Pareto分布环境因子的估计及其应用

给出了Pareto分布环境因子的定义,讨论了在定数截尾样本下Pareto分布环境因子的极大似然估计和修正极大似然估计,并尝试把环境因子用于可靠性评估中.最后运用Monte Carlo方法对极大似然估计,修正极大似然估计和可靠性指标的均方误差(MSE),进行了模拟比较,结果表明修正极大似然估计优于极大似然估计且考虑环境因子的可靠性评估结果较好.     

无失效数据情形指数分布失效率的E-Bayes估计

提出了一种新的可靠性参数估计方法——E-Bayes估计法.对寿命服从指数分布的产品,在无失效数据情形给出失效率的E-Bayes估计的定义、E-Bayes估计,并在此基础上给出了E-Bayes估计的性质——可靠性参数的E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计的关系.最后,结合发动机的实际问题进行了计算,结果表明提出的方法可行且便于应用.     

基于测试数据的装备贮存可靠性评估

针对无失效数据情形下装备贮存可靠性估计问题,提出了一种利用性能测试数据进行估计的方法.首先利用测试数据估计装备在不同测试时的失效概率,然后利用配分布曲线法估计装备贮存寿命分布函数中的未知参数.由于方法充分利用了装备性能测试数据中所隐含的可靠性变化趋势,使其估计结果具有一定的可信性.     

生长曲线模型的惩罚最小二乘估计

主要考虑了生长曲线模型中的参数矩阵的估计.首先基于Potthoff-Roy变换后的生长曲线模型,采用不同的惩罚函数:Hard Thresholding函数,LASSO,ENET,改进LASSO,SACD给出了参数矩阵的惩罚最小二乘估计.接着对不做变换的生长曲线模型,直接定义其惩罚最小二乘估计,基于Nelder-Mead法给出了估计的数值解算法.最后对提出的参数估计方法进行了数据模拟.结果表明自适应LASSO在估计方面效果比较好.     

基于多层Bayes估计的战略协同网络供应链可靠性的参数估计

在战略协同网络中供应链的可靠性研究中,引进失效信息,对可靠性参数进行了估计,并给出了实证,结果表明本文给出的方法可行.     

爆炸药间隙零门可靠性窗口分析

可靠性窗口的区间长度是爆炸药间隙零门设计过程中重点考虑的问题,它直接影响间隙零门能否成功作用.在固定装药密度和通道截面的情况下,将可靠性窗口问题转化为基于间隙长度的三元响应问题,并把窗口端点的阈值视为随机变量,给出了基于可靠性窗口两个端点的联合响应分布模型.为估计模型的参数,结合得分检验统计量,给出了判断三元响应分布中两阈值变量相关性的准则和模型参数估计方法.为了说明方法的有效性,结合试验数据,利用极大似然估计,给出了一类间隙零门可靠性窗口端点和区间长度的估计结果.     

失效率的综合E-Bayes估计

该文提出了可靠性参数的一种新估计方法综合E-Bayes估计法.在无失效数据情形下给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计的定义,并给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计。在引进失效信息后，给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计，并在此基础上给出了失效率和其它参数的综合E-Bayes估计。最后，结合实际问题进行计算，结果表明该文提出的方法可行且便于应用。     

变环境情形下Weibull分布分组数据的参数估计

本文研究了变环境情形下Weibull分布分组数据可靠性估计的参数估计问题。给出一种基于EM算法的变环境分组数据Weibull分布参数估计方法,所得估计量具有良好的收敛性,模拟结果表明方法的实践可用性。     

失效率的E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计

提出了一种可靠性参数的估计方法—E-Bayes估计法,对寿命服从指数分布的产品,在无失效数据情形,给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计的定义、E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计,并在此基础上给出了E-Bayes估计的性质.最后,结合发动机的实际问题进行了计算,结果表明E-Bayes估计法可行且便于应用.     

生长曲线模型的变量选择

生长曲线模型是一个典型的多元线性模型, 在现代统计学上占有重要地位. 文章首先基于Potthoff-Roy变换后的生长曲线模型, 采用自适应LASSO为惩罚函数给出了参数矩阵的惩罚最小二乘估计, 实现了变量的选择. 其次, 基于局部渐近二次估计, 对生长曲线模型的惩罚最小二乘估计给出了统一的近似估计表达式. 接着, 讨论了经过Potthoff-Roy变换后模型的惩罚最小二乘估计, 证明了自适应LASSO具有Oracle性质. 最后对几种变量选择方法进行了数据模拟. 结果表明自适应LASSO效果比较好. 另外, 综合考虑, Potthoff-Roy变换优于拉直变换.     

纵向数据非参数混合效应模型的一个局部不变估计

非参数核回归方法近年来已被用于纵向数据的分析(Lin和Carroll,2000)．一个颇具争议性的问题是在非参数核回归中是否需要考虑纵向数据间的相关性．Lin和Carroll (2000)证明了基于独立性(即忽略相关性)的核估计在一类核GEE估计量中是(渐近)最有效的．基于混合效应模型方法作者提出了一个不同的核估计类,它自然而有效地结合了纵向数据的相关结构．估计量达到了与Lin和Carroll的估计量相同的渐近有效性,且在有限样本情形下表现更好．由此方法可以很容易地获得对于总体和个体的非参数曲线估计．所提出的估计量具有较好的统计性质,且实施方便,从而对实际工作者具有较大的吸引力．     

A weighted Wilcoxon estimate for the covariate-specific ROC curve

The covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is an important tool for evaluating the classification accuracy of a diagnostic test when it is associated with certain covariates. In this paper, a weighted Wilcoxon estimator is constructed for estimating this curve under the framework of location-scale model for the test result. The asymptotic normality is established, both for the regression parameter estimator and the estimator for the covariate-specific ROC curve at a fixed false positive point. Simulation results show that the Wilcoxon estimator compares favorably to its main competitors in terms of the standard error, especially when outliers exist in the covariates. As an illustration, the new procedure is applied to the dementia data from the national Alzheimer’s coordinating center.     

Plans dʼexpérience pour lʼestimation de la courbe de concentration et de lʼAUC

The problem of interest is to estimate the concentration curve and the area under the curve (AUC) by estimating the parameters of a linear regression model with autocorrelated error process. We introduce a simple linear nonparametric unbiased estimator of the concentration curve and the AUC. We show that this estimator constructed from an appropriate regular sampling design is asymptotically optimal.     

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An empirical study of ICASE learning curves and probability bounds for software development effort

In this paper, we investigate the existence of learning curves in software development. Under the assumption of independent and identical distribution (iid) of programmer’s experience and identical effort-experience learning curve relationship for different programmers, we illustrate the existence of an exponentially decreasing learning curve relationship between a programmer’s effort and his/her ICASE tool experience, and show that the effort-experience relationship is inelastic when a programmer’s ICASE tool experience is low. We analyze the impact of our assumptions on actual software development effort, and propose a tight probability upper bound and a central-limit theorem based probability estimator for estimating the approximate probability that the software development effort will be less than or equal to a certain number. Examples to illustrate the use of the probability estimator are also provided.     

Bezier curve smoothing of the Kaplan-Meier estimator

Estimation of a survival function from randomly censored data is very important in survival analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a very popular choice, and kernel smoothing is a simple way of obtaining a smooth estimator. In this paper, we propose a new smooth version of the Kaplan-Meier estimator using a Bezier curve. We show that the proposed estimator is strongly consistent. Numerical results reveal the that proposed estimator outperforms the Kaplan-Meier estimator and its kernel weighted smooth version in the sense of mean integrated square error. This research is supported by the Korea Research Foundation (1998-015-d00047) made in the program year of 1998.     

Kernel estimators of the ROC Curve with censored data

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are often used to study the two sample problem in medical studies. However, most data in medical studies are censored. Usually a natural estimator is based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator. In this paper we propose a smoothed estimator based on kernel techniques for the ROC curve with censored data. The large sample properties of the smoothed estimator are established. Moreover, deficiency is considered in order to compare the proposed smoothed estimator of the ROC curve with the empirical one based on Kaplan-Meier estimator. It is shown that the smoothed estimator outperforms the direct empirical estimator based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator under the criterion of deficiency. A simulation study is also conducted and a real data is analyzed.     

Integral curves from noisy diffusion MRI data with closed-form uncertainty estimates

We present a method for estimating the trajectories of axon fibers through diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) data that provides theoretically rigorous estimates of trajectory uncertainty. We develop a three-step estimation procedure based on a kernel estimator for a tensor field based on the raw DTI measurements, followed by a plug-in estimator for the leading eigenvectors of the tensors, and a plug-in estimator for integral curves through the resulting vector field. The integral curve estimator is asymptotically normal; the covariance of the limiting Gaussian process allows us to construct confidence ellipsoids for fixed points along the curve. Complete trajectories of fibers are assembled by stopping integral curve tracing at locations with multiple viable leading eigenvector directions and tracing a new curve along each direction. Unlike probabilistic tractography approaches to this problem, we provide a rigorous, theoretically sound model of measurement uncertainty as it propagates from the raw MRI data, to the tensor field, to the vector field, to the integral curves. In addition, trajectory uncertainty is estimated in closed form while probabilistic tractography relies on sampling the space of tensors, vectors, or curves. We show that our estimator provides more realistic trajectory uncertainty estimates than a more simplified prior approach for closed-form trajectory uncertainty estimation due to Koltchinskii et al. (Ann Stat 35:1576–1607, 2007) and a popular probabilistic tractography method due to Behrens et al. (Magn Reson Med 50:1077–1088, 2003) using theory, simulation, and real DTI scans.