The importance of systems thinking in ethical and sustainable decision-making

Ethical values beyond the satisfaction of basic human needs are specific to each society at a given time. Modern societies are confronted to the challenges of disappearing natural resources, fierce competition on global markets, and climate change. In this paper we define ‘good’, and at the same time ‘ethical‘ decisions in the 21st century as being in accordance with the principles of Sustainable Development. Operations Research can assist sustainable decision-making in two ways: (1) through the tools of systems thinking, in particular system dynamics and soft system modelling, to provide insight into the way complex non-linear living systems and human societies function, and help making sustainable decisions, and (2) through educating and training young people in systems thinking. The paper presents examples of simple models that could serve in classrooms.     

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

The systems approach, or systems thinking, has been intimately connected with the development of OR and management science initially through the work of founders such as Churchman and Ackoff and latterly through innovations such as soft systems. In this paper we have undertaken a review of the contribution that systems thinking has been making more recently, especially to the practice of OR. Systems thinking is a discipline in its own right, with many theoretical and methodological developments, but it is also applicable to almost any problem area because of its generality, and so such a review must always be selective. We have looked at the literature from both a theoretical and an applications orientation. In the first part we consider the main systems theories and methodologies in terms of their recent developments and also their applications. This covers: the systems approach, complexity theory, cybernetics, system dynamics, soft OR and PSMs, critical systems and multimethodology. In the second part we review the main domains of application: strategy, information systems, organisations, production and operations, ecology and agriculture, and medicine and health. Our overall conclusion is that while systems may not be well established institutionally, in terms of academic departments, it is incredibly healthy in terms of the quantity and variety of its applications.     

Organizational decision support systems: Centralized support for decentralized organizations

Organizations are becoming increasingly decentralized in their operations and decision making. Advanced information technologies provide the glue that holds such organizations together and facilitates their operations. Organizational decision support systems (ODSSs) provide mechanisms for ensuring that the decisions being made throughout such organizations are consistent with each other and with the overall organization goals. Through means of an ODSS, information and guidance is automatically passed from higher levels to lower levels for use in decision-making models.     

基于熵的多目标多维模糊决策模型

顾及多目标多维决策中存在的模糊性和随机性,基于Jaynes的信息熵最大原理,提出一种模糊环境下带有主观监督因子和信息熵的目标函数,导出了新的计算模糊决策识别矩阵与目标权重的模糊交叉计算公式.该模型将基于目标的客观决策与主观决策有机结合起来,为求解最优模糊决策识别矩阵和确定目标最优权重提供了一种有效途径,并把信息熵作为评价决策优劣的指标,进一步发展了多目标多维模糊决策理论模型.将本文提出的模糊决策方法应用于16家电炉炼钢企业的模糊综合评价,取得了较为满意的效果.     

The sugar production factory—A dynamic decision task

This article describes the Sugar Production Factor and its structural equivalent, the Personal Interaction task. These are two simple, individual dynamic decision-making tasks in which subjects make interdependent decisions to reach a goal, and receive feedback on the outcome of their efforts along the way. An important result from human learning experiments using these two tasks and their variants is that subjects reliably improve their ability to reach the goal over a moderate number of training trials (40–90) but do not show consistent improvement in other measures of task knowledge. These other measures focus on subjects' ability to accurately predict the task environment's response to their actions and subjects' ability to produce useful heuristics. This pattern of results runs counter to the idea that decision makers' performance in dynamic decision tasks depends critically on the predictive accuracy their internal models of the task environment. Variants of both tasks have been used to manipulate this pattern of results and explore more deeply the nature of the internal models that subjects form of the task environment. These variants are discussed in the context of other relevant findings in the dynamic decision making literature.     

状态离散的确定性多阶段群体决策的满意策略

为了求解状态离散的确定性多阶段群体决策问题,建立了多阶段群体决策模型,定义了群体Pareto最优策略、群体满意策略等概念,依据Bellman最优性原理,提出了多阶段群体决策问题的逆向递推算法,并通过引入偏好关系,得到了各阶段的子过程群体满意策略以及全过程群体满意策略,最后给出了一个计算实例．     

Cliques in Steiner systems

A partial Steiner (k,l)-system is a k-uniform hypergraph with the property that every l-element subset of V is contained in at most one edge of . In this paper we show that for given k,l and t there exists a partial Steiner (k,l)-system such that whenever an l-element subset from every edge is chosen, the resulting l-uniform hypergraph contains a clique of size t. As the main result of this note, we establish asymptotic lower and upper bounds on the size of such cliques with respect to the order of Steiner systems. Research of the second author partially supported by NSERC grant OGP0025112.     

A general model for voting systems with multiple alternatives

In this paper, the extension of simple games to the vector case is proposed. Games with multiple qualitative criteria and multi-criteria simple games are introduced as a natural tool for modelling voting systems and related social-choice situations. After formally defining these games, the special class of monotonic multi-criteria simple games is characterized. We show that these games enable the formulation and analysis of several collective decision models proposed in the literature. Furthermore, our model can be applied to group-decision problems which cannot be analyzed in the existing frameworks.     

群体多指标决策的偏好集结方法

研究多个指标条件下,利用个体决策结果形成群体一致偏好的方法、假设个体有加性效用函数,将个体多指标效用函数表示成单个指标评价函数的加权和,群体指标评价函数表示成个体指标评价函数的加权和.通过协商指标权重、指标评价函数、支付意愿三个参数,成对个体达成双方一致.提出了(n-1)对个体之间达成双方一致,从而得出群体效用函数的决策方法,这种分析框架同样可以扩展到联盟协商一致中.     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Evaluating systems thinking in housing

This paper describes and evaluates work carried out in the social housing context in the United Kingdom using a systems thinking approach called ‘lean systems’ (LS). The work, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, was designed to test whether LS could improve the efficiency of delivery of housing management and maintenance services. A pilot programme was developed in which three housing organizations used the approach in different service areas. The results indicate that LS can yield efficiency gains and improvements in service performance, customer satisfaction and staff morale—although securing and sustaining these results requires considerable organizational commitment. The LS approach is outlined, work in the pilots described and the results presented. A theoretical analysis seeks to locate LS in the spectrum of systems methodologies and to delimit its particular area of competence.     

具有模糊数的模糊多目标群体决策优选模型与方法

多目标群体决策问题是运筹学的一个重要研究领域，目前已经提出了一些有效的决策方法。但对目标值和权重均为模糊数的模糊多目标群体决策问题却研究不多，本对此类模糊多目标群体决策问题进行了探讨，利用相对正理想方案与相对负理想方案概念定义了相对差异距离，进而建立了模糊多目标群体决策优选模型与方法，并通过战役决心方案的评价说明了该方法是可行、有效的，可作为军事决策与决策支持系统的备选方法。     

The dynamic shortest path problem with anticipation

Mobile communication technologies enable truck drivers to keep abreast of changing traffic conditions in real-time. We assume that such communication capability exists for a single vehicle traveling from a known origin to a known destination where certain arcs en route are congested, perhaps as the result of an accident. Further, we know the likelihood, as a function of congestion duration, that congested arcs will become uncongested and thus less costly to traverse. Using a Markov decision process, we then model and analyze the problem of constructing a minimum expected total cost route from an origin to a destination that anticipates and then responds to changes in congestion, if they occur, while the vehicle is en route. We provide structural results and illustrate the behavior of an optimal policy with several numerical examples and demonstrate the superiority of an optimal anticipatory policy, relative to a route design approach that reflects the reactive nature of current routing procedures.     

Symmetrization of diagonalizable complex differential systems

Let L be a first order system where D₀=∂/∂x₀, Dj=∂/∂xj, y is a real vector parameter, I is the idendity 3×3 matrix and aj(y) is a 3×3 matrix-valued complex smooth function.Let L(y,ξ) be the symbol of L(y,D). We assume: ∀y, the real reduced dimension of L in y is 5 and L(y,ξ) is symmetrizable: ∃T(y) such that: T−1(y)L(y,ξ)T(y) is hermitian ∀ξ. We assume the nonexistence of some double characteristics depending on the reduced form of the system. Then: L(y,ξ) is smoothly symmetrizable ? ∃T(y) smooth (same smoothness as the coefficients) such that: T−1(y)L(y,ξ)T(y) is hermitian ∀ξ.     

一种基于组合不确定型OWGA算子的区间数群决策方法

本文研究了区间数群决策信息的集结方法。基于区间数两两比较的可能度矩阵公式和互补判断矩阵的排序公式,推广了文献[3]提出的不确定型OWGA算子,提出了一种组合不确定型OWGA算子,给出了其在应用过程中的具体步骤,并提出了一种相应的集结群决策信息的方法,最后通过一个算例说明了该方法的有效性与可行性,并与文献[3]的结果作了对比分析。     

An Experimental Assessment of Coleman's Linear System of Action for Supporting Policy Negotiations

We report on an experimental assessment of the applicability of Coleman's Linear System of Action (LSA) to policy negotiations. In LSA, policy negotiations are modeled as exchange of control over issues. LSA allows one to compute the equilibrium control distribution for a group of decision makers, based on their distributions of preferences for, and control over, the issues at stake. The LSA theory, however, does not address the process of how the decision makers should exchange control over the issues to arrive at the equilibrium control. We test in an experimental setting partial and full LSA-based support vs. no support, for three different social structures among the decision makers engaging in repeated bilateral negotiation rounds. The results of the laboratory experiment indicate that the level of LSA support affects the negotiation process and the efficiency of reaching the equilibrium, while the influence of the decision makers' social structure is less clear. These results suggest that Coleman's LSA concept can be employed to support policy negotiations in a practical setting.     

模糊多属性决策的三种结构元方法

将结构元理论引入到模糊多属性决策中,按照经典多属性决策的乐观型准则、悲观型准则和乐观-悲观结合型准则,对应地建立了基于模糊结构元理论的模糊乐观型、模糊悲观型、模糊乐观-悲观结合型决策方法。借助一个实例,本文运用这三种算法进行了决策,得出了和传统决策算法一致的结论。本文提出的算法不仅易于理解,而且计算的速度也远比传统算法要快,对于进一步研究模糊多属性决策问题有很好的参考作用。     

Utilization of mathematical programming for public systems: An application to effective formation of integrated regional information networks

This paper concerns a methodological reflection on the multiobjective approach to public systems which involve group decision processes. Particular attention is given to an integrated program of regional systems which include value trade-offs between multiple objectives. Our intention is to combine the judgmental processes with the optimization processes in the soft public systems. A two-layer approach is applied. At the first layer, each regional program is formulated in mathematical programming based on a utility assessment with different regional characteristics. Each subsystem independently reflects its particular concern as a single agent. The dual optimal solutions obtained for each subsystem are treated as an index, or the theoretical prices, representing the value trade-offs among the multiple objectives. At the second layer, an effective formation of interregional cooperation for compromising the conflicting regional interests is examined. Ann-person cooperative game in the characteristic function form is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the cooperation. The characteristic function for the game is derived on the incremental value of the regional benefit after the formation of a cooperation. The nucleolus and the augmented nucleolus as the solution concepts of the cooperative game are used for indicating the effectiveness of the cooperation. Finally using alternative criteria, the results in assessing the best decisions are examined comparatively.     

Finding all solutions to polynomial systems and other systems of equations

In a previous paper, the authors suggested a procedure for obtaining all solutions to certain systems ofn equations inn complex variables. The idea was to start with a trivial system of equations to which all solutions were easily known. The trivial system was then perturbed into the given system. During the perturbation process, one followed the solution paths from each of the trivial solutions into the solutions of the given system. All solutions to the given system were thereby obtained.This paper utilizes a different approach that eliminates the requirement of the previous paper for a leading dominating term in each equation. We add a dominating term artificially and then fade it. Also we rely on mathematically more fundamental concepts from differential topology. These advancements permit the calculation of all solutions to arbitrary polynomials and to various other systems ofn equations inn complex variables. In addition, information on the number of solutions can be obtained without calculation.Work supported in part by NSF Grant No. MCS77-15509 and ARO Grant No. DAAG-29-78-G-0160.Work supported in part by ARO Grant No. DAAG-29-78-G-0160