Stochastic models for bidding strategies on oligopoly electricity market

In this paper we consider the forward/futures contracts and Asian-type call options for power delivery as important components of the bidding strategies of the players’ profits on the electricity market. We show how these derivatives can affect their profit. We use linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) and Cournot models to develop firms’ optimal bidding strategies by including forward/futures contracts and Asian-type options. We extend the methodology proposed by Niu et al. (IEEE Trans Power Syst 20(4):1859–1867, 2005), where only forward contracts for power delivery were considered in the SFE model.     

Continuous learning methods in two-buyer pricing problem

This paper presents continuous learning methods in a monopoly pricing problem where the firm has uncertainty about the buyers’ preferences. The firm designs a menu of quality-price bundles and adjusts them using only local information about the buyers’ preferences. The learning methods define different paths, and we compare how much profit the firm makes on these paths, how long it takes to learn the optimal tariff, and how the buyers’ utilities change during the learning period. We also present a way to compute the optimal path in terms of discounted profit with dynamic programming and complete information. Numerical examples show that the optimal path may involve jumps where the buyer types switch from one bundle to another, and this is a property which is difficult to include in the learning methods. The learning methods have, however, the benefit that they can be generalized to pricing problems with many buyers types and qualities.     

Joint decision on production and pricing for online dual channel supply chain system

Online dual channel supply chain system and its joint decision on production and pricing under information asymmetry are investigated. First, optimal production and pricing strategies are depicted according to the centralized system. Next, two kinds of contracts are designed for the decentralized system to coordinate the channel system, and their production and pricing decisions are depicted using a principle-agent method for the asymmetric information on the traditional channel. Finally, some interesting insights are found: the centralized system is not always being better than the decentralized system with a feasible contract if the traditional and professional retailer has lower selling cost. When uncertainty in the traditional channel information is higher, the manufacturer prefers a menu of contracts according to different channel settings. When uncertainty is lower, the manufacturer prefers a single contract. Furthermore, the higher the uncertainty in the traditional channel, the more the information welfare of the traditional retailer will gain. Performance with a menu of contracts cannot outperform that with a single contract integrating optimistic and pessimistic market setting well; their difference in performance is bigger when uncertainty in the traditional channel information is less.     

Semidefinite complementarity reformulation for robust Nash equilibrium problems with Euclidean uncertainty sets

Consider the N-person non-cooperative game in which each player’s cost function and the opponents’ strategies are uncertain. For such an incomplete information game, the new solution concept called a robust Nash equilibrium has attracted much attention over the past several years. The robust Nash equilibrium results from each player’s decision-making based on the robust optimization policy. In this paper, we focus on the robust Nash equilibrium problem in which each player’s cost function is quadratic, and the uncertainty sets for the opponents’ strategies and the cost matrices are represented by means of Euclidean and Frobenius norms, respectively. Then, we show that the robust Nash equilibrium problem can be reformulated as a semidefinite complementarity problem (SDCP), by utilizing the semidefinite programming (SDP) reformulation technique in robust optimization. We also give some numerical example to illustrate the behavior of robust Nash equilibria.     

Optimal incentive contracts under relative income concerns

We are studying in this article an interplay between workers in organizations under the assumption that workers exhibit behavioral biases: envy, jealousy, or admiration toward the other coworkers’ compensation. We assume workers care about their relative position, and we study the impact of this assumption on their efforts and on their optimal incentive contracts. We explicitly solve for the optimal incentive contract of moral hazard a la Holmstrom and Milgrom (Econometrica 55:303–328, 1987). We model team production by agents in which each agent’s effort generates an observable signal and depends on efforts of other agents. One of the important findings is that an agent’s optimal effort is negatively impacted by the behavioral biases in other agents’ judgments. We also show envious behavior is destructive for organizations. Consistent with Tirole (Econometrica 69(1):1–35, 2001), our findings suggest that in the presence of agency problems induced by envy or jealousy, the optimal compensation exhibits high pay-for-performance sensitivity.     

Optimal Supply Functions in Electricity Markets with Option Contracts and Non-smooth Costs

In this paper we investigate the optimal supply function for a generator who sells electricity into a wholesale electricity spot market and whose profit function is not smooth. In previous work in this area, the generator’s profit function has usually been assumed to be continuously differentiable. However in some interesting instances, this assumption is not satisfied. These include the case when a generator signs a one-way hedge contract before bidding into the spot market, as well as a situation in which a generator owns several generation units with different marginal costs. To deal with the non-smooth problem, we use the model of Anderson and Philpott, in which the generator’s objective function is formulated as a Stieltjes integral of the generator’s profit function along his supply curve. We establish the form of the optimal supply function when there are one-way contracts and also when the marginal cost is piecewise smooth.We would like to thank two anonymous referees for careful reading of the paper and helpful comments which lead to a significant improvement of this paper.     

A two stage stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two way contracts

This paper investigates generators’ strategic behaviors in contract signing in the forward market and power transaction in the electricity spot market. A stochastic equilibrium program with equilibrium constraints (SEPEC) model is proposed to characterize the interaction of generators’ competition in the two markets. The model is an extension of a similar model proposed by Gans et al. (Aust J Manage 23:83–96, 1998) for a duopoly market to an oligopoly market. The main results of the paper concern the structure of a Nash–Cournot equilibrium in the forward-spot market: first, we develop a result on the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market for every demand scenario. Then, we show the monotonicity and convexity of each generator’s dispatch quantity in the spot equilibrium by taking it as a function of the forward contracts. Finally, we establish some sufficient conditions for the existence of a local and global Nash equilibrium in the forward-spot markets. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate how the proposed SEPEC model can be used to analyze interactions of the markets.     

A principal–agent problem with heterogeneous demand distributions for a carbon capture and storage system

Mechanism design problems optimize contract offerings from a principal to different types of agents who have private information about their demands for a product or a service. We study the implications of uncertainty in agents’ demands on the principal’s contracts. Specifically, we consider the setting where agents’ demands follow heterogeneous distributions and the principal offers a menu of contracts stipulating quantities and transfer payments for each demand distribution. We present analytical solutions for the special case when there are two distributions each taking two discrete values, as well as a method for deriving analytical solutions from numerical solutions. We describe one application of the model in carbon capture and storage systems to demonstrate various types of optimal solutions and to obtain managerial insights.     

Employee stock ownership and diversification

A small to moderate size investment in company stock results in a relatively small increase in the riskiness of an employee’s portfolio, even if the company’s volatility is substantially greater than that of a diversified portfolio which we assume the employee would hold otherwise. Thus the employee suffers relatively little loss in “expected utility” from such an investment, whether or not the extra motivation due to this investment by the employee and his or her colleagues leads to an increase in productivity. However, increasing the investment beyond certain limits leads to substantial, and increasingly large, increments in the riskiness of the portfolio. This article presents the theory behind these assertions, and presents a plausible numerical example of the effects described. This example implies that the optimal investment in company stock in a diversified portfolio is 8\frac23%8\frac{2}{3}\% while a higher amount of ten or even fifteen percent would not be imprudent.     

Quantity discounts based on the previous order in a two-period inventory model with demand uncertainty

We examine quantity discount contracts between a manufacturer and a retailer in a stochastic, two-period inventory model. The retailer places an order in each of the two periods to meet stochastic demands. The manufacturer gives the retailer a price discount on purchases in the second period in excess of the first-period order quantity (incremental QDP) or a price discount for all units ordered in the second period if the retailer orders more in the second period than in the first period (all-units QDP). We show that the retailer's optimal ordering decision in the second period depends on the sum of initial inventory and previous order quantity. Our computational study suggests that the QDP contract induces the retailer to buy more in the second period but less in the first period, while the increase of the total order quantity may not be significant; and that it increases the manufacturer's profit only when the wholesale margin is large relative to the retail margin.     

The impact of the termination rule on cooperation in a prisoner’s dilemma experiment

Cooperation in prisoner’s dilemma games can usually be sustained only if the game has an infinite horizon. We analyze to what extent the theoretically crucial distinction of finite versus infinite-horizon games is reflected in the outcomes of a prisoner’s dilemma experiment. We compare three different experimental termination rules in four treatments: a known finite end, an unknown end, and two variants with a random termination rule (with a high and with a low continuation probability, where cooperation can occur in a subgame-perfect equilibrium only with the high probability). We find that the termination rules do not significantly affect average cooperation rates. Specifically, employing a random termination rule does not cause significantly more cooperation compared to a known finite horizon, and the continuation probability does not significantly affect average cooperation rates either. However, the termination rules may influence cooperation over time and end-game behavior. Further, the (expected) length of the game significantly increases cooperation rates. The results suggest that subjects may need at least some learning opportunities (like repetitions of the supergame) before significant backward induction arguments in finitely repeated game have force.     

Optimal Compensation with Hidden Action and Lump-Sum Payment in a Continuous-Time Model

We consider a problem of finding optimal contracts in continuous time, when the agent’s actions are unobservable by the principal, who pays the agent with a one-time payoff at the end of the contract. We fully solve the case of quadratic cost and separable utility, for general utility functions. The optimal contract is, in general, a nonlinear function of the final outcome only, while in the previously solved cases, for exponential and linear utility functions, the optimal contract is linear in the final output value. In a specific example we compute, the first-best principal’s utility is infinite, while it becomes finite with hidden action, which is increasing in value of the output. In the second part of the paper we formulate a general mathematical theory for the problem. We apply the stochastic maximum principle to give necessary conditions for optimal contracts. Sufficient conditions are hard to establish, but we suggest a way to check sufficiency using non-convex optimization.     

Equilibria of a two-stage market with chance outcome in the spot market

We address the problem of how to improve the efficiency of markets of similar goods (electric power, gas, and other resources). One way to undermine the market dominance of some companies is the possibility of forward contracts. Here a model of the spot and forward markets functioning as Curnout auctions is studied using the example of symmetrical oligopoly. Suppliers try to maximize their profit by this two-stage game’s strategies of traded subgame equilibrium (TSE). The conditions for equilibrium achieved by correlated mixed strategies are elucidated: either a “bull” or “bear” market is established according to a chance factor. The optimum strategies of rational bidders are found to depend on the reserve price and a risk-avoiding parameter. TSE is compared to the Nash equilibria for one-stage models.     

Cournot–Walras equilibrium as a subgame perfect equilibrium

In this paper, we investigate the problem of the strategic foundation of the Cournot–Walras equilibrium approach. To this end, we respecify à la Cournot–Walras the mixed version of a model of simultaneous, noncooperative exchange, originally proposed by Lloyd S. Shapley. We show, through an example, that the set of the Cournot–Walras equilibrium allocations of this respecification does not coincide with the set of the Cournot–Nash equilibrium allocations of the mixed version of the original Shapley’s model. As the nonequivalence, in a one-stage setting, can be explained by the intrinsic two-stage nature of the Cournot–Walras equilibrium concept, we are led to consider a further reformulation of the Shapley’s model as a two-stage game, where the atoms move in the first stage and the atomless sector moves in the second stage. Our main result shows that the set of the Cournot–Walras equilibrium allocations coincides with a specific set of subgame perfect equilibrium allocations of this two-stage game, which we call the set of the Pseudo–Markov perfect equilibrium allocations. We would like to thank Pierpaolo Battigalli, Marcellino Gaudenzi, and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.     

Joint pricing-servicing decision and channel strategies in the supply chain

This paper investigates the equilibrium behavior of a two-echelon supply chain in four channel strategies: (i) vertical integration, (ii) vertical Nash (iii) manufacturer’s Stackelberg and (vi) retailer’s Stackelberg. We examine the price and service level decision for each of the above four channel strategies in two cases: (i) Simultaneous service-level decision: Here, the manufacturer and retailer simultaneously choose a service level. (ii) Sequentially service-level decision: Here, the manufacturer and retailer sequentially choose a service level. We model the demand as a deterministic linear function of retailer’s price and both manufacturer’s and retailer’s service levels. We discuss the optimal configuration from each individual’s perspective for each of the above channel strategies. We show that vertical integration dominates other strategies and leads to the highest service level but lowest retail price among various channel coordination policies considered here. We yield several conclusions about the provision of service level by each supply chain individual to coordinate the channel.     

A model for standardizing human decisions concerning service-contracts management

Increased expectations of today’s customers are causing businesses to offer a variety of warranty contracts for their products. Because of the intense customer contact that takes place during the process of supporting a contract, the planning for contracts has to not only contend with the unpredictable and low demands of the service parts, but must also rely on human decision-making concerning a number of subjective factors. These subjective factors, which are related to the customer, the contract and the contracted product, have seldom been considered in the literature on inventory planning. Moreover, the evaluation of subjective factors often becomes non-standardized and non-coordinated among the geographically dispersed decision-makers of an organization, as was the situation with a Fortune 100 company’s case that motivated this paper. We propose a combination of a heuristic procedure along with the Analytical Hierarchy Process technique that has not been applied in the inventory-planning setting. We also demonstrate how a Web-based information system can be used to standardize the decision process, and discuss the implications of the system on the motivational case. Computational results are also provided to show the effectiveness of the heuristics.     

Retail service for mixed retail and E-tail channels

Together with regular retail channel, a firm can distribute products directly through Internet (referred to as an “e-tail” distribution channel). The competitive edge of the retail channel lies in more value-added services, some of which are unavailable through the e-tail channel. We consider a model mixed with retailing and e-tailing distribution channels where the service level and price decision are made, respectively, ex ante and ex post demand realizations. From the firm’s perspective of managing the two channels, we acquire the optimal decisions and characterize the effects of the demand uncertainty on the firm’s optimal retail service and expected profit. Applying stochastic comparison method, we show the firm’s retail service and profit both increase in the demand mean, and the firm profits from the increase of the convex order of the demand by decreasing his service level. Further, if the coefficient of the demand increases, we characterize that the firm benefits from it. Finally, several numerical studies are presented to gain insights.     

Oligopoly with Hyperbolic Demand: A Differential Game Approach

Convex demand functions, although commonly used in consumer theory and in accordance with a large amount of empirical evidence, are known to be problematic in the analysis of firms’ behavior; therefore, they are rarely used in oligopoly theory, due to the possible lack of concavity of the firms’ profit functions and the indeterminacy arising in the limit as marginal costs tend to zero. We investigate a dynamic oligopoly model with hyperbolic demand and sticky price, characterizing the open-loop optimal control and the related steady-state equilibrium, to show that the indeterminacy associated with the limit of the static model is indeed confined to the steady state of the dynamic model, while the latter allows for a well-behaved solution at any time during the game. Although the feedback solution cannot be analytically attained since the model is not built in linear-quadratic form, we show that analogous considerations also apply to the Bellman equation of the individual firm.     

Optimal compensation with adverse selection and dynamic actions

We consider continuous-time models in which the agent is paid at the end of the time horizon by the principal, who does not know the agent’s type. The agent dynamically affects either the drift of the underlying output process, or its volatility. The principal’s problem reduces to a calculus of variation problem for the agent’s level of utility. The optimal ratio of marginal utilities is random, via dependence on the underlying output process. When the agent affects the drift only, in the risk- neutral case lower volatility corresponds to the more incentive optimal contract for the smaller range of agents who get rent above the reservation utility. If only the volatility is affected, the optimal contract is necessarily non-incentive, unlike in the first-best case. We also suggest a procedure for finding simple and reasonable contracts, which, however, are not necessarily optimal. Research supported in part by NSF grants DMS 04-03575 and 06-31298. We would like to express our gratitude to participants of the following seminars and conferences for useful comments and suggestions: UCLA (Econ Theory), Caltech (Econ Theory), Columbia (Probability), Princeton (Fin. Engineering), U. Texas at Austin (Math Finance), Banff Workshop on Optim. Problems in Fin. Econ, Kyoto U. (Economics), UC Irvine (Probability), Cornell (Fin. Engineering), Bachelier Seminar. Moreover, we are very grateful to the anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. The remaining errors are the authors’ sole responsibility.     

Analysis of a dual-sourcing service provision game with symmetric and asymmetric vendors

This paper models a service provision game between two vendors under symmetric and asymmetric cost structures, who compete in first-period service quality levels with each other, with the aim of winning the larger share of the buyer’s fixed reward in the second period. This game differs from the previous studies in that the buyer maintains dual sourcing over two periods and thus has different characteristics. We show that this service provision game has distinct mixed-strategy equilibria with the vendors under symmetric and asymmetric cost structures. We find that the larger the winner’s share in the second period, the higher the vendors’ first-period service quality levels. However, increasing the winner’s share in the second period does not necessarily benefit the vendor with the lower marginal cost, but surely hurts the equilibrium profit of the vendor with the higher marginal cost.