界慢化现象,这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个早期信号.将临界慢化理论用于气候突变前兆信号的研究,对深入认识气候突变和捕捉气候突变前兆信号都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值. 相似文献
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Lyapunov 指数是标志一个系统做规则运动还是混沌运动的一个重要物理量.鉴于此, 本文利用Lyapunov指数研究系统的混沌特性, 研究气候的突变.计算结果表明, 定义法求得的Lyapunov指数是一种可靠的突变检测方法, 无论是理想序列还是实际存在突变的序列, 利用该方法都能准确地找出突变位置; 而利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数的可预报期限从理论上佐证了基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的可靠性, 通过计算各个时间段的最大Lyapunov指数能够反映系统的内在性质、研究其混沌特性. 研究结果为该方法在实际观测资料中的广泛应用提供了理论基础.
关键词:
Lyapunov指数
气候突变
前兆信号 相似文献
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研究了对称双势阱玻色-爱因斯坦凝聚体系(BEC)存在均匀噪声或高斯噪声时的自俘获现象.结果发现噪声的存在破坏了自俘获现象的临界行为特征,使得原来约瑟夫森振荡和自俘获之间的临界点变成了一个过渡区域,而且噪声强度越大,这个过渡区域展得越宽.同时发现,对于确定的相互作用强度,当噪声强度增大到一定程度时,相平面会出现混乱,如果这时固定噪声强度增大相互作用强度,相平面中的轨道会重新出现.对纯量子系统加噪声后,自俘获同样不存在临界值,而是存在一个临界区域,且随噪声的增强临界区域会展宽.与平均场近似情况下不同的是,纯量子情况下噪声促进自俘获的产生,且噪声越强自俘获越明显.
关键词:
玻色-爱因斯坦凝聚
自俘获
双势阱
噪声 相似文献
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自然界许多复杂系统的动力学结构因其受外强迫的作用, 常常会发生与人类生活密切相关的突变. 对突变做出准确预测并采取相应对策的有效途径就是检测. Fisher信息(FI)是一种能够敏锐捕捉并刻画系统变量的概率密度分布发生微小变化的量; 而当系统的动力学结构发生突变时, 来自突变前后两种不同动力学结构的数据其概率密度分布肯定会发生不同程度的改变. 基于此,本文将它用于检测和识别系统动力学结构所发生的突变, 以一种全新的思路来解决突变检测问题. 首先通过理想数据序列展示了使用FI来表征各种不同类型理想信号突变的能力. 进而应用于中国气象局国家气象信息中心“西北地区地面气候资料日值数据集”兰州站1960–2008年日平均气温资料的实际检测中, 结果表明与已有历史记载相符合, 进一步验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.
关键词:
Fisher信息
动力学结构
突变检测
概率密度分布 相似文献
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以双向环形耦合Duffing振子系统为对象, 研究脉冲信号激励下耦合振子间动力学行为变化特征时, 发现其与单向环形耦合Duffing振子系统类似, 在一定的参数条件下, 脉冲信号能引起其中一个振子与其他振子运动轨迹间出现短暂失同步的现象即瞬态同步突变现象. 基于这种现象, 提出了一种微弱脉冲信号检测的新方法, 用于检测强噪声背景中的局部放电脉冲信号. 实验测试表明, 利用本文方法对不同放电电极的局部放电脉冲信号进行检测时, 在低信噪比条件下可取得良好的检测效果, 进而扩展了现有的Duffing振子对非周期信号的检测范围及应用领域.
关键词:
耦合Duffing 振子
微弱信号检测
瞬态同步突变
局部放电脉冲信号 相似文献
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对物理学中的非线性方程——Logistic方程解的稳定性进行分析, 发现当初值和参数取值一定时, 解具有从一种稳定状态突变到另一种稳定状态的特性. 突变的程度和速度与方程的控制参数有关, 可以用定义的突变强度指数来进行描述. 利用方程解的这一特性, 构造满足动力学结构突变的理想时间序列, 模拟气候系统中的均值突变, 考察物理量回复速率和回复力在系统趋近临界阈值时的临界行为, 研究其对系统突变的早期预警能力. 本文还讨论了当系统受到噪声信号干扰时, 回复速率和回复力仍然对系统突变有较好的预警. 最后, 对太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数序列进行检测, 检测结果表明早期预警信号出现在1973年前后, 而公认的PDO指数序列的突变发生在1976/1977年, 表明回复速率和回复力在一定程度上可以作为均值突变的早期预警信号. 相似文献
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《中国物理 B》2015,(8)
In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO. 相似文献
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Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years 下载免费PDF全文
In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann-Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5-10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method. 相似文献
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Andrea Vüllings Eckehard Schöll Benjamin Lindner 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2014,87(2):1-10
Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003–2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007–2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000–2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000–2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003–2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US. 相似文献
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Fahimeh Nazarimehr Seyed Mohammad Reza Hashemi Golpayegani Boshra Hatef 《The European physical journal. Special topics》2018,227(7-9):697-705
Detection of epileptic seizures is a major challenge of these days. There are lots of papers which pay their attention to this subject. Recently, some dynamical disease with attacks such as epilepsy are considered as a system in which critical slowing down can be seen before their attacks (seizure). Although there are not many researches on the prediction of seizures using this phenomenon. Recently [P. Milanowski, P. Suffczynski, Int. J. Neural Syst. 26, 1650053 (2016)] have investigated the application of critical slowing down indicators and surprisingly they found that only in 8% of nearby 300 epileptic patients have the evidence of critical slowing down before seizures. The main goal of this paper is finding the answer of the important question “can we trust that epileptic seizures are bifurcations in the neural system”. In order to find the answer, different studies on the prediction of seizure are investigated and we prove that features which are used in those papers are critical slowing down indicators although they are not aware of it. So we present some reasons for the occurrence of critical slowing down before the seizure. We hope that this study will be a motivation of future studies on the application of critical slowing down indicators for predicting epileptic seizures. 相似文献
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快速、准确的检测气候突变, 对于我们认识气候系统的变化和对未来气候系统演变趋势的预测有着重要的现实意义和社会经济价值. 本文主要回顾了近年来非线性突变检测技术的主要研究进展及其在实际观测资料中的应用, 其中包括基于气候系统长程相关性的检测方法, 如滑动去趋势波动分析方法、滑动移除去趋势波动分析方法、滑动移除重标极差方法和指纹法等; 以及基于时间序列复杂性的检测方法, 如近似熵方法, Fisher信息和小波Fisher信息等. 此外, 本文还指出发展针对空间场的突变检测技术是未来一个可能的发展方向. 由于空间场所包含的气候系统的演变信息远高于单点时间序列, 空间场的突变检测技术将会使得对气候突变的检测时间大大缩短, 从而使得人们有足够的时间去采取行动, 以便为适应气候突变所带来的新挑战做好准备. 相似文献
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基于北半球中高纬度环流系统关联网络, 研究了冬季北半球各种遥相关年代际尺度的变化特征及其与气候突变的可能联系等. 研究结果表明, NAO, EUPA和WP 等遥相关的作用中心在1970年代中后期和1990年代初期均对应有显著的跃变过程, 且主要空间模态也发生一定的变化. 结合网络顶点度, 定义直接体现遥相关作用强弱的指数并分析其随时间的变化:1980年代以前以PNA, EUPA和WP三种模态的共同作用为主导, 1980年代以后NAO的作用显著增强, 1987年以后AO的作用显著增强, 其他模态的作用则相对较弱. 因此, 多种遥相关年代际尺度的调整可能是1970年代中后期和1990年代初期气候突变的重要表现形式之一. 相似文献
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气候变化指数是目前有关气候变化研究领域的前沿课题, 国内外在气候变化研究领域存在着许多具体指数,但关于综合指数的研究却非常少见. 本文将基于温度和降水的单一要素指数的气候变化信息进行综合, 得到一个综合气候变化指数CCI (climate change index)以评估中国近50年来的气候变化及其区域敏感性.指数大小表征气候突变前后极端气候事件的频数之差, 反映该地区应对气候变化的能力,反映该地区对气候变化的敏感性. 通过该指数可以获得多种气候变化的相关信息,从而为更好地应对极端气候事件提供判断依据. 研究结果显示,内蒙古大部、东北中部、云南以及西北中部等地CCI指数较大, 说明这些地区相对于气候突变之前极端气候事件频发. 中国各个省份中的所有站点的CCI指数平均值表明,中国江南和西南东部对气候变化不敏感; 华北和东北地区极端气候事件频发.气候变化在高纬度地区和热带、 亚热带地区表现明显,北方和西南比较敏感,而黄河以南敏感性较弱, 沿海地区由于受季风及台风带来的强降水的影响, CCI指数相对偏大,敏感性较强. 相似文献