基于粒子滤波状态估计的滚动轴承故障识别方法

提出了一种基于粒子滤波状态估计的滚动轴承故障识别方法,该方法主要包括故障模型建立和故障识别两个步骤。在故障模型建立部分,首先依据滚动轴承不同故障状态下的振动信号,建立对应的自回归模型,作为故障模型;在故障识别部分,将正常状态下对应的模型,转化为状态空间模型,设计粒子滤波器,然后对不同的故障状态进行估计,提取其残差的相关特征,并结合模型参数特征应用BP神经网络识别算法进行故障识别。最后以美国凯斯西储大学的滚动轴承振动数据为例,验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于加权改进的AR模型的负载预测研究

负载预测在故障管理中有着十分重要的作用,通过对CPU负载以及内存使用率的预测可以对系统进行实时监控,预知未来时间段资源的可用性,发出异常告警;文中提出一种加权改进的自回归模型,通过对最小二乘法求出的参数进行加权处理,结合时间序列分析理论,建立一个负载预测模型,用于CPU负载和内存使用率的预测;实验证明,对AR模型的参数进行加权的方法优化了参数估计,预测误差减小了60%~80%。     

灰色极限学习机在滚动轴承故障预测中的应用

针对较强噪声环境下的滚动轴承故障预测问题,为提高轴承故障预测的精度,提出并研究了一种新的滚动轴承预测技术。采用将灰色模型和极限学习机（ELM）相结合的方法,针对轴承运行状态值的非线性特点,先将样本数据进行灰色处理,解决数据的随机性和波动性问题,然后代入学习速度快,泛化精度高的ELM神经网络进行训练。在训练完毕后,对未来的轴承运行状态数据进行分析,将其与轴承设备的理论诊断标准相比较以达到故障预测的目的。     

基于ARMA模型的船舶海水冷却系统参数预测

船舶海水冷却系统与船外海水直接接触,工作环境较为恶劣,而基于小波理论、灰色理论等参数预测方法受环境影响较大,为了实现对船舶海水冷却系统状态参数的准确预测,提出了根据平稳时间序列建立自回归移动平均模型（ARMA）的方法;介绍了ARMA模型原理及建模过程;选取“育鲲轮”海水冷却系统6天的状态参数作为训练样本,输入到ARMA预测模型中进行训练;在MATLAB环境下,获得预测数据;运用平均绝对百分比误差对预测模型的准确性进行验证并对误差进行分析,结果表明所建立的船舶海水冷却系统状态参数预测模型具有良好的预测能力,能有效的反应未来一段时间海水冷却系统的工作状态的变化,提示系统是否存在异常,为早期故障诊断提供有效手段,进而为船舶的稳定运营提供了条件。     

基于粒子群算法的汽车保有量预测方法

汽车保有量关系到城市建设与规划。针对汽车保有量预测问题,提出一种基于粒子群算法的汽车保有量预测方法,建立了一种多因素汽车保有量预测模型。选取城镇人口、居民消费水平、人均地区生产总值、道路网密度、公共交通车辆运营数、公共交通客运总量、油价7个指标作为汽车保有量的主要影响因素。利用主成分分析方法确定影响因素主成分,以主成分作为自变量,汽车保有量作为因变量,建立回归分析模型。运用粒子群算法,结合主成分回归预测值对汽车保有量进行预测。以2005～2014年上海市汽车保有量数据为依据,预测出上海市2020年汽车保有量约为400万辆,并对预测结果进行了分析。     

基于油液光谱分析和粒子滤波的发动机剩余寿命预测研究

油液光谱分析是机械磨损状态监测、故障诊断与故障预测的重要技术,基于光谱数据的机械状态剩余寿命预测有利于实现机械系统的最优维修决策。由于机械设备越来越复杂,其健康状态的退化过程很难用线性模型来表示,而粒子滤波(particle filter, PF)对非线性非高斯系统的处理能力,与经典Kalman滤波相比具有明显的优势,文章将PF预测方法运用于光谱分析,提出了基于PF和油液光谱分析技术的设备剩余寿命预测方法。在预测模型中实现了根据设备后验分布的估计值预测其先验分布概率,建立了基于PF的多步向前长期预测模型。最后,对某发动机实际的光谱分析数据进行了预测和分析,并与传统Kalman滤波方法的预测结果进行了比较,结果充分表明了本方法的有效性和优越性。     

船用燃气轮机状态趋势预测算法研究

燃气轮机是船舶动力系统的重要组成部分,为了提高船舶性能,需对其进行状态趋势预测;首先研究了常用的几种预测算法,总结了各自优缺点和适用范围,对常见预测方法的技术特点进行了详细分析;为提高船用燃气轮机状态预测精度,提出了组合优选和虚拟预测的思想,通过研究组合预测方法实现了燃汽轮机状态的趋势预测,验证了组合优选和虚拟预测的可操作性和正确性,将预测结果同直接预测相比较,验证了其优越性。     

基于损失模型的气冷涡轮性能预测

本文介绍的气冷涡轮性能预测是以一元特性计算方法为基础的,其中考虑了涡轮叶栅的叶型损失、二次流损失、漏气损失和尾缘损失,还引入了气冷涡轮的掺混损失。并将损失模型计算的不同攻角的损失系数分布与CFD模拟结果进行了对比。根据涡轮级动叶不同的工作状态,选取不同的自变量组合形式,使其能够用于计算亚音速、跨音速、有冷却和无冷却涡轮的性能。最后针对某型涡轮给出了性能预测结果。     

基于粒子群支持向量机的海杂波序列回归预测

在雷达数据处理中,为更好地抑制海杂波,预测海杂波是必要的;海杂波具有混沌特性,而支持向量机算法能够有效地对混沌序列进行回归预测,文章提出了一种改进的支持向量机海杂波序列回归预测算法;文中给出了算法的框架结构,采用了互信息法和改进的伪邻近点法提取海杂波混沌特性的延迟时间和嵌入维数,利用相空间重构求取SVM训练样本,应用改进的PSO算法优化SVM的核函数参数以及惩罚系数,并仿真了预测模型;仿真实验结果表明:海杂波回归预测能达到满意的精度,而PSO-SVM方法比SVM方法的预测精度更高。     

基于长短时记忆神经网络的风电机组滚动轴承故障诊断方法

风能作为一种绿色能源在我国能源结构中发挥着越来越重要的作用。风电机组的滚动轴承作为传动系统的重要组成部分,是其主要故障部件之一。随着风电规模的不断增长,及时地发现风电机组滚动轴承的故障对风电场安全稳定运行具有重要意义。针对传统回归神经网络存在的梯度消失问题,提出了利用长短时记忆神经网络对风电机组滚动轴承进行故障诊断的模型。首先,利用小波包变换对风电机组滚动轴承振动信号进行处理,提取其特征向量,将其作为长短时神经网络的输入,从而诊断出风电机组滚动轴承的三种常见故障。通过算例分析,结果表明所提出的方法能够有效地对风电机组的滚动轴承进行故障诊断,并且在故障特征量差异不明显的情况下长短时记忆神经网络仍具有良好的故障诊断性能,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Rolling Bearing Fault Diagnosis Using Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Based on 1D-CNN Model

To satisfy the requirements of the end-to-end fault diagnosis of rolling bearings, a hybrid model, based on optimal SWD and 1D-CNN, with the layer of multi-sensor data fusion, is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the BAS optimal algorithm is adopted to obtain the optimal parameters of SWD. After that, the raw signals from different channels of sensors are segmented and preprocessed by the optimal SWD, whose name is BAS-SWD. By which, the sensitive OCs with higher values of spectrum kurtosis are extracted from the raw signals. Subsequently, the improved 1D-CNN model based on VGG-16 is constructed, and the decomposed signals from different channels are fed into the independent convolutional blocks in the model; then, the features extracted from the input signals are fused in the fusion layer. Finally, the fused features are processed by the fully connected layers, and the probability of classification is calculated by the cross-entropy loss function. The result of comparative experiments, based on different datasets, indicates that the proposed model is accurate, effective, and has a good generalization ability.     

Rolling Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on VMD-MPE and PSO-SVM

The goal of the paper is to present a solution to improve the fault detection accuracy of rolling bearings. The method is based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), multiscale permutation entropy (MPE) and the particle swarm optimization-based support vector machine (PSO-SVM). Firstly, the original bearing vibration signal is decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF) by using the VMD method, and the feature energy ratio (FER) criterion is introduced to reconstruct the bearing vibration signal. Secondly, the multiscale permutation entropy of the reconstructed signal is calculated to construct multidimensional feature vectors. Finally, the constructed multidimensional feature vector is fed into the PSO-SVM classification model for automatic identification of different fault patterns of the rolling bearing. Two experimental cases are adopted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed method can achieve a higher identification accuracy compared with some similar available methods (e.g., variational mode decomposition-based multiscale sample entropy (VMD-MSE), variational mode decomposition-based multiscale fuzzy entropy (VMD-MFE), empirical mode decomposition-based multiscale permutation entropy (EMD-MPE) and wavelet transform-based multiscale permutation entropy (WT-MPE)).     

Rolling Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on WOA-VMD-MPE and MPSO-LSSVM

In order to further improve the accuracy of fault identification of rolling bearings, a fault diagnosis method based on the modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) algorithm optimized least square support vector machine (LSSVM), combining parameter optimization variational mode decomposition (VMD) and multi-scale permutation entropy (MPE), was proposed. Firstly, to solve the problem of insufficient decomposition and mode mixing caused by the improper selection of mode component K and penalty factor α in VMD algorithm, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) was used to optimize the penalty factor and mode component number in the VMD algorithm, and the optimal parameter combination (K, α) was obtained. Secondly, the optimal parameter combination (K, α) was used for the VMD of the rolling bearing vibration signal to obtain several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). According to the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) criterion, the optimal IMF component was selected, and its optimal multi-scale permutation entropy was calculated to form the feature set. Finally, K-fold cross-validation was used to train the MPSO-LSSVM model, and the test set was input into the trained model for identification. The experimental results show that compared with PSO-SVM, LSSVM, and PSO-LSSVM, the MPSO-LSSVM fault diagnosis model has higher recognition accuracy. At the same time, compared with VMD-SE, VMD-MPE, and PSO-VMD-MPE, WOA-VMD-MPE can extract more accurate features.     

Research on Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method of Rolling Bearing Based on Digital Twin

Bearing is a key part of rotating machinery. Accurate prediction of bearing life can avoid serious failures. To address the current problem of low accuracy and poor predictability of bearing life prediction, a bearing life prediction method based on digital twins is proposed. Firstly, the vibration signals of rolling bearings are collected, and the time-domain and frequency-domain features of the actual data set are extracted to construct the feature matrix. Then unsupervised classification and feature selection are carried out by improving the self-organizing feature mapping method. Using sensitive features to construct a twin dataset framework and using the integrated learning CatBoost method to supplement the missing data sets, a complete digital twin dataset is formed. Secondly, important information is extracted through macro and micro attention mechanisms to achieve weight amplification. The life prediction of rolling bearing is realized by using fusion features. Finally, the proposed method is verified by experiments. The experimental results show that this method can predict the bearing life with a limited amount of measured data, which is superior to other prediction methods and can provide a new idea for the health prediction and management of mechanical components.     

Feature Enhancement Method of Rolling Bearing Based on K-Adaptive VMD and RBF-Fuzzy Entropy

The complex and harsh working environment of rolling bearings cause the fault characteristics in vibration signal contaminated by the noise, which make fault diagnosis difficult. In this paper, a feature enhancement method of rolling bearing signal based on variational mode decomposition with K determined adaptively (K-adaptive VMD), and radial based function fuzzy entropy (RBF-FuzzyEn), is proposed. Firstly, a phenomenon called abnormal decline of center frequency (ADCF) is defined in order to determine the parameter K of VMD adaptively. Then, the raw signal is separated into K intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). A coefficient En for selecting optimal IMFs is calculated based on the center frequency bands (CFBs) of all IMFs and frequency spectrum for original signal autocorrelation operation. After that, the optimal IMFs of which En are bigger than the threshold are selected to reconstruct signal. Secondly, RBF is introduced as an innovative fuzzy function to enhance the feature discrimination of fuzzy entropy between bearings in different states. A specific way for determination of parameter r in fuzzy function is also presented. Finally, RBF-FuzzyEn is used to extract features of reconstructed signal. Simulation and experiment results show that K-adaptive VMD can effectively reduce the noise and enhance the fault characteristics; RBF-FuzzyEn has strong feature differentiation, superior noise robustness, and low dependence on data length.     

A New Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing Based on Markov Transition Field and CNN

The rolling bearing is a crucial component of the rotating machine, and it is particularly vital to ensure its normal operation. In addition, the selection of different category features will add uncertainty and bias to the classification results. In order to decrease the interference of these factors to fault diagnosis, a new method that automatically learns the features of the data combined with Markov transition field (MTF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed in this paper, namely MTF-CNN. The MTF contributes to convert the original time series into corresponding figures, and the CNN is used to extract the deep feature information in the figure to complete the fault diagnosis. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two public data sets. The experimental results show that MTF-CNN can classify different types of faults, and the highest accuracy rate can reach 100%. Likewise, the classification accuracy of this method is higher than some existing methods.     

A Novel Fault Diagnosis Method for Rolling Bearing Based on Hierarchical Refined Composite Multiscale Fluctuation-Based Dispersion Entropy and PSO-ELM

This paper proposes a novel fault diagnosis method for rolling bearing based on hierarchical refined composite multiscale fluctuation-based dispersion entropy (HRCMFDE) and particle swarm optimization-based extreme learning machine (PSO-ELM). First, HRCMFDE is used to extract fault features in the vibration signal at different time scales. By introducing the hierarchical theory algorithm into the vibration signal decomposition process, the problem of missing high-frequency signals in the coarse-grained process is solved. Fluctuation-based dispersion entropy (FDE) has the characteristics of insensitivity to noise interference and high computational efficiency based on the consideration of nonlinear time series fluctuations, which makes the extracted feature vectors more effective in describing the fault information embedded in each frequency band of the vibration signal. Then, PSO is used to optimize the input weights and hidden layer neuron thresholds of the ELM model to improve the fault identification capability of the ELM classifier. Finally, the performance of the proposed rolling bearing fault diagnosis method is verified and analyzed by using the CWRU dataset and MFPT dataset as experimental cases, respectively. The results show that the proposed method has high identification accuracy for the fault diagnosis of rolling bearings with varying loads and has a good load migration effect.     

Composite Multivariate Multi-Scale Permutation Entropy and Laplacian Score Based Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

As a powerful tool for measuring complexity and randomness, multivariate multi-scale permutation entropy (MMPE) has been widely applied to the feature representation and extraction of multi-channel signals. However, MMPE still has some intrinsic shortcomings that exist in the coarse-grained procedure, and it lacks the precise estimation of entropy value. To address these issues, in this paper a novel non-linear dynamic method named composite multivariate multi-scale permutation entropy (CMMPE) is proposed, for optimizing insufficient coarse-grained process in MMPE, and thus to avoid the loss of information. The simulated signals are used to verify the validity of CMMPE by comparing it with the often-used MMPE method. An intelligent fault diagnosis method is then put forward on the basis of CMMPE, Laplacian score (LS), and bat optimization algorithm-based support vector machine (BA-SVM). Finally, the proposed fault diagnosis method is utilized to analyze the test data of rolling bearings and is then compared with the MMPE, multivariate multi-scale multiscale entropy (MMFE), and multi-scale permutation entropy (MPE) based fault diagnosis methods. The results indicate that the proposed fault diagnosis method of rolling bearing can achieve effective identification of fault categories and is superior to comparative methods.     

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Model for Rolling Bearings Based on MFPE–MACNN

Aiming to resolve the problem of redundant information concerning rolling bearing degradation characteristics and to tackle the difficulty faced by convolutional deep learning models in learning feature information in complex time series, a prediction model for remaining useful life based on multiscale fusion permutation entropy (MFPE) and a multiscale convolutional attention neural network (MACNN) is proposed. The original signal of the rolling bearing was extracted and decomposed by resonance sparse decomposition to obtain the high-resonance and low-resonance components. The multiscale permutation entropy of the low-resonance component was calculated. Moreover, the locally linear-embedding algorithm was used for dimensionality reduction to remove redundant information. The multiscale convolution module was constructed to learn the feature information at different time scales. The attention module was used to fuse the feature information and input it into the remaining useful life prediction module for evaluation. The appropriate network structure and parameter configuration were determined, and a multiscale convolutional attention neural network was designed to determine the remaining useful life prediction model. The results show that the method demonstrates effectiveness and superiority in degrading the feature information representation and improving the remaining useful life prediction accuracy compared with other models.