Uniform Cramér moderate deviations and Berry-Esseen bounds for a supercritical branching process in a random environment

Let \{Z_n,\mathrm{}n\ge \mathrm{0}\}be a supercritical branching process in an independent and identically distributed random environment. We prove Cramér moderate deviations and Berry-Esseen bounds for log(Z_{n+n_{\mathrm{0}}}/Z_{n_{\mathrm{0}}}) uniformly in n_{\mathrm{0}}\in \mathbb{Z},which extend the corresponding results by I. Grama, Q. Liu, and M. Miqueu [Stochastic Process. Appl., 2017, 127: 1255–1281] established for n_{\mathrm{0}}=\mathrm{}\mathrm{0}. The extension is interesting in theory, and is motivated by applications. A new method is developed for the proofs; some conditions of Grama et al. are relaxed in our present setting. An example of application is given in constructing confidence intervals to estimate the criticality parameter in terms of log(Z_{n+n_{\mathrm{0}}}/Z_{n_{\mathrm{0}}}) and n.     

Lower deviations for supercritical branching processes with immigration

For a supercritical branching processes with immigration \{{{\displaystyle Z}}_n\}; it is known that under suitable conditions on the offspring and immigration distributions, Z_n/mⁿ converges almost surely to a finite and strictly positive limit, where m is the offspring mean. We are interested in the limiting properties of P({{\displaystyle Z}}_n={{\displaystyle k}}_n) with {{\displaystyle k}}_n=o(m^n) as n\to \infty. We give asymptotic behavior of such lower deviation probabilities in both Schröder and Böttcher cases, unifying and extending the previous results for Galton-Watson processes in literature.     

Large deviations from a macroscopic scaling limit for particle systems with Kac interaction and random potential

We consider a lattice gas in a periodic d-dimensional lattice of width γ⁻¹, γ>0, interacting via a Kac's type interaction, with range and strength γ^d, and under the influence of a random one body potential given by independent, bounded, random variables with translational invariant distribution. The system evolves through a conservative dynamics, i.e. particles jump to nearest neighbor empty sites, with rates satisfying detailed balance with respect to the equilibrium measures. In [M. Mourragui, E. Orlandi, E. Saada, Macroscopic evolution of particles systems with random field Kac interactions, Nonlinearity 16 (2003) 2123–2147] it has been shown that rescaling space as γ⁻¹ and time as γ⁻², in the limit γ→0, for dimensions d3, the macroscopic density profile ρ satisfies, a.s. with respect to the random field, a non-linear integral partial differential equation, having the diffusion matrix determined by the statistical properties of the external random field. Here we show an almost sure (with respect to the random field) large deviations principle for the empirical measures of such a process. The rate function, which depends on the statistical properties of the external random field, is lower semicontinuous and has compact level sets.     

Large deviations for Brownian motion in a random scenery

We prove large deviations principles in large time, for the Brownian occupation time in random scenery . The random field is constant on the elements of a partition of ^d into unit cubes. These random constants, say consist of i.i.d. bounded variables, independent of the Brownian motion {B_s,s0}. This model is a time-continuous version of Kesten and Spitzer's random walk in random scenery. We prove large deviations principles in ``quenched' and ``annealed' settings.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000):60F10, 60J55, 60K37     

A note on multitype branching process with bounded immigration in random environment

In this paper, we study the total number of progeny, W, before regenerating of multitype branching process with immigration in random environment. We show that the tail probability of |W| is of order t-κ as t→∞, with κ some constant. As an application, we prove a stable law for (L-1) random walk in random environment, generalizing the stable law for the nearest random walk in random environment (see "Kesten, Kozlov, Spitzer: A limit law for random walk in a random environment. Compositio Math., 30, 145-168 (1975)").     

Moderate deviations for stationary sequences of Hilbert-valued bounded random variables

In this paper, we derive the Moderate Deviation Principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables with values in a Hilbert space. The conditions obtained are expressed in terms of martingale-type conditions. The main tools are martingale approximations and a new Hoeffding inequality for non-adapted sequences of Hilbert-valued random variables. Applications to Cramér-Von Mises statistics, functions of linear processes and stable Markov chains are given.     

Large deviations and phase transition for random walks in random nonnegative potentials

We establish large deviation principles and phase transition results for both quenched and annealed settings of nearest-neighbor random walks with constant drift in random nonnegative potentials on Z^d${\mathbb{Z}}^d$. We complement the analysis of M.P.W. Zerner [Directional decay of the Green’s function for a random nonnegative potential on Z^d${\mathbb{Z}}^d$, Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1996) 246–280], where a shape theorem on the Lyapunov functions and a large deviation principle in absence of the drift are achieved for the quenched setting.     

A class of infinitely divisible distributions connected to branching processes and random walks

A class of infinitely divisible distributions on {0,1,2,…} is defined by requiring the (discrete) Lévy function to be equal to the probability function except for a very simple factor. These distributions turn out to be special cases of the total offspring distributions in (sub)critical branching processes and can also be interpreted as first passage times in certain random walks. There are connections with Lambert's W function and generalized negative binomial convolutions.     

Moderate deviations and functional limits for random processes with stationary and independent increments

We first give a functional moderate deviation principle for random processes with stationary and independent increments under the Ledoux's condition. Then we apply the result to the functional limits for increments of the processes and obtain some Csorgo-Revesz type functional laws of the iterated logarithm.     

Large deviations for hitting times of a random walk in random environment on a strip

We consider a random walk in random environment on a strip, which is transient to the right. The random environment is stationary and ergodic. By the constructed enlarged random environment which was first introduced by Goldsheid （2008）, we obtain the large deviations conditioned on the environment （in the quenched case） for the hitting times of the random walk.     

Escape times for branching processes with random mutational fitness effects

We consider a large declining population of cells under an external selection pressure, modeled as a subcritical branching process. This population has genetic variation introduced at a low rate which leads to the production of exponentially expanding mutant populations, enabling population escape from extinction. Here we consider two possible settings for the effects of the mutation: Case (I) a deterministic mutational fitness advance and Case (II) a random mutational fitness advance. We first establish a functional central limit theorem for the renormalized and sped up version of the mutant cell process. We establish that in Case (I) the limiting process is a trivial constant stochastic process, while in Case (II) the limit process is a continuous Gaussian process for which we identify the covariance kernel. Lastly we apply the functional central limit theorem and some other auxiliary results to establish a central limit theorem (in the large initial population limit) of the first time at which the mutant cell population dominates the population. We find that the limiting distribution is Gaussian in both Cases (I) and (II), but a logarithmic correction is needed in the scaling for Case (II). This problem is motivated by the question of optimal timing for switching therapies to effectively control drug resistance in biomedical applications.     

Precise large deviations for widely orthant dependent random variables with dominatedly varying tails

For the widely orthant dependent (WOD) structure, this paper mainly investigates the precise large deviations for the partial sums ofWOD and non-identically distributed random variables with dominatedly varying tails. The obtained results extend some corresponding results.     

A class of risk processes with reserve-dependent premium rate: sample path large deviations and importance sampling

Let (X(t)) be a risk process with reserve-dependent premium rate, delayed claims and initial capital u. Consider a class of risk processes {(X ^ε (t)): ε > 0} derived from (X(t)) via scaling in a slow Markov walk sense, and let Ψ_ε(u) be the corresponding ruin probability. In this paper we prove sample path large deviations for (X ε (t)) as ε → 0. As a consequence, we give exact asymptotics for log Ψ_ε(u) and we determine a most likely path leading to ruin. Finally, using importance sampling, we find an asymptotically efficient law for the simulation of Ψ_ε(u). AMS Subject Classifications 60F10, 91B30 This work has been partially supported by Murst Project “Metodi Stocastici in Finanza Matematica”     

Growth of preferential attachment random graphs via continuous-time branching processes

Some growth asymptotics of a version of ‘preferential attachment’ random graphs are studied through an embedding into a continuous-time branching scheme. These results complement and extend previous work in the literature.     

Large deviations for heavy-tailed random sums of independent random variables with dominatedly varying tails

We prove large deviation results on the partial and random sums Sn = ∑i=1n Xi,n≥1; S(t) = ∑i=1N(t) Xi, t≥0, where {N(t);t≥0} are non-negative integer-valued random variables and {Xn;n≥1} are independent non-negative random variables with distribution, Fn, of Xn, independent of {N(t); t≥0}. Special attention is paid to the distribution of dominated variation.     

Large deviations ordering of point processes in some queueing networks

Given a stochastic ordering between point processes, say that a p.p. N is smooth if it is less than the Poisson process with the same average intensity for this ordering. In this article we investigate whether initially smooth processes retain their smoothness as they cross a network of FIFO ·/D/1 queues along fixed routes. For the so-called strong variability ordering we show that point processes remain smooth as they proceed through a tandem of quasi-saturated (i.e., loaded to 1) M+·/D/1 queues. We then introduce the Large Deviations ordering, which involves comparison of the rate functions associated with Large Deviations Principles satisfied by the point processes. For this ordering, we show that smoothness is retained when the processes cross a feed-forward network of unsaturated ·/D/1 queues. We also examine the LD characteristics of a deterministic p.p. at the output of an M+·/D/1 queue. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Central limit theorems for a branching random walk with a random environment in time

We consider a branching random walk with a random environment in time, in which the offspring distribution of a particle of generation n and the distribution of the displacements of its children depend on an environment indexed by the time n. The environment is supposed to be independent and identically distributed. For A ?, let Z_n(A) be the number of particles of generation n located in A. We show central limit theorems for the counting measure Z_n(·) with appropriate normalization.