Time-cost trade-off via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks

We develop a new analytical model for the time-cost trade-off problem via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks. It is assumed that the activity durations are independent random variables with generalized Erlang distributions, in which the mean duration of each activity is a non-increasing function of the amount of resource allocated to it. Then, we construct a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the first objective is the minimization of the total direct costs of the project, in which the direct cost of each activity is a non-decreasing function of the resources allocated to it, the second objective is the minimization of the mean of project completion time and the third objective is the minimization of the variance of project completion time. Finally, two multi-objective decision techniques, viz, goal attainment and goal programming are applied to solve this multi-objective optimal control problem and obtain the optimal resources allocated to the activities or the control vector of the problem     

Optimal procedures for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem in project networks

We describe two algorithms, based on dynamic programming logic, for optimally solving the discrete time/cost trade-off problem (DTCTP) in deterministic activity-on-arc networks of the CPM type, where the duration of each activity is a discrete, nonincreasing function of the amount of a single nonrenewable resource committed to it. The first algorithm is based on a procedure proposed by Bein, Kamburowski and Stallmann for finding the minimal number of reductions necessary to transform a general network to a series-parallel network. The second algorithm minimizes the estimated number of possibilities that need to be considered during the solution procedure. Both procedures have been programmed in C and tested on a large set of representative networks to give a good indication of their performance, and indicate the circumstances in which either algorithm performs best.     

Optimization models and a GA-based algorithm for stochastic time-cost trade-off problem

In real-life projects, both the trade-off between the project cost and the project completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are considerable aspects for decision-makers. However, the research on the time-cost trade-off problem seldom concerns stochastic environments. Besides, optimizing the expected value of the objective is the exclusive decision-making criterion in the existing models for the stochastic time-cost trade-off problem. In this paper, two newly developed alternative stochastic time-cost trade-off models are proposed, in which the philosophies of chance-constrained programming and dependent-chance programming are adopted for decision-making. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating stochastic simulations and genetic algorithm is designed to search the quasi-optimal schedules under different decision-making criteria. The goal of the paper is to reveal how to obtain the optimal balance of the project completion time and the project cost in stochastic environments.     

Analysis of critical paths in a project network with fuzzy activity times

This paper proposes an approach to critical path analysis for a project network with activity times being fuzzy numbers, in that the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed. The basic idea is based on the extension principle and linear programming formulation. A pair of linear programs parameterized by possibility level α is formulated to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy total duration time at α. By enumerating different values of α, the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed, and the fuzzy critical paths are identified at the same time. Moreover, by applying the Yager ranking method, definitions of the most critical path and the relative degree of criticality of paths are developed; and these definitions are theoretically sound and easy to use in practice. Two examples with activity times being fuzzy numbers of L-R and L-L types discussed in previous studies are solved successfully to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach. Since the total duration time is completely expressed by a membership function rather than by a crisp value, the fuzziness of activity times is conserved completely, and more information is provided for critical path analysis.     

A fuzzy approach for selecting project membership to achieve cognitive style goals

Decision makers select employees for a project to match a particular set of goals pertaining to the multiple criteria mix of skills and competencies needed. Cognitive style influences how a person gathers and evaluates information and consequently, provides skills and competencies toward problem solving. The proposed fuzzy set-based model facilitates the manager’s selection of employees who meet the project goal(s) for the preferred cognitive style. The paper presents background information on cognitive styles and fuzzy logic with an algorithm developed based on belief in the fuzzy probability of a cognitive style fitting a defined goal. An application is presented with analysis and conclusions stated.     

An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments

In project investment decisions, it is often assumed that estimated values of project parameters are certain and they would not deviate by the time. However, project parameters normally change during a life cycle of the project. Therefore, an existence of a deviation or gap between forecasted values and actual values is inevitable. Because of the uncertainty of the future, forecasting the true and exact values of project parameters is almost impossible. In this study, an integrated decision support approach based on simulation and fuzzy set theory is proposed for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. This approach determines the risk levels of the projects and helps investors to make investment decisions. In the scope of the study, a flowchart is presented to guide to decision maker in different situations of information uncertainty that belongs to project parameter values. Via this flowchart, the values of project parameters can be chosen depending on how they are determined (deterministic, stochastic or fuzzy) by project analyst. Besides, calculating and analyzing the project risk in all possible situations would be easier. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the application of this approach.     

Analysis of maximum total return in the continuous knapsack problem with fuzzy object weights

This paper proposes a parametric programming approach to analyze the fuzzy maximum total return in the continuous knapsack problem with fuzzy objective weights, in that the membership function of the maximum total return is constructed. The idea is based on Zadeh’s extension principle, α-cut representation, and the duality theorem of linear programming. A pair of linear programs parameterized by possibility level α is formulated to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy maximum total return at α, through which the membership function of the maximum total return is constructed. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure, an example studied by the previous studies is investigated successfully. Since the fuzzy maximum total return is completely expressed by a membership function rather than by a crisp value reported in previous studies, the fuzziness of object weights is conserved completely, and more information is provided for making decisions in real-world resource allocation applications. The generalization of the proposed approach for other types of knapsack problems is also straightforward.     

A fuzzy approach to the transportation problem

The transportation problem with fuzzy supply values of the deliverers and with fuzzy demand values of the receivers is analysed. For the solution of the problem the technique of parametric programming is used. This makes it possible to obtain not only the maximizing solution (according to the Bellman-Zadeh criterion) but also other alternatives close to the optimal solution.     

A simple approach to fuzzy critical path analysis in project networks

This paper develops a simple approach to critical path analysis in a project network with activity times being fuzzy numbers. The idea is based on the linear programming (LP) formulation and fuzzy number ranking method. The fuzzy critical path problem is formulated as an LP model with fuzzy coefficients of the objective function, and then on the basis of properties of linearity and additivity, the Yager’s ranking method is adopted to transform the fuzzy LP formulation to the crisp one which can be solved by using the conventional streamlined solution methods. Consequently, the critical path and total duration time can be obtained from the derived optimal solution. Moreover, in this paper we also define the most critical path and the relative path degree of criticality, which are theoretically sound and easy to use in practice. An example discussed in some previous studies illustrates that the proposed approach is able to find the most critical path, which is proved to be the same as that derived from an exhausted comparison of all possible paths. The proposed approach is very simple to apply, and it is not require knowing the explicit form of the membership functions of the fuzzy activity times.     

Experimental evaluation of simulated annealing algorithms for the time-cost trade-off problem

This paper evaluates variants of a simulated annealing algorithm which solve the total cost minimization problem in activity networks in the case that discrete time-cost execution modes are allowed on the project activities. This problem is a special case of the well known discrete time-cost trade-off problem (DTCTP). Based on a sample of randomly generated activity networks, formal tests of statistical significance are utilized to test both the quality of solutions and the time efficiency of algorithms versus problem factors. A procedure issued from the extreme values statistics is also applied on problem instances in order to determine, on the one hand, the confidence interval estimate of the optimum solution for each algorithm and, on the other hand, when to stop the running of an algorithm.     

A fuzzy goal programming method with imprecise goal hierarchy

Two most widely used approaches to treating goals of different importance in goal programming (GP) are: (1) weighted GP, where importance of goals is modelled using weights, and (2) preemptive priority GP, where a goal hierarchy is specified implying infinite trade-offs among goals placed in different levels of importance. These approaches may be too restrictive in modelling of real life decision making problems. In this paper, a novel fuzzy goal programming method is proposed, where the hierarchical levels of the goals are imprecisely defined. The imprecise importance relations among the goals are modelled using fuzzy relations. An additive achievement function is defined, which takes into consideration both achievement degrees of the goals and degrees of satisfaction of the fuzzy importance relations. Examples are given to illustrate the proposed method.     

Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks

We apply the stochastic dynamic programming to obtain a lower bound for the mean project completion time in a PERT network, where the activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables. Moreover, these random variables are non-static in that the distributions themselves vary according to some randomness in society like strike or inflation. This social randomness is modelled as a function of a separate continuous-time Markov process over the time horizon. The results are verified by simulation.     

Fractional programming approach to fuzzy weighted average

This paper proposes a fractional programming approach to construct the membership function for fuzzy weighted average. Based on the -cut representation of fuzzy sets and the extension principle, a pair of fractional programs is formulated to find the -cut of fuzzy weighted average. Owing to the special structure of the fractional programs, in most cases, the optimal solution can be found analytically. Consequently, the exact form of the membership function can be derived by taking the inverse function of the -cut. For other cases, a discrete but exact solution to fuzzy weighted average is provided via an efficient solution method. Examples are given for illustration.     

Multi-objective time–cost trade-off in dynamic PERT networks using an interactive approach

We develop a multi-objective model for the time–cost trade-off problem in a dynamic PERT network using an interactive approach. The activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables and the new projects are generated according to a renewal process and share the same facilities. Thus, these projects cannot be analyzed independently. This dynamic PERT network is represented as a network of queues, where the service times represent the durations of the corresponding activities and the arrival stream to each node follows a renewal process. At the first stage, we transform the dynamic PERT network into a proper stochastic network and then compute the project completion time distribution by constructing a continuous-time Markov chain. At the second stage, the time–cost trade-off problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimal control problem that involves four conflicting objective functions. Then, the STEM method is used to solve a discrete-time approximation of the original problem. Finally, the proposed methodology is extended to the generalized Erlang activity durations.     

Interactive fuzzy linear programming and an application sample at a textile firm

The purpose of this study is to examine Interactive Fuzzy Linear Programming (IFLP) model by using Zimmermann, Werners, Chanas and Verdegay’s approaches that provide best decision-making under fuzzy environments. In this study, it is used the method which can model the fuzzy structure of the real world and which operates with the decision maker interactively, which aims at obtaining the best solution by continuing this interactiveness in the solution process, which includes fuzziness with more realistic approach to the system. It is showed that the importance of fuzziness concept for IFLP problems, how it is applied on real-world problems and its effects.     

On fuzzy linear programming

Fuzzy multi-objective and fuzzy Goal Programming are discussed in connection with several membership functions which are used to transform the original problem into three equivalent linear programming problems. Existence and uniqueness theorems are given. Fuzzy duality is presented, and an extension of the initial fuzzy problem arises immediately from it.     

Optimal stopping in a fuzzy environment

The problem under consideration is that of optimally controlling and stopping either a deterministic or a stochastic system in a fuzzy environment. The optimal decision is the sequence of controls that maximizes the membership function of the intersection of the fuzzy constraints and a fuzzy goal. The fuzzy goal is a fuzzy set in the cartesian product of the state space with the set of possible stopping times. Dynamic programming is applied to yield a numerical solution. This approach yields an algorithm that corrects a result of Kacprzyk.     

Fuzzy project scheduling problem and its hybrid intelligent algorithm

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers a type of project scheduling problem with fuzzy activity duration times. According to some management goals, three types of fuzzy models are built to solve the project scheduling problem. Moreover, the technique of fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm are integrated to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve the fuzzy models. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

A fuzzy shortest path with the highest reliability

This paper concentrates on a shortest path problem on a network where arc lengths (costs) are not deterministic numbers, but imprecise ones. Here, costs of the shortest path problem are fuzzy intervals with increasing membership functions, whereas the membership function of the total cost of the shortest path is a fuzzy interval with a decreasing linear membership function. By the max–min criterion suggested in [R.E. Bellman, L.A. Zade, Decision-making in a fuzzy environment, Management Science 17B (1970) 141–164], the fuzzy shortest path problem can be treated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. We show that this problem can be simplified into a bi-level programming problem that is very solvable. Here, we propose an efficient algorithm, based on the parametric shortest path problem for solving the bi-level programming problem. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate our proposed algorithm.