TFR模型序加试验下WEIBULL分布产品寿命的统计分析

本文针对损伤效率(TFR)模型,首次提出将步加试验推广至序加试验,给出了两参数Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计.     

对数正态分布基于恒加试验的参数估计

讨论对数正态分布场合有非常数尺度参数恒加试验的参数估计,由最小均方误差准则导出基于完全样本恒加试验的点估计和近似区间估计.     

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??The linear accelerated model is often used to the statistical analysis of constant stress accelerated life test, whereas it does not relate well with the facts. By adopting the power functional accelerated model, the relationship of sample quantiles among different constant stress levels is obtained, which can lead to the estimations of the parameters in accelerated model and the characteristic coefficient vectors by virtue of the least square method, then the life-time data transformation between different stress levels can be operated. For complete data and censoring data, a Dirichlet process prior is introduced to gain the posterior distribution and the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the reliability function, meanwhile, the consistency of the posterior estimators is proved. Finally, a real life example of Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor capacitors is analyzed to illustrate the effect of our model.     

一种新的恒加试验下双参数指数型产品的可靠性分析

针对双参数指数型产品,在具有二项移走(即在每个观测时刻产品的移走数服从二项分布)的分组寿命试验下,研究了分组时刻的确定方法,推导出门限参数、寿命参数和移走概率的极大似然估计。进而,讨论了双参数指数型产品在具有二项移走的恒加寿命分组试验下的可靠性分析问题。利用加速寿命方程,给出了双参数指数型产品的可靠性估计。最后给出随机模拟例子验证了结论的正确性。     

两参数指数分布产品全样本场合下步进应力加速寿命试验损伤失效率模型下的统计分析

本文给出了两参数指数分布产品全样本场合下步进应力加速寿命试验损伤失效率模型下参数的极大似然估计和拟矩估计,并通过Monte-Carlo模拟说明本文方法的可行性.     

Weibull分布基于恒加试验的参数估计

讨论了Weibull分布场合恒加寿命试验的参数估计,在文[1]对参数估计改进的基础上作了进一步改进,从而使改进后的参数估计更优.     

CE模型下Weibull分布序加试验的Bayes分析

序进应力加速寿命试验是一种最为有效而经济的寿命试验方法,随着其理论的日趋成熟,在实践中开始得到应用和推广．本文给出了逆幂律模型下Weilbull分布定时和定数场合序进应力加速寿命试验的一种Bayes统计分析,并利用Gibbs抽样方法解决了分布的形状参数取为连续先验时各参数的Bayes估计．这种先验意义更明确,实例表明这是一种非常有效的方法．     

Optimal Robust Design of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test Scheme under Weibull Distribution

The traditional accelerated life test scheme is necessary to give the rough values of some model parameters in advance, but the influence of fluctuation on the stability of test scheme is irregulared. Based on the prior life test information, this paper aims to minimize the mean and variance of asymptotic variance of $p$-quantile life estimate under normal test stress level, using maximum likelihood estimation theory and Nelson cumulative failure principle, the optimal robust design mathematical model of step stress accelerated life test scheme with uncertainty parameters under Weibull distribution is established. The results of optimal robust design of step stress accelerated life test scheme for electrical connectors show that: comparing with the optimal design of step stress test scheme in the literature, the optimal robust design scheme is not sensitive to the uncertainty of model parameters when the asymptotic variance of median life estimate is basically the same; Comparing with the optimal design of constant accelerated life test scheme, when the statistical accuracy of test data is basically the same, the number of samples required can be reduced by 1/5, and the test time can be reduced by about 1/4.     

Gompertz分布TFR模型多步步进应力加速寿命试验的统计分析

本文给出了Gompertz分布产品的多步步加试验损伤失效率模型下参数的极大似然估计和拟矩估计, 最后通过模拟例子说明本文方法是可行的. 另外, 本文还给出了参数的区间估计.     

单参数指数分布产品截尾样本场合简单步进应力加速寿命试验损伤失效率模型下的统计分析

本文给出单参数指数分布产品截尾样本场合简单步进应力加速寿命试验损伤失效率模型下参数的极大似然估计和拟矩估计。     

双参数指数分布环境因子的Bayes估计

讨论了定数截尾样本下双参数指数分布环境因子的极大似然估计、区间估计和Bayes估计.以参数后验密度的商密度作为环境因子的后验密度,并结合专家经验运用Bayes方法给出了环境因子在平方损失下和LINEX损失下的Bayes估计.最后运用Monte Carlo方法对各估计结果的均方误差(MSE),进行了模拟比较.结果表明LINEX损失下环境因子的估计较好.     

指数分布场合下步进应力加速寿命试验的极大似然估计

本文首先给出了指数分布场合下步进应力加速寿命试验定时和定数截尾的MLE的存在和唯一的充要条件 ,然后给出了正常应力下平均寿命的近似置信区间 ,最后用随机模拟的方法研究了MLE的点估计的偏性和均方误差 ,近似置信区间覆盖真值的比率并与其它方法作了比较 .     

定时截尾场合指数分布表决系统产品的统计分析

本文针对指数分布2/3(G)表决系统产品,在截尾样本场合下给出了参数的拟矩估计、极大似然估计和近似区间估计,并通过大量的Monte-Carlo模拟分别考察了点估计和区间估计的精度。     

几何分布截尾样本场合步进应力加速寿命试验TFR模型下的统计分析

讨论了几何分布产品在步进应力加速试验TFR模型下寿命分布.给出了其寿命分布函数步进形式,在截尾样本场合利用极大似然估计方法和拟矩估计方法求出了未知参数的点估计,最后利用计算机模拟考察了说明本文方法的可行性.     

指数分布冷贮备系统产品的统计分析——转换开关完全可靠的情形

本文给出了全样本场合指数分布冷贮备系统产品在转换开关完全可靠的情形下参数的矩估计、极大似然估计、精确区间估计和近似区间估计,并通过大量Monte-Carlo模拟说明估计的精度。     

幂律-威布尔模型下序进应力和恒定应力组合寿命试验的统计分析

对幂律－威布尔模型,利用一组序进应力加速寿命试验数据和另一组恒定应力加速寿命试验数据给出了参数的点估计和区间估计,并且一个实用例说明方法的应用。     

竞争失效产品加速寿命试验的参数估计

讨论了指数分布场合竞争失效产品加速寿命试验的参数估计,对常用极大似然估计作了一些改进,从而使改进后的参数估计在均方误差意义下更优.     

Statistical Analysis Technique of Two-parameter Generalized Exponential Sum Distribution

A new life distribution is proposed, known as ``two-parameter generalized exponential sum distribution". We study the density function and failure rate function, the average failure rate function, the image features and the numerical characteristics of the mean residual life of the distribution. Several methods of calculating point estimation of parameters are discussed. Through the Monte-Carlo simulation, we compare the precision of the point estimations. In our opinion, the best linear unbiased estimation is the most optimal solution of these methods. At the same time, several methods of calculating parameters of interval estimations are given. We also discuss the precision of interval estimations by Monte-Carlo simulation and use the best linear unbiased estimation and the best linear invariant estimation to construct interval estimations which are better than other estimation method. Finally, several simulation examples and a case of maintaining tanks is used to illustrate the application of the methods presented in this paper.     

定数截尾试验下两参数Weibull分布尺度参数的最优稳健Bayes估计

以Г-后验期望损失作为标准,研究了定数截尾试验下两参数W e ibu ll分布尺度参数θ的最优稳健Bayes估计问题.假设尺度参数θ的先验分布在分布族Г上变化,形状参数β已知时,在0-1损失下,得到了θ的最优稳健区间估计,在均方损失下得到θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计;β未知时,得到了θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计.最后给出了数值例子,说明了方法的有效性.