混合截尾和定时截尾试验weibull分布抽样方案的比较

混合截尾试验是定时和定数截尾的一种有用的推广。本文研究了Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布和混合截尾试验的一次抽样方案,并对可靠决策损失函数给出了贝叶斯风险的显式表达式。比较陈和林的模型（１９９９）,我们得混合截尾试验的抽样方案于定时抽样方案。     

截尾试验下指数分布的贝叶斯估计

在指数分布场合，定数或定时截尾试验，文［１］给出了参数λ在先验分布为Γ（α，β）分布的假设下的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计．文［３］给出了在平方损失下的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计．本文讨论先验分布为Ｂ（ａ，ｂ）分布时，参数λ的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计．     

截尾试验下指数分布的贝叶斯估计

在指数分布场合，定数或定时截尾试验，文[1]给出了参数λ在先验分布为Г(α，β)分布的假设下的Bayes估计．文[3]给出了在平方损失下的Bayes估计,本文讨论先验分布为B(a，b)分布时，参数λ的Bayes估计。     

一般寿命分布和定时截尾的Bayes变量抽样方案

林（1994）研究了指数分布和定时截尾的变量抽样方案．本文将讨论一般寿命分布和定时截尾的一次抽样方案．在多项式损失函数的假设下,我们讨论了Weibull分布、双参数指数分布和-分布三种情形,并着重讨论Weibull分布的情形．本文还提出了一个可用于近似地确定最优抽样方案的有报算法,并且进行了灵敏度分析,还同林较早的模型（1990,1994）做了比较．     

逐步增加Ⅱ型截尾下比例危险率模型的可靠性分析

基于逐步增加Ⅱ型截尾样本,分别在均方损失和Linex损失下,利用ML-Ⅱ方法研究了比例危险率模型的参数和可靠性指标的经验Bayes估计问题。为了研究估计结果的精确性,分析了一个实际应用例子,并利用Monte-Carlo方法给出一个数值模拟例子,结果表明在非对称Linex损失下,经验Bayes估计更具灵活性,且结果更加有效。     

带有随机失落及随机增流的定时截尾试验

本文对寿命具有指数模型的产品，在定时戳尾试验同时兼有随机失落及随机增添的情形，对产品可靠性参数给出了估计方法．     

随机截尾情形下MOBVE分布的统计推断

本文讨论联合生存函数的二元指数分布（ＭＯＢＶＥ）的统计推断问题，随机截尾寿命试验下的元件和患联系统的寿命试验数据被联合作用，文中给出了参数的极大似然估计并讨论了它们的渐近性质，还得到了若干关于参数的假设的渐近检验程序。     

带有不完全信息随机截尾试验下Weibull分布参数的MLE

本文在文献（１）￣（３）的基础上坦步研究了带有不完全信息的随机截尾试验模型。讨论了Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ寿命分布参数的统计分析，给出了似然方程组即参数的极大似然估计的存在唯一性定理。文末给出了随机模拟数值解，结果表明，参数的ＭＬＥ与其真值很接近。     

定数截尾试验下两参数Weibull分布尺度参数的最优稳健Bayes估计

以Г-后验期望损失作为标准,研究了定数截尾试验下两参数W e ibu ll分布尺度参数θ的最优稳健Bayes估计问题.假设尺度参数θ的先验分布在分布族Г上变化,形状参数β已知时,在0-1损失下,得到了θ的最优稳健区间估计,在均方损失下得到θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计;β未知时,得到了θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计.最后给出了数值例子,说明了方法的有效性.     

09-0685(四次修改稿)_王亮 师义民 (逐步增加II型截尾下比例危险率模型的可靠性分析) 2010-03-05

基于逐步增加 II 型截尾样本,分别在均方损失和 Linex 损失下,利用 ML-II 方法研究了比例危险率模型的参数和可靠性指标的经验 Bayes 估计问题。为了研究估计结果的精确性,分析了一个实际应用例子,并利用 Monte-Carlo 方法给出一个数值模拟例子,结果表明在非对称 Linex 损失下,经验 Bayes 估计更具灵活性,且结果更加有效。     

Bayesian Sampling Plans for Exponential Distribution Based on Type I Censoring Data

We study variable sampling plans for the exponential distribution based on type I censoring data. Using a suitable loss function, a Bayesian variable sampling plan (n _B , t _B , _B ) is derived. For certain prior distributions and loss functions, the numerical values of the Bayesian sampling plans and the associated minimum Bayes risks are tabulated. In terms of Bayes risks, comparisons between the proposed Bayesian sampling plans (n _B , t _B , _B ) and the Bayesian variable sampling plans (n ₀, t ₀, ^L _{T 0}) of Lam (1994, Ann. Statist., 22, 696–711) have been made. The numerical results indicate that under the same conditions, the proposed Bayesian sampling plan is superior to that of Lam in the sense that the Bayes risk of (n _B , t _B , _B ) is less than that of (n ₀, t ₀, ^L _{T 0}).     

更新过程及流向图在链型抽样方案中的应用

本文首次将更新过程 ,多元转移概率流向图及多元转移概率母函数引入到链型抽样方案chsp- 1中 ,推导出链型抽样方案 chsp- 1的抽样特性函数 L(P) ,为探讨各类链型抽样方案的统计特性提供新途径     

统计决策与贝叶斯分析的实践与思考

统计决策与贝叶斯分析是一门多学科相交叉的边缘课程,具有很强的应用性.本文在对北美一流院校相关课程教学特点的描述和对比分析的基础上,结合我校理工科院校的特色,从教学内容、教学方法和实践教学三个方面系统阐述了我校在该课程教学和课程建设中的几点体会.     

Bayesian variable sampling plan for the weibull distribution with type I censoring

In this article, we study a model of a single variable sampling plan with Type I censoring. Assume that the quality of an item in a batch is measured by a random variable which follows a Weibull distributionW (λ,m), with scale parameter λ and shape parameterm having a gamma-discrete prior distribution or σ=1/λ andm having an inverse gamma-uniform prior distribution. The decision function is based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Then, the explicit expressions of the Bayes risk are derived. In addition, an algorithm is suggested so that an optimal sampling plan can be determined approximately after a finite number of searching steps.     

IIRCT下泊松分布参数多变点模型的贝叶斯估计

通过添加缺损的寿命变量数据得到了带有不完全信息随机截尾试验下泊松分布参数多变点模型的完全数据似然函数,研究了变点位置参数和其它参数的满条件分布.利用Gibbs抽样与Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合的MCMC方法对各参数的满条件分布分别进行了抽样,把Gibbs样本的均值作为各参数的贝叶斯估计,并且详细介绍了MCMC方法的实施步骤.最后进行了随机模拟试验,试验结果表明各参数贝叶斯估计的精度都较高.     

Smoothness in Bayesian Non-parametric Regression with Wavelets

Consider the classical nonparametric regression problem y_i = f(t_i) + _ii = 1,...,n where t_i = i/n, and _i are i.i.d. zero mean normal with variance ². The aim is to estimate the true function f which is assumed to belong to the smoothness class described by the Besov space B _pq ^q . These are functions belonging to L_p with derivatives up to order s, in L_p sense. The parameter q controls a further finer degree of smoothness. In a Bayesian setting, a prior on B _pq ^q is chosen following Abramovich, Sapatinas and Silverman (1998). We show that the optimal Bayesian estimator of f is then also a.s. in B _pq ^q if the loss function is chosen to be the Besov norm of B _pq ^q . Because it is impossible to compute this optimal Bayesian estimator analytically, we propose a stochastic algorithm based on an approximation of the Bayesian risk and simulated annealing. Some simulations are presented to show that the algorithm performs well and that the new estimator is competitive when compared to the more standard posterior mean.     

LQ理论在参数随机的证券投资组合套期保值中的应用

在连续时间情形、不考虑交易费用、市场无摩擦假设,以及套期保值准则等条件下,考察了参数随机的证券投资组合中加入未定权益类衍生品形成的最优动态投资策略(u*(t)),并给出了该投资组合的最优模型所对应的黎卡提(Riccati)方程的解的存在性证明.     

An extension of the usual model in statistical decision theory with applications to stochastic optimization problems

By employing fundamental results from “geometric” functional analysis and the theory of multifunctions we formulate a general model for (nonsequential) statistical decision theory, which extends Wald's classical model. From central results that hold for the model we derive a general theorem on the existence of admissible nonrandomized Bayes rules. The generality of our model makes it also possible to apply these results to some stochastic optimization problems. In an appendix we deal with the question of sufficiency reduction.