基于联合作战兵力配置的非合作博弈研究

基于联合作战实体定量分析的作战能力指数组合期望效用,研究了联合作战任务兵力配置问题,建立了二人零和参数博弈模型,并讨论了模型构建的理论依据与算法.     

基于聚类分析的非监督多属性目标分群方法

随着现代战争节奏的加快,以及传感器所产生战场监视数据量的剧增,指挥人员面临着越来越大的认知压力.目标分群作为一种重要的高级数据融合技术,能够减轻指挥员的认知负担,但目前的目标分群算法都需要人为地给出一些参数,且分群的依据较为单一,不能满足联合作战指挥的需要.为解决多属性目标分群问题,首先确定了目标分群问题的描述方式,其次以多目标属性为基础,通过计算相似度和网络最佳分类判定函数,提出了基于层次聚类的非监督目标分群算法,最后给出了算法的实现描述和例子.     

军事情报冲突决策的信号博弈分析

本文用冲突分析理论探讨了军事情报欺骗问题的定量、定性分析方法 ,建立了在不完全信息下信号博弈模型 ;分析了不同指挥能力下的参与者 ,怎样从受骗强度这个参数有效的判断指挥员的“能力”;给出了一简便的评估欺骗方案优劣的数学方法 .     

基于路阻函数的多任务点机动路径规划方法研究

针对复杂路网条件下,多分队多任务点行军时路线难以决策的问题,建立了同时考虑道路服务水平和分队数量的路阻函数;基于该函数的性质,提出了多任务点行军时各分队路径优化规则,构建了多任务点行军时路径规划模型;对比了部队统一机动和各分队自主行进两种规划方式的行程时间,定量说明了指挥员路径规划能力对多任务点行军的影响.为复杂路网条件下多分队、多任务点的机动指挥提供了决策方法和依据.     

基于投资组合理论的战略指挥能力生成模式比较分析

恰当选择战略指挥能力生成模式是提升战略指挥能力的前提和基础.在对战略指挥能力生成模式进行理论分析的基础上,运用投资组合理论和网络层次分析法,构建战略指挥能力生成模式的因果关系模型和内部因素效能模型,分析战略指挥能力生成因素的效能影响系数和权重,并对战略指挥能力的四种主要生成模式进行数值仿真和成本比较分析.     

基于冰山模型的县域电子商务人才评价研究

县域电子商务人才评价不仅有利于县域电子商务人才的培养和使用,更对人才的成长具有导向作用.考虑到县域电子商务领域缺乏科学准确的人才评价体系,基于冰山模型对县域电子商务人才评价展开研究:首先基于冰山模型对县域电子商务人才素质需求进行分析;然后结合分析结果构建了县域电子商务人才评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法为各项指标赋权;最后基于三角模糊数对某县域电子商务企业人才进行评价,验证了所构建评价指标体系的有效性.     

我国军事人才能力素质测评方法研究

围绕我国各类军事人才能力素质的测评,以某部为实证对象,按照总政治部有关人才考评的文件精神和未来信息化战争对人才的要求,构建了军队人才测评指标体系和测评方法,并对当前军队人才培养的主要途径进行了比较分析,研究结果表明,通过构建科学的测评指标体系和测评方法,能够对部队各种人才的能力素质进行科学、定量的评估,为选好用好人才提供科学依据;研究结果也表明,当前军队自行培养人才和委托地方科研院所培养人才的方式各有优劣,需要进行资源、信息等各方面的融合互补,     

基于区间值模糊集的创新型人才素质评价方法

通过总结梳理国内外创新型人才素质特征,提出基于IQ-EQ-AQ的创新型人才素质模型,介绍属性值为区间数的多属性决策方法的工作原理,并应用该方法结合所提出的模型对创新型人才的素质进行评价.     

航空装备战斗损伤概率预测模型研究

装备战场抢修是保持和恢复装备战斗力的重要因素.预测并准确掌握航空装备的损伤概率,有利于作战指挥员和装备保障人员适时而准确的指导战场抢修任务的完成,以保证航空装备的持续作战能力.通过分析航空装备的战伤原因,运用概率分析法构建了航空装备战斗损伤概率预测模型,并提出了模型的改进建议.     

我国人才发展预测与对策

改革开放以来,我国人才总量不断增长,人才素质不断提高,人才结构得到明显改善.本文利用灰色预测模型,按新旧人才标准对我国的人才总量进行了预测;同时,对我国人才发展过程中出现的高层次人才、部分重要行业人才缺口、人才的专业和地区结构问题给出了相应的对策.     

Development of a novel family of military campaign simulation models

Dstl has sponsored the development and use of a family of campaign level models of military operations. The models are required to provide an insight into force structure assessment, procurement decisions and doctrinal developments. The family comprises CLARION (land/air war-fighting), COMAND (maritime/air war-fighting) and DIAMOND (non-war-fighting). The two key features of the family are the core role played by the representation of C3I (command, control, communications and information) and the classification of combat units by their interactions with one another at an aggregated level rather than by treating them as a collection of specific combat platforms.     

Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming

Over the past few years we have developed a number of key components which allow us to capture the effects of command decision-making in simulation models of conflict. One of these key components is the Rapid Planning process, which is based on the psychological construct of naturalistic decision-making. Validating such theoretical approaches and assumptions is an on-going activity which helps build confidence over time that our models and theories are valid within our domain of application, and can be used as the basis of sound advice to our customers in the UK Ministry of Defence. Here we present one piece of that validation; a series of command decision-making games which were analysed using a probit-based statistical approach. In the paper we show that the results of these games gives strong support to the way in which rapid planning captures such decision-making in algorithmic form.     

Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict

There is a need to represent military command and control in closed-form simulation models of conflict, in order to compare investment in such capability with alternative defence investments. This paper considers such representation of military command and control in the context of embodied cognitive science. This means that we represent such processes in terms of both decision-making and resultant behaviour. Previous work leads to the view that such a representation can be captured by a combination of deliberate (top down) planning and rapid (bottom up) planning. We have developed an approach on these lines as a way of representing human decision-making and behaviour in conflict. Here we show, by comparing simulation model results with real conflict situations, that our approach yields emergent force behaviour which is valid and representative. This thus increases our confidence that our representation of command and control in such simulation models is sufficient for our requirements.     

Strategic competitive location: improving existing and establishing new facilities

Competitive facility location models consider two main strategies for increasing the market share captured by a chain subject to a budget constraint. One strategy is the improvement of existing facilities. The second strategy is the construction of new facilities. In this paper we analyse these two strategies as well as the joint strategy which is a combination of the two. All three strategies are formulated as a unified model. The best solution to an individual strategy is a feasible solution to the joint one. Therefore, the joint strategy must yield solutions that are at least as good as the solutions to each of the individual strategies. Based on the results of extensive experiments, we conclude that the increase in market share captured by a chain when the joint strategy is employed can be significantly higher than increases obtained by individual strategies. A branch and bound procedure and a tabu search heuristic are constructed for the solution of the unified model. Both algorithms performed very well on a set of test problems with up to 900 demand points. A total of 62% of the test problems were optimally solved by the branch and bound procedure.     

Computable error bounds of multidimensional Euler inversion and their financial applications

Transform inversion is an efficient approximation procedure in operations research, yet the inversion results are sometimes unstable which calls for comprehensive error analysis. This article proposes a multidimensional Euler inversion (MEI) algorithm with computable error bounds. We design mild sufficient conditions that validate the inversion formula, and provide closed-form upper bounds of the inversion errors. Numerical experiments are conducted to compute the joint probability of default and barrier option prices under complicated stochastic models, and output the associated error bounds.     

Modelling and inference with Conditional Gaussian Probabilistic Decision Graphs

Probabilistic Decision Graphs (PDGs) are probabilistic graphical models that represent a factorisation of a discrete joint probability distribution using a “decision graph”-like structure over local marginal parameters. The structure of a PDG enables the model to capture some context specific independence relations that are not representable in the structure of more commonly used graphical models such as Bayesian networks and Markov networks. This sometimes makes operations in PDGs more efficient than in alternative models. PDGs have previously been defined only in the discrete case, assuming a multinomial joint distribution over the variables in the model. We extend PDGs to incorporate continuous variables, by assuming a Conditional Gaussian (CG) joint distribution. We also show how inference can be carried out in an efficient way.     

基于语言值的变权综合决策方法

给出一种新的语言值乘法和加法运算,同时利用扩展原理、格贴近度和择近原则等理论论证所给运算法则的科学性,在此基础上建立一个基于二元组的纯语言值加权综合决策模型,随后,在语言值与实数集[0,1]之间定义两个转换函数,由此引入语言值效用向量等概念,借助语言值效用向量和实数型状态变权向量导出语言值状态变权向量,进而建立相应的语言值变权公式和变权综合决策模型。     

Invariant discretization of partial differential equations admitting infinite-dimensional symmetry groups

This paper is concerned with the invariant discretization of differential equations admitting infinite-dimensional symmetry groups. By way of example, we first show that there are differential equations with infinite-dimensional symmetry groups that do not admit enough joint invariants preventing the construction of invariant finite difference approximations. To solve this shortage of joint invariants we propose to discretize the pseudo-group action. Computer simulations indicate that the numerical schemes constructed from the joint invariants of discretized pseudo-group can produce better numerical results than standard schemes.     

基于人力资本优势结构的人员选拔方法

针对人员选拔主要依据职称、学历等人力资本外在因素确定评判标准,导致“名本”倾向,并且在方法上忽视不同人员个体内质优势结构差异,提出人员选拔方法。从重能力、重实绩、重民主、重优势出发,以实证研究为依托,构建包含能力与业绩两个维度的评价指标体系;给出人力资本优势结构的概念,构建优势结构群识别模型,提出基于优势结构的民主综合评价法。站在每位候选人的角度,兼顾每位候选人的优势,有助于提高人员选拔的公平性和科学性,体现人本理念。通过算例证明了方法的可行性和有效性。