改进Vague集评价方法在IT项目经理评价中的应用

针对Vague集评价过程中信息容易遗失的问题,提出采用Vague综合评价的思想进行计算.通过定义Vague基本运算法则,以及建立加权综合评价函数构建了新的评价方法.方法体现了Vague集理论描述不确定性问题的优点,反映了项目经理评价的一般特点.最后,通过案例计算,得到了公平公正的评价结果,并验证了计算结果的可靠性.     

基于TOPSIS思想的技术创新方案的Vague集评价方法及其应用

为了得到理想的技术创新选择方案,论文从技术创新的实际出发,从实力、潜力和外部环境三个角度选择了一组反映技术创新项目实际情况的评价指标。并借助Vague集理论,通过TOPSIS中正负理想解的思想定义了任意创新方案的评价指标值,运用Vague集理论中距离的概念构建了新的评价方法,进而得到了满意的评价结果。该方法一方面体现了Vague集理论描述不确定性问题的优点,另一方面借助TOPSIS思想满足了方案评价的基本准则。这一思想和方法的提出不仅为Vague集理论研究提供了新的应用领域,也为技术创新的研究提供了新的思路和方法。     

软件质量评估的Vague集方法应用研究

通过回顾软件质量评估领域的研究现状,分析了采用Vague集方法进行评价的可能性.提出在定性评价的基础上,借助定性指标向Vague值得转化,通过构建加权综合评价函数的方法实现了Vague集的软件质量评估.最后,通过案例计算,得到了公平公正的评价结果,并验证了计算结果的可靠性.     

基于Vague集思想的电子产品可靠性评价

针对电子产品可靠性评价中存在的问题,将Vague集理论引入到评价环节.通过指标选取、权重确定、Vague加权集结、记分函数计算等四个环节的计算,剔除了可靠性评价中的不确定性信息.方法体现了Vague集理论描述不确定性问题的优点,反映了电子产品可靠性评价的一般特点,得到了公平公正的评价结果,方法的应用具有一定推广价值.     

基于不确定方法的项目方案优选研究

典型的Vague集Topsis评价中以[1,1]和[0,0]作为正负理想解,认为这种选择方法会造成待评价方案不确定信息的丢失,影响待评价方案的区分度低.进而提出通过方案Vague值的横向比较获取正负理想解的方法,并通过实际案例验证了方法的可靠性和科学性.这一方法的提出,进一步丰富了Vague集评价方法的理论,拓展了Vague集评价方法的应用空间.     

Vague指派问题的求解方法研究

Vague指派问题的特殊性在于用Vague值表述效益矩阵,进而反映了指派问题中存在的诸多不确定性和模糊性。论文根据Vague值的特点,提出了Vague指派问题的求解转化为经典指派问题思想,进而借助“马太效应”函数、特征值向量和Pareto三种方法实现问题的求解。最后,论文以参考文献中的一组数据为例,采用以上方法进行计算,得到了理想的结果。     

基于Vague集的理想解和灰色关联结合的决策方法及应用

针对当前应用Vague集在解决多指标决策问题时存有的不足,提出一种基于Vague集的理想解与灰色关联结合的新决策方法.决策方法充分利用了Vague集强大的模糊信息表达能力,并将理想解法与灰色关联法进行有机结合,实现从位置和曲线形状两方面来更全面地反映备选方案与理想解的关系.最后,通过一个并购中目标企业选择的示例说明方法的应用过程,并验证了方法的可行性和实用性.     

基于Vague集的创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价模型研究

将Vague集理论推广到创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价问题中,提出了Vague集超体积生态位的概念,并在此基础上构建了创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价模型.模型给出了基于踌躇度有序加权适宜度(π—OWA)算子的生态因子赋权方法;构建了基于Vague集的生态位最适值确定方法和适宜度评价方法.最后,通过算例验证了评价模型的有效性和可行性.     

基于证据理论和Vague集的多属性群决策方法研究

为了解决人们在复杂环境中决策困难的问题,论文基于Vague集描述不确定事物的优势,通过证据理论对Vague集进行合成,得到一种信息集结的多属性群决策方法。该算法首先考虑专家评分的可信度,在分析Vague集与证据理论的数学关系后,使用证据理论将各方案在各属性下的专家集证据集结。然后通过Vague集记分函数进行属性权重的计算,将方案集在属性集下的Vague评价值进行加权修正,再通过证据理论将属性集证据集结得到各方案最终的Vague评价值。之后使用记分函数计算每一方案的得分来确定最优方案。最后通过算例进一步说明所提方法的可行性与有效性。文章给出的算法使决策者在不确定环境下可以进行理性决策,从而选出最优方案。     

基于Vague集理论的IT项目挣值管理

挣值管理是项目管理中广泛采用的一种管理方法,论文探讨将质量管理因素纳入传统的挣值管理之中。基于质量管理中不确定因素的客观存在,论文借助Vague集理论描述项目实施过程中的不确定因素,并借助Vague值表达项目监控点各个工作包的质量达标情况。通过Vague值的基本运算规则得到项目监控点的质量达标程度,进而得到了新的挣值计算公式。论文的研究成果,一方面丰富了项目管理中挣值管理的内涵,使其具有更强的适应性,另一方面也为Vague集理论拓展了应用空间。     

基于遗传算法的项目经理评价

本文根据自然进化规则，把项目经理视为评价系统，项目经理所要满足的要求视为系统环境，用遗传算法的方法评价项目经理，力求提出一种比较客观科学的、且可以定量分析的项目经理的评价方法。     

Using Multicriteria Methods in the Early Stages of New Product Development

The R&D manager is commonly faced with the problem of deciding which projects to fund to meet overall corporate and technical goals. Because outcomes can rarely be predicted with certainty, decisions aimed at striking a balance between cost and risk are likely to involve some amount of redundancy at the project level. The intent of this paper is to examine the difficulties that arise when trying to pursue a parallel strategy in the presence of multiple objectives. The basic elements of the problem include a set of projects, a set of objectives, the associated probability measures relating effort to success, budgetary and performance constraints, and a utility function defined on the range of outcomes. In the model it will be assumed that each project contributes to one or more objectives, and that the selection criterion is based on expected utility maximization. With this in mind, the problem is formulated as a probabilistic goal programme and solved with a heuristic that computes the K best funding schemes. Results are presented for a case involving the development of a non-petroleum-powered vehicle which demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm and the implications of the underlying decision rules.     

Heuristics for a project management problem with incompatibility and assignment costs

Consider a project which consists of a set of jobs to be performed, assuming each job has a duration of at most one time period. We assume that the project manager provides a set of possible durations (in time periods) for the whole project. When a job is assigned to a specific time period, an assignment cost is encountered. In addition, for some pairs of jobs, an incompatibility cost is encountered if they are performed at the same time period. Both types of cost depend on the duration of the whole project, which also has to be determined. The goal is to assign a time period to each job while minimizing the costs. We propose a tabu search heuristic, as well as an adaptive memory algorithm, and compare them with other heuristics on large instances, and with an exact method on small instances. Variations of the problems are also discussed     

基于灰色系统理论的工程项目评标方法研究

工程项目评标实质是多目标决策问题,为优先出合适的投标单位,建立灰色Euclid理论工程项目评标决策模型.首先,运用层次分析法(AHP)与信息熵法分别确定主客观权重.然后利用博弈集结模型对指标体系进行组合赋权,得到综合权重.最后,结合工程项目评标实例运用灰色Euclid理论评标模型进行评标决策.结果表明,运用博弈集结组合赋权和灰色Euclid理论模型选出投标单位D为最优方案,与实际评标一致,验证了模型的可操作性和适用性.     

基于Fuzzy-Rough-TOPSIS的工程项目投标风险评价模型研究

在工程项目招投标阶段,项目风险评价是建筑施工企业进行投标决策和作出项目选择的重要依据.基于理想化与主客观相结合的思想,提出了一种确定风险评价指标综合权重的方法;采用梯形模糊数处理模糊性信息,并将其与粗集理论和TOPSIS(a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)方法相融合,建立了工程项目风险评价的Fuzzy-Rough-TOPSIS模型.实例运行表明,模型可操作性强,适用于多个项目的风险分析和比较,并能够在一定程度上克服以往模型存在的主观性强、应用条件限制严格等不足.     

Project selection,scheduling and resource allocation with time dependent returns

In this paper we formulate and analyze the joint problem of project selection and task scheduling. We study the situation where a manager has many alternative projects to pursue such as developing new product platforms or technologies, incremental product upgrades, or continuing education of human resources. Project return is assumed to be a known function of project completion time. Resources are limited and renewable. The objective is to maximize present worth of profit. A general mathematical formulation that can address several versions of the problem is presented. An implicit enumeration procedure is then developed and tested to provide good solutions based on project ordering and a prioritization rule for resource allocation. The algorithm uses an imbedded module for solving the resource-constrained project scheduling problem at each stage. The importance of integrating the impact of resource constraints into the selection of projects is demonstrated.     

调水工程线路方案优选的灰色系统模型及其应用

调水工程为解决区域间水资源分布不均衡问题提供了一种有效途径 .调水工程线路方案的优选问题涉及社会、经济、环境、技术等多方面的因素 ,是一个复杂的多目标决策问题 .本文建立了其评价指标体系 ,应用 AHP法和信息熵方法相结合确定评价指标权重 ,建立了调水工程线路方案优选的灰色系统评价模型 .算例显示方法的有效性 .     

Impacts of risk attitude and outside option on compensation contracts under different information structures

We consider an agency problem where a firm (she) hires a manager (he) who has related managerial expertise to implement a new project. The manager’s managerial expertise is his private information and characterized as an uncertain variable. The revenue brought about by the project in the future is also assumed to be uncertain. In light of these challenges, this paper investigates the impacts of the manager’s risk attitude and the type-and-effort dependent outside option on the optimal compensation contracts under different information structures. Through developing the manager’s decision criterion based on his risk attitude instead of the expected-utility-maximization criterion, we find that, if the manager is conservative and the outside option’s revenue uncertainty is sufficiently high, the optimal commission rate will be distorted upwards under asymmetric managerial expertise information compared with that under symmetric managerial expertise information. Our analysis also confirms that the existence of a type-and-effort dependent outside option distorts up the compensation structure tailored at a fixed outside option. We further show that, comparing with the setting of a fixed outside option when the manager is aggressive, the presence of a type-and-effort dependent outside option results in a surprising phenomenon that the manager’s private information makes no distortion of the firm’s profit.     

Efficient solutions to the cell-formation problem with multiple routings via a double-loop genetic algorithm

We present a genetic approach for finding efficient solutions to the problem of forming manufacturing cells for products having multiple routings. We consider the case where there are two criteria. The method that we propose seeks to generate the efficient set of solutions, that is the set of non-dominated solutions. The manager may then choose a solution knowing the consequences for each of the objectives. We address the computational difficulty of this problem and present a numerical example.     

基于容错机制的关键链项目缓冲差别监控研究

关键链项目缓冲监控绩效受活动自身和活动执行主体特性的双重影响,项目经理应根据不同执行主体对活动进行差别监控,而现有缓冲监控研究未充分考虑活动执行主体异质性。首先,结合网络复杂度和风险感知等活动自身因素以及综合信任度等执行主体层面因素对缓冲进行分配;其次,引入容错机制对不同活动触发点进行差别设置,并将缓冲监控分为信任型和监督型两类监控模式;最后,根据活动缓冲消耗对不同活动进行差别动态监控。蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,本文方法能够有效降低错误预警,保证项目按计划执行并实现对项目的综合优化。