Godambe estimating functions and asymptotic optimal inference

Godambe (1985) introduced a class of optimum estimating functions which can be regarded as a generalization of quasilikelihood score functions. The “optimality” established by Godambe (1985) within a certain class is for estimating functions and it is based on finite samples. The question that arises naturally is what (if any) asymptotic optimality properties do the estimators and tests based on optimum estimating functions possess. In this paper, we establish, via presenting a convolution theorem, asymptotic optimality of estimators and tests obtained from Godambe optimum estimating functions. It is noted that we do not require the knowledge of the likelihood function.     

Multivariate logistic regression with incomplete covariate and auxiliary information

In this article, we propose and explore a multivariate logistic regression model for analyzing multiple binary outcomes with incomplete covariate data where auxiliary information is available. The auxiliary data are extraneous to the regression model of interest but predictive of the covariate with missing data. Horton and Laird [N.J. Horton, N.M. Laird, Maximum likelihood analysis of logistic regression models with incomplete covariate data and auxiliary information, Biometrics 57 (2001) 34–42] describe how the auxiliary information can be incorporated into a regression model for a single binary outcome with missing covariates, and hence the efficiency of the regression estimators can be improved. We consider extending the method of [9] to the case of a multivariate logistic regression model for multiple correlated outcomes, and with missing covariates and completely observed auxiliary information. We demonstrate that in the case of moderate to strong associations among the multiple outcomes, one can achieve considerable gains in efficiency from estimators in a multivariate model as compared to the marginal estimators of the same parameters.     

Existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models

In this paper, we study the existence of the uniformly minimum risk equivariant (UMRE) estimators of parameters in a class of normal linear models, which include the normal variance components model, the growth curve model, the extended growth curve model, and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, and so on. The necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of UMRE estimators of the estimable linear functions of regression coefficients, the covariance matrixV and (trV)^α, where α > 0 is known, in the models under an affine group of transformations for quadratic losses and matrix losses, respectively. Under the (extended) growth curve model and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model, the conclusions given in literature for estimating regression coefficients can be derived by applying the general results in this paper, and the sufficient conditions for non-existence of UMRE estimators ofV and tr(V) are expanded to be necessary and sufficient conditions. In addition, the necessary and sufficient conditions that there exist UMRE estimators of parameters in the variance components model are obtained for the first time.     

Determining the velocity of sound in waveguides

Least-squares estimators are constructed for wavenumbers defined in parametric form. Consistency of these estimators is investigated.Translated from Vychislitel'naya i Prikladnaya Matematika, No. 57, pp. 91–94, 1985.     

On theoretical pricing of options with fuzzy estimators

In this paper we present an application of a new method of constructing fuzzy estimators for the parameters of a given probability distribution function, using statistical data. This application belongs to the financial field and especially to the section of financial engineering. In financial markets there are great fluctuations, thus the element of vagueness and uncertainty is frequent. This application concerns Theoretical Pricing of Options and in particular the Black and Scholes Options Pricing formula. We make use of fuzzy estimators for the volatility of stock returns and we consider the stock price as a symmetric triangular fuzzy number. Furthermore we apply the Black and Scholes formula by using adaptive fuzzy numbers introduced by Thiagarajah et al. [K. Thiagarajah, S.S. Appadoo, A. Thavaneswaran, Option valuation model with adaptive fuzzy numbers, Computers and Mathematics with Applications 53 (2007) 831–841] for the stock price and the volatility and we replace the fuzzy volatility and the fuzzy stock price by possibilistic mean value. We refer to both cases of call and put option prices according to the Black & Scholes model and also analyze the results to Greek parameters. Finally, a numerical example is presented for both methods and a comparison is realized based on the results.     

Sequences of bias-adjusted covariance matrix estimators under heteroskedasticity of unknown form

The linear regression model is commonly used by practitioners to model the relationship between the variable of interest and a set of explanatory variables. The assumption that all error variances are the same, known as homoskedasticity, is oftentimes violated when cross sectional data are used. Consistent standard errors for the ordinary least squares estimators of the regression parameters can be computed following the approach proposed by White (Econometrica 48:817–838, 1980). Such standard errors, however, are considerably biased in samples of typical sizes. An improved covariance matrix estimator was proposed by Qian and Wang (J Stat Comput Simul 70:161–174, 2001). In this paper, we improve upon the Qian–Wang estimator by defining a sequence of bias-adjusted estimators with increasing accuracy. The numerical results show that the Qian–Wang estimator is typically much less biased than the estimator proposed by Halbert White and that our correction to the former can be quite effective in small samples. Finally, we show that the Qian–Wang estimator can be generalized into a broad class of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators, and our results can be easily extended to such a class of estimators.     

A New Family of Estimators for Random Walk Problems

In this paper the weighted uniform sampling technique introducedby Powell & Swann (1966) is extended to random walk problemsand generalized. The family so defined includes, as specialcases, not only weighted uniform estimators, but traditionalunbiased importance sampling estimators and an interesting newbiased importance sampling estimator. Model problem analysisshows that biased importance sampling offers the promise ofuniformly low mean square error over a large spectrum of problemtypes.     

A general ratio estimator and its application in model based inference

A general ratio estimator of a population total is proposed as an approximation to the estimator introduced by Srivastava (1985,Bull. Internat. Statist. Inst.,51(10.3), 1–16). This estimator incorporates additional information gathered during the survey in a new way. Statistical properties of the general ratio estimator are given and its relationship to the estimator proposed by Srivastava is explored. A special kind of general ratio estimator is suggested and it turns out to be very efficient in a simulation study when compared to several other commonly used estimators.The work of this author was supported by AFOSR grant #830080.     

Robust asymptotic state estimation of Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks with mixed interval time‐varying delays

In this paper, the Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy model representation is extended to the state estimation of uncertain Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks with mixed interval time‐varying delays. The main purpose is to estimate the neuron states, through available output measurements such that for all admissible time delays, the dynamics of the estimation error are globally asmptotically stable in the mean square. Based on the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approach, several delay‐dependent robust state estimators for such T–S fuzzy Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks can be achieved by solving a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be easily facilitated by using some standard numerical packages. Finally a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Malliavin Greeks without Malliavin calculus

We derive and analyze Monte Carlo estimators of price sensitivities (“Greeks”) for contingent claims priced in a diffusion model. There have traditionally been two categories of methods for estimating sensitivities: methods that differentiate paths and methods that differentiate densities. A more recent line of work derives estimators through Malliavin calculus. The purpose of this article is to investigate connections between Malliavin estimators and the more traditional and elementary pathwise method and likelihood ratio method. Malliavin estimators have been derived directly for diffusion processes, but implementation typically requires simulation of a discrete-time approximation. This raises the question of whether one should discretize first and then differentiate, or differentiate first and then discretize. We show that in several important cases the first route leads to the same estimators as are found through Malliavin calculus, but using only elementary techniques. Time-averaging of multiple estimators emerges as a key feature in achieving convergence to the continuous-time limit.     

On the number of solutions of norm form equations

In 1985 Evertse and Gyory [5] gave explicit upper bounds for the number of solutions of norm form equations of the form (1.1) under the hypotheses that (i) x m ≢ 0, α 1 = 1, α 2 , ... ,α m-1 are Q-linearly independent and has degree at least 3 overQ( α 1 ..., α m-1 ), or that (ii) the degree of i is at least 3 over Q(α 1 , ..., α i-1 ) for i = 2, m. Later Gyry [9], Evertse [3] and Evertse and Gy}ory [6] derived general upper bounds for arbitrary norm form equations which include the case (ii), but not the case (i). In the present paper we considerably improve the bounds of [5], and we give a further improvement which is valid for all but at most finitely many possible values of the constant term b of the equation. Our bound obtained under the assumption (ii) is better for almost all b than the general bounds of [9], [3] and [6].     

Second derivative estimation using harmonic analysis

Simulation sensitivity analysis is an important problem for simulation practitioners analyzing complex systems. The significance of this problem has resulted in the development of various gradient estimators that can be used to address this issue. Although higher derivative estimators have been discussed concurrently, less attention has been given to assess the efficiency and feasibility of computing such estimators. In this paper, two second derivative estimators are presented. The first estimators, called the HFD estimators, combine harmonic gradient estimators with finite differences second derivative estimators. The resulting hybrid estimators requireO(p) fewer simulation runs to implement compared to the straightforward finite differences approach, wherep is the number of input parameters in the simulation model. The second estimators, called the HA estimators, incorporate harmonic analysis directly, requiring one or two simulation runs to implement, depending on whether a control variate simulation run is made. Expressions for the bias and the variance of the HFD and the HA estimators (with and without variance reduction techniques) are derived. Optimal mean squared error convergence rates are also discussed. In particular, the convergence rates for both these estimators are shown to be the same, though the computational performance of the HFD estimators is better than that for the HA estimators on anM/M/1 queue simulation model. Computational results for the HFD estimators on an (s, S) inventory system simulation model are also included.     

Analysis of a semiparametric mixture model for competing risks

Semiparametric mixture regression models have recently been proposed to model competing risks data in survival analysis. In particular, Ng and McLachlan (Stat Med 22:1097–1111, 2003) and Escarela and Bowater (Commun Stat Theory Methods 37:277–293, 2008) have investigated the computational issues associated with the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method in a multinomial logistic/proportional hazards mixture model. In this work, we rigorously establish the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the resulting nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators. We also propose consistent variance estimators for both the finite and infinite dimensional parameters in this model.     

Estimating the trajectory of dynamic systems with very noisy measurements

A model of observations with strong noise is considered. A method of preliminary transformation of the input observations is proposed, which produces a new model with improved characteristics. Standard estimation algorithms can be applied to this model.Translated from Vychislitel'naya i Prikladnaya Matematika, No. 56, pp. 121–124, 1985.     

Statistical inference in a panel data semiparametric regression model with serially correlated errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown vector β of regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function g(·) for nonlinear component, and unobservable serially correlated errors. The correlated errors are modeled by a vector autoregressive process which involves a constant intraclass correlation. Applying the pilot estimators of β and g(·), we construct estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, the intraclass correlation and the error variance, and investigate their asymptotic properties. Fitting the error structure results in a new semiparametric two-step estimator of β, which is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Asymptotic normality of this new estimator is established, and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix is presented. Furthermore, a corresponding estimator of g(·) is also provided. These results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inference. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of these proposed estimators.     

多元失效时间数据的一般边际半参数危险率模型研究

在生物医学研究中,多元失效时间数据非常常见.该文提出用一般边际半参数危险率回归模型来分析多元失效时间数据.此模型包括了三种常用边际模型:边际比例风险模型、边际加速失效时间模型和边际加速危险模型作为子模型.对于模型中的回归系数,可以通过估计方程的方法来估计它,同时也给出了基准累积危险率函数的估计.得到的估计可以证明是相合的和渐近正态的.     

On the distribution of penalized maximum likelihood estimators: The LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding

We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu [K. Knight, W. Fu, Asymptotics for lasso-type estimators, Annals of Statistics 28 (2000) 1356–1378] and Fan and Li [J. Fan, R. Li, Variable selection via non-concave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 (2001) 1348–1360]. We show that the distributions are typically highly non-normal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rate of these estimators is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than n^−1/2 in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. An impossibility result regarding estimation of the estimators’ distribution function is also provided.     

Lower bound for the oracle projection posterior convergence rate

In Babenko and Belitser (2010), a new notion for the posterior concentration rate is proposed, the so-called oracle risk rate, the best possible rate over an appropriately chosen estimators family, which is a local quantity (as compared, e.g., with global minimax rates). The program of oracle estimation and Bayes oracle posterior optimality is fully implemented in the above paper for the Gaussian white noise model and the projection estimators family.In this note, we complement the upper bound results of Babenko and Belitser (2010) on the posterior concentration rate by a lower bound result, namely that the concentration rate of the posterior distribution around the ‘true’ value cannot be faster than the oracle projection rate.     

Chebyshev Methods for the Numerical Solution of Parabolic Partial Differential Equations in Two and Three Space Variables

Chebyshev methods for the numerical solution of parabolic partialdifferential equations in a region which can be transformedto either a square or a circular cylinder are developed. Theseprocedures are an extension of the method of Knibb & Scraton(1971). To illustrate the technique the solution of the heatconduction equation within an elliptical region is consideredin detail. The Chebyshev method given for this problem requiresconsiderably less computer time than the method of Dew &Scraton (1973). In the case when the space operators commutea highly efficient alternating direction Chebyshev method isgiven.     

Robust and efficient fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution with actuarial applications in view

Due to advances in extreme value theory, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) emerged as a natural family for modeling exceedances over a high threshold. Its importance in applications (e.g., insurance, finance, economics, engineering and numerous other fields) can hardly be overstated and is widely documented. However, despite the sound theoretical basis and wide applicability, fitting of this distribution in practice is not a trivial exercise. Traditional methods such as maximum likelihood and method-of-moments are undefined in some regions of the parameter space. Alternative approaches exist but they lack either robustness (e.g., probability-weighted moments) or efficiency (e.g., method-of-medians), or present significant numerical problems (e.g., minimum-divergence procedures). In this article, we propose a computationally tractable method for fitting the GPD, which is applicable for all parameter values and offers competitive trade-offs between robustness and efficiency. The method is based on ‘trimmed moments’. Large-sample properties of the new estimators are provided, and their small-sample behavior under several scenarios of data contamination is investigated through simulations. We also study the effect of our methodology on actuarial applications. In particular, using the new approach, we fit the GPD to the Danish insurance data and apply the fitted model to a few risk measurement and ratemaking exercises.