Vasicěk随机利率模型下指数O-U过程的幂型期权鞅定价

研究了Vasicěk随机利率模型中一维标准Brown运动与资产价格服从指数Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程中一维标准Brown运动的相关系数为ρ(-1≤ρ≤1)的情形下的幂型期权鞅定价问题.推广了基于Vasicěk随机利率模型下基于Black-Scholes公式的两种幂型期权定价问题.并利用Girsanov定理和等价鞅测度,给出了基于Vasicěk随机利率模型下服从指数Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的两种欧式幂型期权鞅定价公式.     

A Mathematical Analysis of Technical Analysis

In this paper, we investigate trading strategies based on exponential moving averages (ExpMAs) of an underlying risky asset. We study both logarithmic utility maximization and long-term growth rate maximization problems and find closed-form solutions when the drift of the underlying is modelled by either an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or a two-state continuous-time Markov chain. For the case of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck drift, we carry out several Monte Carlo experiments in order to investigate how the performance of optimal ExpMA strategies is affected by variations in model parameters and by transaction costs.     

Vasicek债券定价模型的推广形式

V asicek债券定价模型假定即期利率r(t)遵循O-U过程,利率的长期均值θ为一个常数.对此进行推广,假设θ遵循一个离散跳跃过程,跳跃的次数与幅度由中央银行根据物价指数确定,建立一个新的模型.运用Ito引理和无套利原理给出到期日价值为1的零息票债券的定价公式.     

Pricing catastrophe swaps: A contingent claims approach

In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the catastrophe (cat) swap, a financial instrument which has attracted little scholarly attention to date. We begin with a discussion of the typical contract design, the current state of the market, as well as major areas of application. Subsequently, a two-stage contingent claims pricing approach is proposed, which distinguishes between the main risk drivers ex-ante as well as during the loss reestimation phase and additionally incorporates counterparty default risk. Catastrophe occurrence is modeled as a doubly stochastic Poisson process (Cox process) with mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck intensity. In addition, we fit various parametric distributions to normalized historical loss data for hurricanes and earthquakes in the US and find the heavy-tailed Burr distribution to be the most adequate representation for loss severities. Applying our pricing model to market quotes for hurricane and earthquake contracts, we derive implied Poisson intensities which are subsequently condensed into a common factor for each peril by means of exploratory factor analysis. Further examining the resulting factor scores, we show that a first order autoregressive process provides a good fit. Hence, its continuous-time limit, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process should be well suited to represent the dynamics of the Poisson intensity in a cat swap pricing model.     

Optimal control of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

In this paper, we consider an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in both a finite and a semi-infinite interval. Depending on the form of the cost function, our aim is either to leave the interval as soon as possible or to maximize the time spent in the interval, taking into account the control costs in both cases. The model may represent the current in a simple electrical circuit. Since the exact solutions are in terms of special functions, approximate solutions are given. The deterministic cases are also solved.     

Non-maturing deposits modelling in a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck framework

This paper builds a multivariate Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for the management of non-maturing deposits, that are a major source of funding for banks. The contribution of the paper is both theoretical and operational. On the theoretical side, the novelty of this model is to include three independent sources of randomness in a Lévy framework: market interest rates, deposit rates and deposit volumes. The choice of a Lévy background driving process allows us to model rare but severe events. On the operational side, we propose a procedure to include severe volume outflows with positive probability in future scenarios simulation, explaining its implementation with an illustrative example using Italian banking sector data.     

股价服从指数O-U过程的多点重置期权定价

本文在风险中性定价原则下,得到了股价服从指数O-U(Ornstein-Uhlenbeck)过程的n个重置日期m个执行价格的重置期权定价,又在利率服从扩展Vasicek模型下,得到了n个重置日期m个执行价格的重置期权定价.     

Least squares estimator of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by fractional Lévy processes with periodic mean

We deal with the least squares estimator for the drift parameters of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean function driven by fractional Lévy process. For this estimator, we obtain consistency and the asymptotic distribution. Compared with fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck driven by Lévy process, they can be regarded both as a Lévy generalization of fractional Brownian motion and a fractional generaliza- tion of Lévy process.     

Deviation inequalities,moderate deviation principles for certain Gaussian functionals,and their applications in parameter estimation

In this article, we study the deviation inequalities, moderate deviation principle (MDP) and Berry–Esseen bounds for certain Gaussian functionals arising from the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process without tears. As an application, several asymptotic properties for the minimum distance estimator are obtained. The main methods include the MDP and deviation inequality for multiple Wiener–Itô integrals.     

The Least Squares Estimation for the α-Stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with Constant Drift

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - In this paper, we consider the least squares estimators of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a constant drift...     

Exponential Ergodicity for SDEs Driven by <Emphasis Type="Italic">α</Emphasis>-Stable Processes with Markovian Switching in Wasserstein Distances

In this paper, we consider the ergodicity for stochastic differential equations driven by symmetric α-stable processes with Markovian switching in Wasserstein distances. Some sufficient conditions for the exponential ergodicity are presented by using the theory of M-matrix, coupling method and Lyapunov function method. As applications, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process and some other processes driven by symmetric α-stable processes with Markovian switching are presented to illustrate our results. In addition, under some conditions, an explicit expression of the invariant measure for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is given.     

Optimal proportional reinsurance and investment in a stock market with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

In this paper, we study the optimal investment and proportional reinsurance strategy when an insurance company wishes to maximize the expected exponential utility of the terminal wealth. It is assumed that the instantaneous rate of investment return follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Using stochastic control theory and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, explicit expressions for the optimal strategy and value function are derived not only for the compound Poisson risk model but also for the Brownian motion risk model. Further, we investigate the partially observable optimization problem, and also obtain explicit expressions for the optimal results.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR AN ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESS DRIVEN BY A GENERAL GAUSSIAN NOISE

In this paper, we consider an inference problem for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a general one-dimensional centered Gaussian process(G_t)_t≥0. The second order mixed partial derivative of the covariance function R(t, s) = E[G_t G_s] can be decomposed into two parts, one of which coincides with that of fractional Brownian motion and the other of which is bounded by(ts)^β-1 up to a constant factor. This condition is valid for a class of ...     

MARTINGALE REPRESENTATION AND LOGARITHMIC-SOBOLEV INEQUALITY FOR THE FRACTIONAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK MEASURE

In this paper,we consider the measure determined by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.For such a measure,we establish an explicit form of the martingale r...     

Focker-Planck equation on a manifold. Effective diffusion and spectrum

The main objectives of the present paper are: (i) to construct a proper generalization of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for the case of a smooth Riemannian manifold (also under the action of an external potential field); (ii) to prove a Central Limit Theorem for a certain class of additive functionals, making use of the estimations how fast the process converges to equilibrium; (iii) to investigate spectral properties of the corresponding generator; and (iv) to discuss some geometrical aspects of averaging for this process.     

Optimal closing of a pair trade with a model containing jumps

A pair trade is a portfolio consisting of a long position in one asset and a short position in another, and it is a widely used investment strategy in the financial industry. Recently, Ekström, Lindberg, and Tysk studied the problem of optimally closing a pair trading strategy when the difference of the two assets is modelled by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In the present work the model is generalized to also include jumps. More precisely, we assume that the difference between the assets is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process, driven by a Lévy process of finite activity. We prove a necessary condition for optimality (a so-called verification theorem), which takes the form of a free boundary problem for an integro-differential equation. We analyze a finite element method for this problem and prove rigorous error estimates, which are used to draw conclusions from numerical simulations. In particular, we present strong evidence for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal solution.     

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In this paper, we propose a regime-switching Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) stochastic mortality model with jumps, in whichthe economic and environment conditions are described by a homogenous, finite-state Markov chain. Using the idea of change of measure, we derive an exponential affine form of the fourier transform of a dampened option-type longevity derivative price.     

An insurance risk model with stochastic volatility

In this paper, we extend the Cramér-Lundberg insurance risk model perturbed by diffusion to incorporate stochastic volatility and study the resulting Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty (EDP) function. Under the assumption that volatility is driven by an underlying Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, we derive the integro-differential equation which the EDP function satisfies. Not surprisingly, no closed-form solution exists; however, assuming the driving OU process is fast mean-reverting, we apply the singular perturbation theory to obtain an asymptotic expansion of the solution. Two integro-differential equations for the first two terms in this expansion are obtained and explicitly solved. When the claim size distribution is of phase-type, the asymptotic results simplify even further and we succeed in estimating the error of the approximation. Hyper-exponential and mixed-Erlang distributed claims are considered in some detail.     

Horizontal lift of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process over Riemannian path space

In this paper we give a representation formula for the heat semigroup on adapted vector fields by the horizontal lift of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process over Riemannian path space.     

Random and stochastic disturbances on the input flow in chemostat models with wall growth

In this paper, we analyze a chemostat model with wall growth where the input flow is perturbed by two different stochastic processes: the well-known standard Wiener process, which leads into several drawbacks from the biological point of view, and a suitable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process depending on some parameters which allow us to control the noise to be bounded inside some interval that can be fixed previously by practitioners. Thanks to this last approach, which has already proved to be very realistic when modeling other simplest chemostat models, it will be possible to prove the persistence and coexistence of the species in the model without needing the theory of random dynamical systems and pullback attractors needed when dealing with the Wiener process. This is an advantage since the theoretical framework in this paper is much less complicated and provides us much more information than the other.