Cross-correlation dynamics in financial time series

The dynamics of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix of multivariate financial time series is explored by examination of the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. Empirical results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 indices reveal that the dynamics of the small eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix, over these time windows, oppose those of the largest eigenvalue. This behaviour is shown to be independent of the size of the time window and the number of stocks examined.A basic one-factor model is then proposed, which captures the main dynamical features of the eigenvalue spectrum of the empirical data. Through the addition of perturbations to the one-factor model, (leading to a ‘market plus sectors’ model), additional sectoral features are added, resulting in an Inverse Participation Ratio comparable to that found for empirical data. By partitioning the eigenvalue time series, we then show that negative index returns, (drawdowns), are associated with periods where the largest eigenvalue is greatest, while positive index returns, (drawups), are associated with periods where the largest eigenvalue is smallest. The study of correlation dynamics provides some insight on the collective behaviour of traders with varying strategies.     

Wavelet multiscale analysis for Hedge Funds: Scaling and strategies

The wide acceptance of Hedge Funds by Institutional Investors and Pension Funds has led to an explosive growth in assets under management. These investors are drawn to Hedge Funds due to the seemingly low correlation with traditional investments and the attractive returns. The correlations and market risk (the Beta in the Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Hedge Funds are generally calculated using monthly returns data, which may produce misleading results as Hedge Funds often hold illiquid exchange-traded securities or difficult to price over-the-counter securities. In this paper, the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) is applied to measure the scaling properties of Hedge Fund correlation and market risk with respect to the S&P 500. It is found that the level of correlation and market risk varies greatly according to the strategy studied and the time scale examined. Finally, the effects of scaling properties on the risk profile of a portfolio made up of Hedge Funds is studied using correlation matrices calculated over different time horizons.     

Spectral methods and cluster structure in correlation-based networks

We investigate how in complex systems the eigenpairs of the matrices derived from the correlations of multichannel observations reflect the cluster structure of the underlying networks. For this we use daily return data from the NYSE and focus specifically on the spectral properties of weight W_ij=|C|_ij−δ_ij and diffusion matrices D_ij=W_ij/s_j−δ_ij, where C_ij is the correlation matrix and s_i=∑_jW_ij the strength of node j. The eigenvalues (and corresponding eigenvectors) of the weight matrix are ranked in descending order. As in the earlier observations, the first eigenvector stands for a measure of the market correlations. Its components are, to first approximation, equal to the strengths of the nodes and there is a second order, roughly linear, correction. The high ranking eigenvectors, excluding the highest ranking one, are usually assigned to market sectors and industrial branches. Our study shows that both for weight and diffusion matrices the eigenpair analysis is not capable of easily deducing the cluster structure of the network without a priori knowledge. In addition we have studied the clustering of stocks using the asset graph approach with and without spectrum based noise filtering. It turns out that asset graphs are quite insensitive to noise and there is no sharp percolation transition as a function of the ratio of bonds included, thus no natural threshold value for that ratio seems to exist. We suggest that these observations can be of use for other correlation based networks as well.     

Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.     

On entropy, financial markets and minority games

The paper builds upon an earlier statistical analysis of financial time series with Shannon information entropy, published in [L. Molgedey, W. Ebeling, Local order, entropy and predictability of financial time series, European Physical Journal B—Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 15/4 (2000) 733-737]. A novel generic procedure is proposed for making multistep-ahead predictions of time series by building a statistical model of entropy. The approach is first demonstrated on the chaotic Mackey-Glass time series and later applied to Japanese Yen/US dollar intraday currency data. The paper also reinterprets Minority Games [E. Moro, The minority game: An introductory guide, Advances in Condensed Matter and Statistical Physics (2004)] within the context of physical entropy, and uses models derived from minority game theory as a tool for measuring the entropy of a model in response to time series. This entropy conditional upon a model is subsequently used in place of information-theoretic entropy in the proposed multistep prediction algorithm.     

Deterministic factors of stock networks based on cross-correlation in financial market

The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model reflecting essential properties of common economic factors. We find that the degree of consistency between real and model stock networks increases as additional common economic factors are incorporated into our model. Furthermore, we find that individual stocks with a large number of links to other stocks in a network are more highly correlated with common economic factors than those with a small number of links. This suggests that common economic factors in the stock market can be understood in terms of deterministic factors.     

Correlation and volatility in an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

We examine the volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of correlation of stocks and quantify the volatility using the random matrix approach. First we discuss trends observed in the pattern of stock prices in the Bombay Stock Exchange for the three-year period 2000–2002. Random matrix analysis is then applied to study the relationship between the coupling of stocks and volatility. The study uses daily returns of 70 stocks for successive time windows of length 85 days for the year 2001. We compare the properties of matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations in time regimes characterized by different volatilities. Our analyses reveal that (i) the largest (deviating) eigenvalue of C correlates highly with the volatility of the index, (ii) there is a shift in the distribution of the components of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue across regimes of different volatilities, (iii) the inverse participation ratio for this eigenvector anti-correlates significantly with the market fluctuations and finally, (iv) this eigenvector of C can be used to set up a Correlation Index, CI whose temporal evolution is significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index.     

A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.     

The Lévy sections theorem: An application to econophysics

We employ the Lévy sections theorem in the analysis of selected dollar exchange rate time series. The theorem is an extension of the classical central limit theorem and offers an alternative to the most usual analysis of the sum variable. We find that the presence of fat tails can be related to the local volatility pattern of the series.     

Community structure in Congressional cosponsorship networks

We study the United States Congress by constructing networks between Members of Congress based on the legislation that they cosponsor. Using the concept of modularity, we identify the community structure of Congressmen, who are connected via sponsorship/cosponsorship of the same legislation. This analysis yields an explicit and conceptually clear measure of political polarization, demonstrating a sharp increase in partisan polarization which preceded and then culminated in the 104th Congress (1995-1996), when Republicans took control of both chambers of Congress. Although polarization has since waned in the U.S. Senate, it remains at historically high levels in the House of Representatives.     

Herd behavior in weight-driven information spreading models for financial market

We study two weight-driven information spreading models for financial market. In these models, we find that the activity threshold below which the ‘financial crash’ occurs can be increased by uneven distribution of information weight, compared with Eguíluz and Zimmermann model [V.M. Eguíluz, M.G. Zimmermann, Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 (2000) 5659]. We also find that below the threshold the normalized return distribution, P(Z;Δt) satisfies P(Z=0;Δt)∼exp(−Δt/b) whereas P(Z=0;Δt)∼Δt^−τ above the threshold. Here Δt is the time interval where the normalized return is defined, Z(t,Δt)=Z(t+Δt)−Z(t). By approximating the relative increase of P(Z;Δt=1) for large Z as Gaussian distribution with non-zero mean, we show that the non-zero mean of the Gaussian distribution can cause such exponentially decaying behavior of P(Z=0;Δt).     

Network analysis of an online community

We empirically study various network properties of an online community. The numbers of articles written by each user to the bulletin boards of each of the others are used to construct the directed and weighted network B, and gifting behaviors among users are also kept track of, to build the network G which is again directed and weighted. Detailed analysis reveals that B and G have very different network properties. In particular, whereas B contains many more bidirectional links than directed arcs, G shows the opposite characteristic. The number of writings on bulletin boards is found to decay with the distance from the hub vertex, which reflects the structural assortativeness in B. We also observe that the activities in writings and purchases are negatively correlated with each other for highly active users in B.     

Topological properties of stock networks based on minimal spanning tree and random matrix theory in financial time series

We investigated the topological properties of stock networks constructed by a minimal spanning tree. We compared the original stock network with the estimated network; the original network is obtained by the actual stock returns, while the estimated network is the correlation matrix created by random matrix theory. We found that the consistency between the two networks increases as more eigenvalues are considered. In addition, we suggested that the largest eigenvalue has a significant influence on the formation of stock networks.     

City size distributions for India and China

This paper studies the size distributions of urban agglomerations for India and China. We have estimated the scaling exponent for Zipf’s law with the Indian census data for the years of 1981-2001 and the Chinese census data for 1990 and 2000. Along with the biased linear fit estimate, the maximum likelihood estimate for the Pareto and Tsallis q-exponential distribution has been computed. For India, the scaling exponent is in the range of [1.88, 2.06] and for China, it is in the interval [1.82, 2.29]. The goodness-of-fit tests of the estimated distributions are performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.     

Playing the hypothesis testing minority game in the maximal reduced strategy space

Hypothesis Testing Minority Game (HMG) is a variant of the standard Minority Game (MG) that models the inertial behavior of agents in the market. In the earlier study of our group, we find that agents cooperate better in HMG than in the standard MG when strategies are picked from the full strategy space. Here we continue to study the behavior of HMG when strategies are chosen from the maximal reduced strategy space. Surprisingly, we find that, unlike the standard MG, the level of cooperation in HMG depends strongly on the strategy space used. In addition, a novel intermittency dynamics is also observed in the minority choice time series in a certain parameter range in which the orderly phases are characterized by a variety of periodic dynamics. Remarkably, all these findings can be explained by the crowd-anticrowd theory.     

Measuring the flow of information among cities using the diffusion power

In this Letter, we define here the so-called diffusion power - an extension of the dominance power, which considers the interaction between neighbors of higher orders. Using this measure, we analyze the centrality of cities in two networks of the flow of information among these cities, namely a network of calls among the cities and a network of radio stations. Finally, we explain the centralities of the cities evaluated using the diffusion power in terms of the specific characteristics of the cities that belong to the network.     

Peculiar statistical properties of Chinese stock indices in bull and bear market phases

Chinese stock markets have experienced an extraordinary bull market since Jan 2006, which attracted global eyes. We investigate the statistical properties of the indices’ log-return r(t) for the bull market (Jan 2006-Oct 2007) and the previous bear market (Jan 2001-Dec 2005). Here we report three peculiar features of r(t): (i) the cumulative distribution function curve of r(t) in the bull market is similar to that in the bear market; (ii) the autocorrelation function of r(t) in the bull market has a stronger negative correlation and a shorter correlation time than that in the bear market; (iii) the bull market shows stronger long-term correlation than the bear market. This work has relevance to understanding novel statistical properties in economic systems.     

Direct Evidence for Inversion Formula in Multifractal Financial Volatility Measure

The inversion formula for conservative multifractal measures was unveiled mathematically a decade ago, which is however not well tested in real complex systems. We propose to verify the inversion formula using high-frequency turbulent financial data. We construct conservative volatility measure based on minutely S＆P 500 index from 1982 to 1999 and its inverse measure of exit time. Both the direct and inverse measures exhibit nice multifractal nature, whose sealing ranges are not irrelevant. Empirical investigation shows that the inversion formula holds in financial markets.     

Feedback and efficiency in limit order markets

A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All the stocks investigated in Paris Stock Exchange have consistent price impact functions.