Footprints of nonextensive Tsallis statistics, selfaffinity and universality in the preparation of the L’Aquila earthquake hidden in a pre-seismic EM emission

Fracture induced physical fields allow a real-time monitoring of damage evolution in materials during mechanical loading. We investigate the preparation of the recently occurred L’Aquila earthquake in terms of a detected precursory electromagnetic anomaly. The precursor is well described by a recently introduced model for earthquake dynamics, which has been rooted in a nonextensive Tsallis framework starting from first principles. The analysis in terms of nonextensivity implies that the well established aspect of self-affine nature of faulting and fracture is hidden into the precursor, namely, the activation of the L’Aquila fault is a reduced self-affine image of the regional seismicity covering many geological faults. The Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the best known scaling relation for earthquakes, verifies the results based on nonextensivity. The latter suggests that the activation of the L’Aquila fault is a magnified image of the laboratory seismicity by means of acoustic and electromagnetic emissions. Finally, we present evidence for universality in magnetic storm, earthquake, and electromagnetic precursor occurrence by means of complexity and nonextensivity.     

Continuous radon monitoring in soil gas towards earthquake precursory studies in basaltic region

The Koyna-Warna region, near the west coast of India, is well known for reservoir-triggered seismicity. The seismic activity in this region greatly increased following the construction of an artificial reservoir across the Koyna River during the 1960s. A destructive earthquake of M 6.3 occurred on December 10, 1967, and further 19 earthquakes of M>5 have been recorded during the preceding 40 years until 2007. The soil gas radon (²²²Rn) has been studied as an earthquake precursor by continuous monitoring (hourly) at two sites around the Warna reservoir. One site has a multi-sensor probe (installed at three different depths), together with a rainfall recording facility, and another probe is mounted on a hillock at Nivle. During the study period (2005–2007), a total of 11 earthquakes (including 2 aftershocks) of M 4–4.8 were recorded. Most of these events had recorded precursory radon signals. For a given earthquake, the ²²²Rn precursory signatures were recorded at one of the two sites only. Even multiple depth probes showed discordant behaviour in recording temporal Rn variation. Causes of non-concurrence in Rn recording between sites and probes, including the combined effect of site heterogeneity, focal depth, epicentral distance, earthquake magnitude, faults responsible for the earthquake, etc, are discussed.     

Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based on b Value in Yunnan Province,China

Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.     

Is earthquake triggering driven by small earthquakes?

Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer events than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the nontrivial scaling of the number of triggered earthquakes emerges from the fractal spatial distribution of seismicity.     

No evidence of magnitude clustering in an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity

One of the hallmarks of our current understanding of seismicity as highlighted by the epidemic-type-aftershock sequence model is that the magnitudes of earthquakes are independent of one another and can be considered as randomly drawn from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. This assumption forms the basis of many approaches for forecasting seismicity rates and hazard assessment. Recently, it has been suggested that the assumption of independent magnitudes is not valid. It was subsequently argued that this conclusion was not supported by the original earthquake data from California. One of the main challenges is the lack of completeness of earthquake catalogs. Here, we study an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity as observed at the Mponeng mine, for which the issue of incompleteness is much less pronounced. We show that this sequence does not exhibit any significant evidence of magnitude correlations.     

Scale invariance in complex seismic system and its uses in gaining precursory information before large earthquakes: Importance of methodology

Research on precursory information about the scale invariance of seismicity before large earthquakes has been an interesting topic for geophysicists in recent years. However, in some cases, it is difficult to capture this precursory information. Our study results show that seeking a pertinent selection of methodology is really needed for the purpose of gaining precursory information in the application of the analytical methods related to scale invariance. We investigated the scale invariance of the interevent time series of the seismic sequences for the Minle and Songpan regions in China by applying the methods of R/S$R/S$ Hurst analysis, local scaling property, correlation dimension, and generalized dimension spectrum. It is indicated that there are clearly precursory changes of local scaling property before the Minle M6.1 and Songpan M7.2 earthquakes, as well as precursory changes of the Hurst exponent and generalized dimension spectrum before the Songpan M7.2 earthquakes, while there are no clearly precursory changes of the Hurst exponent and generalized dimension spectrum before the Minle M6.1 earthquake, as well as the precursory change of the correlation dimension before the above large earthquakes, which signifies that there is a difference in the capability for capturing precursory information among the above four methods. This result suggests that the selection of an appropriate methodology is quite necessary to obtain the precursory information on the scale invariance in the use of the above four methods. If we do not select an appropriate methodology, we might not obtain any precursory information.     

Long range correlation in earthquake precursory signals

Research on earthquake prediction has drawn serious attention of the geophysicist, geologist and investigators in different fields of science across the globe for many decades. Researchers around the world are actively working on recording pre-earthquake changes in non-seismic parameters through a variety of methods that include anomalous changes in geochemical parameters of the Earth’s crust, geophysical properties of the lithosphere as well as ionosphere etc. Several works also have been done in India to detect earthquake precursor signals using geochemical and geophysical methods. However, very few works have been done so far in India in this field through the application of nonlinear techniques to the recorded geophysical and geochemical precursory signals for earthquakes. The present paper deals with a short review of the early works on geochemical precursors that have been carried out in India as yet. With a view to detect earthquake precursory signals by means of gas-geochemical method we developed a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories in India in hot springs and mud volcano crater. In the last few years we detected several geochemical anomalies and those were observed prior to some major earthquakes that occurred within a radius of 1500?km from the test sites. In the present paper we have applied nonlinear techniques to the long term, real-time and natural data sets of radon-222 and associated gamma originated out of the terrestrial degassing process of the earth. The results reveal a clear signature of the long range correlation present in the geochemical time series. This approach appears to be a potential tool to explore intrinsic information hidden within the earthquake precursory signals.     

What happened before the last five strong earthquakes in Greece: Facts and open questions

During the period October 2005 - January 2006, five strong earthquakes occurred in Greece as follows: three magnitude 6.0 consecutive earthquakes with almost the same epicenter in the Aegean Sea close to the western coast of Turkey, one magnitude 6.1 in western Greece and one magnitude 6.9 in southern Greece. In March 2005 and September 2005, intense anomalous geoelectric changes were observed at two different stations respectively: one in the Aegean Sea and the other in western Greece. These changes were immediately reported to international journals well in advance of earthquake occurrences. Natural time analysis of seismicity subsequent to the September changes around the epicenter of the last 6.9 earthquake is made. The results indicate that the occurrence time of the 6.9 earthquake can be specified with a narrow range around two days.     

Influence of time and space correlations on earthquake magnitude

A crucial point in the debate on the feasibility of earthquake predictions is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, while clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space, and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude similar but smaller than the previous one. A dynamical scaling relation between magnitude, time, and space distances reproduces the complex pattern of magnitude, spatial, and temporal correlations observed in experimental seismic catalogs.     

Self-similar branching of aftershock sequences

In this paper we propose a branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model for seismicity. We suggest that the BASS model is a preferred alternative to the widely studied epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from the statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershocks relative to the magnitude of the seed earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Since the BASS model is specified by the four scaling relations, it is fully self-similar. This is not the case for ETAS. We also give a deterministic version of BASS and show that it satisfies Tokunaga side-branching statistics in a similar way to diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA).     

以颗粒物理原理认识地震——地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测

本文以地壳和地幔的基本构造和己有观测事实为依据,运用颗粒物理原理,将地壳和地幔作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理,重新认识地震孕育过程,前兆产生机制及规律,探求地震预测方法和途径.主要结果是:建立了地壳与地幔构成和运动的颗粒模型;提出了引发地震的大地构造力的形成机制,以及地震前兆信息产生和传播规律;说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联,阐述了探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理;用颗粒流动的阻塞-解阻塞转变原理解释了深源地震发生机制;对以前难以理解的若干地震学现象进行了解释,并讨论了地震的可预测性。由于地壳和地幔的离散结构特征,对于地震孕育的准静力学过程,连续介质理论不再适用.以颗粒物理原理研究地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测,所获得的新认识与传统连续介质地震学观点有本质区别。     

Variation dynamics of the complex topology of a seismicity network

Reduction in the scaling exponent of the frequency-magnitude power law of regional seismic activity as a precursor to sizable earthquakes has been widely documented and debated. Recently, postulation based on a modified sand-pile model has been proposed as a plausible explanation. The model demonstrates systematic variations in the frequency-size scaling exponent of avalanches through the introduction of varying degrees of randomness to the conventional regular, nearest-neighbor network connection. In this study, we examined a connection network of successive events in the Taiwan seismicity, in an attempt to shed lights on the behavior of the actual earthquake network. The revealed nature of connection is indeed quite different from the nearest-neighbor interaction usually presumed in most conventional seismicity modeling. However, monthly variations in the statistics of the connection degree, the connection time and the connection distance that reflect important transition dynamics of the regional seismicity network, are inconsistent with the postulation based on the modified sand-pile model that attributes the scaling exponent variation to the varying degree of long range connections.     

Application of recurrent radon precursors for forecasting large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) near Antung,Taiwan

Radon anomalies in groundwater were recorded prior to three major earthquakes – (1) 2003 M_w = 6.8 Chengkung, (2) 2006 M_w = 6.1 Taitung, and (3) 2008 M_w = 5.4 Antung. The epicenters were located 24 km, 52 km, and 13 km, respectively, from the Antung radon-monitoring station. Prior to the three major earthquakes, radon decreased from background levels of 29.3 ± 1.7, 28.2 ± 2.1, and 27.2 ± 1.8 Bq dm^?3 to minima of 12.1 ± 0.3, 13.7 ± 0.3, and 17.8 ± 1.6 Bq dm^?3, respectively. Based on the radon precursory data, this paper correlates the observed radon minima with earthquake magnitude and precursory time. The correlations provide a possible means for forecasting local disastrous earthquakes in the southern segment of coastal range and longitudinal valley of eastern Taiwan.     

Renormalization of branching models of triggered seismicity from total to observable seismicity

Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold m_d) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to investigate how the statistical properties of observable earthquakes differ from the statistics of all events. The ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (“aftershocks”). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. The triggering efficiency of earthquakes is assumed to vanish below a lower magnitude limit m₀, in order to ensure the convergence of the theory and may reflect the physics of state-and-velocity frictional rupture. We show that, to a good approximation, the statistical distribution of seismic rates of events with magnitudes above m_d generated by an ETAS model with branching ratio n is the same as that of events generated by another ETAS model with effective parameter n(m_d). Our present analysis thus confirms, for the full statistical (time-independent or large time-window approximation) properties, the results obtained previously by one of us and Werner, based solely on the average seismic rates (the first-order moment of the statistics). Our analysis also demonstrates that this correspondence is not exact, as there are small corrections which can be systematically calculated, in terms of additional contributions that can be mapped onto a different branching model. We also show that this approximate correspondence of the ETAS model onto itself obtained by changing m₀ into m_d, and n into n(m_d) holds only with respect to its statistical properties and not for all its space-time properties.     

强地震的前兆次声波研究

利用在北京昌平安装的次声三点阵,对强地震前兆次声波进行了5年的连续观测。统计分析结果表明:强震前约10天内常能测到振幅很强的前兆次声。其三维动态频谱的特点是,振幅由弱逐渐加强,达到极值后变弱;先为长周期波(10-20分),紧跟着短周期波(5-10分),然后又出现更长的周期波,最后长短周期波一起出现。提前时间与三点阵到震中距离之间没有明显的关系,与震级之间也没有明显的关系。     

Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.     

Helium/radon precursory signals of Chamoli Earthquake, India

The Bhagirthi and Alaknanda valleys of Garhwal Himalaya, were rocked, respectively, by two major earthquakes: the Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude m_b=6.5, M_s=7.0 on October 20, 1991 and the Chamoli earthquake of m_b=6.8, M_s=6.5 on March 29, 1999, during this decade. Both these seismic events are associated with ongoing deformation along the main central thrust of the Himalayas. Helium and radon anomalies on March 24 and March 27, 1999, respectively, were recorded at Palampur which is about 393 km from the Chamoli earthquake epicentre. A He/Rn ratio anomaly was recorded on March 20, 9 days before the Chamoli earthquake. The precursory nature of radon and helium anomalies is a strong indicator of the physical basis of earthquake prediction and a preliminary test for the proposed conceptual He/Rn ratio model.     

A relationship between Hurst exponents of slip and waiting time data of earthquakes

We propose a new relationship between the slip and waiting time of real earthquake series. We calculated the Hurst exponents for both time series of slip and waiting time of earthquake sequence in Taiwan CWB (Central Weather Bureau) catalogue. Our findings suggest a good correlation with a correlation coefficient of about 0.8 between the two exponents. Such a good correlation is highly similar to the ones expected from time- or slip-predictable earthquake recurrence models and suggests that the recurrence of real seismicity could be reduced to the time- or slip-predictability in certain sense. This paper, thus, initiates a new direction re-considering earthquake recurrence.     

Variation of radon flux along active fault zones in association with earthquake occurrence

Radon flux measurements were carried out at three radon stations along an active fault zone in the Langadas basin, Northern Greece by various techniques for earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with alpha track-etch detectors (ATDs) were installed by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable cellulose nitrate films (integrating method of measurements). Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground was also performed by using silicon diode detectors, Barasol and Clipperton type, in association with various probes and sensors including simultaneously registration of the meteorological parameters, such as precipitation height (rainfall events), temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained radon data were studied in parallel with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, M_L of earthquakes, the epicentral distance, the hypocentral distance and the energy released during the earthquake event occurred at the fault zone during the period of measurements to find out any association between the rad on flux and the meteorological and seismological parameters. Seismic events with magnitude M_L ≥ 4.0 appeared to be preceded by large precursory signals produced a well-defined “anomaly” (peak) of radon flux prior to the event. In the results, the radon peaks in the obtained spectra appeared to be sharp and narrow. The rise time of a radon peak, that is the time period from the onset of a radon peak until the time of radon flux maximum is about a week, while the after time, that is the time interval between the time of radon flux maximum and the time of a seismic event ranges from about 3 weeks or more.     

震前兆信息传播、分布及其探测原理

地壳岩石层由板块、断层和其间的断层泥构成,在研究地震前兆信息传播这类准静力学问题时,应将其作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理.地震孕育过程中,在大地构造力驱动下,岩石层块克服所受摩擦力和边界断层泥阻力发生滞滑移动.当岩块间断层泥受挤压后其强度增大到一定程度时,又推动下一岩石层块滞滑移动,就这样渐次使其他岩石层块发生移动,并以力链形式分布和传递.文章给出了此模型的物理依据和实际观测例证;通过模拟实验和分析阐述了力-移动-形变在地层中分布的表达形式和传播时间序;说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联,以及探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理.同时,论述了用颗粒物理原理与连续介质观念对地震前兆认识的本质区别,解释了连续介质观点难以理解的若干地震学问题. 关键词： 地震前兆 颗粒物质 滞滑移动 力链