Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.     

Endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes

A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is carried out on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis, and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in the scaling exponent α, which is different from the universal values 1/2 and 1, but also in the distributions of the ratio η= σ^exo / σ^endo of individual stocks. Both the scaling exponent α of fluctuations and the Hurst exponent H_i increase in logarithmic form with the time scale Δt and the mean traded value per minute 〈f_i 〉, respectively. We find that the scaling exponent α^endo of the endogenous fluctuations is independent of the time scale. Multiscaling and multifractal features are observed in the data as well. However, the inhomogeneous impact model is not verified.     

Degree distributions of the visibility graphs mapped from fractional Brownian motions and multifractal random walks

The dynamics of a complex system is usually recorded in the form of time series, which can be studied through its visibility graph from a complex network perspective. We investigate the visibility graphs extracted from fractional Brownian motions and multifractal random walks, and find that the degree distributions exhibit power-law behaviors, in which the power-law exponent α is a linear function of the Hurst index H of the time series. We also find that the degree distribution of the visibility graph is mainly determined by the temporal correlation of the original time series with minor influence from the possible multifractal nature. As an example, we study the visibility graphs constructed from three Chinese stock market indexes and unveil that the degree distributions have power-law tails, where the tail exponents of the visibility graphs and the Hurst indexes of the indexes are close to the α∼H linear relationship.     

Roughness and finite size effect in the NYSE stock-price fluctuations

We consider the roughness properties of NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) stock-price fluctuations. The statistical properties of the data are relatively homogeneous within the same day but the large jumps between different days prevent the extension of the analysis to large times. This leads to intrinsic finite size effects which alter the apparent Hurst (H) exponent. We show, by analytical methods, that finite size effects always lead to an enhancement of H. We then consider the effect of fat tails on the analysis of the roughness and show that the finite size effects are strongly enhanced by the fat tails. The non stationarity of the stock price dynamics also enhances the finite size effects which, in principle, can become important even in the asymptotic regime. We then compute the Hurst exponent for a set of stocks of the NYSE and argue that the interpretation of the value of H is highly ambiguous in view of the above results. Finally we propose an alternative determination of the roughness in terms of the fluctuations from moving averages with variable characteristic times. This permits to eliminate most of the previous problems and to characterize the roughness in useful way. In particular this approach corresponds to the automatic elimination of trends at any scale.     

Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks

The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade durations, where the empirical density functions of the normalized intertrade durations of all 23 stocks collapse onto a single curve. The scaling pattern is also observed in the intertrade duration distributions for filled and partially filled trades and in the conditional distributions. The ensemble distributions for all stocks are modeled by the Weibull and the Tsallis q-exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the Weibull distribution outperforms the q-exponential for not-too-large intertrade durations which account for more than 98.5% of the data. Alternatively, nonlinear least-squares estimation selects the q-exponential as a better model, in which the optimization is conducted on the distance between empirical and theoretical values of the logarithmic probability densities. The distribution of intertrade durations is Weibull followed by a power-law tail with an asymptotic tail exponent close to 3.     

Universal power laws in the threshold network model: A theoretical analysis based on extreme value theory

We theoretically and numerically investigated the threshold network model with a generic weight function where there were a large number of nodes and a high threshold. Our analysis was based on extreme value theory, which gave us a theoretical understanding of the distribution of independent and identically distributed random variables within a sufficiently high range. Specifically, the distribution could be generally expressed by a generalized Pareto distribution, which enabled us to formulate the generic weight distribution function. By using the theorem, we obtained the exact expressions of degree distribution and clustering coefficient which behaved as universal power laws within certain ranges of degrees. We also compared the theoretical predictions with numerical results and found that they were extremely consistent.     

Critical comparison of several order-book models for stock-market fluctuations

Far-from-equilibrium models of interacting particles in one dimension are used as a basis for modelling the stock-market fluctuations. Particle types and their positions are interpreted as buy and sel orders placed on a price axis in the order book. We revisit some modifications of well-known models, starting with the Bak-Paczuski-Shubik model. We look at the four decades old Stigler model and investigate its variants. One of them is the simplified version of the Genoa artificial market. The list of studied models is completed by the models of Maslov and Daniels et al. Generically, in all cases we compare the return distribution, absolute return autocorrelation and the value of the Hurst exponent. It turns out that none of the models reproduces satisfactorily all the empirical data, but the most promising candidates for further development are the Genoa artificial market and the Maslov model with moderate order evaporation.     

On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index H_s, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index H_s and the freedom degree α_x of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution f_r(r) with different tail exponent α_r. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution f_r(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x < 0 and the right part R(x) for x > 0 of f_x(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.     

Empirical analysis of the evolution of a scientific collaboration network

We present an analysis of the temporal evolution of a scientific coauthorship network, the genetic programming network. We find evidence that the network grows according to preferential attachment, with a slightly sublinear rate. We empirically find how a giant component forms and develops, and we characterize the network by several other time-varying quantities: the mean degree, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and the degree distribution. We find that the first three statistics increase over time in the growing network; the degree distribution tends to stabilize toward an exponentially truncated power-law. We finally suggest an effective network interpretation that takes into account the aging of collaboration relationships.     

An optimal network for passenger traffic

The optimal solution of an inter-city passenger transport network has been studied using Zipf’s law for the city populations and the Gravity law describing the fluxes of inter-city passenger traffic. Assuming a fixed value for the cost of transport per person per kilometer we observe that while the total traffic cost decreases, the total wiring cost increases with the density of links. As a result the total cost to maintain the traffic distribution is optimal at a certain link density which vanishes on increasing the network size. At a finite link density the network is scale-free. Using this model the air-route network of India has been generated and an one-to-one comparison of the nodal degree values with the real network has been made.     

Spatiotemporal Characteristic of Epidemic Spreading in Mobile Individuals

We numerical simulate the propagation behaviour and people distribution trait of epidemic spreading in mobile individuals by using cellular automaton method. The simulation results show that there exists a critical value of infected rate fluctuating amplitude, above which the epidemic can spread in whole population. Moreover, with the value of infected rate fluctuating amplitude increasing, the spatial distribution of infected population exhibits the spontaneous formation of irregular spiral waves and convergence phenomena, at the same time, the density of different populations will oscillate automatically with time. What is more, the traits of dynamic grow clearly and stably when the time and the value of infected rate fluctuating amplitude increasing. It is also found that the maximal proportion of infected individuals is independent of the value of fluctuating amplitude rate, but increases linearly with the population density.     

Walks on Weighted Networks

We investigate the dynamics of random walks on weighted networks. Assuming that the edge weight and the node strength are used as local information by a random walker. Two kinds of walks, weight-dependent walk and strength-dependent walk, are studied. Exact expressions for stationary distribution and average return time are derived and confirmed by computer simulations. The distribution of average return time and the mean-square displacement are calculated for two walks on the Barrat-Barthelemy-Vespignani （BBV） networks. It is found that a weight-dependent walker can arrive at a new territory more easily than a strength-dependent one.     

Interacting gaps model,dynamics of order book,and stock-market fluctuations

Inspired by order-book models of financial fluctuations, we investigate the Interacting gaps model, which is the schematic one-dimensional system mimicking the order-book dynamics. We find by simulations the power-law tail in return distribution, power-law decay of volatility autocorrelation with exponent 0.5 and Hurst exponent close to 1/2. Surprisingly, when we make a mean-field approximation, i.e. replace the one-dimensional system by effectively infinite-dimensional one, we obtain analytically the return exponent 5/2, in perfect accord with one-dimensional simulations.     

Role of parties in the vote distribution of proportional elections

We analyze proportional election data to show the influence of parties on the results of this kind of election. The study compiles data from different countries and dates to show that depending on how the candidate’s votes are counted, one can find that these votes have different distributions. When considering the fraction of votes received by the candidates, the vote distribution has a power law behavior with exponent α=1 for all cases studied. However, this universal behavior is modified when we normalize the fraction of votes by the mean number of votes of the candidate’s party. Considering this normalization, the Brazilian and the Finnish results are now different. The former follows an exponential while the latter a log-normal distribution.     

Inefficiency in Latin-American market indices

We explore the deviations from efficiency in the returns and volatility returns of Latin-American market indices. Two different approaches are considered. The dynamics of the Hurst exponent is obtained via a wavelet rolling sample approach, quantifying the degree of long memory exhibited by the stock market indices under analysis. On the other hand, the Tsallis q entropic index is measured in order to take into account the deviations from the Gaussian hypothesis. Different dynamic rankings of inefficieny are obtained, each of them contemplates a different source of inefficiency. Comparing with the results obtained for a developed country (US), we confirm a similar degree of long-range dependence for our emerging markets. Moreover, we show that the inefficiency in the Latin-American countries comes principally from the non-Gaussian form of the probability distributions.     

Low-temperature specific heat spectra considering nonextensive long-range correlated quasiperiodic DNA molecules

We consider the low-temperature specific heat spectra of long-range correlated quasiperiodic DNA molecules using a q-gaussian distribution, and compare them with those considering the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution. The energy spectra are calculated using the one-dimensional Schrödinger equation in a tight-binding approximation with the on-site energy exhibiting long-range disorder and non-random hopping amplitudes. We focus our attention at the low temperature region, where the specific heat spectra presents a logarithmic-periodic oscillations as a function of the temperature T around a mean value given by a characteristic dimension of the energy spectrum.     

Long-term correlations and multifractal nature in the intertrade durations of a liquid Chinese stock and its warrant

The intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure, characterizing trading activities; it is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the statistical properties of their intertrade duration time series. The distributions of the two equities can be better described by the shifted power-law form than the Weibull form, and their scaled distributions do not collapse onto a single curve. Although the intertrade durations of the two equities have very different magnitude, their intraday patterns exhibit very similar shapes. Both detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrending moving average analysis (DMA) show that the 1 min intertrade duration time series of the two equities are strongly correlated. In addition, both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA) unveil that the 1 min intertrade durations possess multifractal nature. However, the difference between the two singularity spectra of the two equities obtained from the MFDMA is much smaller than that from the MFDFA.     

Statistical properties of online avatar numbers in a massive multiplayer online role-playing game

Massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) have been very popular in the past few years. The profit of an MMORPG company is proportional to how many users registered, and the instant number of online avatars is a key factor to assess how popular an MMORPG is. We use the online-offline logs on an MMORPG server to reconstruct the instant number of online avatars per second and investigate its statistical properties. We find that the online avatar number exhibits one-day periodic behavior and clear intraday pattern, the fluctuation distribution of the online avatar numbers has a leptokurtic non-Gaussian shape with power-law tails, and the increments of online avatar numbers after removing the intraday pattern are uncorrelated and the associated absolute values have long-term correlation. In addition, both time series exhibit multifractal nature.     

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean 〈τ〉. We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.     

Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.