Power variation from second order differences for pure jump semimartingales

We introduce power variation constructed from powers of the second-order differences of a discretely observed pure-jump semimartingale processes. We derive the asymptotic behavior of the statistic in the setting of high-frequency observations of the underlying process with a fixed time span. Unlike the standard power variation (formed from the first-order differences of the process), the limit of our proposed statistic is determined solely by the jump component of the process regardless of the activity of the latter. We further show that an associated Central Limit Theorem holds for a wider range of activity of the jump process than for the standard power variation. We apply these results for estimation of the jump activity as well as the integrated stochastic scale.     

Asymptotic behavior of the quadratic variation of the sum of two Hermite processes of consecutive orders

Hermite processes are self-similar processes with stationary increments which appear as limits of normalized sums of random variables with long range dependence. The Hermite process of order 1 is fractional Brownian motion and the Hermite process of order 2 is the Rosenblatt process. We consider here the sum of two Hermite processes of orders q≥1$q\ge 1$ and q+1$q+1$ and of different Hurst parameters. We then study its quadratic variations at different scales. This is akin to a wavelet decomposition. We study both the cases where the Hermite processes are dependent and where they are independent. In the dependent case, we show that the quadratic variation, suitably normalized, converges either to a normal or to a Rosenblatt distribution, whatever the order of the original Hermite processes.     

Wavelet-Type Expansion of the Rosenblatt Process

The Rosenblatt process is an important example of self-similar stationary increments stochastic processes whose finite-dimensional distributions are non-Gaussian with all their moments finite. We show that the Rosenblatt process admits a wavelet-type expansion which is almost surely convergent uniformly on compact intervals and which can be thought as decorrelating the high frequencies. Our wavelet expansion of the Rosenblatt process is different from standard wavelet decompositions used in the wavelet literature. It nevertheless yields natural approximations to the Rosenblatt process, possesses a multiresolution-like structure and can be used for simulation of the Rosenblatt process in practice based on the usual Mallat-type pyramidal algorithm.     

Central limit theorems for multiple stochastic integrals and Malliavin calculus

We give a new characterization for the convergence in distribution to a standard normal law of a sequence of multiple stochastic integrals of a fixed order with variance one, in terms of the Malliavin derivatives of the sequence. We also give a new proof of the main theorem in [D. Nualart, G. Peccati, Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals, Ann. Probab. 33 (2005) 177–193] using techniques of Malliavin calculus. Finally, we extend our result to the multidimensional case and prove a weak convergence result for a sequence of square integrable random vectors, giving an application.     

Almost sure central limit theorems on the Wiener space

In this paper, we study almost sure central limit theorems for sequences of functionals of general Gaussian fields. We apply our result to non-linear functions of stationary Gaussian sequences. We obtain almost sure central limit theorems for these non-linear functions when they converge in law to a normal distribution.     

An approximation to the Rosenblatt process using martingale differences

In this paper we give an approximation theorem for Rosenblatt processes with H>1/2, using martingale differences.     

Limit theorems in the Fourier transform method for the estimation of multivariate volatility

In this paper, we prove some limit theorems for the Fourier estimator of multivariate volatility proposed by Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009) [14] and [15]. In a general framework of discrete time observations we establish the convergence of the estimator and some associated central limit theorems with explicit asymptotic variance. In particular, our results show that this estimator is consistent for synchronous data, but possibly biased for non-synchronous observations. Moreover, from our general central limit theorem, we deduce that the estimator can be efficient in the case of a synchronous regular sampling. In the non-synchronous sampling case, the expression of the asymptotic variance is in general less tractable. We study this case more precisely through the example of an alternate sampling.     

Nonparametric estimation of the local Hurst function of multifractional Gaussian processes

A new nonparametric estimator of the local Hurst function of a multifractional Gaussian process based on the increment ratio (IR) statistic is defined. In a general frame, the point-wise and uniform weak and strong consistency and a multidimensional central limit theorem for this estimator are established. Similar results are obtained for a refinement of the generalized quadratic variations (QV) estimator. The example of the multifractional Brownian motion is studied in detail. A simulation study is included showing that the IR-estimator is more accurate than the QV-estimator.     

Occupation time distributions for the telegraph process

For the one-dimensional telegraph process, we obtain explicitly the distribution of the occupation time of the positive half-line. The long-term limiting distribution is then derived when the initial location of the process is in the range of subnormal or normal deviations from the origin; in the former case, the limit is given by the arcsine law. These limit theorems are also extended to the case of more general occupation-type functionals.     

Almost sure invariance principles via martingale approximation

In this paper, we estimate the rest of the approximation of a stationary process by a martingale in terms of the projections of partial sums. Then, based on this estimate, we obtain almost sure approximation of partial sums by a martingale with stationary differences. The results are exploited to further investigate the central limit theorem and its invariance principle started at a point, the almost sure central limit theorem, as well as the law of the iterated logarithm via almost sure approximation with a Brownian motion, improving the results available in the literature. The conditions are well suited for a variety of examples; they are easy to verify, for instance, for linear processes and functions of Bernoulli shifts.     

Functional limit theorems for generalized quadratic variations of Gaussian processes

In this paper, we establish functional convergence theorems for second order quadratic variations of Gaussian processes which admit a singularity function. First, we prove a functional almost sure convergence theorem, and a functional central limit theorem, for the process of second order quadratic variations, and we illustrate these results with the example of the fractional Brownian sheet (FBS). Second, we do the same study for the process of localized second order quadratic variations, and we apply the results to the multifractional Brownian motion (MBM).     

Limit distributions of V- and U-statistics in terms of multiple stochastic Wiener-type integrals

We describe the limit distribution of V- and U-statistics in a new fashion. In the case of V-statistics the limit variable is a multiple stochastic integral with respect to an abstract Brownian bridge G_Q. This extends the pioneer work of Filippova (1961) [8]. In the case of U-statistics we obtain a linear combination of G_Q-integrals with coefficients stemming from Hermite Polynomials. This is an alternative representation of the limit distribution as given by Dynkin and Mandelbaum (1983) [7] or Rubin and Vitale (1980) [13]. It is in total accordance with their results for product kernels.     

Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics

In the context of statistics for random processes, we prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval [0,T]$[0,T]$ when T→∞$T\to \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the covariation of the increments of the components of a multivariate Hawkes process, when the observations are imposed by a discrete scheme with mesh Δ$\Delta$ over [0,T]$[0,T]$ up to some further time shift τ$\tau$. The behaviour of this functional depends on the relative size of Δ$\Delta$ and τ$\tau$ with respect to T$T$ and enables to give a full account of the second-order structure. As an application, we develop our results in the context of financial statistics. We introduced in Bacry et al. (2013) [7] a microscopic stochastic model for the variations of a multivariate financial asset, based on Hawkes processes and that is confined to live on a tick grid. We derive and characterise the exact macroscopic diffusion limit of this model and show in particular its ability to reproduce the important empirical stylised fact such as the Epps effect and the lead–lag effect. Moreover, our approach enables to track these effects across scales in rigorous mathematical terms.     

Long time behaviour of a stochastic nanoparticle

In this article, we are interested in the behaviour of a single ferromagnetic mono-domain particle submitted to an external field with a stochastic perturbation. This model is the first step toward the mathematical understanding of thermal effects on a ferromagnet. In a first part, we present the stochastic model and prove that the associated stochastic differential equation is well defined. The second part is dedicated to the study of the long time behaviour of the magnetic moment and in the third part we prove that the stochastic perturbation induces a non-reversibility phenomenon. Last, we illustrate these results through numerical simulations of our stochastic model.     

Lagging and leading coupled continuous time random walks, renewal times and their joint limits

Subordinating a random walk to a renewal process yields a continuous time random walk (CTRW), which models diffusion and anomalous diffusion. Transition densities of scaling limits of power law CTRWs have been shown to solve fractional Fokker-Planck equations. We consider limits of CTRWs which arise when both waiting times and jumps are taken from an infinitesimal triangular array. Two different limit processes are identified when waiting times precede jumps or follow jumps, respectively, together with two limit processes corresponding to the renewal times. We calculate the joint law of all four limit processes evaluated at a fixed time t.     

Schilder theorem for the Brownian motion on the diffeomorphism group of the circle

We prove a large deviation principle for flows associated to stochastic differential equations with non-Lipschitz coefficients. As an application we establish a Schilder Theorem for the Brownian motion on the group of diffeomorphisms of the circle.     

Regularly varying multivariate time series

Extreme values of a stationary, multivariate time series may exhibit dependence across coordinates and over time. The aim of this paper is to offer a new and potentially useful tool called tail process to describe and model such extremes. The key property is the following fact: existence of the tail process is equivalent to multivariate regular variation of finite cuts of the original process. Certain remarkable properties of the tail process are exploited to shed new light on known results on certain point processes of extremes. The theory is shown to be applicable with great ease to stationary solutions of stochastic autoregressive processes with random coefficient matrices, an interesting special case being a recently proposed factor GARCH model. In this class of models, the distribution of the tail process is calculated by a combination of analytical methods and a novel sampling algorithm.     

Testing for equality between two copulas

We develop a test of equality between two dependence structures estimated through empirical copulas. We provide inference for independent or paired samples. The multiplier central limit theorem is used for calculating p-values of the Cramér-von Mises test statistic. Finite sample properties are assessed with Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the testing procedure on empirical examples in finance, psychology, insurance and medicine.     

Subsampling tests for variance changes in the presence of autoregressive parameter shifts

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for variance changes in the linear autoregressive processes including AR(p) processes when there are autoregressive parameter shifts. In performing a test, we employ the conventional residual CUSUM of squares test (RCUSQ) statistic. The RCUSQ test is based on the subsampling method introduced by Jach and Kokoszka (2004) [16] to eliminate the influence caused by autoregressive parameter shifts. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the test statistic behaves asymptotically the function of a standard Brownian bridge. We establish the asymptotic validity of this method and assess its performance both theoretically and numerically.