An admissibility proof using an adaptive sequence of smoother proper priors approaching the target improper prior

A sufficient condition for the admissibility of generalized Bayes estimators of the location vector of spherically symmetric distribution under squared error loss is derived. This is as strong a condition as that of Brown [L.D. Brown, Admissible estimators, recurrent diffusions, and insoluble boundary value problems, Ann. Math. Statist. 42 (1971) 855–903] under normality. In particular we establish the admissibility of generalized Bayes estimators with respect to the harmonic prior and priors with slightly heavier tails than the harmonic prior. The key to our proof is an adaptive sequence of smooth proper priors approaching an improper prior fast enough to establish admissibility.     

Asymptotic properties of posterior distributions in nonparametric regression with non-Gaussian errors

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions in nonparametric regression problems when the distribution of noise structure of the regression model is assumed to be non-Gaussian but symmetric such as the Laplace distribution. Given prior distributions for the unknown regression function and the scale parameter of noise distribution, we show that the posterior distribution concentrates around the true values of parameters. Following the approach by Choi and Schervish (Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 98, 1969–1987, 2007) and extending their results, we prove consistency of the posterior distribution of the parameters for the nonparametric regression when errors are symmetric non-Gaussian with suitable assumptions.     

Possibility distributions: A unified representation of usual direct-probability-based parameter estimation methods

The paper presents a possibility theory based formulation of one-parameter estimation that unifies some usual direct probability formulations. Point and confidence interval estimation are expressed in a single theoretical formulation and incorporated into estimators of a generic form: a possibility distribution. New relationships between continuous possibility distribution and probability concepts are established. The notion of specificity ordering of a possibility distribution, corresponding to fuzzy subsets inclusion, is then used for comparing the efficiency of different estimators for the case of data points coming from a symmetric probability distribution. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated on common mean and median estimators from identical independent data sample of different size and of different common symmetric continuous probability distributions.     

Bayesian inference using record values from Rayleigh model with application

In this article, based on a set of upper record values from a Rayleigh distribution, Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches have been used to obtain the estimators of the parameter, and some lifetime parameters such as the reliability and hazard functions. Bayes estimators have been developed under symmetric (squared error) and asymmetric (LINEX and general entropy (GE)) loss functions. These estimators are derived using the informative and non-informative prior distributions for σ. We compare the performance of the presented Bayes estimators with known, non-Bayesian, estimators such as the maximum likelihood (ML) and the best linear unbiased (BLU) estimators. We show that Bayes estimators under the asymmetric loss functions are superior to both the ML and BLU estimators. The highest posterior density (HPD) intervals for the Rayleigh parameter and its reliability and hazard functions are presented. Also, Bayesian prediction intervals of the future record values are obtained and discussed. Finally, practical examples using real record values are given to illustrate the application of the results.     

Estimation of a Location Parameter with Restrictions or “vague information” for Spherically Symmetric Distributions

In this article we consider estimating a location parameter of a spherically symmetric distribution under restrictions on the parameter. First we consider a general theory for estimation on polyhedral cones which includes examples such as ordered parameters and general linear inequality restrictions. Next, we extend the theory to cones with piecewise smooth boundaries. Finally we consider shrinkage toward a closed convex set K where one has vague prior information that θ is in K but where θ is not restricted to be in K. In this latter case we give estimators which improve on the usual unbiased estimator while in the restricted parameter case we give estimators which improve on the projection onto the cone of the unbiased estimator. The class of estimators is somewhat non-standard as the nature of the constraint set may preclude weakly differentiable shrinkage functions. The technique of proof is novel in the sense that we first deduce the improvement results for the normal location problem and then extend them to the general spherically symmetric case by combining arguments about uniform distributions on the spheres, conditioning and completeness.     

Exact Inference for Random Dirichlet Means

Two characterisations of a random mean from a Dirichlet process, as a limit of finite sums of a simple symmetric form and as a solution of a certain stochastic equation, are developed and investigated. These are used to reach results on and new insights into the distributions of such random means. In particular, identities involving functional transforms and recursive moment formulae are established. Furthermore, characterisations for several choices of the Dirichlet process parameter (leading to symmetric, unimodal, stable, and finite mixture distributions) are provided. Our methods lead to exact simulation recipes for prior and posterior random means, an approximation algorithm for the exact densities of these means, and limiting normality theorems for posterior distributions. The theory also extends to mixtures of Dirichlet processes and to the case of several random means simultaneously.     

On Bayesian Adaptation

We show that Bayes estimators of an unknown density can adapt to unknown smoothness of the density. We combine prior distributions on each element of a list of log spline density models of different levels of regularity with a prior on the regularity levels to obtain a prior on the union of the models in the list. If the true density of the observations belongs to the model with a given regularity, then the posterior distribution concentrates near this true density at the rate corresponding to this regularity.     

Bayesian non-parametric estimation for age-dependent branching processes

The purpose of this paper is to obtain Bayes estimators for both the offspring and life-length distribution in the context of a Bellman-Harris age-dependent branching process. We take a non-parametric approach by letting the prior random distributions, for the offspring and life-length distributions, be independent Dirichlet processes. Our primary results concern the derivation of Bayes estimators, under weighted squared error loss for each distribution. We also indicate some of their asymptotic properties and briefly discuss the modifications that become necessary when the initial information is such that the prior random distribution cannot be taken to be independent.     

A Paradox Concerning Shrinkage Estimators: Should a Known Scale Parameter Be Replaced by an Estimated Value in the Shrinkage Factor?

When estimating, under quadratic loss, the location parameterθof a spherically symmetric distribution with known scale parameter, we show that it may be that the common practice of utilizing the residual vector as an estimate of the variance is preferable to using the known value of the variance. In the context of Stein-like shrinkage estimators, we exhibit sufficient conditions on the spherical distributions for which this paradox occurs. In particular, we show that it occurs fort-distributions when the dimension of the residual vector is sufficiently large. The main tools in the development are upper and lower bounds on the risks of the James–Stein estimators which are exact atθ=0.     

Bayes minimax estimators of the mean of a scale mixture of multivariate normal distributions

Bayes estimation of the mean of a variance mixture of multivariate normal distributions is considered under sum of squared errors loss. We find broad class of priors (also in the variance mixture of normal class) which result in proper and generalized Bayes minimax estimators. This paper extends the results of Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264] in a manner similar to that of Maruyama [Admissible minimax estimators of a mean vector of scale mixtures of multivariate normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 21 (2003) 69-78] but somewhat more in the spirit of Fourdrinier et al. [On the construction of bayes minimax estimators, Ann. Statist. 26 (1998) 660-671] for the normal case, in the sense that we construct classes of priors giving rise to minimaxity. A feature of this paper is that in certain cases we are able to construct proper Bayes minimax estimators satisfying the properties and bounds in Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264]. We also give some insight into why Strawderman's results do or do not seem to apply in certain cases. In cases where it does not apply, we give minimax estimators based on Berger's [Minimax estimation of location vectors for a wide class of densities, Ann. Statist. 3 (1975) 1318-1328] results. A main condition for minimaxity is that the mixing distributions of the sampling distribution and the prior distribution satisfy a monotone likelihood ratio property with respect to a scale parameter.     

Bayesian robustness under a skew-normal class of prior distribution

We develop a global sensitivity analysis to measure the robustness of the Bayesian estimators with respect to a class of prior distributions. This class arises when we consider multiplicative contamination of a base prior distribution. A similar structure was presented by van der Linde [12]. Some particular specifications for this multiplicative contamination class coincide with well known families of skewed distributions. In this paper, we explore the skew-normal multiplicative contamination class for the prior distribution of the location parameter of a normal model. Results of a Bayesian conjugation and expressions for some measures of distance between posterior means and posterior variance are obtained. We also elaborate on the behavior of the posterior means and of the posterior variances through a simulation study.     

The bias and risk functions of some Stein-rules in elliptically contoured distributions

In this paper, we derive the bias and risk functions of a class of shrinkage estimators of several mean parameter matrices of matrix-variate elliptically contoured distributions. More specifically, we generalize some recent findings in three ways. First, the class of distributions under consideration is more general than the Gaussian distribution case, which is often studied in literature. Second, the uncertain subspace candidate is more general than that considered in literature. Finally, we generalize some recent identities, which are useful in establishing the risk and the bias of matrix shrinkage estimators.     

Loss Estimation for Spherically Symmetrical Distributions

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the quadratic loss of point estimators of a location parameter for a family of spherically symmetric distributions. We compare the unbiased loss estimator of the minimax estimator with a new shrinkage type loss estimator. Conditions on the distributions for the domination of competing estimators are given. It is shown that, in addition to the class of scale mixtures of normal distributions, there exists a more general family for which the domination results hold.     

Interval estimates for posterior probabilities in a multivariate normal classification model

This paper is devoted to the asymptotic distribution of estimators for the posterior probability that a p-dimensional observation vector originates from one of k normal distributions with identical covariance matrices. The estimators are based on training samples for the k distributions involved. Observation vector and prior probabilities are regarded as given constants. The validity of various estimators and approximate confidence intervals is investigated by simulation experiments.     

Estimation of limiting conditional distributions for the heavy tailed long memory stochastic volatility process

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which tends to infinity). Even though extremes of stochastic volatility processes are asymptotically independent (in the sense of extreme value theory), these limiting conditional distributions differ from the i.i.d. case. We introduce estimators of these limiting conditional distributions and study their asymptotic properties. If volatility has long memory, then the rate of convergence and the limiting distribution of the centered estimators can depend on the long memory parameter (Hurst index).     

Minimum distance estimation in linear regression with unknown error distributions

This paper discusses minimum distance (m.d.) estimators of the paramter vector in the multiple linear regression model when the distributions of errors are unknown. These estimators are defined in terms of L₂-distances involving certain weighted empirical processes. Their finite sample properties and asymptotic behavior under heteroscedastic, symmetric and asymmetric errors are discussed. Some robustness properties of these estimators are also studied.     

用于指数可靠性增长模型的一类新的先验分布

该文提出了可用于指数分布产品四种可靠性增长试验方案的一类新的先验分布. 这类先验分布以条件分布形式给出, 它适合可靠性增长试验中的各种情况. 各阶段的条件均值和条件方差的表达式被获得, 先验分布的形式与它们的参数间的关系被讨论. 这些结果有助于与专家意见相结合.本文还给出试验末尾产品可靠性的后验密度, Bayesian估计和Bayesian下限.     

On posterior consistency in nonparametric regression problems

We provide sufficient conditions to establish posterior consistency in nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors when suitable prior distributions are used for the unknown regression function and the noise variance. When the prior under consideration satisfies certain properties, the crucial condition for posterior consistency is to construct tests that separate from the outside of the suitable neighborhoods of the parameter. Under appropriate conditions on the regression function, we show there exist tests, of which the type I error and the type II error probabilities are exponentially small for distinguishing the true parameter from the complements of the suitable neighborhoods of the parameter. These sufficient conditions enable us to establish almost sure consistency based on the appropriate metrics with multi-dimensional covariate values fixed in advance or sampled from a probability distribution. We consider several examples of nonparametric regression problems.     

Distribution estimation with smoothed auxiliary information

Distribution estimation is very important in order to make statistical inference for parameters or its functions based on this distribution.In this work we propose an estimator of the distribution of some variable with non-smooth auxiliary information,for example,a symmetric distribution of this variable.A smoothing technique is employed to handle the non-differentiable function.Hence,a distribution can be estimated based on smoothed auxiliary information.Asymptotic properties of the distribution estimator are derived and analyzed.The distribution estimators based on our method are found to be significantly efficient than the corresponding estimators without these auxiliary information.Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators.     

Quasi-Conjugate Bayes Estimates for GPD Parameters and Application to Heavy Tails Modelling

We present a quasi-conjugate Bayes approach for estimating Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters, distribution tails and extreme quantiles within the Peaks-Over-Threshold framework. Damsleth conjugate Bayes structure on Gamma distributions is transfered to GPD. Posterior estimates are then computed by Gibbs samplers with Hastings-Metropolis steps. Accurate Bayes credibility intervals are also defined, they provide assessment of the quality of the extreme events estimates. An empirical Bayesian method is used in this work, but the suggested approach could incorporate prior information. It is shown that the obtained quasi-conjugate Bayes estimators compare well with the GPD standard estimators when simulated and real data sets are studied. AMS 2000 Subject Classification Primary—62G32, 62F15, 62G09